This has been circulating Wall Street trading desks via UBS’ Art Cashin: On both 9/11/01 and 9/11/09, the Dow industrials were at 9605 (it was the close of the 9/10 in 2001, since markets never opened on 9/11 2001).
Here’s the chart:
>
Thanks, Pete!
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
"Overall household indebtedness is up from $7 trillion to almost $10 trillion since 2000. On this sum, we estimate, the American consumer has an annual interest bill of more than $500 billion; a sum, by the way, that vastly exceeds his current income growth." —Kurt Richebacher
"The Greek offer is not sufficient and they have to go away to come up with a revised plan," said a spokesman for the German Finance Ministry. The Greeks must first have a plan that satisfies the Germans which this comment states they clearly don't yet and then the Greek Parliament will vote on it this weekend. This said, whatever package gets voted on in Greece is basically an up or down vote on euro membership so we are entering another uncertain weekend for global markets. A failed vote will likely lead to a hard default which may be what...
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September 14th, 2009 at 11:52 am
What are you trying to say? ;)
September 14th, 2009 at 12:05 pm
That we’re eight years into a depression and not just 18 months?
September 14th, 2009 at 12:09 pm
@aitrader: Bingo. I think the Feds pumped us into a period of la-la land fake prosperity to ensure W’s re-election after the previous recession and are trying to do it again. This is merely one long recession when you think about it, since the previous “gains” weren’t real. They were “real” to the first-movers, but not so much for the bagholders, for whom the pain was real…….real ugly.
September 14th, 2009 at 12:14 pm
Well, over that 8 year period, numerous market sectors have produced robust returns – emerging markets was double digit annualized over that period.
September 14th, 2009 at 12:16 pm
@Eric: Way to change the subject. How much of your portfolio was weighted towards emerging markets?
September 14th, 2009 at 12:23 pm
Depressions schrepressions. Recessions schrecessions. As long as the US Treasury can borrow and print money with impunity, and the Fed is able to manipulate interest rates to be as low as possible, and the US Government can spend billions and trillions of dollars to willfully coerce economic stimulus without real innovation and production behind it, the concept of “business cycle” has lost meaning for me. We are just on a long artificial downward spiral to hell until we can make things other people want in balance to what we consume.
It’s not something I would worry about though. These days, The Great CNBC Sucks only concerns himself with being…FASHION-FORWARD. :D
September 14th, 2009 at 12:23 pm
“emerging markets” produced returns by producing and selling cheap trinkets to sell to Americans using inflated home values as ATM machines.
I’m sure it’ll go on forever! I’m still waiting for someone to buy my house for a million dollars…
Waiting…Waiting…Waiting…
September 14th, 2009 at 12:33 pm
CNBC Sucks Says -
“We are just on a long artificial downward spiral to hell until we can make things other people want in balance to what we consume.”
valid- however i would say the downward spiral is quite real w/ the periods of prosperity being artificially induced-
but we know what you meant-
also the Austrians proved to be pretty repspectable- no? Benson over Portis- wise- no?
September 14th, 2009 at 12:37 pm
Turning Japanese
I think I’m turning Japanese
I really think so …..
September 14th, 2009 at 12:39 pm
Actually, ahab, I have been examining your roster with more depth and from more dimensions, and I am now picking you to be the prohibitive favorite to win the Ritholtz Fantasy Football League.
September 14th, 2009 at 12:40 pm
If you don’t own it and you’re interested in markets, then Beautiful Pictures is a book worth getting.
September 14th, 2009 at 12:51 pm
Mannwich: I’ve been about 30% in EM since the late 90s. No change of subject at all – the graph implies stock market investors who bought and hold have treaded water.
September 14th, 2009 at 12:58 pm
Last week I was driving through West Virginia, along the Ohio River. Town after town had an idled or dead steel mill. What a shame!
Interest rates have been low for 20 years and yet no re-investment in manufacturing. I am not sure why, but our system does not seem to promote capital investments in machines and industrial advancements. Instead we use the low interest rates to make consumer loans for the manufactured product.
We make lawnmowers and cars at a loss then rely on profits from the consumer loans to make corporate incomes look good.
September 14th, 2009 at 1:00 pm
@Eric: That’s cool, but I’m guessing most investors in the U.S. don’t have that much exposure to EM or plain international equities.
