Heading in Different Directions
Talk that the economy is on the road to recovery is growing louder. On Monday, for instance, MarketWatch reported that “economists say the recession is over.”
Of course, Wall Street has been quick to jump on the bandwagon. A recent Bloomberg survey of U.S. users, many of whom work in the financial industry, found that optimists on the economy nearly equaled pessimists for the first time since its Professional Confidence Index was introduced in November 2007.
Yet ordinary Americans aren’t buying it. In fact, a new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll reveals that 87% of those surveyed say the country remains in recession, a 13 percentage point jump from June’s tally.
Given how much closer-to-the-mark the average Joes have been during the past few years when it comes to reading the economic tea leaves , especially in comparison to those who are supposedly in the know, it makes sense to bet on the amateurs.
Source:
Americans Think Nation Still Mired in Recession, CNN Poll Finds
Paul Steinhauser
CNN.com, September 3, 2009
http://www.cnn.com/2009/US/09/03/economy.poll.recession/index.html
All Bad Things Must End – Economists Say Recession Is Over
Greg Robb
MarketWatch, September 1, 2009
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/recession-is-over-economists-say-2009-09-01
Global Confidence Increases on Signs Recession Is Nearing End
Shamim Adam
Bloomberg, August 13, 2009
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aLPMDBgb5c0Q
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September 3rd, 2009 at 1:07 pm
I hear that unemployeed people amuse themselves by taking polls…
Seriously, HOPE’N'DOPE has failed.
September 3rd, 2009 at 1:10 pm
“Yet ordinary Americans aren’t buying it.”
You mean the ordinary Americans that have a -2 percent savings rate and thought their $500,000 home in the middle of a Gilroy garlic field was going to appreciate at a 30% rate yoy?
Oh yeah…them.
September 3rd, 2009 at 1:24 pm
I relish the day when these arrogant Wall St. banking pricks join the rest of America in the Wal-MART checkout lines…
September 3rd, 2009 at 1:26 pm
…and with regards to the directions of the lines (on the graph)…
Hmm… I wonder which ones the pricks in Washington are paying attention to…
September 3rd, 2009 at 1:26 pm
See John Markham of MSN Money’s website on the relationship of the market with economic cycles.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/SuperModels/u-turn-is-path-to-recovery-profits.aspx
September 3rd, 2009 at 1:31 pm
Diderot’s right, I don’t know how much reliance i’d put on the results of the people. Having said that, I don’t trust most of the pros either. So basically I think Panzner is reading too much into this.
September 3rd, 2009 at 1:34 pm
@cvienne: And those same “economists” can join them/us. Then I’ll wonder how they’d feel about forecasting the recession being “over”.
September 3rd, 2009 at 1:47 pm
Gold going parabolic while the CPI plummets… interesting. GS left oil and found a new market to f*** with?
September 3rd, 2009 at 1:48 pm
let me see if I got this right:
By ‘professional’ you mean a dipshit too stupid to understand that if you lend money to people who have no way to pay it back, that it won’t have a good outcome.
Educated beyond their intelligence if you ask me.
September 3rd, 2009 at 1:51 pm
Obviously ordinary Americans who are losing their jobs and facing foreclosure are just part of the “failure caucus.”
September 3rd, 2009 at 1:53 pm
Gee what a surprise….the banks that got the blank gov check are feeling AOK!!
Anyone catch this??
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/316690/"The-Worst-of-All-Worlds%22-Don%27t-Believe-the-Recovery-Hype-Ortel-Says?tickers=^DJI,^GSPC,SPY,DIA,XLF,EEM,FXI&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=
Someone needs to tell Mr. Ortel to quit pissing in the punchbowl!
