Americans Have Been Taken Hostage
Dylan Ratigan hosts the show Morning Meeting with Dylan Ratigan, which airs weekday mornings from 9 to 11 A.M. ET. Ratigan was most recently anchor and co-creator of CNBC’s Fast Money, co-anchor of CNBC’s Closing Bell, and has also been a regular contributor to MSNBC’s Morning Joe. Prior to joining CNBC, Ratigan served as a Global Managing Editor at Bloomberg News until March 2003.
~~~
The American people have been taken hostage to a broken system.
It is a system that remains in place to this day.
A system where bank lobbyists have been spending in record numbers to make sure it stays that way.
A system that corrupts the most basic principles of competition and fair play, principles upon which this country was built.
It is a system that so far has forced the taxpayer to provide the banks with the use of $14 trillion from the Federal Reserve, much of the $7 trillion outstanding at the US Treasury and $2.3 trillion at the FDIC.
A system partially built by the very people who currently advise our President, run our Treasury Department and are charged with its reform.
And most stunningly — it is a system that no one in our government has yet made any effort to fundamentally change.
Like health care, this is a referendum on our government’s ability to function on behalf of the American people. Ask yourself how long you are willing to be held hostage? How long will you let our elected officials be the agents of those whose business it is to exploit our government and the American people at any cost?
As hostages — was there any sum of money we wouldn’t have given AIG?
Why did we pay Goldman Sachs and all the other banks 100 cents on the dollar for their contracts with AIG, using taxpayer money, while we forced GM and others to take massive payment cuts?
Why hasn’t any of the bonus money paid to the CEOs that built this financial nuclear bomb been clawed back?
And more than anything else — why does the US Congress refuse to outlaw the most anti-competitive structure known to our economy, one summed up as TOO BIG TOO FAIL?
It has become startlingly clear that we as a country, and I as a journalist, had made a grave error in affording those who built and ran those banks and insurance companies the honorable treatment of being called capitalists. When in fact the exact opposite was true, these people were more like vampires using the threat of Too Big Too Fail to hold us hostage and collect ongoing ransom from the US Government and the American taxpayer.
This was no unlucky accident. The massive spike in unemployment, the utter destruction of retirement wealth, the collapse in the value of our homes, the worst recession since the Great Depression all resulted directly from these actions.
Even with all that — the only changes that have been made, have been made to prop up and hide the massive flaws on behalf of those who perpetuated them. Still utterly nothing has been done to disclose the flaws in this system, improve it or rebuild it.
Last fall was an awakening for me, as it was for many in our country.
And yet, our Congress has yet to open its eyes, much less do anything about it. In fact conditions have never been better for the banks or worse for the rest of us.
Why is this? Who does our Government work for? How much longer will we as Americans tolerate it? And what, if anything, can we do about it?
As we approach the anniversary of the bailouts for our banks and insurers — and watch the multi-trillion taxpayer-funded programs at the Federal Reserve continue to support banks and subsidize their multibillion bonus pools, we must ask if our politicians represent the interests of America? Or those who would rob America of its money and its future?
As a country, we must demand that our politicians stop serving those whose business models are based on systemic theft and start serving those who seek to create value for others — the workers, innovators and investors who have made this country great.
~~~
Originally published at the Huffington Post; reproduced here by permission of the author.
September 15th, 2009 at 7:03 am
Great stuff — thank you, Dylan
September 15th, 2009 at 7:14 am
I watched this yesterday. I do think Americans are about to see the result of the ill-considered tariff on Chinese tires. And when I say ill-considered, I don’t mean that we should accept whatever playing field exporting countries care to use against us, and we not protest. I mean ill- considered in that this idea of exporting our high-living debt to other countries may result in real problems when we try to turn the equation around. I don’t think this or previous administrations have ever given this the serious thought this problem requires, but we’ve certainly stepped in the protectionist do-do.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601089&sid=asEX1bFTo_xM
Governments Plan Protectionist Measures Threatening Trade Flows
“The number of discriminatory trade measures outnumbers liberalizing trade initiatives by about five to one, Simon Evenett, a coordinator GTA, said by telephone today from St. Gallen, Switzerland. Governments impose about 60 protectionist measures every quarter, he said.”
September 15th, 2009 at 7:17 am
that was a good story link in yesterdays T10
a while back I asked is America the people or the businesses? and may be the general difference between the 2 major parties Ds&Rs
campaign costs/financing – sets in motion that answer too .. the internet may be the answer to that .. but without net-neutrality that will disappear too .. of course ya gotta be able to keep the computer current, dry and warm too
the ultimate answer to the overall question . that is acceptable today …. control over evil firms .. thats just another question
September 15th, 2009 at 7:34 am
Dylan isn’t just another talking head. He’s got a headful of opinion, too. Dylan has a fantastic viewpoint so we need to pay attention. Maybe we should re-think our role as Americans, too.
(nod)
September 15th, 2009 at 7:38 am
having just watched newest interview with my ex-gov Blago .. and to address this issue of power to the people movement .. the herding over the weekend in Washington .. saw a story on one of the networks of the various factions* that are in a rally like that .. described as generally anti-gov and get outta my business .. let free market capitalism rein … so short-sited we’ve been conditioned into
* the factions – pro status-quo healthcare, anti-Ds, pro-gun, pro-white, anti-foreigner running the show, pro-state rights .. government worker/corp. worker/union worker/everybody else unrepresented by factional status, generational, regional, rich/poor …. (what did I miss)
September 15th, 2009 at 7:40 am
You da man Dylan!
“As a country, we must demand that our politicians stop serving those whose business models are based on systemic theft and start serving those who seek to create value for others — the workers, innovators and investors who have made this country great.”
FWIW – I’ve been an innovator all my life (with fresh ideas that have brought benefits to many)…
This crisis has put me on the farm (where I rake and dig the earth like a Sumerian)… I suppose at this point, I’ll just wait for my government checks start rolling in.
That’s an accurate depiction (in real life) of what you describe has produced.
September 15th, 2009 at 8:01 am
When will people get sick of this political nonsense and vow to make a change.
We need to take back this country from the corporations. Spread the word…vote out every incumbent!
If 10% of the population with participate in a vote-out-the-incumbent drive we could make changes. Campaign finance reform and term limits would go a long way toward fixing the problem but the corporations are the ones writing legislation so it will never happen.
We can change this country with our votes. Don’t consider their political party affiliation. The Dems and the Repubs are one and the same “corporate” party. If we throw out every incumbent during the next election you can bet the rest of the worthless bunch will sit up and take notice.
Spread the word on every blog. The internet is the most powerful tool ever available to the common person if we’ll just use it to get organized.
September 15th, 2009 at 8:03 am
Good read. Fell off my seat when I saw CNBC. Now if you can just get that f*cking moron Neale and the rest of the deluded idiots to speak the truth. At least there is one voice of sanity. Funny only the sane stuff makes it to the blogoshpere.
September 15th, 2009 at 8:04 am
@Greg0658
Regardless of what ‘taste’ or ‘distaste’ you have for the factions of the assembly (an observation one may make in ANY type of assembly), the last I checked Americans are still granted that right in this country… The last I checked.
If course they all can’t be expected to be civilized as one such as yourself.
And I suppose the ‘million man march’ of a few decades past should have been organized as 50,000/20 man backyard barbecues where everyone quietly expressed their viewpoint…
Read what Dylan wrote here… He’s a top media personality, and he’s publicly raising his voice… Yet nothing is being done… Perhaps not even “marches”, & “movements” are enough when the people in Washington are so far in the bankers pockets, they can’t hear the cries.
September 15th, 2009 at 8:12 am
“we must demand that our politicians stop serving those whose business models are based on systemic theft ..”
good luck with that demand
September 15th, 2009 at 8:25 am
Vampires? I think “vampire squids” is the term.
September 15th, 2009 at 8:29 am
organized resistance is what’s necessary. what’s needed is a strong, vocal, charismatic leader working for the american people (and no that isn’t obama he’s just another POS politician). such a movement also needs to be well organized and funded. a simple objective such as Vote The Incumbent Out would be easy to explain and measure. if this fails there’s always pitch forks and hand grenades.
September 15th, 2009 at 8:31 am
I hope Dylan and other rational individuals keep raising their voice.
The real issue is the corpocracy. This is where the focus needs to be.
All the other noise is meant to divert attention from the cancer to the pimples.
The march on Washington was more anti-Obama than anything.
For us, the citizens, the best message would be to get rid of most incumbents.
The only problem with that would be how the politicians react to it.
Unfortunately it would be perceived as some type of mandate to further the particular party ideology.
September 15th, 2009 at 8:31 am
“And what, if anything, can we do about it?”
How about, “And what *WILL* we do about it?”
