Here is the latest David Singer Dow annotation:
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click for ginormous chart
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chart by David L. Singer at SINGER$MARKET
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof. —John Kenneth Galbraith
Putting aside its incredible product line and pipeline of more, its still attractive valuation relative to earnings, and its $100 per share of cash that may be used for a dividend soon, Apple's stock has gone parabolic. And, parabolic moves always end one way, back to the place where the parabolic move began. Now, AAPL can of course power higher to who knows where in this move but the largest market cap stock in the world has now entered a tenuous phase, strictly technically speaking. But I digress. German investor confidence, the ZEW, in the next 6 months rose back...
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September 18th, 2009 at 12:24 pm
So we may be forming a right shoulder? If that happpens then doesn’t classic charting take the neckline to the head and subtract that from the neckline? Yikes.
September 18th, 2009 at 12:34 pm
I’m certainly no technical market analyst, but isn’t it saying something that this rally is taking place on decreasing volume? I always thought that volume was the ultimate arbiter of the soundness of any market movement.
[I had a snarky comment, but I removed it before clicking “submit” — I’m trying to be a better person (in lieu of being a better trader).
September 18th, 2009 at 12:39 pm
If the EW guys are even half right the next wave down will be quite interesting.
We did not see widespread panic selling in 2008 among everyday people, although there was despondency in March. I continue to believe that we will see panic on a scale not seen in our lifetimes before this bear market is over. Think about a decline, the press saying “OMG it’s happening again, and then finally people dumping their 401Ks into cash on a large scale…. ” Just wanted to point out a dynamic that might play out next time around.
September 18th, 2009 at 12:39 pm
If the EW guys are even half right the next wave down will be quite interesting.
We did not see widespread panic selling in 2008 among everyday people, although there was despondency in March. I continue to believe that we will see panic on a scale not seen in our lifetimes before this bear market is over. Think about a decline, the press saying “OMG it’s happening again, and then finally people dumping their 401Ks into cash on a large scale…. ” Just wanted to point out a dynamic that might play out next time around.
September 18th, 2009 at 12:43 pm
It is telling how volume started jumping up in the latter half of ’99 and has shot skyward ever since. I take this as yet another indicator of a Fed with its foot pressing the pedal to the medal, non-stop for about a decade now. In addition to houses and yachts, a lotta coin (& credit) went into the markets.
And then in March of ’09 sumptin’ happened. Actually sooner than that, but the air whooshed out of the equities end of the balloon about then, other pockets of hot air having been previously vacated.
It’s funny how the volume and the price can tell two completely different stories. Or more likely, this is yet another instance of the blind “experts” identifying the elephant. All part of the same picture, which is too large and complex for the puny human mind to contain.
But we can still see the outlines …
September 18th, 2009 at 12:43 pm
These Singer charts are a little much don’t you think? I use technicals too but only to a certain extent for short term moves. This over analyzation of a chart is absolutely ridiculous. Psychologically, charts work with traders since they all gather at certain levels and make the prophecy right or wrong. More than that is just plain nonsense.
Remember the July “head and shoulders”? Laughable how all these guys got sucked into that one. Yet, here he is again throwing up another “head and shoulders”, blah, blah, blah.
My other favorite data mining trick these chartists use are moving averages. 5 min, 10 min, hourly, daily, weekly, monthly; 9dma, 21, dma, 50dma, 200dma. Whatever fits the move they want the market to make, that’s what dictates which moving average and time frame they use. Utterly idiotic.
September 18th, 2009 at 12:45 pm
@ frankinomaha
We “could” be.
Of course the pattern is not complete nor would it be for sometime. If indeed the future prices manifest in that kind of completed pattern, only the most bearish of theses, i.e a return to somewhere around Dow 3000-4000 would be vindicated.
An interesting thing about this market over the long term is that we may be in a large consolidation off of the huge run up from 1982 to 2000, with new hyper-liquidity driven highs ahead. We may also validly see a Prechteresque decline in equities i.e., a significant break below the March 2009 lows. That range of possibilities is pretty frightening and confusing.
Over the nearer term, we are dealing with a major rally folllowing a massive cascading decline. This rally could stall here at the resistance levels indicated on the chart above, i.e., the dashed mid-point and declining but now flattening out 20 month EMA which is around 9750.
