Forage During Daylight, Hide at Night
By Barry Ritholtz - September 25th, 2009, 5:00PM
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Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
September 25th, 2009 at 5:18 pm
wow- BR- too funny-
i like it- brutal honesty
September 25th, 2009 at 5:22 pm
The new nan0-toilet economy. Catch the fever.
September 25th, 2009 at 6:50 pm
Weird. Go back to the last post, where i recommend the Roman military practice of decimation – fits perfectly with this comic.
September 25th, 2009 at 7:01 pm
Don’t laugh. I’ve had exactly that presented to me, on slides. Was from a valley VC in dec 2008 , one of the big ones, sequioa capital IIRC.
The slide set featured both the death spiral graphic and the slide into oblivion. It also featured a graph of interest rates: nice smooth ride down depicted 1985-20098, lots of spikey oscillation for the next two decades – anticipating in one slide the inflation/deflation debate.
The message was clear – make some fucking money soon boys.
September 25th, 2009 at 7:04 pm
Marcus,
From your name you might know what is involved in the Roman decimation procedure. If not-don’t find out. I unfortunately watched a detailed documentary.
September 25th, 2009 at 7:18 pm
response for @thatguy: why ruminate about a fixed money supply when such a thing does not exist in reality unless having gold standard fantasies? If you posit a fixed money supply then yes increased demand for money results in deflation, (and economic collapse) which is why it is generally frowned upon as a way to run an economy that wants to expand.
response for @markEhoffer: AFAIK, veolocity can be calculated simply as GDP/total_money_supply
where total_money_supply= M0+M1+M2+M3
September 25th, 2009 at 7:21 pm
thetanman:
Yes, I do know what was involved. It would be appropriate if implemented for Congress and/or the banks.
September 25th, 2009 at 7:41 pm
MA – It’s been a slow day for me at work. I’ve just spent the last hour hour reading about Marcus Aurelius. Fascinating :-)
September 25th, 2009 at 7:47 pm
I’ll throw this out for weekend pondering: think of governments running fiat currencies as banks, and commercial banks as subsidiary companies of that bank.
Under this mode of thought deficits and currency represent the depositor base, taxpayers as bank equity holders and everything the government owns from aircraft carriers to MBS as the bank assets.
Following from this:
Q what degree of leverage is appropriate?
A depends on future earnings and likely future support from depositor base. Unhealthy private sector=large depositor base. Unhealthy demographics =poor potential earnings. On these two metrics the comparison between US/UK and eurozone/asian banks is a bit of a toss up.
Q do deficits need to be paid back in full, ever?
A not as long as there are a base of willing depositors who won’t ask for their money back at the same time, even if less than before.
Q Is it possible for depositors to withdraw their deposits?
A no, not unless someone is willing to buy them, and no because many depositors must hold deposits to pay taxes. Only deposits are acceptable for taxes.
Q what is the share price?
A the relative value of the currency
Q how many liabilities can the bank issue?
A unlimited as long as the private sector continues to surrender impaired assets, until the bank owns the entire economy on the asset side of its books.
Q what is the cost of liabilities?
A interest payments on liabilities can be transferred to shareholders (currency holders) via monetisation or can be transferred from the equity holders account (taxpayers). Or assets can be sold to meet liabilities.
Q can this bank become insolvent
A no, unless depositors withdraw. But then how to pay taxes? And what will depositors do with their withdrawls?
September 25th, 2009 at 7:50 pm
Thor:
Dude was the last hope for Rome (he was followed by his son, Commodus – the maniac depicted in the movie ‘Gladiator). If you get a chance, read his book ‘Meditations’ (sort of a melancholy introspection written during the mid-life crisis of a Stoic Roman Emperor).
September 25th, 2009 at 9:33 pm
!WOW! I have no idea who scepticus is , but he/she is dead on.
Spectacular cartoon. Too dead on.
But it’s old news. Scott is of the techies of the 80s.
And nothing has changed except it’s gotten meaner and more evil-spirited.
Everything takes time.
September 26th, 2009 at 3:46 am
Sic semper imperium!
September 26th, 2009 at 7:51 am
Here’s today’s ZEN Moment:
In an effort to promote recovery, lets STOP deficit spending and START deficit investing. I know this term doesn’t come off the tongue so well, but it’s exactly what America’s been missing for years!
Repeat: not deficit spending but deficit investing instead.
(wink)
September 26th, 2009 at 8:14 am
A funny article from Kass…
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10602777/1/kass-the-reason-behind-the-reversal.html?puc=_ttt_html_pla1&cm_ven=EMAIL_ttt_html
And FWIW – cvienne advocates (and always has), option 2 (of the cartoon)…
Lets slap some stringent aftershave on our faces, and get this over and done with within a couple of tough years…
September 26th, 2009 at 11:08 am
OK PEOPLE…NOW READ THIS (In the YOU’VE GOTTA BE EFFING KIDDING ME Department)…
I’m sitting here this morning watching “College Football GameDay”, and they come on all hyped up with this new feature…(drumroll)…
They whip out Jim Friggin Cramer (seriously – button pushing and all), and then proceed to line up Desmond Howard & Kirk Herbstreit (give them each mythical “stock” portfolios & ask them to handicap the games like they were BUYING SHARES of stock)…
I KID YOU FRIGGIN NOT!
Worse, here’s Desmond Howard talking about P/E ratios, Index Funds, & TARP…
IF THERE WAS EVER, EVER, a “ring the bell at the top” indicator, I think we’ve found the #1 candidate!
September 26th, 2009 at 11:39 am
cvienne, talking football,
one of my all time favorites:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UOqlH4YZBkM
I’m sure you’ve seen it before.
And I’m an effing Cowboys fan.
September 26th, 2009 at 12:26 pm
This is very representative of the way my company is behaving… outward optimism on its public face, but internally, there’s no indication of a plan, no strategy to gain market share, no roadmap for new products, just hunker down, keep cutting jobs and hope to wait out the nuclear winter.
This will not end well.
September 30th, 2009 at 11:42 am
!link(test=http://andystechnicals.blogspot.com)
September 30th, 2009 at 11:43 am
!link(test=http://andystechnicals.blogspot.com/)