Nouriel Roubini was talking today about the possibility of a “U-shaped” economic recovery or a double dip recession, just one of a growing number of people who have been mentioning the dreaded “W-shaped” outcome, at least according to data collected by Google trends.
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Roubini said there is just a small (but increasing) probability of this scenario and, if it occurs, it will be due to policy makers not getting the “exit strategy” right. Based on this logic – our economic future being dependent upon Washington economists doing a better job coming out of the recession than going into the recession – you’d think the odds of a “W-shaped” future would would be appreciably higher than as stated by Nouriel.

Category: Markets

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16 Responses to “Double dip recession Google trends”

  1. investorinpa says:

    You could probably make a glossary of terms that have sprouted up since this recession began that have changed contexts. Double dip used to be a reference to ice cream. Green shoots had nothing to do with monetary policy. TARP used to be what baseball teams placed on the field when it rained. I’m sure there are more.

  2. willid3 says:

    i wonder what the odds of a L shaped ‘recovery’. with 70% of the economic drivers on thier back just what will drive it?

  3. Pat G. says:

    “it will be due to policy makers not getting the “exit strategy” right.”

    Considering that policy makers got the “entrance strategy” wrong…

  4. harold hecuba says:

    where is the driver for jobs. \ that’s my call for the economy for the next decade 2006 represented the top of the slant while 2015 represents the bottom

  5. clawback says:

    willid3,

    Stocks always go up and economies grow — it’s the law!

    In all seriousness, your short comment displays more intelligence than Obama’s entire economic staff put together. (I’m also saying you’re right.)

  6. contrabandista13 says:

    The question is, how do we transition from government investment, to private sector investment….?

    I don’t see it happening and the current stimulation is not sustainable. Something’s gotta give….. Personally, it’s looking more and more like if the economy has shot it’s wad….. I mean what’s next, a big war….? I guess we could try that… I just hope that we win……

    Best regards,

    Econolicious

  7. call me ahab says:

    willid-

    i think the USG will get the looks of a recovery through government stimulus alone- however it will be fleeting and the economy will collapse again-

    beat down and spent- with many years of stagnation to follow

  8. batmando says:

    @ contrabandista13 at 4:53 pm
    The question is, how do we transition from government investment, to private sector investment….?

    private sector investment…. in what?
    regardless the source of investment, the question still remains what sector (other than war) has/will have potential for growth going forward?

  9. Marcus Aurelius says:

    Roubini has turned into a cockeyed optimist.

  10. willid3 says:

    my reasoning for thinking that we will have an L is this. we have shipped as many jobs as possible, leading to lower incomes for consumers, who listened to wall street to get loans to make up for the low incomes. well, the wall street wizards now are broke. and consumers are loosing their jobs, and those that still have them, are looking at lower incomes. that not a prescription for them to start spending. besides i suspect consumers have relearned a lesson from the great depression. don’t spend much. don’t trust the banks. and don’t trust wall street. and save as much as you can. and those together are not a prescription to get the economy going again any time soon. all the government investment has done is pull economy out of a nose dive. to get some thing more will require private investment to actually do some thing, i just think they have forgotten how to do that in the US. they know how to invest in other countries. just not here

  11. JohnnyVee says:

    The old Roubini would have come right out and said that the economy was going to look like a “WWW” recovery in a decling fashion for the next 5 years. The Roubini today doesn’t want to. WTF.

  12. Avl Dao says:

    I’ve de-coupled the oxymoronic “Recovery” from the phrase ‘L’-shaped Recovery.
    Why?
    Because there is no ‘recovery’ in such symbolism. We’re having an ‘L’-shaped Descent….and we’re close enough to get a glimpse of the terrain at the bottom of the crater.
    Recovery? Travel along the bumps of a crater is not a recovery.

    As for Double-Dip….the last one provided the bookmark to the 9-year period of 1973-1982 which was a Structural Economic Transformation for the US where we gleefully (towards the end) kicked our manufacturing core to the curb in a rush to embrace this newfangled Service Economy with its Knowledge Jobs and a GDP 70% driven by debt-enabled consumer spending. Cept we didn’t grasp that whole ‘debt-enabled’ clause for a few decades; we didn’t know that the next 25 years would bring a bizarre Kudzu-type of consumer spending ‘growth’ enabled by ever-increasing amounts of household debt.

    And now we’re on ‘Planet De-Levergaing’.

  13. call me ahab says:

    “And now we’re on ‘Planet De-Levergaing’.”

    agreed Avl- my take is we will have an anemic rise to almost zero growth due to stimulus and then back down to “bumping long the bottom” as you say

  14. mathman says:

    Anyone know what ever happened to all that “green job” investment that was supposed to happen by BOTH the gov. and priv. venture cap ? i know T. Boone Pickens dropped his vaunted plan (but he’s a b/s artist anyway, in my eyes) but what about everyone else and the government plans for some green jobs?

    Turning our economy away from oil as the basic driver could be a lifting mechanism for the economy, but it’ll take time to train people, get manufacturing up and running (and NOT from China i hope), and develop infrastructure (to name a few major parts).

  15. jc says:

    My QWETY keyboard doesn’t have a symbol to express the economy going forward. The stimulus and clunkers will head fake us into a + Q or two and then the dismal jobs & RE situations will reassert temselves.How long will these banks hang onto their shadow inventories. I guess that will be cruch time when they lose access to (almost)free Fed funds and their profit margins get squeezed by foreclosure, comm RE and credit cards, then they have to off load the res foreclosures. Either BB maintains a bottomless punch bowl for the banksters and inflames runaway inflation of the US takes the bank owned props off their hands at “fair prices”. Pick your poison, maybe we get both!

  16. olephart says:

    jc Says:

    My QWETY keyboard doesn’t have a symbol to express the economy going forward.

    Imagine a stairway going down and to the right. The only question at this point is how long the USG can continue to borrow and prop up the economy. When its credit is tapped out the feces will hit the air handling device.