Friday Reading
A few quickies before I head home to stuff myself for the holidays. For those of you who are not Jewish, I can briefly sum up pretty much every holiday we have thusly: They tried to kill us, we escaped, let’s eat.
Until then, here is some afternoon reading:
• CNN Poll: U.S. still in a serious recession Poll says 86% of Americans believe the U.S. is still in a recession, while Fed chairman is more optimistic. (CNN/Money)
• Take This Monetary System, Please (Barron’s)
• Is The Fed On The Side Of Investors? (AAO Weblog)
• Real estate slump isn’t over, exec says (Union-Tribune) See also Wells Fargo’s Commercial Portfolio is a ticking time bomb
• Ultimate Mean Reversion (Stockcharts)
• Burglar Arrested After Checking Facebook During Robbery (Mashable)
L’Shanah Tovah
September 18th, 2009 at 2:41 pm
From the real estate slump article -
” Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke may think the recession is over, but the head of the nation’s largest real estate services firm says the slump has two or three years to go in his industry.
John C. Cushman III, chairman of Cushman & Wakefield, told an audience at the Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate yesterday that the commercial real estate industry faces $5 trillion in mortgage refinancing problems over the next decade. Improved leasing, sales and construction conditions are unlikely until 2011 or 2012, he said”
Frightening
September 18th, 2009 at 2:45 pm
Thor: No reason to be frightened – that’s old news.
Pundits have been saying all year that commercial real estate was the next shoe to drop and that would further depress the economy and financial markets – wrong.
Lower lease rates are GOOD news, not bad news for businesses – lower rates will help boost their profits.
Kinda like the pundits who said in 1995 that Joe Torre would be a disaster as Yankees manager:
http://www.erictyson.com/articles/20090916_1
September 18th, 2009 at 2:48 pm
“A few quickies before I head home to stuff myself for the holidays. For those of you who are not Jewish, I can briefly sum up pretty much every holiday we have thusly: They tried to kill us, we escaped, let’s eat.”
Barry, I believe you have penetrated the essence of Judaism analogous to your understand of economics. Please try to be a bit more sensitive to many who lost family members no so long ago. Happy holidays.
September 18th, 2009 at 2:49 pm
Three things:
1) this looks like something I’ve played with re: using moving average bands…
2) what indicators available on stockcharts.com is this guy using to build those charts?
3) this is really effing cool…
September 18th, 2009 at 2:50 pm
L’ Shanan Tovah! Happy New Year
September 18th, 2009 at 2:51 pm
http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/279153
..A team of scientists based at the Royal Institute of Technology in Sweden have made a “revolutionary” discovery about how hydrocarbon is formed, learning that animal and plant fossils are not necessary to form crude oil.
The discovery, the scientists say, means that the world will never run out of crude oil. Currently, theory states that crude oil is formed very slowly – over millions of years – from the remains of dead plants and animals. Buried under rock, over time the pressure and temperature of natural earth processes results in the creation of crude oil. But that theory is now old news, as the scientists, led by Vladimir Kutcherov, say they have proven that fossilized plants and animals are not needed to create hydrocarbons.
“Using our research we can even say where oil could be found in Sweden,”
Kutcherov told Science Daily….
Peak Oil might not be so peak, afterall.
September 18th, 2009 at 2:55 pm
On most Jewish holidays, except for Yom Kippur, the Torah says we are supposed to be happy, and one of the accepted ways to do so is to eat and drink.
Rosh HaShanah translates to “the head of the year” .The theory is that just like the head controls the body, so ones thoughts and actions on this day control the upcoming year. It is comparable to writing computer code on one day and that code is the basis upon which your system will operate throughout the remaining time frame. It also markes the anniversary of the creation of the world.
peace to all jews, non-jews, or otherwise…
September 18th, 2009 at 2:55 pm
Some will never learn anything because they understand everything too soon – THOMAS BLOUNT
A few more:
Complete MBA For Dummies
Thain’s Regret: Not Shopping at Ikea
Meredith Whitney: ‘Roaring’ Recovery? Unlikely
September 18th, 2009 at 2:57 pm
http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-demand.asp?video=37129475001&channel=VBLOG_BASTARDI&title=Debunking%20Global%20Warming%20%20in%20California’s%20Wildfires
Here is a video, with a climatologist, explaining why the Cali wildfires are not because of global warming and as a bonus, towards the end of the vid, actually has relevant data to prove the Global Warming scaremongerers are using crap data in their models.
Who wudda thunk.
September 18th, 2009 at 3:03 pm
CNN Poll: U.S. still in a serious recession Poll says 86% of Americans believe the U.S. is still in a recession, while Fed chairman is more optimistic.
Question to Fed Chairman: When are you coming back to earth?
September 18th, 2009 at 3:06 pm
BR reflected:
They tried to kill us, we escaped, let’s eat.
on the other hand:
————————–
From what I have read in history – “They tried to kill us, We killed them first, Let’s Eat.