However, as in Barry’s “6th inning” post, ( I think bottom of the sixth with 2 outs and a full count), there is technical evidence that the rally could run up to the 1200 area and I believe there is still more room for psychology to get even more skewed to the positive side before this aggressive major bear market rally finally peters out.
Remember, I do these charts not because I think they can tell the future, but because I think they help frame arguments for various theories regarding future price possibilites. I invite you to take them as such…
September 18th, 2009 at 12:49 pm
@leftback
nice case of deja view ya got going there. How did you get Wordless to accept two identical messages? Or was this a case of Wordless getting creative, possibly randomly creating additional comments to up the site stats a bit?
September 18th, 2009 at 12:50 pm
Wanger, the nice thing about TBP is it is searchable. So when we hit DOW 50,000 we’ll be able to look back and say, see Harry is THE MAN, he called it, and ignored all the Bears, chartists, Louise Yamada.
HARRY WANGER, God of trading. BTW, where were you in March when we called the bottom right here? Perhaps you were in the fetal position under your desk holding hands with Dennis Kneale?
September 18th, 2009 at 12:54 pm
@ harry
thanks for the support… did I talk about the “january head and shoulders” cause I thought that was nonsense, too…
For any one, including Harry that disputes using various technical patterns and indicators to get an idea of what is going on in the market, I offer you the following chart I posted and sent to BR many moons ago:
SINGER$MARKET – June 7, 2007
http://singerprofitcharts.blogspot.com/2007/06/two-views-of-sp-500.html
September 18th, 2009 at 12:54 pm
Singer: Just curious, what did your analysis say about the July Head and Shoulders?
leftback: I ignore all the chartist – Yamada? She’s been dead wrong since inidces lows in March. Every chartist I see is a data minor, plain and simple. Whatever time period fits their analysis, that’s what they use in relation to moving averages. The one exception is short term candlesticks. They do indicate a day or two’s worth of a psychological insight. That’s about it.
September 18th, 2009 at 1:00 pm
Singer: Are you referring to the chart where you said quote “Looks for either a big breakout over the old highs or a long journey downward…”?
Yes, the market, according to the charts, is going up or down. Brilliant!
September 18th, 2009 at 1:00 pm
@leftback 12:39 pm
“… a dynamic that might play out next time around.”
Indeed. If one goes back to the Great Drepression, you can see that equities were so tarnished that it took a quarter century for the old highs to be broken, despite the real GDP growing fantastically over that interval. And going back to Barry’s nice chart comparing CDs to stocks, we might easily be in for one of those very long periods where stocks suck, and bonds rule.
Or, simply because the nation has never been in quite the situation that we are in today, vis-a-vis our ability to generate new jobs (in the world of globalization), our humongous national (personal+corporate+government) debt overhang, and (it seems to me) the utter cluelessness of our elected officials and even the public itself, in these days of a zillion+1 ways of communication, a (supposedly) more educated public than ever before, and information at our fingertips — maybe we’re going to write some new stories for future history books.
I agree, it will be interesting to see what happens next.
September 18th, 2009 at 1:01 pm
personally i like em, fwiw, i do better with my own hand writing in terms of comprehension versus typed reports, similar view
September 18th, 2009 at 1:03 pm
@David Singer
Thanks. These charts of yours certainly do spark a lot of thought and discussion. Hard to spark thoughts these days, with reaction seemingly overwhelming reasoned thought at every turn. You’re doing some Good Work here.
September 18th, 2009 at 1:04 pm
@ Harry:
The July H&S of which you harp, is just what it is… an unconfimed, broken pattern. Not all patterns play out, but the psychology behind them remains the same.
Look man, this shit aint a crystal ball, its a hybrid of art and science, and despite your attitude… it does “work” if one knows how to use it.
You cant implement a tool without knowing how to apply it. Thats like trying to hammer a screw.
BTW,
Your attitude in your 12:43 is precisely why you wont last long in this game. Never confuse brains with a bull market, brah.
September 18th, 2009 at 1:05 pm
LB wasn’t there, but is prepared to bet that 1931-1932 was a lot more frightening than 1929. This Boomer generation has had a crash (1987) but that was followed by a MASSIVE recovery, so a BIGGER crash (2008) should produce an even more ENORMOUS recovery, right?
Ask the Japanese bulls of the 90s…
WANGER, good luck to you mate, charts are good for keeping us all busy while we wait for things to happen…
September 18th, 2009 at 1:12 pm
I’Man: I agree. Just like the chart said, it’ll either go up or down. Laughable.
