Like us, right? LOL

“Give them some respect for longevity if nothing else as they’ve stood the test of time.’

good point pat

I’m in no rush. Through thick or thin, my plan is to hold my positions until 2011. Then I’ll see where I go from there. You know, there’s nothing saying you can’t take a little profit if you are so inclined. I’m enjoying the ride. It just pisses me off when people talk about precious metals as if they were some kind of 2nd class asset. They’ve been around a lot longer than equities, Treasuries, corporate bonds, money markets, CDs–I think you get my point. Give them some respect for longevity if nothing else as they’ve stood the test of time.

Ah, the TLT has been a faithful girl, hasn’t she? ;)

You got me there. I don’t know squat about the bond market. Never has interested me. But I have provided relevant data and links which support my numerous negative comments on the deflation theory. But I am also hedged to take advantage of it, if I am incorrect because in these manipulated markets who knows?

More on TLT…

I want to re-iterate that I don’t know shit about anything (except for what goes on in this CLOWN head of mine)… But here’s how CLOWN logic works (if you ever wondered)…

TLT bets (all along, since I first put them on in June) were a proxy for a stock market crash… I figured I’d rather be LONG LONG bonds than anything else… Why? Well largely because I don’t trust Obama, BB, the SEC, or the USG to do anything rational… Therefore, let’s say (and you have to initiate your thinking from a May ’09 timeframe) you see the stock market as overvalued vs. fundamentals (vs. anything OTHER than f411 rhetoric)… But let’s say ALSO you see a new President who has no problems cozying up to bankers and putting the entire economic future of the country into the hands of thieves simply because he either has no balls to do otherwise, or is just plain STUPID…

Well, I don’t trust criminals such as those… I believe that if a market selloff were to occur, their own reputations would be soiled (as they perceived it in their polling numbers)… In fact, if a meltdown were to occur, the unscrupulousness of their very nature might be to enact some kind of THWARTING mechanism… (Closing the markets, bank holidays, short selling bans, etc.)…

So I figured… Why be shorting stocks at all?… What if I actually made money, but that some law came out that prevented me from collecting?

Note: I have NEVER considered any measures such as these before in my life, but with what I have seen from this recent Administration, I have opened NEW CHAPTERS of cesspool governing…

So in that light, What is the safest bet?… What does this whore government need MOST OF ALL… Answer?… Money…

Now, bonds are usually boring… (they don’t move much in normal times)… But in crazy times such as we live, they seem to have the potential to move about wildly… Look at ’08 for example… One good crash in ’09 could sent the TLT from 80 – 120 if things got bad…

So I took those odds…

I priced in a median number of 105 (for the Jan ’10 calls)… That’s a PAR number… Meaning, paying a dollar for those calls was a 1:1 (even money) bet that they would reach that level…

Less or more…

I’ve had in the back of my head all along that if a REAL market crash occurs in September or October of ’09, then 105 -110 – 115- even 120 could be reached on TLT… That would be up to a 15-bagger based on premium…

For now, I’m happy to play the fluctuations on PAR… IOW, under 80 cents they are interesting, over a dollar twenty, I sell some… I’m still keeping some calls purchased at 40 cents for the duration… They’d be a 30-bagger…

But we’ll see… Actually, I’m hedging on ‘ditching’ my market crash scenario for Sept-Oct ’09…

Oh it will come, it will come (the crash)… But right now I’m leaning more towards the idea of a 10% correction now, then a rebound through the end of year…

For now, my “crash” is more in the July 2010 area (with the downturn beginning in the Jan-Mar ’10 time period)…

It’s too early to buy CALLS on that yet, or PUTS… (except for crap like Macy’s & Capital One which I bought 2011 PUTS on this summer when the VIX was down at 22)…

That’s how we clowns roll…

The TLT has been the one mofo that has kept me positive on the year (all in the options space)…

Back in June, I bought out of the money Jan ’10 calls for 80 cents, and sold at a double… Then, I bought the same friggin calls at 40 cents and, as of today, they’re a TRIPLE (but I did already sell half of that position before)…

All of my other action in ’09 (trying to “short” market tops, has met with mixed success)… I’ve made some, I’ve LOST some (mostly I’m net negative on those trades)…

But the TLT has been a BEAST MONSTER for me… It’s the HUGH HENDRY trade FWIW…

That said… It’s a little long here (and I actually nibbled off a little more today on the remaining calls I owned)… I hope it pulls back… I’ll jump right back in…

Right now I keep going long the USD… I’m not “balls to the wall” yet, but I’m getting there… It could end up being my waterloo for ’09 (or It’ll do nice)… It’ll never be the ultimate waterloo for me because I have MORE than that position in gold hedged against it…

But TLT… I LOVE YOU BABY!

BTW… Other small trading positions? I’m short a little silver here (in OTM ZSL calls)… I’m mildly short the S&P (hoping for a rally tomorrow or friday to re-test 1008 so I can add)…

That be it, just about…