Whatever happened to the principals the country was founded on? We may not need to “refresh the tree of liberty with the blood of tyrant(s) or patriots” but certainly this situation calls for civil disobedience on a massive scale at least, doesn’t it? Our economic freedom has been compromised. How many freedoms have we already given up? How many more are we willing to give up and sit complacent?
If no one is willing to act, then perhaps we deserve what is happening.
[ My personal tree of freedom hierarchy:
The first freedom - freedom of thought.
The second freedom - freedom of expression (i.e. speech)
The third freedom - freedom to prosper (economic freedom)
The fourth freedom - freedom of movement/geography
....
you get the picture, there are several more in my personal "freedom tree" philosophy but these are the main ones]
September 15th, 2009 at 8:33 am
surfed to a channel Dylan is in a box .. Volker can not raise rates to 21% nowdays .. it would break our treasury with our debt .. might be nice for the little people savers in the USA .. can we play favorites?
the T10 yesterday link was on the Huff about the Fed Club and influence
September 15th, 2009 at 8:35 am
good stuff-
Ratigan has literally seen the light- I remember watching his slow transition from market “head cheerleader” to market critic- actually assessing what was happening on Fast Money- and not taking a good view- his days were numbered-
and we get greg0658 critiquing the folks who are up in arms over the bailouts and largess bestowed upon the banks- and why- please explain- doesn’t this get more traction w/ all folks- as it seems an issue that is especially important to the more progressive causes- in that the government has-
-protected the rich over the poor
-protected the powerful over the weak
-allowed secrecy over transparency
that the USG has protected the TBTF banks- would seem to attract the ire of all- but where are the progressives? where is the outrage there?
September 15th, 2009 at 8:37 am
I AGREE COMPLETELY WITH RATIGAN. [I WAS ALSO AT THE DC TEA PARTY AND I CAN TELL YOU THERE WAS A MILLION PEOPLE THERE IF THERE WAS ONE-- MANY ECHOING HIS WRITTEN SENTIMENT]
IT IS, HOWEVER, SAD HE HAD TO PULL AN “I’M A CELEBRITY AND CAN DO WHAT I WANT” RANT ON CNBC’S FAST MONEY AND LANDED ON–OF ALL PLACES–MSNBC. WHY DIDN’T HE GO TO A REAL NEWS ORGANIZATION LIKE BLOOMBERG? I GUESS THE $ WASN’T ENOUGH…
September 15th, 2009 at 8:43 am
ps – 761 posts under Dylans link above .. how many people get to the 25th knowing they can’t do anything else today if going for the total informed .. BR how do you manage this factoid (am I in TBP9.5) 1.1 being the Fed Club?
September 15th, 2009 at 8:47 am
@Rikky
I’m at the point that what you say in a “metaphoric” sense appeals to me…
But think about it…
Obama WAS a strong, vocal, charismatic leader (who promised CHANGE)… The American people assumed it was something that was going to be to their benefit… So far, so EH, at the moment…
I’d say the Dems made a mistake in thinking all the seats they won were some kind of MANDATE…
From a purely statistical perspective, I’d bet that if you removed the:
a) people who wanted OUT of the wars element
b) the black vote
The election would have likely been very tight…
Now to be fair, if you removed the:
a) bigoted white vote
b) the right to lifers
Then it would have swung the other way yet again…
My point is MANDATE… This government thinks because it won (and happens to hold a significant majority of seats at the moment), that it is their RIGHT to do anything they want… When Americans voice their opposition to those policies, they [the politicians] thumb their noses at them… Americans are therefore getting more frustrated by the minute… And this is 10x worse than their opposition to the war…
Meanwhile, the bankers are laughing all the way, because while we are so occupied, they can go on raping & stealing from our Treasury…
September 15th, 2009 at 8:52 am
Greg0658 @7:38,
try this, as a little pipe-filler..
“If we do not believe in freedom of speech for those we despise we do not believe in it at all.”
-Noam Chomsky
http://www.wisdomquotes.com/001917.html
you know, maybe, we’d be, tremendously, better-off, if we concentrated on our similiarities, instead of our differences.
September 15th, 2009 at 8:55 am
Is there a country that mandates voting & has none of the above as a choice? I know Australia mandates voting. I cannot remember the country that gives none of the above as a voting choice & stipulates if that a certain % vote for none there should be a re-election with new candidates.
September 15th, 2009 at 8:57 am
and a follow up to my 8:35 post-
i will tell you why- because politics blinds anyone who is a true believer-
a person who has an open mind is not to married to a political party- and his eyes are open to hypocrisy from wherever it comes
September 15th, 2009 at 9:01 am
Does most of this sound similar to the decline of roman empire as described by Edward Gibbon. Politicians getting corrupted, top echelons of society entrenched in most aspects of power to name a few.
http://www.gutenberg.org/browse/authors/g#a375
http://oll.libertyfund.org/index.php?option=com_staticxt&staticfile=show.php%3Ftitle=1681&Itemid=27
http://books.google.com/books?id=YrJGPLuSHmoC
September 15th, 2009 at 9:06 am
@cvienne
>>I’d say the Dems made a mistake in thinking all the seats they won were some kind of MANDATE…
you are spot on. both of the major parties play on the same field and as such by the same rules of engagement. to explain otherwise would question the very foundations of the system both have concocted over the years. i believe a message of voting the incumbent out with an undeniable focus on the reasons why from enough of the populace would be near undeniable to TPTB. still i wouldn’t expect this to change things all that much.
we Americans have grown far too factious with little to organize us beyond short, simple objectives before we disperse back from whence we came. our government and corporations understand this all too well and keep us busy bickering about where Michael Jackson will be buried or who’s going to win the Biggest Loser contest. in the end i fear its too late to institute any real change without violence. human history has basically proven that.
September 15th, 2009 at 9:14 am
“Now watch what you say or theyll be calling you a radical,
Liberal, fanatical, criminal.
Wont you sign up your name, we’d like to feel you’re
Acceptable, respectable, presentable, a vegetable”
Ratigan is now officially part of the pessimistic fringe that wants to destroy America, he is un-or anti-American.
I hope you don’t have skeletons in your closet Dylan, they’ll be searching and will make you look like a fool.
Anyway…well said.
September 15th, 2009 at 9:18 am
Maybe if we had more voices like Dylan’s in the media, change might have a chance. Right now he’s just a small voice that is easily drowned out.
September 15th, 2009 at 9:24 am
“sign up your name, we’d like to feel you’re
Acceptable, respectable, presentable, a vegetable”
1st name on that list… f411
September 15th, 2009 at 9:29 am
The problem with dissent these days is that networks only invite absolute lunatics to express it.
Left or right just spend their time calling each other nazis or fascists as they even knew what a nazi or a fascist is.
There is no middle ground in this mess of a society and that’s scary.
I don’t think public serving Democrats or Republicans are nazis, I think they are bribed, under-educated, vain and dishonest.
No need for a little square moustache to portray it.
September 15th, 2009 at 9:38 am
To most questions posted in the article I think the answer is simple – people just don’t care if they live a lie as long as it’s a good one.
It’s not that FED or someone within the FED or the financial system or just part of the financial system is corrupt or broken.
It’s the american people in general who had long lost touch with reality and values in life.
This isn’s something that can be fixed by pouring tons of money into it…quite the opposite, in fact.
September 15th, 2009 at 9:41 am
We have drifted back into the comfort zone and we’ve grown comfortable supporting/subsidizing the big banksters when they make bad bets.
If the Fed finally complies with the court order and reveals what they’ve been doing that will piss people off but it would be enough to bring about reforem.
Reform will require another blowup.If the banks have been using their free money and winks & nods from BB to pump up the market then we’ll have a market collapse when they pull the rug out from underneath the 401K crowd.
September 15th, 2009 at 9:43 am
@beaufor
How about this dude as an accurate portrayal?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humpty_Dumpty
September 15th, 2009 at 9:44 am
@ahab re: i will tell you why- because politics blinds anyone who is a true believer
It is more of an indoctrination. Once indoctrinated then it becomes a religion, than a fanaticism.
Once at that stage the true believer seeks only reinforcement of the beliefs.
September 15th, 2009 at 9:44 am
Not everyone is blind to the issues, including one federal judge.
This was posted on ZH yesterday:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/bofaorder914.pdf
September 15th, 2009 at 9:55 am
@cvienne
Brandy boiled with ale and Lewis Carrol.
Thank you
September 15th, 2009 at 10:19 am
As long as we get trapped by idiotic one line solutions like “get rid of the incumbents” Wall Street has nothing to fear. Are people so stupid and lazy the don’t realize that there are incumbants that have tried to stop this, and there are plenty of challengers that have no intentions of doing anything but serving Wall Street. Every incumbent was once a challenger, so why would you think that a congrees full of challengers would be any different. As long as a campaign require huge sums of money from private donors, then the rich will own the majority of elected “representatives”.