September 3rd, 2009 at 1:54 pm
@leftback
I’m going to go totally mental here and buy some ZSL at $5.90…
September 3rd, 2009 at 1:59 pm
@Mannwich
When all those economists are escaping the big cities in search of food, water and shelter, I’m going to welcome them onto my farm…
I’m going to make them hoe all the weeds, do all the back breaking labor, and at the end of the day when it comes time to feed them… I’m going to give them a tiny plate of potatoes, and a few niblets of corn…
I’m going to tell them… Don’t worry, the food recession is almost over, “green shoots” ahead… Go to bed, wake up early tomorrow, get ready for another days work…
HOPE & CHANGE are just around the next corner…
September 3rd, 2009 at 2:00 pm
clawbcak Says-
“Obviously ordinary Americans who are losing their jobs and facing foreclosure are just part of the “failure caucus.”
you’re right- the unemployed just don’t want America to succeed or they would get a job and pay their damn morgage-
shiftless losers
September 3rd, 2009 at 2:01 pm
cv says-
“I’m going to give them a tiny plate of potatoes, and a few niblets of corn…”
LMAO- like the niblets reference- tough to fit into normal conversation
September 3rd, 2009 at 2:02 pm
Does anybody have a quote on nat gas?
September 3rd, 2009 at 2:03 pm
GIMME GREEN SHOOTS BABY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
September 3rd, 2009 at 2:03 pm
Nice, cvienne. Might I suggest that in addition to offering them green shoots, if any of the Keynesians complain, just cut their potatoes into smaller pieces and tell them that now they have “more.”
September 3rd, 2009 at 2:05 pm
@clawback: LOL. Excellent. Post of the day, IMO.
September 3rd, 2009 at 2:07 pm
“I relish the day when these arrogant Wall St. banking pricks join the rest of America in the….”
unemployment lines… you can explain that the niblets are their “bonus”.
“Does anybody have a quote on nat gas?”
Yeah, it’s f***ing going back underground, mate. There’s yer quote. Some prop desk must be LONG gold and SHORT natty gas today. The strip club has been really busy all day.
Anyone got an opinion on how the NFP number may be gamed tomorrow in the Great American Casino?
September 3rd, 2009 at 2:08 pm
Thanks, Mannwich. From you, that’s an honor. I still like the idea off Krugman eating his “niblets of corn”, though.
September 3rd, 2009 at 2:09 pm
After listening to market punkits and such experts for 16 years now, there is an undying believe that there will always be BUYERS………the if you build it they will come crowd, with no concern for the costs to build, maintain, promote, and too keep em coming……….the main problem i see if on this board we are representative of the upper middle class, and or solid middle class you can almost bet it is the same feeling worldwide due to money correlating with education, meaning simply we are no longer buying the BS and holding steady, ie, have zero demand for new credit, and without that and jobs, well, not likely we go far.
September 3rd, 2009 at 2:09 pm
These people have creamed corn for brains…
You are what you eat!
September 3rd, 2009 at 2:14 pm
NATURAL GAS FUTR (USD/MMBtu) 2.535 -0.180 -6.63% 13:59
Cliff diving, baby! Lobsters are quoted as … market.
September 3rd, 2009 at 2:16 pm
Nat gas is around 2.55
September 3rd, 2009 at 2:19 pm
Waiting for a $5-6 down day on oil. Been waiting a couple of days. Thoughts? Early? Probably more towards 20th?
September 3rd, 2009 at 2:20 pm
Here’s a chart of the canadian natural gas etf that tracks natti coming out of alberta.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GAS.TO&t=1y&l=off&z=m&q=l&c=
that’s one ugmo chart. I wouldn’t be stepping in front of that.
September 3rd, 2009 at 2:23 pm
My guess would be that pros are using the hard data, and not relying on their anecdotal evidence (which is the right thing to do in their case). The hard data would look sunnier because of stimulus funds, whereas amateurs would rely more on their own experiences and those of friends that tell them that it’s obviously harder to find a job, and businesses are struggling.