Look. I trade on psychology, momentum and fundamentals. I do alright. The indices are going higher for the reasons I’ve been stating. Oh, that and my cat sat on the same couch in the same position at 9:45 and 1:26 three days in a row. I’d chart that for you but still haven’t found the right moving average to fit the pattern.
September 18th, 2009 at 1:15 pm
I-Man: The slightest touch of COLD STEEL here. I’m sure it will pass, however…
;-)
September 18th, 2009 at 1:15 pm
“Psychologically, charts work with traders since they all gather at certain levels and make the prophecy right or wrong. More than that is just plain nonsense.”
i gotta go with the wanker here. nicely put.
September 18th, 2009 at 1:18 pm
Wonder why he didn’t chart the first time the pharse: In this tough ecomony, was said?
September 18th, 2009 at 1:18 pm
@ LB:
Not quite yet… feeling a little dip in the temperature, but eyes on the downtrend on the 15 min SPX chart…
We should know in a minute or so how thats gonna play out. The metals seem to be deteriorating…
And third times a charm for UUP taking out 22.78…
September 18th, 2009 at 1:19 pm
Harry,
I thought the July head and shoulders was like I-Man said, a possible short-term pattern that never came to fruition…
According to the charts, the market will either go up or down is not only a brilliant statement, but it is a true one…
For instance in June 2007 when the S&P500 was at 1495, the corresct observation is that we are now near the old highs… if we dont go higher over the old highs, ie 1550, we will tank… This kind of analysis allows you to short the market with a stop, i.e. to buy back at 1570 on the S&P 500 in that particular instance.
For me personally, the moment I realized I was making progress in analyzing the market is when I realized that you can’t predict the future, but only assign probabilities to potential outcomes and take positions accordingly…
Frankly, I like Harry’s posts, but Harry I asked you the other day, what’s your strategy for getting out of this market if it turns…
PS we should start a post where we all guess who Harry Wanger is :o)
My short list is:
1) Don Luskin
2) Ben Stein
3) Dennis Kneale
September 18th, 2009 at 1:24 pm
@Singer,
You hardly need to explain yourself to Mr. Wanger. Many of us do not share his opinions on your charts. I appreciate them fwiw. They cause me to think, what more could a trader want. Further, why would you respond to someone bashing TA in the first place, it’s a losting battle, I’ve tried. Especially when lately on this blog, he has been making some, what I find to be, quite funny predictions for next years market action. I find them to be cavalier assumptions of event causality that fundamentalists often make. We need people like Wanger, they help get us to the turn quicker.
September 18th, 2009 at 1:40 pm
Singer: I’ve posted this several times. I see 20% more upside before any substantial pull back. And by substantial I’m looking at nothing more than 8-12%. I will sell all my long positions at that point, wait for the pullback and get back in.
Regarding the charts, as long as traders believe in them, they do create some psychological entrance and exit points on a daily basis. My problem is the with “make the chart fit your thesis” syndrome. Give me any data points regarding stocks and I can pull out a bearish or bullish case based upon whatever moving average or time frame I wish to use to support my thesis.
Right now, it’s all about psychology and fundamentals. All the economic numbers are improving. This, as I’ve explained is Econ 101 – inventory depletion begets increased manufacturing, etc. to ramp up new inventory. Plain and simple. That’s why this has been the easiest market in my life time. And the numbers will only get better through this restocking.
Yet I can explain this over and over and you’d think at times I’m talking with 2nd graders when it comes to economics and psychology.
Uh oh, my cat just upset the trend and sat in the same spot again at a different time. Hmmm…I’ll have to change that to a 23-minute chart now with a 50 minute moving average. There, now it fits!
September 18th, 2009 at 1:46 pm
Singer, if Harry isn’t one of those people, he someone who follows those people and hangs on their every word… thanks for the annotated charts, always fun to compare ideas, strategies, etc.
September 18th, 2009 at 1:47 pm
Singer, if Harry isn’t one of those people, he is someone who follows those people and hangs on their every word… that will end well. thanks for the annotated charts, always fun to compare ideas, strategies, etc.
September 18th, 2009 at 1:51 pm
Harry,
Share your distaste for technical trading, and the pragmatist in me agrees that any chartist that says a big move either up or down is coming is worthless. I’ve yet to see a technical trader be right on more than about 55% of their calls, which is statistically insignificant enough that it is just as likely to be luck. But please indicate how fundamentals support an argument for 20% upside?