September 14th, 2009 at 1:06 pm
In 1929, the United States was an “emerging market”…
September 14th, 2009 at 1:08 pm
@cvienne: Excellent point. EM’s are looking a little “frothy” here, no?
September 14th, 2009 at 1:14 pm
Awesome…
September 14th, 2009 at 1:16 pm
I captured that picture for my files .. thanks
post the POTUS remarks .. I want to remind readers that the concentration of funds filtering thru WS is a problem imo
I remember being worried couple weeks back that maybe the Chicago Fed Bank may see its last day in service on this day .. and I posted a wiki graph of NY Fed spiked activities … I now remember and realize hearing of unusual short trading around this day .. and beyond that I donated to 3 funds via AOL popup .. and gave my $50 back to the Treasury .. beyond that InsuranceEW .. beyond that cleanup activities .. beyond that (almost posted somewhere around here) the notion that cleanup is now in full swing with paper and law .. in the voice of Jim Cramer – BooYa
sorry California wild fires and gulf coast Katrina … umm .. I’ve snarked enough .. and am growing tired of it and hope the real correction train has left the station
September 14th, 2009 at 1:19 pm
EricTyson : Re Emerging Markets: That’s nice. Being able to see look back a decade or so and figure out what would have been a good investment is a valuable skill. Kudos. I bet you get rich from that.
BR: Let’s play magic charts: Using the DOW chart above, draw a straight line from the 2007 peak through today and hit the two minor peaks along the way. THEN, draw a line up from the recent bottom and hit the relevant points. You see a possibility of Dow 8500 in the near future, assuming a normal correction and not a reality check. A reality check would be maybe 1000 point lower beyond that, I suspect.
September 14th, 2009 at 1:26 pm
Heckuva bear market rally there, Bushy.
September 14th, 2009 at 1:44 pm
That’s kinda spooky
September 14th, 2009 at 1:47 pm
but what of the “Bush Boom”- by Jerry Bowyer
long title -
“The Bush Boom: How a ‘Misunderestimated’ President Fixed Our Broken Economy”
it was “fixed” alright- better title- “The Bush Boom and How the Banks Gamed Our Broken Economy”
September 14th, 2009 at 1:48 pm
There’s a very cool map of Virginia in that chart.
September 14th, 2009 at 1:50 pm
@ahab: I miss Jerry. He used to respond to my email invectives. No more. I miss him dearly.
September 14th, 2009 at 1:57 pm
This might be of interest to someone. I saw it and maybe in two or three years I’ll get around to reading it.
Listed under ‘NEW’ here:
UMass paper on “VIX Futures and Options—A Case Study of Portfolio Diversification During the 2008 Financial Crisis” (July 2009)
Two-page summary(PDF file)
Full report (PDF file)
It’s on the CBOE website so I would expect it to be highly congratulatory of the VIX
September 14th, 2009 at 2:22 pm
Hobo: Spoken like a man who had no money in EM the past decade…
September 14th, 2009 at 2:26 pm
EricTyson Says:
September 14th, 2009 at 2:22 pm
Hobo: Spoken like a man who had no money in EM the past decade…
reply:
————
Wrong-a-roonie again EricTyson. I made a lot in emerging markets. I just didn’t buy and hold. Only idiots and the uninformed do that.
September 14th, 2009 at 2:31 pm
Sorry Hobo – I didn’t realize you’re smarter than Warren B – my bad…
September 14th, 2009 at 2:33 pm
EricTyson Says:
September 14th, 2009 at 2:31 pm
Sorry Hobo – I didn’t realize you’re smarter than Warren B – my bad…
reply:
———
Your reply makes no sense.
September 14th, 2009 at 2:49 pm
@dh
ET has to keep us informed about how much he’s making trading EM equities (until the housing market comes back)…
September 14th, 2009 at 2:58 pm
CV – I responded to others questions and I don’t TRADE, I INVEST!
September 14th, 2009 at 3:06 pm
EricTyson Says:
September 14th, 2009 at 2:58 pm
CV – I responded to others questions and I don’t TRADE, I INVEST!
reply:
———
So this would make you a man of faith? I respect your hope and optimism. How does that relate to your chosen profession of financial writer? The past decade would make the concept of ‘investing’ appear to be a bit erratic if you assume ‘investing’ equals ‘buy and hold in perpetuity, as you imply .