To get things changed you have to evaluate every single candidate in your local primaries and local elections, then fight to get the best elected. But oh no that would actually take some effort. The Sheeple cries: “I am and American I demand a solution as simple as taking a pill”. Why don’t all you simplistic morons take a nice little cyanide pill to “make it all go away”, then those who understand that change require more work than snapping your fingers, can get some peace and quiet while we do the hard work.
September 15th, 2009 at 10:20 am
From the link in Tranzor Z’s post:
“Overall, indeed, the parties’ submissions, when carefully
read, leave the distinct impression that the proposed Consent
Judgment was a contrivance designed to provide the S.E.C. with
the facade of enforcement and the management of the Bank with a
quick resolution of an embarrassing inquiry – all at the expense
of the sole alleged victims, the shareholders. Even under the
most deferential review, this proposed Consent Judgment cannot
remotely be called fair.”
Good thing this judge has a lifetime appointment. He’s is obviously not on the “team”. Mark this as the first day that someone in power called bullshit on the whole nefarious fleecing of the American taxpayers, and particularly in this instance, of the BofA shareholders. Truth has an irrepressible desire to bubble up from the cauldron of human disingenuity.
September 15th, 2009 at 10:32 am
Amen, TC. That would be my vote for “money quote” also.
September 15th, 2009 at 10:39 am
dylan,
pretty close to the money. except for the part about “our congress has yet to open its eyes”. i believe they have been corrupted co-conspirators with eyes wide open for a long, long time. when will the indictments finally start? justice needs to set an example with a few perp walks and lots of prison time.
wake up voters.
September 15th, 2009 at 10:41 am
@DeDude
Hard Work? HARD WORK?????
Hard work might better be defined as standing up to the notion of TBTF…
Excerpt (other thread)
“Even the Bank of International Settlements – the “Central Banks’ Central Bank” – has slammed too big to fail. As summarized by the Financial Times:
The report was particularly scathing in its assessment of governments’ attempts to clean up their banks. “The reluctance of officials to quickly clean up the banks, many of which are now owned in large part by governments, may well delay recovery,” it said, adding that government interventions had ingrained the belief that some banks were too big or too interconnected to fail.
This was dangerous because it reinforced the risks of moral hazard which might lead to an even bigger financial crisis in future.”
September 15th, 2009 at 10:49 am
Ratigan’s populist rhetoric can’t mask the simple truth, which is that the economy we have is the economy we voted for. For 30+ years, we have listened to the Milton Friedman/Ronald Reagan/Alan Greenspan siren song of free market fundamentalism. There were competing voices: plenty of people–Democrats and Republicans–said that the US was on an unsustainable course; that an economy that produces nothing and consumes everything must fail; that free trade isn’t a one way street; that investments in education, science, and infrastructure are the rocket fuel of prosperity; and who argued that we can’t pretend that corporations can/should always act in the national interest rather than catering to the bottom line.
Those voices were ignored, if not ridiculed, as echos from a horse and buggy era. “We’re ’smarter’ now,” we were told. “We don’t want those nasty ROTE manufacturing jobs anymore,” some said. Others said “what difference does it make if we produce computer chips or potato chips?” Voters haven’t cared if the American economy is eviscerated as long as they can still afford to charge their Chinese made jet-ski on their credit card financed with Chinese money. They were too busy fighting the culture war and “values issues” to care about trivialities such as the trade deficit and outsourcing. Well, the rooster has come home to roost. The voters sowed the seeds of this disaster, and they alone have reaped the whirlwind.
September 15th, 2009 at 10:55 am
I’m thinking that Barrys observations (I will lump into Phil Grahms pushed thru changes) .. that when and if we get the financial system fixed (without dissolving America) .. that Constitution Ammendments need to be enacted
September 15th, 2009 at 11:01 am
Ratigan for President or at least Treasury Secretary!! Well composed.
September 15th, 2009 at 11:04 am
Jeez f411
When you droll on like that in your lectures, do you read off a tele-prompter like that?
September 15th, 2009 at 11:06 am
“The massive spike in unemployment, the utter destruction of retirement wealth, the collapse in the value of our homes, the worst recession since the Great Depression all resulted directly from these actions.”
Let’s not forget, Mr Ratigan, that the growth in employment, amassing of retirement wealth and the skyrocketing value of your and my homes were all made possible by the same glorious Ponzi system you are now so peevishly complaining about. Sorry but the wealth, as it turns out, was never really there in the first place. Sit down, shut up and eat your bowl of soup, Dylan.
September 15th, 2009 at 11:15 am
@martin66
So I take it you advocate WITH FERVOR a Ponzi system that creates “boom – bust” cycles and ultimately misallocates capital??
September 15th, 2009 at 11:17 am
@martin66
The glorious ponzi scheme from the last few decades has reduced the middle class to crumbs and retirement wealth was usually amassed through working for quite a while.
The grand ponzi of growth didn’t exactly benefit the man on the street, you are overpaying for your home with a stagnant wage , not benefiting from its inflated value.
The wealth is now accumulated by a few while the rest has to borrow to get anywhere.
I’m not advocating for credit, but who the hell could afford a house without borrowing a death sentence amount of money?
So yeah, you can complain about wealth and value, because we have neither and are led to believe we’re enjoying the greatest times of all.
September 15th, 2009 at 11:21 am
@martin66
” Sorry but the wealth, as it turns out, was never really there in the first place.”
—
And the WEALTH you describe, actually does exist to some degree… It has been moved from little in MANY HANDS, to a lot in FEW HANDS…
The result is not much different than about 6 bankers getting together and collectively getting each and every American to owe them 50 to 100 thousand dollars…
Like they snapped their fingers and said “OK we all agree as of now, all of you chumps owe US this amount”… As long as Congress and the President are getting their cut, nothing changes…
September 15th, 2009 at 11:21 am
“The voters sowed the seeds of this disaster, and they alone have reaped the whirlwind.”
What the hell does that mean?
Reap the whirlwind? How does anyone “reap” a “whirlwind”?
“reap”–to cut for harvest with a scythe, sickle or reaper. (American Heritage, Fourth Edition)
“whirlwind”–a rapidly whirling, generally vertical column of air, such as a tornado, dust devil, or waterspout. (American Heritage, Fourth Edition)
So, the voters planted the seeds of a tornado, and then harvested it? Whatever.
It seems that you wish to rail against the opinions of the people in the republic as having caused all this. And of course, the addiction to free money and the worship of the false idols of consumerism certainly contributed. But now, the issue has resolved to the question of who is the windshield and who is the bug. I’d say the plutocracy is the windshield and the voting public is the bug. Unfortunately for the windshield, the bug is getting bigger each day.
September 15th, 2009 at 11:26 am
Cvienne; if you are unhappy with the handeling of the TBTF banks then it is because you failed to get politicians elected that would have handled the financial crisis in a better way. Any idiot can complain and do Monday morning quarterbacking, it takes a real citizen to get out there and work for change. In our current idiocracy there are not a lot of real citizens who will put their money and their some hard work where their mouth is.
September 15th, 2009 at 11:28 am
@The Curmudgeon
lol, I guess we have to figure out how to harvest a windshield next.
September 15th, 2009 at 11:29 am
Agree 100%. I’ve been saying this for a long time now (unpublished).
I believe Obama can be convinced. Who can speak to him without Geithner or Summers being present? Emmanuel?
September 15th, 2009 at 11:29 am
@tc
“Unfortunately for the windshield, the bug is getting bigger each day.”
—
LOL – Better hope the bug doesn’t turn into this dude…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z14NEY-pSfE
September 15th, 2009 at 11:35 am
@DeDude
“if you are unhappy with the handeling of the TBTF banks then it is because you failed to get politicians elected that would have handled the financial crisis in a better way”
—
I didn’t vote for Obama… FWIW – I “wrote in” a candidate…
So I suppose what you’re saying is that it is MY fault that the situation is the way it is (because I failed to get MY GUY elected)… So great, I lost… Meanwhile, I’m trying to behave, and drumming my fingers while the “hard at work” guy YOU voted for is changing the world…
Or I’m not really sure what he’s doing (to be quite honest)…
September 15th, 2009 at 11:37 am
@DeDude
Jeez I was about to correct my spelling on my post, then I realize that the incorrect spelling was from the quote I’d inserted from you…
Aaah the dilemma!
September 15th, 2009 at 11:38 am
Some hostage crisis, eh? Where else can a “hostage” make so much money in the stock market. People keep whining because they either missed the best stock buying opportunity in history or they have a political agenda to hope the markets fall to toss the blame on Obama.
Just buy stocks and make money. It’s not that difficult. Plus we don’t have to hear the nonstop whining.
