We are still long a number of names I have discussed in the past, but we recently added QIDs and SDS to our managed accounts as a hedge.

The technicians amongst you who pay attention to Japanese candlestick charts will note that yesterday was an “Outside Down Day.”

While no one knows whether this will be a collapse or a mere shallow consolidation, I suspect the latter — but we have had a huge run since March, and our managed accounts have profits that require protecting . . .

Category: Technical Analysis

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

213 Responses to “Hedging Long Accounts”

  1. karen says:

    well, i don’t know outside down from upside down but i do know bearish engulfing when i see it, lol.

  2. AmenRa says:

    @karen

    Beat me to it. LOL. The weekly looks like it’s forming a bearish harami.

  3. leftback says:

    I always suspected you were smarter than Harry Wanger, Barry.

    Gold $1000 is now an interesting level as an indicator of the health of the dollar carry trade. If gold can’t break through above that level again, then we may have seen tops in a number of assets. Note that long bonds rallied since June, then Shanghai crumbled first, then crude, and now the Government Supplemental Liquidity Program, I mean US stock market. The reverse repo talk seems to be the big trigger. Durables tomorrow, last one was hot and it’s a famously noisy series, so I am bearish here as we get some post clunkers reversion to the mean.

  4. BobDobalina says:

    I don’t know much about JC’s. But in a search to learn more I found some notes in May 2009 of a rare Quintuple outside-down day with this from William Kurtz:

    “It isn’t very often that we see a quintuple outside day, by either style of measurement. To see a quintuple outside day in both styles on the same day must be exceedingly rare.

    We think that today’s patterns, and especially today’s pattern in the NASDAQ Composite, are bearish signals of considerable importance. Almost certainly, Investors who become aware of this highly unusual and bearish pattern will recognize it as a reason to review once again their portfolios and exposure to risk.”

    And look what ensued from June through today. What makes this different in JC analysis?

    I do think there are many other technical and fundamental reasons to bearish, though.

  5. phb says:

    Why not long puts instead of QID and SDS?

  6. Mannwich says:

    No way. I’m buying this dip…….with leverage. Per Wanger’s counsel.

  7. HarryWanger says:

    As I have stated regarding T/A, the only one I pay any attention to is short term candlesticks. As I’ve said, they do display a psychological look at the market. That being said, yesterdays pattern certainly looks as though we’ll see the shallow 2-4% pull back – we haven’t had one in a while and we are certainly due.

    Look at the chart as a whole and you can see how healthy and needed these shallow pull backs are. Each dip sets up for the next move higher. I would be very careful with QID or SDS here unless you got in yesterday and plan to close the position quickly.

  8. Mannwich says:

    Wanger = Borchers. Now I’m sure of it. Borchers was saying the exact same things last year before conveniently disappearing right before (or while) the roof caved in.

  9. catman says:

    Lot of red today. One of my shorthands says that selling on fridays indicates a fear of holding over the weekend and should lead to more selling in the next week.

  10. Mannwich says:

    Some trash stocks that had run up like crazy in recent months (I own one of them after selling half my holdings for a nice gain a month or so ago) taking a beating today. This is just a preview of what’s to come too.

  11. AmenRa says:

    @HW

    A 3.49& pullback using weekly closes will cause a reversal in the weekly TLB. If it gets confirmed by another lower weekly close then the trend is changing. A third lower weekly close means women and children first.

  12. leftback says:

    Harry, do you understand the significance of reverse repos and phasing out of the TALF program? The hot money spigot is being slowly turned off here, and Uncle Ben is putting the helicopter away for a few months.

    There will be rallies, but a reversion to the mean is quite likely as we have oscillated wildly around the 200 DMA this last year or so. With the spigot off, it is more than likely that the top is in for the year.

  13. HarryWanger says:

    Dow could certainly pull back to 9500 area which would put it at 3.5% from its closing high. That’s a great area to add or initiate long positions. Psychologically nothing has changed from buying on dips. More managers need to get in and the retail investor will also use a pull back to leap in. The trend is strongly upward on the indices.