Of course, when you look backwards for what looked the best over the past decade and chastise those who may still be holding but are not holding that particular investment, then you detract from your own credibility substantially. In addition, those who take profits are also considered ‘investors’ when the normal definition of the word is applied. But you don’t take profits? Why? History has repetitively shown that to be unwise. Isn’t that in your books?
September 14th, 2009 at 3:09 pm
Eric, your low quality posts are taking you ever closer to troll status or at least a spell in the penalty box.
You better bring something interesting or things will get rough around here. CV and LB don’t suffer InvestTools.
September 14th, 2009 at 3:18 pm
@LB
He’s an “inwestor”…
Although I’m not sure where his “profit/loss” stands because if all he does is buy and hold, he’s never sold anything…
At least Harry Wanger catches PRECISELY every top, and cleverly buys every DIP…
September 14th, 2009 at 3:31 pm
Harry and Eric are Gods of Inwesting.
A lot of people are going to look like tools when DGDF doesn’t work any more.
September 14th, 2009 at 3:41 pm
If “don’t fight the tape” has any validity, bullish trades are not invalid here.
September 14th, 2009 at 3:43 pm
Higher prices for risk assets (and hard assets) continue to be possible due to QE, Brian and Broker, Joe six pack, hank the hedgie caught with too much cash, and the “inflation trade” (real or imagined).
September 14th, 2009 at 3:45 pm
I forgot to mention Tim the trader at any of our esteemed trading operations backstopped by TAXTOOLS of the US.
September 14th, 2009 at 3:47 pm
Hope: So true, and yet so nonsensical at the same time. You have to laugh really, it was a great weekend at Brian’s.
September 14th, 2009 at 3:57 pm
“CV – I responded to others questions and I don’t TRADE, I INVEST!”
Hope you told that to the people that bought your 2nd edition of how to invest in real estate in September 2007 when it was published. They had better be in for the long haul. Oh, I forgot, all markets are not the same, your readers probably all bought outside of Florida, Nevada, and Cali. Aces.
Eric,
I might not agree with much of what you say. Fine. To say though that WB is just some buy and holder is not entirely accurate is it? I know you know this. What buy and hold means to the average investor and to WB are very different. How many average investors do you know that both
1. Own individual stocks
2. Buy puts on them when appropriate
How about all those derivative contracts WB owns?
September 14th, 2009 at 4:06 pm
The site’s crapping out again. A recurring theme lately. Is it just me?
September 14th, 2009 at 4:07 pm
When one has WB’s vast resources, one can AFFORD to buy and hold for the “long term”. For Joe & Jane Retail, “long term” is anything longer than one month.
September 14th, 2009 at 4:09 pm
No Manny, I’ve been having the same issues, actually for a few weeks now. I get a timed out or page not found a lot lately.
September 14th, 2009 at 4:10 pm
Also WB gets deals NO ONE else can get. When he supplies capital, be gets sweet terms. I can’t get anything like the deals he gets. So, he is not a buy and holder (exactly), and he doesn’t get the same terms a normal investor gets in the open market, he gets much better deals.
September 14th, 2009 at 4:10 pm
Site is often very slow for me too.
September 14th, 2009 at 4:20 pm
How many average investors do you know that both
1. Own individual stocks
2. Buy puts on them when appropriate
3. Gets sweetheart deals on preferred stock at rates unavailable even to BRIAN and his best client JOHNNY.
Man, Brian was shifting some orders on Sunday at the back yard BBQ. Word is that the WIVES were getting on JOHNNY and CHIP to make with some 3-BAGGERS quick style after they saw the ROCK that BRIAN had bought recently for BARBIE, making the guys feel like CHUMPS for not being ALL-IN this ROCK’n’ MARKET. Losers. ERIC was there too, selling his latest book title:
“Betting the Ranch – How to Leverage your Biggest Investment to Live Large and In Charge”
September 14th, 2009 at 4:25 pm
hopeImwrong Says:
September 14th, 2009 at 4:10 pm
Site is often very slow for me too.
reply:
———-
Me too. Until now, I wondered if it was Norton Internet Security 2009,2010 being extra cautious here and at ZH, but nowhere else. Now I suspect it is a database problem at the server end. Either it’s time to upgrade from Access and CGI or a little tuning and/or programming is required. Hint to trouble shooter: It’s either smooth or it just sits there. Even when smooth, there is a delay not normally associated with text based sites sometimes.