Otherwise your argument that you’re a momentum trader makes no sense (typically those are technical guys), and I’ll argue that your read on fundamentals now is crap.
The only thing driving this market is government: policies, handouts, currency debasement, price controls, liquidity, and outright manipulation of indices. Fundamentals went out the window a long time ago.
September 18th, 2009 at 1:57 pm
This, as I’ve explained is Econ 101 – inventory depletion begets increased manufacturing, etc. to ramp up new inventory. Plain and simple. That’s why this has been the easiest market in my life time. And the numbers will only get better through this restocking.
Right on. It was manufacturing that led us into this recession so manufacturing will lead us out.
Wait — this is 1948, right? No? Credit what swaps? Leveraged consumer . . . Huh? Oh, now I’m all kinds of confused.
September 18th, 2009 at 2:03 pm
Transor: Manufacturing is up. Will that last, who knows? I do know it will last long enough to generate some pretty amazing GDP numbers that will surprise. Thus, the enthusiasm will continue to make the market move higher. I could write pages on how this mini boom we will experience could actually spark something larger but it’s a very complicated subject with lots of varying theories. So I’ll stick with short and sweet – the current restocking in inventories will give the indication or illusion, depending on your outlook, that the economy is on fire. Excitement continues stocks move higher. 20% is my goal before I take money off the table.
September 18th, 2009 at 2:25 pm
“A closed mind is like a closed book; just a block of wood” – Chinese Proverb
‘The eye sees only what the mind is prepared to comprehend.’ — Henri Bergson
It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it.’ — Aristotle
Knowing is the enemy of learning. -?
Be cool. – hope
September 18th, 2009 at 2:27 pm
“I could write pages on how this mini boom we will experience could actually spark something larger but it’s a very complicated subject with lots of varying theories.”
Humor us Wanger, please. We are all waiting with baited breath.
Please also give a detailed answer to Gavshire
September 18th, 2009 at 2:29 pm
TA is good for entry and exits, trend direction, OB/OS conditions, etc. Fundamentals(ist) are good for the long term outlook as long as the books aren’t cooked.
September 18th, 2009 at 2:41 pm
How’s the Vector, Victor?
Sorry…but total garbage.
The chart, which I’ll get to in a moment is bad enough…but Singer writes:
“Remember, I do these charts not because I think they can tell the future, but because I think they help frame arguments for various theories regarding future price possibilites. I invite you to take them as such… ”
C’mon Singer! Allow me to quote Johnny Mac: “You cannot be serious!” I mean it sounds great…”framing arguments for various theories regarding future possibilities”…but in the end it is utterly useless. What does that even mean? It’s like I’m reading Derrida deconstruct Wittgenstein.
But let’s take you at your word: You’re framing an argument….for something.
Is there any way to test how well this “argument” or this line of thinking…or this logic…or this rationale…performed in the past? Or are you going to invoke the garbage line, “Trading is an ‘art’ and my trusty indicators are part of my artisans’ toolkit?”
Now, I know I’m being harsh, and it is nice of you to share…but you do want to influence people don’t you? I realize you aren’t offering investment advice…(while you are offering investment advice)… and that you are not looking to persuade people…or convince them….
But you do want to be an influence and part of the “argument” as you say? Otherwise, why share? It’s not as if this stuff is being proffered for us to indulge our Epicurean side and appreciate the aesthetics of a bunch of straight lines with scribble. It’s meant to provide informed insights….
And, in the end, what is the informed insight, really? Head and Shoulders with vectors and necklines and “support” with 20 month EMAs…
Gimme a break. You’re making an “argument” via the proxy of a faceless apparition with a dandruff problem and a slumping right shoulder, who is whispering a message: “Psst! Sell. It’s time to Sell! Be patient, my son, and wait until I am upside-down and shrugging. Then, it will be time to buy! In the meantime…stop touching yourself there!”
This stuff deserves ridicule. It really does…”Serious” commentators on the market reference this tripe without a shred of evidence that it’s in any way significant. Nothing which substantiates the fact that 20 month EMAs (as opposed to 19 months or 22 months) give any useful insights. Nothing which indicates how well an investor would have done if he heeded the all-important neckline”….Nothing which even defines what “Support” is…it just “is” after all. Then, naive people gamble accordingly (and lose).