~~~
BR: Let’s see Egypt, Roman empire, than a few centuries later the Spanish inquisition, than WWII — better check those history books . . .
September 18th, 2009 at 3:09 pm
Visited a house that has been off the market for one year. Foreclosed. Still off the market.
Maintenance man was there. Nice chat.
Of 25 houses he visited this week, 10 were foreclosed and off the market. Some quite nice. Showed me pics.
The monster is still hiding under the bed.
September 18th, 2009 at 3:14 pm
alfred e Says:
September 18th, 2009 at 3:09 pm
Of 25 houses he visited this week, 10 were foreclosed and off the market. Some quite nice. Showed me pics.
The monster is still hiding under the bed.
reply:
———-
But H Wanker, EricTyson, or F411 would counter your observation by proudly concluding that “If you can ignore a problem it’s not a problem. Headlines support us on this, too. They’re written by experts who quote experts.”
September 18th, 2009 at 3:15 pm
Forty-two states lost jobs last month, up from 29 in July, with the biggest net payroll cuts coming in Texas, Michigan, Georgia and Ohio.
The Labor Department also reported Friday that 27 states saw their unemployment rates increase in August, and 14 states and Washington D.C., reported unemployment rates of 10 percent or above.
Moderator? didn’t like the link, find the story on your own.
September 18th, 2009 at 3:17 pm
This doesn’t have anything to do with economics but I watch it quite a bit when I’m in a sour mood.
Watch the whole thing, there’s a surprise.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ePNWCniwgfo
September 18th, 2009 at 3:19 pm
arbitrage regulation 2.0
http://baselinescenario.com/2009/09/18/regulatory-arbitrage-2-0/
September 18th, 2009 at 3:19 pm
Thor Says:
September 18th, 2009 at 3:17 pm
Watch the whole thing, there’s a surprise.
reply:
————
Sweet.
September 18th, 2009 at 3:21 pm
Eric Tyson:
Your comment sounds like cock-eyed optimism: Sure you have cancer, but look at all of the weight you’re losing!
Just like the ghost fleet anchored somewhere in the Pacific is a sign of good things to come, because shipping rates are down. Just like the mega-surplus of homes for sale is good for the economy, because houses are less pricey (not more affordable) than they were at the hight of the boom. Just like high unemployment is good because it removes the payroll burden from businesses.
Lower lease rates won’t help the borrower or the lender who financed a “see through” commercial building (“see through” meaning no lease at all, ever), and the borrower can’t repay the loan. The lender, the borrower, and everybody else will pay for that stupidity (just like we did w/residential mortgages and RMBS).
The pundits who have been saying that commercial real estate was the next shoe to drop are calling for the impact of the CRE fiasco to begin in the latter half of this year (we just entered that period).
It might be “old news”, but it regards an event that has hardly begun. I’m w/Thor — there’s a lot to worry about in the CRE markets.
September 18th, 2009 at 3:22 pm
enjoy the high holidays BR- or high holy days- not sure which is more correct- anyway- thought this was worth a read-
“The Federal Housing Administration said Friday that its financial cushion will sink below mandatory levels for the first time in its 75-year history, but officials insisted the agency won’t need to be rescued . . . Under no circumstance will any taxpayer bailout be needed,” said David Stevens, the FHA’s commissioner. He also said the agency doesn’t expect to raise fees for borrowers, or curtail the number of loans it insures.”
hmmm . . . right . . .
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Govt-home-loan-agency-faces-apf-2908284556.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=
September 18th, 2009 at 3:28 pm
Marcus Aurelius: You’re more likely to get cancer and shorten your life by worrying so much – have a worrisome or worry-free weekend – your choice.
September 18th, 2009 at 3:29 pm
incomes falling
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/census/2009-09-17-young-people_N.htm
real estate bonds rally…real or memorex?
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/09_39/b4148062520617.htm?campaign_id=rss_lifestyle
DFW foreclosures up 34%
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/bus/stories/091809dnbusforeclosures.18d152859.html
September 18th, 2009 at 3:31 pm
regulating banker pay?
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/09/hamilton-on-regulating-banking-sector.html
September 18th, 2009 at 3:32 pm
and of course wages are just growing wonderfully well…..not
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2009/09/wages-are-barely-growing.html
September 18th, 2009 at 3:37 pm
Thor:
This is my pick-me-up (I’ve posted it before, many times, but it never fails to get me in a good mood). This is the entire scene (a few minutes long), and it’s getting hard to find on line due to copyright infringements.
The conversation about Lenin reminds me of some of the comment threads here.
http://vids.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=vids.individual&videoid=4198309
September 18th, 2009 at 3:42 pm
BR,
“They tried to kill us, we escaped, let’s eat.” — Nice Distillation~
Happy New Year, rolling over, in more ways than one, into 5770, may it be your best one, yet.
http://www.chabad.org/holidays/jewishnewyear/default_cdo/jewish/High-Holidays.htm
September 18th, 2009 at 3:42 pm
MA – hilarious!