September 3rd, 2009 at 2:23 pm
here they are..the men in the know. the complete list of fraudsters who took down the fianncial system destroyed their companies and reaped the rewards of ungodly sums. the numbers are simply staggering and an outright disgrace. there will be no recovery as long as this continues
Company CEO in 2008 (mlns) (mlns)
AIG (AIG.N) Martin Sullivan $ 13.27 $ 26.94
Citigroup (C.N) Vikram Pandit $ 38.24 $ 93.71
BofA (BAC.N) Kenneth Lewis $ 9.00 $ 36.47
JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N) James Dimon $ 35.72 $ 76.09
Wells Fargo (WFC.N) John Stumpf $ 9.04 $ 32.10
Goldman Sachs (GS.N) Lloyd Blankfein $ 42.95 $183.63
Morgan Stanley (MS.N) John Mack $ 1.24 $ 35.66
PNC Financial (PNC.N) James Rohr $ 8.55 $ 24.79
U.S. Bancorp (USB.N) Richard Davis $ 6.77 $ 20.13
SunTrust Banks (STI.N) James Wells III $ 8.09 $ 21.30
Capital One (COF.N) Richard D. Fairbank $ 0.07 $ 15.35
Regions (RF.N) C. Dowd Ritter $ 3.76 $ 13.64
Fifth Third (FITB.O) Kevin Kabat $ 2.98 $ 7.05
American Express (AXP.N) K.I. Chenault $ 42.94 $ 73.49
BB&T (BBT.N) John Allison IV $ 4.69 $ 11.83
Bank of NY Mellon (BK.N) Robert Kelly $ 11.96 $ 41.56
KeyCorp (KEY.N) Henry Meyer $ 4.45 $ 17.06
CIT Group (CIT.N) Jeffrey Peek $ 4.23 $ 12.73
Comerica (CMA.N) Ralph Babb, Jr. $ 3.15 $ 8.65
State Street (STT.N) Ronald Logue $ 24.52 $ 66.22
TOTAL $262.34 $791.45
AVERAGE $ 13.81 $ 41.66
(Reporting by Steve Eder)
September 3rd, 2009 at 2:24 pm
cvienne,
check the Nov futures vs Oct.
September 3rd, 2009 at 2:24 pm
@Cohen
Thanks Cohen… $2.04 is inching closer (where I’ll hedge in my next 10 years usage)…
Free GAS baby!
September 3rd, 2009 at 2:26 pm
please note the obscenity of pandit who actually testified in front of congress that he was paid 1 dollar. muliply that by 93 million. almost every bank on this list remains completely insolvent. this list should be past on to every living breathing american if not the entire globe
September 3rd, 2009 at 2:28 pm
That table does bring one word to mind… clawbacks !!!
LB would like a vigorous dollar rally, please, and we’ll take that with a side of toasted gold bugs. It was a day or two of COLD STEEL for LB but we still feel that there will be selling of the yellow metal. Kissing $999 was too poetic.
September 3rd, 2009 at 2:33 pm
@cvienne
how did you arrive at $2.04?
At some point I’ll want to go long nat gas but the fundies suck, the technicals suck. The positive I can see is that nat gas wells, especially unconvential gas, have huge decline rates in the first year so with the cut back in drilling and given that a large chunk of the gas produced is from wells that are only a few years old (as they get replaced quickly due to depletion), the market should come into balance at some point. I’m not looking for much but a bounce from low 2s to 4 I’d take for a trade anyday just not sure when to get in.
September 3rd, 2009 at 2:34 pm
Wow, nat gas just has an anvil tied to it. People have been trying to pick a bottom on this for 9 months or so, and continue to get sliced by the accelerating knife. And UNG’s flaws have only added to the peril.
September 3rd, 2009 at 2:35 pm
“just not sure when to get in”
That’s been the question for months, eh? Who’d have thunk it?
September 3rd, 2009 at 2:36 pm
something reeks in europe short term interest rate futures have really moved higher the past few days. does gold smell something or is it just a technical move. if it were stocks the media would be having orgasms
September 3rd, 2009 at 2:39 pm
if the yen were rallying today along with gold and european short rates i said a blowup was eminent
September 3rd, 2009 at 2:43 pm
“does gold smell something or is it just a technical move”
Or is it just a PUMP and DUMP? One more technical rally in the SPX tomorrow on the NFP number? August is not a huge month for layoffs so we may get a mild number and a snap rally. After that, it’s over.
September 3rd, 2009 at 2:51 pm
Barry:
I am not sure that the graph is a good representation of what is portrayed in the article. The % of economists that think the economy is in a recession is growing and the amount that believe things are getting or will get better is declining.
IN ACTUALITY THE EXPERTS AND JOE AMERICANS ARE AGREEING AT A HIGHER RATE THAN PERVIOUSLY. Be careful of graphs.