September 15th, 2009 at 11:44 am
@Wanger
Is that what you REALLY think Harry? God help you…
But thanks for the advice! I’m going to go tell my 95 year old grandmother right now (who lives modestly off a small pension – and the savings she managed to put away going back to Hoover), to just DUMP IT ALL IN STOCKS for a quick 20%…
I’ve gotta stop typing here because I gotta go tell her to call Brian the Broker right now!
September 15th, 2009 at 11:51 am
H Wank- where you been?
you’ve been sorely missed- your market genius is unparalleled-
let me make sure i have it right-
buy- make money
got it!
and who though it could be so easy
September 15th, 2009 at 11:51 am
cvienne: Yes, that’s what I really think. We’re a nation of whiners now. Ratigan rants daily because he, like many doomers, is wrong now. For some reason these guys can’t grasp the notion that the world isn’t falling apart and we’re seeing what is becoming a very sharp recovery.
FWIW, your grandmother should have “Dumped it all in stocks” back in March. She’d be sitting pretty right now. Of course, she’ll still see something like 20% returns by EOY. But keep advising her that the government is corrupt/stupid/elitist, etc. so she can fail to generate more money.
September 15th, 2009 at 11:52 am
@Wanger
“because they either missed the best stock buying opportunity in history or they have a political agenda to hope the markets fall to toss the blame on Obama.”
—
On that note, buying a house in 2002 (with a teaser rate, and with prices rising in unprecedented ways), could have been considered the BEST BUYING OPPORTUNITY IN HISTORY…
Instead, it led us to the crisis which we are presently in the process of trying to unravel…
And do you think that market BEARS want the market to go down because they have a “political agenda”?… Answer: NO… I can’t speak for everyone, but I simply want THE FREE MARKET SYSTEM to work… It clearly doesn’t at the moment because everything is being manipulated…
If Obama ends up GETTING some blame for markets going down (as they eventually will), it’s not going to be because there was “political will” for the markets to go down, it will be because he failed, via policy, to address critical issues…
Instead, he’s simply playing the EXTEND & PRETEND game…
September 15th, 2009 at 11:54 am
JPM Ugly sell-off
http://www.traddr.com/profiles/blogs/jpm-ugly-sell-off-as-as-market
Getting close guys
September 15th, 2009 at 11:54 am
“For some reason these guys can’t grasp the notion that the world isn’t falling apart and we’re seeing what is becoming a very sharp recovery.”
Of course the world isn’t falling apart. It’s held together with federal reserve notes and glue.
September 15th, 2009 at 11:54 am
ahab: I hope you followed your own words and bought, made money and continue to make money. Yes, it’s been that easy. As I keep telling the whiners/doomer/deniers, etc., there’s another 20% sitting there through the EOY to be made. I can’t fathom why some people just get crippled by their baseless negativity and cannot burst through that. Human nature I suppose.
September 15th, 2009 at 11:54 am
@HarryWanger
“People keep whining because they either missed the best stock buying opportunity in history or they have a political agenda to hope the markets fall to toss the blame on Obama”
I didn’t miss any opportunities and Obama is the least of my concerns, however I’ll have to live with this society for a while longer (maybe) and it’s looking ugly and getting worse.
September 15th, 2009 at 11:56 am
manhattanguy: no offense but you’re about the 1000 person to make this prediction daily since May. It’s getting really old. Stop denying and start buying.
September 15th, 2009 at 11:56 am
“Reap the whirlwind” — The sequel to “Inherit the Wind”?
Before the vampire squid article, Matt Taibbi loved to savage Thomas Friedman’s tortured mixed metaphors. I’m sure he’d do the same to Franklin, but I think he saves his energies for higher profile targets.
September 15th, 2009 at 11:57 am
Bernanke: Recession is over
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bernanke-defends-crisis-actions-upbeat-on-growth-2009-09-15
Let’s go party at Harry Wanger’s backyard?
September 15th, 2009 at 11:59 am
@ahab @wanger
No, it’s not going to be that easy for Harry…
The first time I heard Harry say 20%, the market was at 1038 (a couple of weeks ago)… So I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt there…
So let’s do some math Harry… 1038 X 1.2 = 1245…
Should I SELL at 1245? Assuming we get there…
Moreover, should I BUY at 1054?… Should I BUY at 1079?…Should I BUY at 1124?
I want “buy” and “sell” recommendations… Not to hear what happened yesterday.
September 15th, 2009 at 12:03 pm
cvienne: “On that note, buying a house in 2002 (with a teaser rate, and with prices rising in unprecedented ways), could have been considered the BEST BUYING OPPORTUNITY IN HISTORY…”
Terrible, terrible comparison. Your statement is comparing apples with oranges. Pure speculation and stupidity of those buying into it versus a current situation of sustainable growth that is starting to emerge.
“If Obama ends up GETTING some blame for markets going down (as they eventually will), it’s not going to be because there was “political will” for the markets to go down, it will be because he failed, via policy, to address critical issues…
Instead, he’s simply playing the EXTEND & PRETEND game…”
That’s laughable and supports the “failure caucus” theory. I don’t know if you remember but it seemed like the world was melting down about a year ago. Obama gets in office, the tide turns, the economy begins to show signs of life and yet the “failure caucus” won’t acknowledge it. It’s unbelievably laughable.
September 15th, 2009 at 12:04 pm
H Wank-
i have been reaping the whirlwind- sage advice that is-
and your advice of course- unparalleled in the history of investing
September 15th, 2009 at 12:05 pm
@manhattanguy
The “cartoon” to that Bernanke article should be the one from last week where the bear was out of the woods and falling off a cliff…
On the JPM side… The Citi chart has looked very ominous for the past couple days also… (Although that could mean “anything”… JPM is more the true bellweather)…
September 15th, 2009 at 12:07 pm
cvienne: I posted daily our recommendations from July through Labor Day at another large commercial site. There was the same push back as I see here. Guess what, those that followed my daily posts made substantial amounts of money while the others remain waiting for the world to end. It’s silly and naive. Today’s numbers support my position extremely well. How about you?
September 15th, 2009 at 12:09 pm
although- i have to say-
Mr. Wanger’s advice closely follows BR’s recent prognostications on Yahoo-
hmmm . . .
September 15th, 2009 at 12:20 pm
@Wanger
I’m not judging my myself based on your standards…
While your trading recommendations are cute and interesting (and perhaps even right)… They’re NOT the same interpretations that I have…I trade MY book, not the book of someone else…
I see the market as OVERVALUED, and I see the economy going into a DOUBLE DIP recession when either stimulus is removed, new jobs are not created, or a black swan…
I’m into PRESERVING CAPITAL (not betting the “literal” farm, which is paid for, on a 20% that is likely to get wiped out in a heartbeat)…
FWIW – I’ve lost money trying to “time” the markets short on a progressive basis this summer… These aren’t DOUBLE DOWN positions… Instead, they’re “stop outs” (where I’ve lost a little incremental $$ along the way)…
I’ve made some back the other way in the long bond area (mostly – in out of the money call options)…
So net-net, I’m treading water… I still believe the SHORT DOLLAR trade is very crowded, and will benefit if and when that momentum shifts (even if only for a short while)…
I’m very happy with how things stand at the moment…
September 15th, 2009 at 12:47 pm
‘Reap the whirlwind’
It is a Biblical term. The verse is from Hosea 8:7
They sow the wind and reap the whirlwind.
It speaks to how the emptiness of our works, our times and our efforts will only lead to greater emptiness and more violent times. So even our vacuous efforts now lead to a bitter harvest
September 15th, 2009 at 12:49 pm
@TC
“Reap the whirlwind?”–not a Bible fan?
“For they have sown the wind, and they shall reap the whirlwind”–Hosea 8:7
September 15th, 2009 at 12:50 pm
I think I am beginning to get the idea. If people with common sense make up the overwhelming voices of a web site, and your side can’t sell enough rose-colored glasses, then you send players from your side to have a daily counterpoint on those same websites. OK. I see it.
Next problem?
September 15th, 2009 at 12:52 pm
Whoooaaa dudes, Yesterday the market opened down by about 1% and that is when Uncle Harry dug out his buggy board and headed down to the beach, he jumped on just in time to catch the wave up and we have been partying like it’s 1999 all day long. Uncle Harry is one hella partier. Next we waiting for the idicies to break out and everything will go up 20% for a decade or two, why can’t you guys just throw your common sense out the window and stop paying attention to fundamentals and come buggy boarding with Uncle Harry, little Franky and me. Uncle Harry wouldn’t steer us wrong – Would he?
And Curmudgeon, if you have taken enuff peyote you can most certainly do whatever you wish with a whirlwind.