September 14th, 2009 at 4:28 pm
Eric Tyson lost any remaining shred of credibility in my eyes when he asserted that anyone following Bob Prechter’s advice over the last few decades would be “down 99%.” ben22 promptly challeneged Tyson to produce some hard figures to support that smear, and unless I missed it, Tyson never complied.
Bob Prechter’s advice for investors is entirely separate from EWI’s forecasts for traders. Prechter has been telling investors to “HOLD CASH” (i.e., t-bills) since at least the mid-90s. He has, in fact, explicitly discouraged non-professionals from even attempting to sell short into this market. While it’s true that this advice may still have cost investors significant upside in the near term, as Tyson just pointed out, investing isn’t about the near term.
September 14th, 2009 at 4:30 pm
Ben: you obviously have done little or no real estate investing or reading on the topic. You might find it hard to believe that there are folks who have invested in recent years and actually made money.
MW: It may have been the case a decade ago that most US investors didn’t have much overseas but that’s no longer the case. I’ve had half or more overseas for many years
September 14th, 2009 at 4:32 pm
Seattle – not true – here’s the full free article supported 100% by Hulbert data going back 25 years.
http://www.erictyson.com/articles/20090616
September 14th, 2009 at 4:36 pm
Seattle Chill,
Man I thought everyone missed that exchange, including Eric. That really pissed me off that article about Prechter that he wrote, Eric made claims about the EWI Financial Forecast no less, which Prechter does not even write! That’s written by Hochberg and Kendall. I may have missed it to but I never saw a response from Eric on that either.
I’d have no problem if Eric had destroyed Prechter’s performance and offered it in comparison in that paper but no dice.
September 14th, 2009 at 4:39 pm
EricTyson Says:
September 14th, 2009 at 4:30 pm
Ben: you obviously have done little or no real estate investing or reading on the topic. You might find it hard to believe that there are folks who have invested in recent years and actually made money.
… I’ve had half or more overseas for many years
reply:
———
Surprise!!!!! A lot of folk who invested in real estate in recent years haven’t been so fortunate. But, since renting will recover a bit of it’s former popularity, I suspect those who buy foreclosures when the next wave arrives might do OK in the future if they’re willing to treat it as a job.
About that EM exposure: You should investigate the concept of ‘unrealized losses’. Being a finance guru, this should be a priority for you. It might make a good chapter in a future book, assuming you think progressively.
September 14th, 2009 at 4:40 pm
@Eric: OF COURSE people have made money on real estate. Entry price is THE key (maybe the only key) though. People have made money on lots of things over the years, so what’s your point?
September 14th, 2009 at 4:48 pm
The mortgage originators and cowboy appraisers made money on real estate before going back to pizza delivery.
Eric, good luck with those EM investments, all in all you’re just another BRIC in the wall.
September 14th, 2009 at 4:52 pm
Eric,
No kidding some people have made money in real estate. What is your point? That said, you are selling your book to a very wide group, many of which, are probably dumb as shit. Do you really think there is no chance someone bought that book in 2007 and lost some serious money investing in real estate as a result? C’mon.
And as for Prechter:
“Actually, Prechter has been making predictions for many years through his investment newsletter, Elliott Wave Financial Forecast.”
I must stop there as Prechter does not write the Financial Forecast, which celebrated a 10th birthday this year nor do they give specific investment advice or manage money. The FF is written by Hochberg and Kendall. Bob Prechter writes the Theorist letter which by the way, is only focused on the US. To your points above, EWI offers an entire global outlook so wouldn’t it be important to include those in the performance data? After all, only a fool would have all their money in the DOW, you said so yourself. Remember?
Where are the inclusions in your paper of the fact that he has been exactly correct at every major turn since 2007 to provide some balance to your readers?
September 14th, 2009 at 4:52 pm
hopeImwrong Says:
September 14th, 2009 at 4:10 pm
Site is often very slow for me too.
Hint to troubleshooter:
——————————–
I suspect a big problem occurs when database adds are made. It must run a hell of an insert routine, or someone frequently goes out and grabs a smoke while performing an article insert, or it has a nervous breakdown when a couple of comments are in queue.
September 14th, 2009 at 4:55 pm
“That said, you are selling your book to a very wide group, many of which, are probably dumb as shit.”
No WORRIES, benji – our man ERIC’s on his YACHT, baby, waving to BRIAN and LUSKIN across the harbor.