  14. HarryWanger says:

    leftback: I do understand the significance of reverse repos (which won’t happen) and phasing out TALF. I think what you may fail to realize is that this is positive. If the money is not required, great! Put it away for a rainy day. I’d rather have money at the ready for any unexpected crisis than to burn through it now as the economy is clearly healing.

  15. AmenRa says:

    @HW

    A Dow close below 9505.96 will reverse the weekly TLB. It would have to have a weekly close above 9820.20 to negate the reversal.

  16. Hedging is, always, a good Idea, helps keeps one ‘out of the bushes’.

    Puts are, still, Cheap, and fading in-the-money Calls on some the, recent, mo-mo/ Nifty50 Stocks should show merit, as well.

  17. rustum says:

    Are these etf are good for long term holding. Or they are only for day time trading. I am thinking of getting into some short etf in 401k.

  18. AmenRa says:

    This article says that QE hasn’t started yet but is about to begin.
    The US quantitative easing has just begun

  19. ben22 says:

    rustum,

    good luck with that, no 401k’s offer short etf’s. Well, none that I have ever seen. Last I checked those weren’t really on the “to sell” list for Fidelity, Vanguard or Tiaa-Cref.

    sounds like you might need to do a little homework before jumping into one of them.

  20. techy says:

    i have said again and again…

    only way out of this debt driven hole is inflate your way out….fight deflation with printing press.

    unless there is a huge currency crisis or a major stand off…….I wont count on stopped printing press. By hook or by crook the government has to be the spender of last resort…the employer of last resort and the credit provider of last resort.

    but when it comes to stock market…it is too much speculation for me to fathom….so i am still mostly cash.

    100% up and down….with a small change in fundamental is too much volatility to be able to make sense of it.

  21. call me ahab says:

    Wanger-

    if you say indices one more time i am going to hunt you down-

    rustum-

    any inverse or 2x+ long is not for long term positions- only tracks daily performance

  22. call me ahab says:

    b22 aka mcfearless-

    if rustum has a self directed 401K – as i do- he can buy QID all day long

  23. HarryWanger says:

    rustum: I agree with ahab and Mark about the short and ultra ETFs. I use them short term – especially the ultras. Although they have done so well for me over the summer that I tend to hold them longer now and add on shallow pull backs.

  24. rustum says:

    Thanks for the info. I linked my 401k to brokerage link. I was under the impression that i can buy or sell anything in that.

  25. ben22 says:

    techy,

    you don’t beat deflation in a credit based system. reflation is the only way EVERYONE knows to get out of this other than some pie in the sky ideas on how green energy and some unknown technology breakthrough will get us out, possible, yes, probable, ???. Why are people confident we reflate, that consumers will bring trillions more in debt to the household balance sheet, a consumer, that in general is aging, retiring, and switching to fixed income. the Fed tried to provide “liquidity” since 07, and we crashed. Sounds like a crowded idea to me. Government spending retards growth. As for employer of last resort, they’ve been doing that for 10 years now, look at public vs private job growth.

    All that said, I think you are smart for staying mostly cash fwiw.

    I seem to be in a tiny little corner with a select few on what is going on here. I’m headed back to that corner.

  26. ben22 says:

    rustum,

    You might have some sort of self directed 401k so it’s possible you can get the ETF’s but you need to know how they work before you buy. jmo. Use Mark’s link.

    You might also want to start with a regular short etf without leverage if you can get them so you understand how it works. Going to cash because you don’t like the market, and going short, are two very different things.

    Good luck.

  27. Onlooker from Troy says:

    “Going to cash because you don’t like the market, and going short, are two very different things.”

    Ain’t that the truth. A truth many have learned the hard way of late.

  28. leftback says:

    Mean reversion, ladies and gentlemen. Keep that in mind. Wanger, your grip of macroeconomic issues seems weak. The pumping has to take a breather here, the greenback is not the only currency that needs to be debased, look at King’s comments today and the effect on GBP. Sure there will be more pumping later, no question of that. Right now America may have to bend over for the winter while others ease a little bit. LB does think that all the “bond market apocalypse” people are off the mark here.