September 15th, 2009 at 12:53 pm
@Common
Ya beat me to the punch, but like many Bible verses, it’s open to interpretation. To me it means that “little” sins now can grow into huge catastrophes of evil later on.
September 15th, 2009 at 12:54 pm
I think it’s quite clear now (if it wasn’t already) that somebody needs to go on the group ignore list. He has clearly discredited himself as nothing more than a shill without a moral or ethical bone in his body. Why debate with that?
September 15th, 2009 at 12:54 pm
@f411
I should have known you were a bible toter…
You being the one attracted to ‘messiahs’ and all…
September 15th, 2009 at 1:03 pm
@Franklin
I guess you’re right, when you can walk on water and live in a fish, you can reap wind.
September 15th, 2009 at 1:07 pm
I “break wind” (in your general direction)…
Clousseau
September 15th, 2009 at 1:09 pm
Hey little bro franklin411, you always seem to ignore me, but heck mom always did like you best anyway.
So what is a “sin” and how can they be labled as little, medium, or large?
Does that also mean if we do the opposite of sin (Have no clue what that is) that it will grow into huge plumes of goodness?
Seriously a little help here would be great because these things have always confused me.
September 15th, 2009 at 1:10 pm
@cvienne,
Looks like you just made your own whirlwind – peeeeewwwwww
September 15th, 2009 at 1:16 pm
franklin420d: you stated, “why can’t you guys just throw your common sense out the window and stop paying attention to fundamentals and come buggy boarding with Uncle Harry…”
The problem is that the majority here seem to ignore the improving fundamentals for whatever reasons or agendas they possess. The fundamentals are what’s trading this market back to the levels it should reside. Did you see the “fundamentals” today in the excellent economic numbers? Of course, I’m sure they’re “baked/rigged/manipulated, etc.” as they always seem to be to doom squad. Of course when the economic numbers were going down, those weren’t being “baked/rigged/manipulated” were they? Silliness.
September 15th, 2009 at 1:26 pm
Harry – are you for serious? you think market is trading because of “solid fundamentals”. Were you in this planet the last 6 months?
September 15th, 2009 at 1:27 pm
h wanger-
do you see any fundamental problems with the US economy?
also- there would be no reason for a concerted effort for the TBTF banks and the USG to rig bad numbers would there be? unless of course to make them less bad- right?
and there is every reason to make sure the numbers look good- to instill confidence- even if it is bogus-
so the charade can be continued- right?
so your argument is ridiculous- capiche?
September 15th, 2009 at 1:39 pm
Harry – how exactly are fundamentals improving? More importantly, how are they going to continue to improve once all the government stimulus is taken away? Are you suggesting people go back to the spending habits they had three years ago?
This constant politicizing of every issue is becoming tiring though. Can you go even one post without mentioning Obama? Is that what everything boils down to for you? Either support for or against Obama?
September 15th, 2009 at 1:49 pm
Uncle Harry – Thank you, for your reply and I have to admit I did not see it at first and I do not know why no one else notice, but it is boogie board not a buggy board, my apologies.
September 15th, 2009 at 1:51 pm
@Thor
Dude…ahab’s new avatar and you look pretty similar…
SPOOKY
September 15th, 2009 at 1:51 pm
Cvienne; you never get to vote for the perfect candidate unless you are running yourself. And to try influencing politics from outside the two parties is stupid and a waste of time. Instead you work all the way from the first little local primary to try and influence who become the final candidate from one of the parties. Democracy in a country with over 300 million people is about trying to make things less imperfect.
“Stop Denying, Start Bying”. Go get the Beary, Harry. It’s about time we get some optimism thrown into this bear cave
September 15th, 2009 at 1:54 pm
@f411
“To me it means that “little” sins now can grow into huge catastrophes of evil later on.”
Says Ramuses II the Pharaoh…
“So let it be WRITTEN…So let it be DONE”…
September 15th, 2009 at 1:56 pm
Cvienne – Funny you should mention that. I almost took a new pic last week so that we’d look even MORE alike
September 15th, 2009 at 2:01 pm
@DeDude
Now why weren’t YOU in charge of campaign slogans? I can see it now…
“LESS IMPERFECTION WE CAN BELIEVE IN”
or
“YES WE CAN BE LESS IMPERFECT”
For now, I’ll just sit over here in my little corner and forego Harry’s 20%… Instead, I’ll actually buy some long term debt (you know, lend him the money) so that Big O can spend it how he wishes… Maybe he’ll buy a new 82″ flat screen… That would be the best health plan EVER… Just park everyones frail ass in front of the boob tube in their wheelchairs…
After all that, when everyone realizes that the emperor has no clothes… I’ll decide what the next step is…
September 15th, 2009 at 2:03 pm
Thor: You stated: “Harry – how exactly are fundamentals improving? More importantly, how are they going to continue to improve once all the government stimulus is taken away? Are you suggesting people go back to the spending habits they had three years ago?”
Did you see the retail sales number today? Manufacturing? Regarding people going back to the spending habits of three years ago…go look at historic retail sales numbers. You’ll be quite surprised at how quickly we’re getting back to that level. The numbers don’t lie unless you’re of the “baked/manipulated/rigged” crowd. And I hope you’re not that naive and/or ignorant.
September 15th, 2009 at 2:06 pm
ahab: as suspected a member of the “baked/rigged/manipulated” numbers:
“also- there would be no reason for a concerted effort for the TBTF banks and the USG to rig bad numbers would there be? unless of course to make them less bad- right?
and there is every reason to make sure the numbers look good- to instill confidence- even if it is bogus-
so the charade can be continued- right?”
What were you saying when the numbers were going down? We’re they rigged too? Come on!
September 15th, 2009 at 2:10 pm
Speaking of debt, Household and total debt gets released this Thursday for 2nd qtr.
Also when you and someone else both jump out of a plane and the other person is falling at a slower rate. From your perspective it looks like he is going up. In reality you are both still falling.
The great debt bubble is starting to deflate, govt is try to forestall the event by issuing massive amounts of debt. The Macro trend is still a declining rate of growth. The private sector is contracting faster than the govt can inflate.
@ahab, your link to the Roman empire was a really good read.
September 15th, 2009 at 2:11 pm
Cvienne; you BAD. Here comes a nice guy and offer you a free 20% and you just sit there in your corner with your NO face, because it is compliments of the great Obama. Well if you want to get fibo-busted, you get fibo-busted. But let me give you a slogan first “Fibo-busters we can believe in”
September 15th, 2009 at 2:15 pm
@DeDude
Speaking of FIBO…
1054 (which the S&P just hit)… was a very important FIBO number which cvienne was waiting for…
And which, cvienne initiated some NEW shorts on the market… I suppose I’ll get busted out in a couple of days (at a small loss)…
But I calls ‘em as I sees ‘em…
September 15th, 2009 at 2:15 pm
Now people are quoting the Bible. My favorite part is when Rehoboam’s friends told him to tell everybody that his little finger is thicker than Solomon’s harry wanger.
1 Kings 12:10
He that troubleth his own house shall inherit the wind: and the fool shall be servant to the wise of heart.
Proverbs 11:29
Here is wisdom. Let him that hath understanding count the number of the beast: for it is the number of a man; and his number is Six hundred threescore and six.
Revelations 13:18 calling the March 2009 S&P bottom.
I think there are other biblical sections that predicted the Patriots’ awesome victory over the Bills last night as well as unemployment levels in 2010. I’m unable to find them at the moment, however.
September 15th, 2009 at 2:17 pm
Todd: Why do you guys all use the same analogies that have no relevance. “Also when you and someone else both jump out of a plane and the other person is falling at a slower rate. From your perspective it looks like he is going up. In reality you are both still falling.”
Retail sales are up, no matter how you look at them. Not falling less slowly but up. Empire State is up. Not falling less slowly, up. Period. Just objectively look at the facts and release yourself from the negative sphere that swallows up so many traders/investors. They just can’t let go of old positions and ideas even when every indicator is showing the complete opposite of where they stand.
September 15th, 2009 at 2:20 pm
@Transzor Z
I sure wish there were biblical sections that advised NOT to lay the 13 points last night!
As is with our government & banking system… Sometimes it is the BOOKIES who rule outcomes…
September 15th, 2009 at 2:22 pm
Evienne – at the risk of sounding trite, I absolutely advocate capitalism and free markets as an economic system. But these, if one is to believe Schumpeter or Minsky (which I do), lead inevitably to booms and busts where some lesser deserving people reap enormous rewards and some more deserving get screwed. It is not that I in any way advocate that outcome but it seems the price of the system. Minsky in particular seemed on point about how regulatory oversight gets lax when times are good leading to the sort of wild excess and collapse we have been through of late. Would be great to develop a better system but I am afraid the only solution now is renewed regulation – which will in some distant future go to seed and lead to the next great excess and ensuing crisis. Fatalistic? I guess.