If you give this scribble a shred of credence….and you don’t think you are gambling—as opposed to “investing”—then you’re just not being honest with yourself.
September 18th, 2009 at 2:47 pm
How’s the Vector, Victor?
Sorry…but total garbage.
The chart, which I’ll get to in a moment is bad enough…but Singer writes:
“Remember, I do these charts not because I think they can tell the future, but because I think they help frame arguments for various theories regarding future price possibilites. I invite you to take them as such… ”
C’mon Singer! Allow me to quote Johnny Mac: “You cannot be serious!” I mean it sounds great…”framing arguments for various theories regarding future possibilities”…but in the end it is utterly useless. What does that even mean? It’s like I’m reading Derrida deconstruct Wittgenstein.
But let’s take you at your word: You’re framing an argument….for something.
Is there any way to test how well this “argument” or this line of thinking…or this logic…or this rationale…performed in the past? Or are you going to invoke the garbage line, “Trading is an ‘art’ and my trusty indicators are part of my artisans’ toolkit?”
Now, I know I’m being harsh, and it is nice of you to share…but you do want to influence people don’t you? I realize you aren’t offering investment advice…(while you are offering investment advice)… and that you are not looking to persuade people…or convince them….
But you do want to be an influence and part of the “argument” as you say? Otherwise, why share? It’s not as if this stuff is being proffered for us to indulge our Epicurean side and appreciate the aesthetics of a bunch of straight lines with scribble. It’s meant to provide informed insights….
And, in the end, what is the informed insight, really? Head and Shoulders with vectors and necklines and “support” with 20 month EMAs…
Gimme a break. You’re making an “argument” via the proxy of a faceless apparition with a dandruff problem and a slumping right shoulder, who is whispering a message: “Psst! Sell. It’s time to Sell! Be patient, my son, and wait until I am upside-down and shrugging. Then, it will be time to buy! In the meantime…stop touching yourself there!”
This stuff deserves ridicule. It really does…”Serious” commentators on the market reference this tripe without a shred of evidence that it’s in any way significant. Nothing which substantiates the fact that 20 month EMAs (as opposed to 19 months or 22 months) give any useful insights. Nothing which indicates how well an investor would have done if he heeded the all-important neckline”….Nothing which even defines what “Support” is…it just “is” after all. Then, naive people act accordingly (and lose).
If you give this scribble a shred of credence….and you don’t think you are ______ (rhymes with rambling and begins with a G )—as opposed to “investing”—then you’re just not being honest with yourself.
PS
Sorry for the stupid rhyme…that word gets Sp— filtered.
September 18th, 2009 at 2:47 pm
Gavshire: We agree on the charting. You ask: “But please indicate how fundamentals support an argument for 20% upside?” I believe I’ve answered this with the inventory restocking and consequent manufacturing to support that. After 20% I believe that phase will have played out. As I said, that “mini boom” could spark something bigger but certainly could run out of steam. I’ll be watching early numbers in 2010 for further support fundamentally, or short term boost. The answer will be clear then.
Regarding momentum trading – I go with the psychological flow of the trade. Right now that’s been positive. I see nothing, economically, that will change that over the next two Q’s. Momentum doesn’t necessarily support technicals but certainly supports psychology.
“The only thing driving this market is government: policies, handouts, currency debasement, price controls, liquidity, and outright manipulation of indices”. Yes, you are correct to some extent. Now throw inventory builds in there and you have a hell of a market, right? Of course. That’s why it’s been so incredibly easy to make money in this market. Between natural cycles of inventory builds and all the government backing you could not have asked for an easier play. And it continues throughout the end of this year.
One thing Barry, Singer and I all agree upon is that the market it going higher. We just all get there from different angles.
September 18th, 2009 at 2:50 pm
I see that in my absence this week, the Wang-man is getting under some other peoples’ skin here at TBP. Don’t bother folks. It’s not worth it. Party on. Bull market is back, economy has recovered, and happy days are here again.
September 18th, 2009 at 2:55 pm
Dan Duncan: Nice post. I saw a “well respected chartist” last week talk about the SPX. He used a 21 dma for his “thesis”. When asked why he went into some b.s. about trading velocity or some other nonsense. Then, in all seriousness, he make his case for the Dow with a 200 dma. I couldn’t stop laughing. You see the Dow didn’t neatly fit his 21 dma so he used the 200 instead to make his “strong” case.