September 14th, 2009 at 5:00 pm
ben22 Says:
September 14th, 2009 at 4:52 pm
Eric,
Do you really think there is no chance someone bought that book in 2007 and lost some serious money investing in real estate as a result?
reply:
———
No chance. The golden shower his readers know really is made of gold. All thanks to EricTyson.
September 14th, 2009 at 5:01 pm
Ben – Prechter has been very wrong about the global stock market rally that commenced late last year/early this year.
The key with real estate is doing your homework on the macro factors affecting the local market and buying a good property at a fair price. Those who do that and HOLD for the long-term do VERY WELL in real estate.
September 14th, 2009 at 5:05 pm
Wow- Eric just can’t get a break on this forum-
but i have to ask- Eric- re your RE investment book- did you have any clue that maybe some bad shit was going to go down due to the RE bubble? and if so-did you clue them in in your preface to the new edition?
or- were you- as i suspect- a believer in the notion that RE never goes down? It’s ok if you thought that though- almost every chump did
September 14th, 2009 at 5:07 pm
Eric, until you post a detailed description of your analysis of Hulbert’s data to substantiate your claim against Prechter, I’m going to join the other posters here in assuming you’re a crank and a troll. And be honest: it was you who slipped your little hit piece into Prechter’s Wikipedia entry, wasn’t it?
September 14th, 2009 at 5:21 pm
All you guys must be retired…you post endlessly…this is my last…
Ahab – We warned people about overheated markets and overpaying in all markets and the analysis you should do before buying…folks get into the most trouble because they don’t bother/don’t know what analysis to do
Seattle – you sound like a Prechter employee or groupie (and why are you so familiar with his Wiki ad err I mean entry? Hulbert is THE most respected resource when it comes to independently tracking newsletters’ actual recs – get a clue!
September 14th, 2009 at 5:25 pm
“All you guys must be retired…you post endlessly…this is my last…”
Lots of youngsters here, Eric, just using up some extra electrons. But we will let you retire for the evening.
September 14th, 2009 at 5:36 pm
Eric Says-
“We warned people about overheated markets and overpaying in all markets and the analysis you should do before buying…folks get into the most trouble because they don’t bother/don’t know what analysis to do”-
so your advice then- in your preface was-
“DON’T BUY- IN FACT SELL NOW- YOU WON’T SEE THESE PRICES AGAIN FOR DECADES”
September 14th, 2009 at 5:39 pm
I don’t buy or sell stocks, wouldn’t consider myself either an investor or a trader.
Were I either of these two however, I’m not too sure I’d be taking advice from someone who’s claim to fame seems to be a bunch of ” . . . for dummies” books. Especially if his are anywhere near as poorly written and researched as the IT ones are.
Note to Eric – if you’re going to play with the boys here in the sandbox you might want to come up with better retorts than “you must know nothing about . . .” or “All you guys must be retired . . . ” You come across as someone who doesn’t like being disagreed with or called on his bullshit and can’t think of anything of real value to say in response.
September 14th, 2009 at 5:42 pm
This also seems like a stretch to me . . . .
“Eric is the only best-selling personal finance author who has an extensive background as an hourly-based financial planner and who does not accept speaking fees, endorsement deals or fees of any type from companies in the financial services industry or product or service providers recommended in his articles, books and his publications”
September 14th, 2009 at 5:48 pm
Oh, I-dren…
“Stop this fussing and fighting.”
-Bob Marley & The Wailers
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YN1JoJcRvJg
September 14th, 2009 at 6:06 pm
Ahab: Wait decades? Wrong again! Houston real estate prices hit a record HIGH recently.
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/6539800.html
Quite a bunch of snipers here – hope for your sake and that of others you’re not like this in the real world.
September 14th, 2009 at 6:36 pm
Come on Eric, you can do better than that. You did write several books didn’t you? How much is Houston real estate up, adjusted for inflation, over the last decade. I’ll give you a hint – it’s less than 5%. That’s an awesome return on your investment over 10 years! Way to go!