Beaufort – no question the middle and lower classes have taken the worst of this. Have since 1982 in fact. If it gets bad enough, it leads to social upheaval – I see the Tea Party demonstrations as a modern equivalent of the William Jennings Bryan populist uprising of the turn of the 20th century. (Marx noted that you can only have revolution with the support of the middle class – so it behooves our political class to get this decline in middle class wealth back on track.)
(Evienne too) For me the problem is not our economic system but the political system that has been totally corrupted by the power of money. The balance of One Man/One Vote vs. One Dollar/One Vote is dangerously tilted in favor of the latter to our great peril.
September 15th, 2009 at 2:23 pm
Harry – I don’t actually get my economic news from the likes of CNBC, Yahoo, or CNN. Do you? You’re not that naive are you? I tend to try to get as much information, from as many different sources as I can, so that I have the broadest idea of what the state of our economy really is. I question every piece of news that comes my way, whether it from this blog, the federal government, or the MSM. I am not naive and ignorant enough to assume that every piece of information I get from every source is 100% factual or not spun. To you, it appears that this means I am a card carrying member of the Failure Caucus. How naive and ignorant is that?
Are things better than they were in January? Yes, absolutely they are. Are we in a state with our economy that could be even remotely described as “good”? Absolutely not. Are we anywhere close to knowing whether or not the economy is going to continue to improve from here after all the government stimulus is removed? Again, no.
Look, you can continue to wander around with rose colored glasses all you want, you can dump all the money you want into the stock market. I, however, am still not convinced that we are out of the woods yet. I’m going to sit back and wait another several months to see what happens before I decide to put money anywhere other than cash. Why is that a problem for you? You seem almost emotionally invested in our opinions.
Let me ask you one final question. Why do you bother to post here? Are you naive and ignorant enough to think that you are somehow going to suddenly bring a ray of light into those of us still stuck in the darkness that is the Party of No? I can only assume, that after being pretty much laughed at and made fun of, you are hopelessly naive and ignorant . . . .
That you continue to post here, given the obvious disdain most of the posters hold for you is very curious indeed.
September 15th, 2009 at 2:25 pm
The bulls seem to be gaining more courage to speak out.
September 15th, 2009 at 2:28 pm
@Wanger
“Retail sales are up, no matter how you look at them. Not falling less slowly but up. Empire State is up. Not falling less slowly, up. Period. Just objectively look at the facts and release yourself from the negative sphere that swallows up so many traders/investors. They just can’t let go of old positions and ideas even when every indicator is showing the complete opposite of where they stand.”
—
My man… TRULY, the only reason I respond to your posts is to entice you to bait you to post more… I’m in the process of compiling my “Harry Wanger Hall of Fame” (as a “cautionary tale”, mind you)…
See, you STILL don’t get it…
I COULD FRIGGIN CARE LESS IF THE MARKET GOES UP ANOTHER 20% FROM HERE…
I don’t want that money… I can sleep better knowing that there are no fundamentals to back that up and that sooner or later we’ll be well below where we are now… Hell, I probably could have said that since 840, or 740 for that matter…
Your “Empire State” indicators don’t tell any story at all… As far as I’m concerned, they’re the same as listening to NAR guys telling me that home prices were going to stay steady for AT LEAST the next decade back in 2005…
September 15th, 2009 at 2:32 pm
Cvienne – that’s the thing that is most curious to me. Why Wanger is so set on trying to convince all of us of his opinion. Most of us don’t agree with him. Seriously, any sane person would see this and move on. Why anyone would continue to hit their head against a wall over and over and over again is a mystery to me.
I think he’s an alter ego of someone else who posts here. Come on Ahab, fess up!
September 15th, 2009 at 2:37 pm
@martin66
“(Marx noted that you can only have revolution with the support of the middle class – so it behooves our political class to get this decline in middle class wealth back on track.)”
WRONG –
The “middle class” (as you describe it), is now seeing a DISTANCING of themselves from the upper class, and an IDENTIFICATION with the poorer class…
Why? Because the “solution” of the crisis is tilted in a way to make the upper class even richer… The poorer class sees no net change because their spatial difference is “light years” away…
Along with the phenomenon of kicking the MIDDLE CLASS into the LOWER CLASS, “innovation” is stifled (because it is normally from within that bed that innovation takes place – as many of the rich are lazy and just spread their bets around, and the poor simply wait for the scraps all along)…
September 15th, 2009 at 2:38 pm
Thor: I was laughed at a big commercial forum for posting all summer. Heard the same thing. “Why do you bother to post here? Are you naive and ignorant enough to think that you are somehow going to suddenly bring a ray of light into those of us still stuck in the darkness that is the Party of No?”
Well, let me tell you, I posted at a much more bearish site and now receive dozens of emails daily from those who didn’t believe what was happening and wanted more insight into stocks. They’ve done well and changed from clinging to foolish bearishness to actually focusing on the growth in the economic indicators. So while you may think I’m “naive” for posting here, I bet there are many others that respect posts full of factual indicators and not drivel from some doomer blog sites.
September 15th, 2009 at 2:39 pm
@Thor
…no… he’s no ahab…
Even ahab’s ALTER EGO wouldn’t have advised my 95 year old grandmother (as HW did earlier), to dump what was left of her life’s savings in equities this March – oversold market or not)…
September 15th, 2009 at 2:40 pm
cvienne: you conveniently forgot to address the markedly improved Retail Sales numbers. Facts, not B.S.
September 15th, 2009 at 2:40 pm
Harry:
Did we fix the debt issue? Are the economic indicators looking better because of improvement in the job market? We cannot recover by continued borrowing. We have reached a limit. This market upswing is temporary facilitated by borrowing (aka Fed’s printing stash). We are borrowing from the future again (sorry future generation). We have been doing it for the last 50 years. The cause of the crash is the excessive debt. The real economy is not able to carry this debt anymore. We will recover when we pay off debt and still sustain jobs. I for one don’t see that happening within the next few years. So party on while you still can. Also have you asked yourself why insiders are dumping so much last 2 months? That’s right buddy. This market is the greatest sucker rally we have ever seen.
September 15th, 2009 at 2:41 pm
Thor
Because he needs a bunch of greater fools to push the market up to higher levels so he can cash out, I suppose. Or he’s just a typical troll who gets his jollies this way. Or he’s Kudlow’s nephew. Who knows, but I won’t feed the troll.
Although your alter ego theory is intriguing.
September 15th, 2009 at 2:41 pm
@Harry
OK… put it on the line here…
I wasn’t short… But I went a little short at 1054 on a technical basis…
Good call?
September 15th, 2009 at 2:44 pm
cvienne: regarding your call: depends upon your time frame. Daytrade? Swing? What’s your exit?
September 15th, 2009 at 2:44 pm
@Wanger
“cvienne: you conveniently forgot to address the markedly improved Retail Sales numbers. Facts, not B.S”
—
Not true… I addressed it here (the ONLY post on that thread)…
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/09/economic-data-4/#comment-215573
September 15th, 2009 at 2:45 pm
Retail stales was better mostly because of the cash for clunkers pogram. Those new autos were sold to folks who won’t be able to make the payments due to job loss. Unemployment will pick up again in my opinion.
September 15th, 2009 at 2:47 pm
@Wanger
“cvienne: regarding your call: depends upon your time frame. Daytrade? Swing? What’s your exit?”
Don’t post a question with a question (but I’ll bite anyway)…
My EXIT…960…With a STOP right back at 1054…
Satisfied?
September 15th, 2009 at 2:48 pm
manhattanguy: regarding your questions, no we haven’t fixed the debt issue and employment but I’ve addressed that situation over and over at this site. The market is slightly undervalued with these issues in place and will over correct to the upside by about 20% before settling in at its true value which is about 10-12% higher than where we are right now.
September 15th, 2009 at 2:50 pm
Harry “. . . now receive dozens of emails daily from those who didn’t believe what was happening and wanted more insight into stocks.”
And there we have it – he’s looking for validation. Poor guy
September 15th, 2009 at 2:52 pm
@ Harry Wanger:
>Retail sales are up, no matter how you look at them. Not falling less slowly but up. Empire State is up. Not falling less slowly, up.
How much of the data you point is as a result of DIRECT GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION? Do you think that $3B in cash for clunkers might have influenced a positive retail sales number? Perhaps clearing of inventory might encourage restocking and hence the Empire State Index would improve?
Incidentally, retail sales are NOT up in every way. Directly from the census.gov site
http://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.html
“The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $351.4 billion, an increase of 2.7 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, but 5.3 percent (±0.7%) below August 2008″
So, yes retail sales are 2.7% better in August than July, but 5.3% down year over year….