September 3rd, 2009 at 2:52 pm
good little article- couldn’t have said it better myself-
“The Worst of All Worlds”: Don’t Believe the Recovery Hype, Ortel Says
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/316690/“The-Worst-of-All-Worlds”-Don’t-Believe-the-Recovery-Hype-Ortel-Says?tickers=
September 3rd, 2009 at 3:03 pm
ahab
Bad link. Try this: http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/316690/%22The-Worst-of-All-Worlds%22-Don%27t-Believe-the-Recovery-Hype-Ortel-Says?tickers=^DJI,^GSPC,SPY,DIA,XLF,EEM,FXI
September 3rd, 2009 at 3:09 pm
@Cohen
Sorry Cohen, I just got busy…
I think I was turned onto the $2.04 target by Andy T (who came up with some nice technical scenarios)…
Understand that my interest in the $2.04 is WAY MORE than trading… It’s VERY LONG TERM… You could consider it an INSTITUTIONAL play…
I use nat gas for my truck and have CNG containers on my property… At the lows, I can lock in long term contracts, and then even hedge my usage by buying the commodity at a low price…
Essentially, as the price goes up versus my usage… I’m hedged off the commodity…
This is the ultimate Lloyd Blankfein storing barrels of oil in his basement scenario…
Trouble is, Lloyd has it wrong… After a minor trend reversal in commodities here, THEN inflation will kick in next year or so… By next summer, we’ll be looking at an even WEAKER economy than we have now, AND, $4+ gasoline…
It will be then that the nimrods in Washington realize that we need to switch our vehicles to nat gas…
Better lock in your supply early!
September 3rd, 2009 at 3:11 pm
from yahoo-
“1.3 million to lose jobless benefits by year’s end”
i wonder how long you can extend unemploymenr benefits- there comes a time when it is just a charade-because there is no-one hiring-
then what?
thx for correcting the link onlooker- Yahoo has some ridiculously long URL’s
September 3rd, 2009 at 3:11 pm
@leftback (2:43)
Agreed 100%
September 3rd, 2009 at 3:20 pm
@cvienne
That’s my other potential catalyst, if the NATGAS legilsation gets pushed through with a big mandate to convert trucks and fleets to natty.
September 3rd, 2009 at 3:24 pm
@Cohen
When gasoline hits $4 bucks, bank on it!
Many fleets are already on natty… There’s hardly a public infrastructure yet to support it (although converting a regular car or truck to CNG is a cinch…
The US Dept of Energy has a place you can do a lookup to see if there are any stations that do CNG fillups for the public… It’s a start… Otherwise, if you have land, you can just get a big gas cylinder put right on your property and be your own filling station…
It will come in handy when “gasoline rationing” hits town…
http://www.afdc.energy.gov/afdc/locator/stations/
September 3rd, 2009 at 3:34 pm
@CV: Here’s some ski-jumping for you:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=ung
It’s unbelievable how many value traps there have been in this market. One more pump of equities tomorrow, and then the long Summer of Hope will be over. No more wearing white, going long FNM or buying small gold miners.
Crude oil has an appointment with $65 and gold is going back to $950. The D-train™ is coming out of the sidings.
September 3rd, 2009 at 3:42 pm
@LB
Looks like the Holmenkollen!
September 3rd, 2009 at 3:44 pm
Wait… I’d better trademark that…
cvienne owns the following technical indicator…
The Holmenkollen Formation™
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=ung
September 3rd, 2009 at 3:46 pm
Green Chutes.
September 3rd, 2009 at 3:51 pm
Nice little end of day mini pump. A throw-back to the old days of spring/summer of ’09.
September 3rd, 2009 at 3:52 pm
Beautiful!!!
Gun that close Lloyd!… Gap up tomorrow AM! 1014-1016… Sold to you!
September 3rd, 2009 at 3:52 pm
cv 3:24pm thanks dude.
September 3rd, 2009 at 3:55 pm
Note from Blankfiend to Prop Desk: Sell EVERYTHING @ 9.45am tomorrow and leave in the black helicopter.
September 3rd, 2009 at 3:57 pm
Oh this is a dandy! :-)
Just what I wanted to see!