    Harry, you are undoubtedly a successful mo-mo and I am sure you have enough good sense to bail when the trend changes. Right now we are in a no-man’s land until a new direction emerges, but all eyes remain on the dollar. This is not a normal market, Harry, the sources of liquidity here are quite different from a healthy bull market, and deflationary forces continue to press in on us in a way that most have not seen before.

  29. call me ahab says:

    b22-

    no need to go off in a corner my man- you have been pretty much on the money with most of your observations-

    wish i would have followed you and leftback on your bullish calls in March- it was brave to be a bull then

  30. Protect them with collars. You still get upside paraticipation, though it’s limited

  31. call me ahab says:

    a little tidbit from ZH-

    “According to the BLS, the exhaustion rate, or the number of people who have used up their benefits, and will no longer be receiving unemployment checks, has hit an all time high of 52.40% for August. This is a staggering number, and whats worse it was grown in practically a linear fashion with not even a hope of a second (third or fourth) derivative green shoot in sight. In fact, the deterioration in “employability” is accelerating. ”

    if these folks drop off the rolls- think how much better U3 looks- not a green shoot?

  32. leftback says:

    Trapdoor, baby !! Look out below !!

  33. cvienne says:

    It’s NEVER good when they start on a Thursday (going into end or quarter)…

    WORSE…When it actuallt started Wednesday afternoon after FOMC statements and a blowoff top…

  34. cvienne says:

    WORSE…

    When it’s during a week that the Japanese markets are closed, and there is the RH – YK break…

    This could go on through next Tuesday…

  35. cvienne says:

    @BR

    I just KNOW those SDS & QID’s were put on last week…

    Are your computers Jewish, I wonder…or not? – jk

  36. franklin420d says:

    Cvienne, If Mr.Ritholtz’s computers were Jewish, they would have to coshier correct? Would that make them dill computers? Oh, man your getting a dill…..

  37. cvienne says:

    @franklin420d

    I was just thinking about you this morning…

    A trivia question came up in which I was thinking about “Sonny Sixkiller” as being the answer, and for some reason my mind thought of you… :-)

  38. ben22 says:

    ahab,

    Just ask yourself how brave it is be bearish now, or better yet, a dollar bull!

  39. HarryWanger says:

    ben22: I think you should rephrase the question as “ask yourself how foolish it is to be bearish now”. The only pull back we’ve seen on the indices has been very shallow since July. It’s very typical bull market behaviour of back filling. Until that trend breaks to a more decisive move, it’s pretty foolish to be bearish and face that momentum.

  40. leftback says:

    The 7-year auction was a huge success, predictable as the 5-yr pre-FOMC offering had a lukewarm reception – so much for the Death of Treasuries… might be some give back in these markets over the next couple of days.

    BTW, those who bought TLT calls or large piles of the 10-yr note at 3.50% on Wednesday – KA-CHING!

    The role of liquidity from the FED has been much debated in recent weeks. Now we might get to see who has been holding up the market. Prop desks using helicopter money, or JOHNNY RETAIL and other clients of BRIAN the broker, not to mention, the might and leverage of WANGER. Surely he is not that large. Only time will tell.

  41. franklin420d says:

    @Cvienne
    Ahhh, you waz think’n of me, thanks man, brings a tear to my eye. I am too young have actually seen Sonny play, I hear he was pretty good. I used to work in a store that took phone payments, if the person did not bring in their receipt we would write one up for them, long story made short, one day I was writing up a receipt (for a tribal member) and asked the persons name – their last name was Whitekiller. Hmmmmm wonder how you get a name like that…….

  42. wally says:

    Wanger is a large as he needs to be.

  43. Mannwich says:

    BUY those dips!!! No wait, SELL Mortimer, SELLLLL!!!

  44. franklin420d says:

    HarryWagner – Were you around these parts when Sonny Sixkiller played ball?

