Chicago PMI

By Peter Boockvar - September 30th, 2009, 10:03AM

The Sept Chicago PMI was much weaker than expected and back below 50 at 46.1. Expectations were 52 vs 50 in Aug. Maybe call it the Clunker hangover as New Orders fell 6 points to 46.3, a 3 month low and Order Backlogs fell 9 points to 36.7. Employment was little changed at 38.8. Inventories got a lift, rising 11.4 points to 38.9 and it’s the highest since Nov ’08 likely following an increase in auto production where plants went back online in July. Bottom line, manufacturing will be a key contributor to the Q3 GDP rebound with the question always being sustainability but with final demand still sluggish, there is only so much of an improvement that we will see and today’s number highlights that risk. The national ISM is out tomorrow which will reconcile all the regional surveys and will include an Export component which today’s Chicago figure did not have and has been a source of stability.

PERMALINK
Category: MacroNotes.

Comments

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

3 Responses to “Chicago PMI”

AmenRa Says:
September 30th, 2009 at 12:39 pm
Believe it or not but the Chicago Fed puts out a better manufacturing report than the PMI.
http://www.chicagofed.org/economic_research_and_data/files/cfmmi_august_2009.pdf

per the report MoM is -.03% and YoY is -20.8%
AmenRa Says:
September 30th, 2009 at 1:35 pm
Then again the CFMMI relates more to Industrial Production than PMI. Never mind. Back to watching the dollar nosedive.
leftback Says:
September 30th, 2009 at 3:44 pm
A YoY of -20% is also what we are seeing out of China, month after month. The New Normal. Flatliners.