September 18th, 2009 at 3:50 pm
Eric Tyson:
I’ve cut-out processed/cured meats just so I can worry more. I should be okay. Thanks for the concern.
September 18th, 2009 at 3:52 pm
When will collapsed U.S. real estate prices regain their prior peaks?
http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2009/09/california_the.html
Yikes if you live in dark blue and green states !
September 18th, 2009 at 3:52 pm
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/home-prices-wont-regain-peak-this-decade-moodys-2009-09-18
So much for MW’s “booming” housing markets
September 18th, 2009 at 3:54 pm
KM4 – Jinx!
September 18th, 2009 at 3:56 pm
BR- Even as I enjoy your humor this New Year, my early education of “days of awe” have taught me enough to humbly say ‘Thank You” for your wonderful work on this website. I have learned much from you and I admire your ethics above all else.
September 18th, 2009 at 7:50 pm
MA@3:37 –
starting around 3:00 it gets really funny
i am the walrus
sounds like the comment thread here half the time
September 18th, 2009 at 8:02 pm
the Big Lebowski-
one of the all time movie classics- too damn funny-
all’s i can say is “don’t fuck a stranger in the ass”
hahahahaha!!!!!!
September 18th, 2009 at 8:58 pm
BR, if you don’t strap on those big BEAR sized balls you’re known for and call the market for what it is, I for one think you may miss the call of the century. “Course that’s just me. A lone voice in the shrubbery longside venomous rabbits and other assorted comic devices of lesser known and dated British humour bits.
September 18th, 2009 at 10:16 pm
I got a memo in my paystub mailing this week. . . 5% paycut. . . effective last week. Thanks for the notice you bunch of pussies! Can’t even Say it to our faces beforehand so we can at least prepare and save. (except i’ve been saving for 2 years now from seeing the future. Nevermind i just worked a 55 hour week and secured 10 million dollars worth of revenue the week before)
Greenshoots, for the assholes i work for and their giant boats. Anybody hiring? Fuck Them.
September 18th, 2009 at 11:55 pm
@DiggidyDan:
Damn, that sucks.
September 19th, 2009 at 12:28 am
Yeah, that’s classy ain’t it Diggidy? That’s leadership like they teach it in the big B schools, no doubt.
September 19th, 2009 at 12:51 am
Yeah,
I don’t think they learned too much in business school. They’re too arrogant and stupid to realize they just fucked the company. I don’t think too many people are gonna work that hard anymore, and if the company fails, it fails. If it succeeds, the people who made it succeed aren’t going to forget that treatment and will leave at the first possible opportunity.
Sad thing is, even as it’s going down, I can foresee the majority stockholders just folding it and taking the retained earnings and dividing it up amongst themselves for retirement. I give it 3 years tops.
September 19th, 2009 at 2:55 am
Probably why the dog is wagging its tail whenever the banksters are taking the crowbar your door:
Priceless: How The Federal Reserve Bought The Economics Profession
Disgusting, but not surprising. It is back to the new math cash & paychecks > dissent
September 19th, 2009 at 3:39 am
Hey Dan,
At least you got notified. I just found out our drug payments for insurance were knocked back from 100% company pay to 80%. And how did I find out? When I got my reimbursement check back from the insurance company. After some digging they told me it was company initiated back to July 1st. No notice, no memo. I’m looking to backflush this to see who I can spill this on. This is probably one of the lowest things this company has ever done. Especially the way it was done. Fortunately, it is minor for me but it may not be for others in the company
These people never think they will need you. That there will always be someone around the corner to take your place. Let’s hope the boomer worker surplus ends sooner rather than later
September 19th, 2009 at 7:46 am
Life worked great no knowing you were jewish. I wouldn’t know what to do with that information. Why is it that people reveal that they are jewish or gay, but not roma nor heterosexual?
September 19th, 2009 at 9:10 am
HTCMSI,
you might want to check into that, this http://clusty.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&query=Employee+Benefits+Law , should give you an idea, to begin with..
~~
super_,
I think “Mrs. BP” was a give-away of his ‘hetero-’-status, as if it matters..
September 19th, 2009 at 2:02 pm
For you to say to your non-Jewish readers that “to sum up pretty much every holiday we have had, ‘They tried to kill us, we escaped, let’s eat’ ” is a disgusting denigration of the deaths of millions of Jews throughout history. I am Jewish, and for you to make a joke about our past because you are probably a glutton is absolutely unacceptable. One should never make a triviality of the deaths of one’s own, or any other race’s or religion’s past atrocities, is not acceptable. You should issue an immediate apology.
~~~
BR: “I am sorry that you have no sense of humor.”