September 3rd, 2009 at 4:01 pm
I feel MUCH better now. I was starting to lose faith in the market. But that pump was awesome. Feels like home.
September 3rd, 2009 at 4:03 pm
Picked up a smidgen of FAZ, expect to add shorts early tomorrow morning on BETTER THAN EXPECTED news.
Man, you really have to be cynical to trade this market. SPX 1015 tomorrow would complete some nice dandruff.
September 3rd, 2009 at 4:03 pm
Tufte hates you.
September 3rd, 2009 at 4:11 pm
i wonder if the late day pump has anything to do with folks trying to get in before the release of info on NF payrolls and UE rate tomorrow-
maybe there is some expectation that it will be BTE
September 3rd, 2009 at 4:12 pm
@LB
I was looking at FAZ too… I was very close to pulling the trigger…
I think around $25.18 is the 3lb number (above) on a WEEKLY basis for a close tomorrow to suggest a reversal…
I have $25.07 and around $24.50 as a “hope for” number to pick up the “ski-daddy”-lers running for cover…
September 3rd, 2009 at 4:15 pm
@ahab
I’m not being facetious towards you ahab by this comment…
But nobody gives a flying F about The B(L)S numbers tomorrow… However, it will be used as a cover to blow more smoke up peoples asses going in to their barbecues…
September 3rd, 2009 at 4:19 pm
FAZ is a dirty skank… I think she gave me the clap.
September 3rd, 2009 at 4:19 pm
bbq’s mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
September 3rd, 2009 at 4:24 pm
@CV: Yes, LB likes the idea that BRIAN will be pitching to JOHNNY one more time on Monday and placing those orders just before the ARSE falls out of the market. Keep an eye open for those Holiday weekend FX market moves.
September 3rd, 2009 at 4:25 pm
cv-
i think people will sell into BTE – i think WTE . . .well that could start the after labor day sell off a bit early- no?
September 3rd, 2009 at 4:26 pm
I-Man, if we ever have an Oregon micro-brew, LB can tell you tales of COLD STEEL from today. That’s what this market is all about, COLD STEEL and THE PUMP.
September 3rd, 2009 at 4:46 pm
cv. They need to change the name of UNG to D-UNG. It’s such a pile of crap.
You can really “feel” the setup can’t you…maybe a decent sideways/up day tomorrow…and the BBQs with Brian the Broker….that’s funny
Brian: “‘ BAC is ‘en fuego.’ You know that Paulsen is long that right?! He’s in for billions. BAC looks great right here.”
or,
“GLD is rock’in man! You’ve got to get some of that. Inflation’s coming. You must own some GLD.”
September 3rd, 2009 at 5:00 pm
Really like this chart BTW. Terrific encapsulation of what many of us are “feeling.” There some odd things going on out here in the hinterlands that’s different than what the “pros” are seeing.
There were a lot signs of a slowdown BEFORE the market crashed last year….I’m siding with Joe 6 Pack here. He’s either a) not buying stuff he can’t afford or b) maxing out the last credit card, preparing for a BK/default.
Either way, it’s not a good outcome.
September 3rd, 2009 at 5:01 pm
@AT: LOL. You have to be careful at the barbecue, too much liquidity fuel and you can get burned.
“En fuego” is great, it really captures that ESPN announcer schtick that Brian is so good at. A broker you can have a beer with, even after he lost you so much money on BSC and LEH. What a guy. Still crazy after all these years.
Gold running up to $999 today was classic, you could just feel the deflation when it failed to hit $1000. Parabolicus interruptus. I’m telling you, Andy, there was a lot of COLD STEEL, but that’s OK. We like a challenge.
September 3rd, 2009 at 5:09 pm
@Andy T,
Cvienne mentioned you’re eyeing $.204 on natty as a key technical level. How are you arriving at that? Not trying to call you out or anything, I just can’t wrap my head around a decent area to get long.