September 14th, 2009 at 6:37 pm
Eric- from your article-
“Realtor Amy Bernstein is seeing many first-time and relocation buyers lured by low interest rates and a government tax credit of up to $8,000.”
all subsidized by the USG- but also from your article-
Real estate broker Ken Smith thinks the median price will fall over the next six months. The market, he said, is getting weaker as more jobs are lost. . . “The employment situation is getting worse at an accelerating pace,” he said. . . The Houston area lost 69,600 jobs between June 2008 and June 2009, according to data released last week by the Texas Workforce Commission.
sounds like good news to me- take away the USG incentives to support an industry that has overbuilt- and caused its own problems- then add in the deteriorating job market-
my advice would be to wait-
and yes decades- unless you and people like you expect uncle dumbass to pull of yet another bubble by artificially stimulating demand by low interest rates and tax incentives-
what of the health of the country? do you consider this country to have large structural economic issues that people are over-leveraged- that the USG is trying as best it can to keep the charade going at all costs- instead of letting the markets correct-
where is your head at man
September 14th, 2009 at 6:56 pm
@Eric – I really do not care what the others say, as they can see things through your eyes as well as you can see through theirs.
BUT -
EricTyson Says:
September 14th, 2009 at 5:21 pm
All you guys must be retired…you post endlessly…this is my last…
EricTyson Says:
September 14th, 2009 at 6:06 pm
Ahab: Wait decades? Wrong again! Houston real estate prices hit a record HIGH recently.
I am very glad to see you are a man of your word.
September 14th, 2009 at 7:07 pm
Eric Tyson Says:
“Ben – Prechter has been very wrong about the global stock market rally that commenced late last year/early this year.”
LOL, gonna eat your words again pal. Prechter said this in February:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4SG7XGcL7JE
Erich, what did he say? That’s right, cover shorts, huge rally coming. You fail again.
I’d think for someone bashing his record you’d still know that since Feb, not just Prechter but his newsletters have been BULLISH. They gave targets back in March for S&P 1k-1,100 and DOW 9-10k. Nice try.
September 14th, 2009 at 7:21 pm
ben@&7:07 -
i think that it is pretty widely known the Prechter called the “Devils Bottom” (can a get a TM for that folks?) – and he is now saying 100% out of equities
but, but, but….”Hulbert is THE most respected resource ”
obviously a disconnect somewhere
September 14th, 2009 at 7:37 pm
Wes Schott,
yes, prechter was very close to calling the bottom for the day earlier this year NOT as Eric claims, however Prechter has stayed with his rec from over 2 years ago as Seattle Chill says above and told non traders to remain in tbills, and as per his CTC book from 2000 he suggested years ago for ways to get your money out of the united states and keep it safe (many of those options have now been closed I might add) which could include physical gold. Further, I don’t think his call was exactly that recently to get 100% out, it was just that speculative traders may start to consider being short but not all in short with leverage, such as he suggested in october 2007 and was held until this Feb.
In any event Prechter’s calls would have made you a literal fortune if followed since late 2007. I’m NOT saying he gets every call right, he’s been horribly wrong in the past but that doesn’t change what we are talking about here.
on another note, sometimes wes I think about that post you put up one day about birds you saw in a park, it was a cool post.
September 14th, 2009 at 7:40 pm
I missed the birds in the park post – Share it with us again Wes.
September 14th, 2009 at 7:47 pm
ben@7:37 -
i am with you wrt Prechter
thanks for the compliment on the birds in the park comment
it was a good day – i just did a search , it was back on 6/10
September 14th, 2009 at 7:53 pm
That is a nice story Wes. Fall is nearing as well, they should be back soon eh?
September 14th, 2009 at 8:00 pm
Eric, I found Prechter’s Wikipedia page because it was the first hit for “Hulbert” and “Prechter” in Google, which led me right back to your original piece, which, as I noted before, has no citations.
But I did manage on my own to track down other sources for Hulbert’s analysis of the EWFF, and, just as I suspected, you are misrepresenting the facts to suit your agenda. The poor performance you cite was only for EWFF’s advice to traders, which is entirely separate from Bob Prechter’s advice to investors. According to Peter Brimelow, his and Hulbert’s work shows that:
“EWFF’s advice for investors, however, currently matches the dividend-reinvested Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 on a risk-adjusted basis and has quite often exceeded it. And over the 25 years that Mark Hulbert and I have been watching Prechter, he’s periodically had uncanny runs of success in various markets — for example, with his now-discontinued gold portfolio, over the 1985-1999 interval.”
This was written back in 2005, so, if anything, Prechter’s relative out-performance would be far better now. But feel free to keep cherry-picking whatever statistics support your thesis, Eric. I mean, it’s not as if anyone’s checking, is it?