MarketWatch has the funniest of them all. This guy pulls out 15min charts, weekly charts, monthly charts all within the same article depending on which one fits his argument. The best: he’ll use a 15min SPX chart to predict next month. Must be some 15 minute period to be able to ascertain all that info. Too funny!
September 18th, 2009 at 2:59 pm
“The only thing driving this market is government: policies, handouts, currency debasement”
Correct! Be aware that these can change. We are not Zimbabwe, left to debase alone in isolation. We have trading partners. There are other governments, and they have policies, handouts and need for debasement as well. Look at sterling today, for example. If the $ falls too far, European/Japanese exporters will be hurt. So the rise in EUR:USD is ultimately self-limiting. Carry trade unwinds are quite interesting, especially when people are swimming naked.
It’s not just about you and your tech stock “market” Harry, there is a great big Macro world out there. Inventory build is over. Chinese pig farmers are up to their ears in copper, there are tankers on Blankfein’s front lawn loaded with crude. The easy money in commodities was made in the Spring and it will be interesting to see how much of this summer’s trading profits are actually destroyed this Fall if macro factors turn against the brave retail investor. BTW, Wanger, IT spend is still patchy at best, so some of those stocks are a little rich. Tech was a good call this summer, well done, but it’s not going to NAZ 5000.
September 18th, 2009 at 2:59 pm
What does that even mean? It’s like I’m reading Derrida deconstruct Wittgenstein.
Or like… or like… listening to Frank Sinatra cover the Stones… or like… um… watching interpretive dances of Best Movie nominees at the Oscars … or like… like…
September 18th, 2009 at 3:00 pm
HW: Have to agree with you COMPLETELY on the MW Technical Indicator charts guy, he is the WORST… :-)
September 18th, 2009 at 3:47 pm
@dan and harry
just one question, where the hell were you guys all those other flaming fibo fridays? and dan, very eloquent smackdown of TA, mad props to you sir. :-)
September 18th, 2009 at 4:09 pm
Pfft.
September 18th, 2009 at 4:52 pm
lb,
what frightens me is that MarketWatch has any Traffic, at all..
and Singer’s point: “the moment I realized I was making progress in analyzing the market is when I realized that you can’t predict the future, but only assign probabilities to potential outcomes and take positions accordingly…”
especially, this: “only assign probabilities to potential outcomes and take positions accordingly…”
is, to me, an extremely good one.
to believe otherwise is to think these guys http://www.rmahq.org/RMA/ , as well, are OTL; and, these fine cats have no basis, whatsoever, to their, well-fitting, name http://us1.institutionalriskanalytics.com/www/index.asp
September 19th, 2009 at 1:30 am
I still hold to my eventual bottom of S&P 474. This charting looks scary. I typically don’t give two shits about the dow, but i took the analogous image and applied it to the S&P and wonder what could happen.. Think you could do a SPX one MR. Singer? (perhaps speculating upon the right shoulder of the massive decade long formation?) This chart voodoo stuff is starting to scarily mimic my fundamental beliefs. I said 1062 for the intermediate top, but obviously i’m scared shitless with my reflation longs still riding and less money coming in. Perhaps it’s time just to cash out and play it safe in a MM account.
BTW, what’s 1078 divided by 666, Bubba? (hahaha, based on resistance levels, 1174 looks like the next stop if we break up from here to me).
September 19th, 2009 at 2:15 am
three caveats:
1. I’m an idiot
2. a random target like 474 thrown out a year in advance is obviously subject to currency fluctuations, which have been greatly influenced by unprecedented monetary policy flucuations.
3. Analysis for the economy, the market as a whole, and individual stocks all are different. I tend to use the following algorithm: Screen and Microfundamental evaluation of a stock and business based on business model and Financial Statements, Macro Fundamental Evaluation of the economy as a whole, Technical Evaluation of the Market as a whole, Technical evaluation of the buy/sell/hold of a particular position weighing value, expectations and dividend cash flows.
4. I’m an idiot.
Shit. I can’t even count. . How am i gonna make money? When’s the next dip, Harry, and when am I supposed to get out? is that 1.2xthe first time you said it or 1.2 x today’s value? I have no idea what’s going on anymore. Uh, fashion-forward, and grow yer own!
September 19th, 2009 at 3:07 am
also, for the record: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/bear-market-rally-3/#comment-152381
note the date. . .
even a blind squirrel. . .
September 23rd, 2009 at 8:11 pm
That’s what I was thinking too.