HCF
September 15th, 2009 at 2:54 pm
cvienne: while I think you’ll get stopped out very soon, you will be able to take some profits this week. However, if it were me, I’d book anything before 960. That’s not going to happen. Are you playing long SDS or just short SPY?
September 15th, 2009 at 2:55 pm
@Wanger
“The market is slightly undervalued with these issues in place and will over correct to the upside by about 20%”
—
You haven’t done ANYTHING at this site but drone on about how the market is going 20% higher…
And even if it DOES… as I have stated… WHO FRIGGIN CARES?…
Do you really think the problems of the world are going to be solved at S&P 1200…
Oh yeah… at 1200
- The Iranians are going to cease enriching uranium
- CEO’s are going to hire workers back (just for the hell of it)
- Every American is going to adopt a liberal agenda all at once
- Swine Flu disappears
- Everybody instantly gets healthy
- Debts are erased
Hell, if it came down to that, I’d be buying TODAY!
September 15th, 2009 at 2:58 pm
HCF: I’m not sure of your point here. Retail Sales are up as in better as in improving. Look at historic readings beyond 2008. Also, your CFC reference is of no importance here. Retail sales improved ex-auto rather nicely. How is that a result of “direct government intervention”?
September 15th, 2009 at 2:58 pm
@f411…
My apologies for failing to recognize your lucid analogy to the plight of the people of Israel. Hosea saw their wicked ways and how they had turned from the God that had led them out of bondage, and was admonishing them for their foolishness, which ultimately resulted in the fall of the Northern Kingdom during Hosea’s time.
My question to you though, is this: If the people of America have become wicked by turning from God and turning to false idols (money, housing, capitalism, free markets) and prophets (Friedman, Reagan, et al.), explain their election of Barack Obama as president, whom you obviously believe to be something of a savior from this wickedness.
Hosea (the name means “salvation”) was written only about seven years before the fall of the Northern Kingdom. Is/was Barack our Hosea? Or, just more of the same? Who are the Assyrians in this analogy? Are we soon to be the equivalence of the ten lost tribes of Israel? After the Assyrians conquered them, they vanished from history. Pretty grim stuff for such an optimist as you.
September 15th, 2009 at 3:00 pm
@all
There you have it Ladies & Gentleman… Harry finally made a call beforehand…
cvienne will get STOPPED OUT at 1054 before booking profits at 960…
Note Harry… (If I get stopped out at 1054, it makes no difference whether I was short SPY or long SDS – I lost the commission, that’s it)…
STOP is already in place…
September 15th, 2009 at 3:01 pm
Agree with Cvienne here – All you do Harry is blather on about where you think the market is going to go and how we’re all just naysayers and pessimists because we don’t agree with you. Give us a TECHNICAL reason why we should agree with you. You can’t just expect people to take your word for it because you say it’s so.
Give us some links to some of your past posts on other sites.
September 15th, 2009 at 3:02 pm
cvienne: The points you make are always with us in some form or another. Look at the 70’s, the 80’s – we always face tough issues in this country. You can’t get caught up in that or you’ll just retreat under a rock. Look at what our parents and grandparents faced. Much more, no, incredibly more difficult and challenging times. Did they give up?? Did they whine about it? No, they faced it head on and persevered as we are doing now.
Don’t get caught up in the bunker/hunker down mentality. It will eat you alive.
September 15th, 2009 at 3:04 pm
@Dylan Ratigan
See what happens when you post on TBP?
It starts out like the Carolina – Philadelphia game last week…
But then you realize you have Wanger & f411 as your QB, and, well…
September 15th, 2009 at 3:05 pm
…for you NON-FOLLOWERS of the NFL…
one QB got his ribs broken, and the other threw, like, 6 interceptions…
September 15th, 2009 at 3:06 pm
Evienne: nicely and probably accurately restated as regards Marx. No clue about the innovation point.
September 15th, 2009 at 3:10 pm
@Harry
“Look at what our parents and grandparents faced. Much more, no, incredibly more difficult and challenging times. Did they give up?? Did they whine about it? No, they faced it head on and persevered as we are doing now.”
—
That’s EXACTLY my point… Our grandparents weren’t in debt to the degree that Americans are now… So when they REBUILT – It was from the level ground of REBUILDING… Instead, nowadays Americans are trying to REBUILD from a hole that’s a mile deep…
Secondly, we’re NOT persevering now… Instead, what are we doing? We’re electing officials who dig a deeper hole and tell us that if we keep voting for them, THEY’LL fix the problem… Since we’re so lazy and stupid to do anything for ourselves, we put our trust in them…
It’s not the same world AT ALL…
September 15th, 2009 at 3:14 pm
I do believe I have a diagnosis here.
In Tourette syndrome, compulsive swearing can be uncontrollable and undesired by the person uttering the phrases. Involuntary outbursts, such as racial or ethnic slurs in the company of those most offended by such remarks, can be particularly embarrassing. The phrases uttered by a person with coprolalia do not necessarily reflect the thoughts or opinions of the person.
Yet in this day and age of the internet, Uncle Harry has become the first documented case of ITS – Internet Tourette Syndrome.
September 15th, 2009 at 3:22 pm
Harry – you poor guy. If you can’t see the difference between our grandparents generation and the boomers, or how very different our situation is now than it was in the 1930’s then there is very little hope for you. We are not the same people we were 70 years ago, not even close. We stopped collectively doing things for the benefit of our national interest somewhere back in the 60’s.
Can we as a nation rise to the occasion and work our way through this mess? Sure, but not without the kind of pain our grandparents were faced with in their time. We’ve been gorging on greed for far too long to have things change significantly in only two years. It won’t be until people like yourself, (The Caucus of Greed) have been shut down that we will be on our way. I look forward to that time very much.
September 15th, 2009 at 3:22 pm
franklin420d: Thanks for that assessment as I continue to make more money in this “dying” economy. Talk about Tourette, how about every poster on this forum? Day after day after day, the same nonsense about the “awful” economy for months on end. Now that’s a Tourette case for you.
September 15th, 2009 at 3:23 pm
@Harry
Harry… a question…
When we finally get this famous 20% rise from here (as we may well get)… What do you anticipate to be your reaction?
I mean… are you going to cash out? hold? sell calls? go “all in short”…
Because it would seem to me (by your rhetoric – and by the fact that you are using Obama policies and Empire numbers, and things like that, to support your bullish case)…
Well..
It would seem to me if we are firmly on this “growth path”, WHY STOP AT 20%?
It would seem to me that we could make all time highs fairly soon?
Or does your ‘bullishness’ have an expiration date? And if it does, why not be candid about that and simply say…
“Hey people, the S&P has another 20% in it, but it’s all bullshit”…
But then, you wouldn’t NEED to say that, because most people around here know that already…
September 15th, 2009 at 3:23 pm
…and as I say that… cvienne gets “stopped out”…
OK next level… (we’re looking at Louise Yamada now)
September 15th, 2009 at 3:25 pm
@ Harry:
>Retail Sales are up as in better as in improving.
My point is that retail sales are NOT improving as measured relative to LAST year (down 5.3%). Incidentally, included in retail sales is gasoline, which rose in price 5.3% in August. Taking out autos and gasoline, the sparkling 2.7% month over month number is a much more pedestrian 0.6%.
As for my point about government intervention… In addition to cash for clunkers, the government has it’s fingers on every part of the recovery: backing of money markets, artificially low interest rates, quantitative easing, extension of unemployment benefits, road construction paid for via stimulus program, etc.
Clearly the markets have soared since hitting bottom in March… My question is, do you think the markets will continue to fly once the training wheels come off?
HCF
September 15th, 2009 at 3:35 pm
wow- quite the thread-
h wank Says-
“What were you saying when the numbers were going down? We’re they rigged too? Come on!”
so . . .explain please why numbers would be rigged going down? What would be the motive? Akin to the truthers out there- why?
the only reason numbers/data would be massaged is to make it appear less bad or to appear better than they are- so folks don’t get scared- to create confidence- do you understand?
like the stress tests harry- it was all a big show- for the benefit of those who are more than willing to stick their head’s in the sand and believe-
and you beleive don’t you harry
September 15th, 2009 at 3:39 pm
ahab: The point is, when the economic numbers are going down, all of you believe them, trust they are correct. But any improvement and they must be rigged. Don’t get caught up in that silly game. The numbers are not rigged one way or the other, with the exception of employment which is calculated differently from administration to administration.
September 15th, 2009 at 3:41 pm
Nothing will change.
For Obama, a Chance to Reform the Street Is Fading
http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/107736/wall-street-math-wizards-forgot-a-few-variables.html
September 15th, 2009 at 3:42 pm
cvienne: When we hit 20% higher from last week, I will close out my positions and wait for what will be a 8-10% pullback. Then I will move back in for the steady but much slower growth we will see throughout 2010. In other words, after that pullback, the indices will return much closer to the 8-15% range in 2010.