September 14th, 2009 at 8:01 pm
Ben – you really are a Prechter shill…
Please see: Robert Prechter: 100-Year Bear?
http://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/prechter/default.asp
“In summary, Robert Prechter has been mostly unsuccessful in applying the Elliott wave principle to time the U.S. stock market since 2002.”
Check out the quotes from March (decline not over yet) and April (steepest portions of decline lie ahead)…WRONG AND WRONG AGAIN.
September 14th, 2009 at 8:06 pm
Eric,
As I said, he doesn’t get them all correct, but you are the one that is wrong regarding the EWFF. Yes, they are predicting a decline, in the future, they have been and remain, bullish on the primary trend of the market. They give very specific figures and while I cannot post them here as they are copyrighted I have the March and April Theorist and FF letters right and front of me and you have no clue whatsoever what you are saying. You really should back down from that one.
I’m already familiar with the 100 year bear market, don’t worry, prechter doesn’t think you or I will be alive when that happens.
Unless you have the facts you should not present them as such. Enough said.
September 14th, 2009 at 8:18 pm
Eric,
BTW, this was in the link you posted @8:01
“…the Elliott Wave Financial Forecaster…is currently actually ahead over the past 10 years by Hulbert Financial Digest count, up 1.49% annualized, vs. negative 1.84% annualized for the dividend-reinvested Dow Jones Wilshire 5000. Over the past 12 months through February, EWFF is up some 24% by Hulbert Financial Digest count, vs. negative 46% for the dividend-reinvested Dow Jones Wilshire 5000. Over the year to date, EWFF is up 4.6% vs. negative 21.71% for the total-return DJW.”
Wanna go some more?
September 14th, 2009 at 8:25 pm
It’s odd, Eric, how you keep accusing everyone who defends Prechter of being a “shill.” I think it was Freud who said we often project our own basest motivations onto others. I’m certainly not the one linking my name to a commercial site in every post I make here.
Speaking of links, I forgot to give the url for the whole article by Hulbert’s pal Brimelow:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/elliott-waves-bob-prechter-sounds-the-alarm
September 14th, 2009 at 8:28 pm
Thor@7:53 -
i get lots of birds around here – hawks and egrets in the backyard, and right now, a hummingbird migration – put a little sugar water out and here they come..
i just was not aware of all the birds that pass through until recently – last couple of years
my wife got interested in birding, and i am “leverage” her knowledge :-) – the day in the park really was special
September 14th, 2009 at 9:18 pm
EricTyson @ September 14th, 2009 at 8:01 pm
Check out the quotes from March (decline not over yet) and April (steepest portions of decline lie ahead)…WRONG AND WRONG AGAIN.
EricTyson @ September 14th, 2009 at 5:21 pm
All you guys must be retired…you post endlessly…this is my last…LIE AND LIE AGAIN.
How many last posts you going to make?
Or do you just blow so much smoke you don’ t know the differnce between saying what you mean and meaning what you say.
EricTyson you say to others “you post endlessly….”
Then you say, this is my last….. yet YOU post endlessly…..
Just what is it I should believe on your web site?
September 14th, 2009 at 10:44 pm
“On both 9/11/01 and 9/11/09, the Dow industrials were at 9605 .”
And if you take the log of the square root of 9605 and play it in reverse at 33 RPM it says “I buried Paul”.
September 15th, 2009 at 12:39 am
Unfortunately the market is heading to 1068 before the next major move (in either direction): SPX Weekly Fibo w/midpoints
If it has a strong close above this then I’m afraid it will march onwards and upwards to 1121. These are the areas where I’m looking to go short. That can change if I see any reversals on the daily and weekly TLB.
September 15th, 2009 at 4:03 am
[...] the original: Dow: 9/11/01 = 9/11/09 | The Big Picture SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: "Dow: 9/11/01 = 9/11/09 | The Big Picture", url: [...]
September 15th, 2009 at 1:37 pm
i didn’t see this mentioned elsewhere, read through half of these comments. about as soulless as you’d expect to find on a hardcore economics blogs.
anyway i didn’t see it mentioned that on 9/11/2002 the pick 3 lotto in new york came up 911.
http://bit.ly/sFETh
October 7th, 2009 at 12:04 am
[...] is a re-post from Barry Ritholtz’s blog: This has been circulating Wall Street trading desks: On both 9/11/01 and 9/11/09, the Dow [...]