September 3rd, 2009 at 5:09 pm
sorry $2.04
September 3rd, 2009 at 5:12 pm
@lb. I never shared this story, but it’s absolutely true. My wifes IRA has been 100% cash for a few years now. Brian the broker from Citi calls last year and the conversation went exactly like this:
“Look, I see you’re in cash, and it’s not earning much. The Lehman and Wamu short term bonds are trading 12-15%!!! If you don’t believe Lehman or Wamu is going out of business, then these things are a steal.”
I swear….that’s exactly what he said….
You can probably guess my response to him….
I told my wife: “I’m pretty sure Lehman Bros. and Wamu are going out of business.”
September 3rd, 2009 at 5:18 pm
Cohen. I haven’t put out a NG issue yet, because it’s going to be a “complicated” bullish call. I see NG bottoming by mid-Oct. $2.09 would be a huge A=C target from a major formation the last few years. But, it’s not really “tradable” because of the contango in the market. You can’t buy the Oct contract at $2.50 or $2.00 or whatever because the Oct contract is worthless. So, trading Natty from the long side is going to be tough, but I’m getting rather bullish come October and November.
September is a very popular month to put a low in on NG.
Also, if the only way for you to trade NG is the UNG, then it’s really difficult….because those people have set themselves up for failure.
A.
September 3rd, 2009 at 5:22 pm
I’d be looking at GAS.TO to go long nat gas. Looks like its picking up some volume from UNG since volume has been up the last couple of months and today it did almost 7x its 3 month avg. volume.
September 3rd, 2009 at 5:23 pm
@AT: LB has a friend who is holding Morgan Stanley 5-year paper to maturity, bought it last November – the rate is 7% or so, and it may turn out to have been a good call. But for me, the concept of being so sure that MS would exist 5 years later wasn’t worth 500bps over Treasuries, so I’ve been in IG corporates through a fund instead, where I can spread the risk and get out if I feel like it.
Still seems that there is so much denial, bullshit and criminality out there that has to be washed away by one huge overpowering deflationary wave of deleveraging and panic, drowning the unwary and cleansing the landscape.
September 3rd, 2009 at 5:33 pm
Left:
Anytime you are out here I’ll take you up on that. And vice versa for NYC I hope.
I almost pulled a reverse “come down off the ledge/be cool” post today on CV bagging some ZSL earlier…
but I actually think you guys are right, albeit a tad early.
Fading the GLD breakout from the wedge is the “pro play” for sure… getting long it looks WAY too easy.
SLV looks like its getting a little more juice, but same deal… I think its a fake.
But I am glad that I am not in on this steel for once… my P/L cant take it anymore. If I keep cool, I might pull a double off this SCO trade… provided I dont get all cheapass and try to scrape premature profits. Being short crude here is rather relaxing for me.
UNG is a dog btw… I would be short that in a heartbeat. Holy cantango.
September 3rd, 2009 at 5:50 pm
“especially in comparison to those who are supposedly in the know, it makes sense to bet on the amateurs.”
Absolutely. First, they don’t THINK they know it all. Second, their objective is personal, NOT fraternal. Third, they have a fresh perspective NOT one which is stale and outdated. Fourth, they’re willing to try something different NOT the same old investment strategies, over and over again.
September 3rd, 2009 at 5:52 pm
LB has been checking the golden blogosphere today and the bugs are oscillating wildly about imminent blast-off.
One would have to say that one has seen this before and it looks like a classic Pump and Dump may be on here.
SCO worked out for LB, and we may go back there, but right now we have another project. The macro picture is just not that bullish for gold, with the dollar on strong support and QE supposedly ending, with inflation and deflation apparently both tame in the near future – and you’d have to agree the history of steep sell-offs in gold is tempting. We recently estimated the leverage factor in crude oil to the carry trade currencies (yen/$) to be between 7:1 and 10:1, so a 1-2% move up in the dollar might cause some real panic among the bugs.
September 3rd, 2009 at 10:58 pm
both my posts got ate
weird
September 4th, 2009 at 7:23 am
[...] Pros versus Joes on the economic recovery…huge divergence in opinions on where we’re headed. (TBP) [...]
September 4th, 2009 at 7:49 am
[...] wrong. Here we are again, at another possible fork — and we see (as Mike Panzner pointed out yesterday) that once again, the cabal of perennial optimists are bullish, while John Q. Public is decidely [...]