September 15th, 2009 at 3:46 pm
@Harry “The point is, when the economic numbers are going down, all of you believe them”
How do you know what we believe? Post the SOURCES of your opinions. Do you expect us to believe a word of what you have to say simply because you say it? How naive and ignorant is that?
September 15th, 2009 at 3:56 pm
Thor: Every day I post “sources” and credible numbers not from doomer blogs. Yet, each day, someone says, post sources to back up your posts. Each day I tell them technically, the charts on all indices broke out. That’s a great sign with little resistance above for quite a while. Fundamentally, look at all the improvements in pretty much every economic indicator/report over the past 3 months. It’s not that difficult people.
Bernanke declared the recession over today. I’ll bet he, like many excellent economists, actually realize it ended in May/June. I posted this back in May- the recession has ended and that’s why I continued to buy this market and continue to do so until there is any valid reason otherwise.
September 15th, 2009 at 4:02 pm
h wanger-
i never said they were rigged- i said-
there was no reason to rig #’s to the downside- only to the upside-
logical- no? also- consider-
that the stress tests were a set-up- a lock that that was the case- (and how could they fail when uncle dumbass is there to backstop)
that the TBTF banks were provided with massive $ to drive equity prices up- lock
that bank profits are based on mark to fantasy and zero % rates- lock
that massive sums of money is being created to purchase MBS and Treasuries- lock – (scary shit there)
that tax incentives are being used to juice asset prices and sales (homes and cars)- lock
where would you be harry w/o uncle dumbass helping you make money in spite of your questionable market skills-
also- were all in in 2007 and 2008 harry? do you see any problems then?? are you just happy uncle dumbass is around so wyou can win some of your money back???
market was going up until Oct 2007 harry- why? who the fuck knows- but if i were you i would get out now while you got some of your money back
September 15th, 2009 at 4:09 pm
Harry, I am not adverse to taking risks, in a fantasy football league I choose Michael Vick and Mark Sanchez on purpose and with Donovan McNabb being possibly injured one of my risks might pay off sooner then expected, if Mark Sanchez continues to play like he did last week and an opponents QB under performs or goes down, well I might not be looking too bad. At the same time I am not a fool, I waited until I got the pieces I believed would make a good team before I took those risks.
From what I have read and seen not just here on TBP but elsewhere, there JUST might be a chance this market continues up and up and up…. Not because it deserves to go up, but because things are out of whack. I am not a trader, never have been, I am just some dude.
So my question to you and please either answer it straight away or not at all, WHAT do you buy, what are the criteria for your decisions? I do not want to get into trading (Yet) I want to learn and if you have knowledge that you can pass along I am all ears.
You see most of the people on TBP give out little tidbits of knowledge, but they almost always back it with reasoning and insight. I do not agree 100% with their point of view, but hey it gives me something to think about.
I will not make Michael Vick my first pick or choose players who have no chance of helping my cause, when choosing to purchase what are you looking for?
September 15th, 2009 at 4:11 pm
ahab: thanks for the advice but I’ve heard that since Dow 8k on the way up. Glad I didn’t listen to those “experts”. Also, regarding “uncle dumbass” – I guess you’re referring to Bernanke – he should be considered a hero. Just read that article Barry posted on the front page regarding Minsky. Bernanke is doing exactly what he should be doing. We were fortunate to have the right guy at the right time. Sometimes life aligns itself so that correlation can happen. I for one, am glad it did.
September 15th, 2009 at 4:16 pm
franklin: Technically, the indices continue to take out key levels of resistance = Buy. Fundamentally the economic numbers improve weekly = Buy. Momentum = Very Strong Buy. I’ve continually stated throughout the summer that any pullbacks would be shallow – 2-4% maximum. And that any shallow pullbacks should be bought. Works beautifully. Personally I trade mostly index ETFs: DDM, SSO, QLD, SPY, Q’s and AAPL. I’ve owned them since the 100 area on this way up. Couldn’t believe what a gimme that was. I’ve added on any pullbacks. Hope that helps.
September 15th, 2009 at 4:40 pm
“I guess you’re referring to Bernanke – he should be considered a hero.”
you are a fool- your only interpretation of this country is how it has been- not how it could be- you are the same folks who believed in Greenspan’s nonsense and the deliberate housing bubble that was created to resurrect the market after the dot com crash-
you see no inherent structutral weakness- you care less that the economy is based on credit and spend- you care less that wages have declined in real terms- you care less that savers are being punished w/ zero % interest- you care less that banks pay multi-million $ bonuses while recieving corporate welfare- you care less that the USG is rewarding failed companies-
you are the exact kind of person that sickens me because you are in favor of the very policies that will cause the most pain in the end-
but you’re too stupid to understand that
September 15th, 2009 at 4:59 pm
Ahab – Once again you’ve taken the words right out of my mouth. HW is part of the problem and wants us all to get back on board. The worst part of him as a person, is that he actually sees himself as being patriotic. I’m with you, he makes me sick to my stomach.
September 15th, 2009 at 5:00 pm
Uncle Harry
Yes, it was helpful, straight forward and insightful. However I could tell my wife all day long what a brilliant strategy it was for me to pick Michael Vick and all I would get is a pat on the head and a “ahhh that’s nice dear” She would not understand the risk in that choice, he is a player maligned by the league, his teammates and the fans, he has not played for over two years, he just got out of prison and has had to file for bankruptcy. Very little to the upside, but fans are forgiving and if he does get a chance to play and starts putting up some big numbers all will be forgiven and he will be a star again.
The markets are not what they once were, and in fact there was a chart just yesterday that basically showed them at the EXACT same spot they were 8 years ago, there are millions of people out of or under employed, the private debt owed is astronomical, financial institutions are upping interest rates and imposing fees on people that are using their own money. Everyday Americans are being squeezed and there seems to be little help for them.
I am not saying Michael Vick can not win the Super Bowl ( I hope cvienne gives me 1000 to 1 odds on that) just as I am not saying the start off the March lows, won’t be the start of a fabulous economic recovery (I hope Cvienne gives me a trillion to 1 odds on that) But from my point of view, Michael Vick wins a Super Bowl, before we get sustained and real growth.
What makes you believe this is true economic growth, not just the market, being the market?
September 15th, 2009 at 5:04 pm
Three Cheers for Dylan. Someone has to speak for the sentient minority.
September 15th, 2009 at 5:23 pm
@LB
I think Wanger needs to go on Dylan’s show…
Wanger… understand something… The market going up another 20% isn’t going to make the economy all of a sudden change…
- It’s not going to bring back any more jobs…
and from what I gather all you are is a chart watcher… You see the downward trendline from the ‘07 highs passing the May ‘08 peak and you make the correlation… You see a correlation between the 1,200 level and the pre-Lehman levels…
All fine…
We all see those…
You see it as a target and a further floor… I see it as resistance…
Simple as that…
September 15th, 2009 at 6:13 pm
Harry, every buy-and-hold zombie looks like a genius when stocks are going up. Where are the posts where you were urging people to sell in August of 2008? If you rode this market all the way down, you are still well below break-even. Something like 20% below, in fact. Hmm…
September 15th, 2009 at 7:41 pm
Hey Gang! It’s with great pleasure and a cocktail that I address you tonight. Please see BR’s latest post – he GETS it! Now look at what AAPL is doing. An accounting change and the stock is set to rocket 50 points! What’s that going to do to the indices? LOL! I’m loving this market!
September 15th, 2009 at 8:11 pm
h wanger-
you are probably the dumbest person on the planet-
looks like you get your advice from Jim Cramer-
but i will stick to my original thought- that this is all a big gag-
if that is not the case- then i feel sorry for you
September 16th, 2009 at 10:32 am
Interesting debate I must say. My thoughts are that nothing will change untill corporations no longer can claim the rights of human beings. If the current case in the supreme court removes the restrictions on campaign contributions all bets are off. The country won’t be held hostage but owned by the corporations. The future reps will be own and beholden to those who financed their election.
If money is considered free speech then my $20 donation is nothing in compared to what a big company can shower a politician.
Can you think of any bill right now or in the recent past that hasn’t been influenced by a corporation?
That’s my 2 cents.
September 16th, 2009 at 12:34 pm
I have a simple question for Harry. Did you get out in 2007 anywhere near the top? I started investing in stocks (no-load mutual funds) in July 1984 and continued to put money in the market month after month, year after year, until early July of 2007 when I went completely to cash and have remained there ever since. That means I am about 7% higher now than I was in July of 2007. Is your total portfolio that much higher than it was then? If so, I congratulate you.
This disaster was not that hard to see coming, you just had to look at history and act accordingly.
Ancient One