  45. leftback says:

    Harry, got stops? :-)

  46. call me ahab says:

    Wanger-

    read this edit of a sentence from your post @1:37-

    “the only pull back we’ve seen has been shallow since July”

    perfectly understandable- correct? the indices are not pulling back- the stock market is pulling back- the index only reflecting that fact. So- you use the word “indices” either because you do not understand this simple fact or you think it makes you sound intelligent-

    so which is it- and be honest

  47. emmanuel117 says:

    (wonders how long it will take for HW to move the goalposts from -4%)

  48. cvienne says:

    @emmanuel117

    What’d it take? about 7 trading hours to get that 4% dip?

    Sounds like a bunch of “conviction longs” in this market… What do they say? Stairs up…Elevator down…

  49. leftback says:

    The Bears Are Back in Town

    [apologies to Phil Lynott and Thin Lizzy]

    Guess who just got back today?
    Them wild-eyed bears that had been away
    Haven’t changed, haven’t much to say
    But man, I still think them cats are crazy

    They were asking if you were around
    How you was, where you could be found
    Told them you were trading downtown
    Driving all the old men crazy

    Spread the word around
    Guess who’s back in town
    You spread the word around

    Friday close, they’ll be dressed to kill
    Down at Benny’s bar and grill
    The Spoos will flow and blood will spill
    And if the bears want to sell, you’d better let em

    That jukebox in the corner blasting out my favorite song,
    The nights are getting colder, and it won’t be long
    Won’t be long till October comes
    Now that the bears are here again

    The bears are back in town
    The bears are back in town
    Spread the word around
    The bears are back, the bears are back

    (guitar solo fade….)

  50. ben22 says:

    @Harry,

    A “pro” like you should know that bearish doesn’t equal ultrashort. Only fools on blogs think that when someone says I’m bearish it means they are all in short. You aren’t a fool are you? I’ve been bearish for a long time, but was still smart enough to get long, and post about here, not the Yahoo message boards, months ago. As for this looking like a bull market to you, looks like a classic bear market rally to me. Keep on keepin on buddy.

  51. cacerolo says:

    I would not take today’s movement as a downtrend yet. Everything is so manipulated, that maybe Blackfein wants to send some signals to the G20 about financial regulations. If you get too tough the market can fall quickly, so keep giving me more money for free because I have not gotten yet my big bonus. It is weird that just before the G20 meeting the market is going to have the worst few days in several months. It just doesn’t fit to me. Just when they were going to proclaim the final victory the market has a terrible day. I believe banksters are behind yesterday close and today’s action. They want governments to keep thing as lately ( free money, no more regulations, regardless what is going on with the economy), the trading is good for them why to change anything.

  52. rustum says:

    I am able to trade QID in my 401k by accepting leverage/inverse purchase agreement. Sorry for asking lot of questions. So far, i have tried investing with few Indian ADR’s in 401k.

  53. HarryWanger says:

    franklin420: No I do not know who SonnySixKiller is

    leftback: I use stops and keep placing them at 4% below the closing highs throughout this uptrend

    ahab: I understand the difference between the market and indices. I use indices since they deviate relative to each other on occasion. Today is one of those days: Look at COMP vs. DJIA

    cvienne: DJIA is only down 1.3% from its recent closing high. Not 4%. And your link is full of pop up crap.

  54. leftback says:

    Oil under $66, not very growth-y…. at last a commodity begins to pay attention to the FUNDIES.

    cacerolo: The banksters made money long with borrowed money from the FED (taxpayers), and they recapitalized by selling stock to retail jackasses, now they can make money short and shore up the balance sheets while also reducing risk and deleveraging at the same time. We had the hand signals in March from Obama and a week or so ago from Timmy. All one has to do is pay attention. Manipulated market? Well, yes, there is no other.

    When all the DOLLAR SHORTS and HEDGERS try to get out of this ONE TRADE at once it’s going to be a bloody mess. You don’t seriously think Blankfein’s boys are still LONG COPPER, GOLD and AIG, do you?

  55. cvienne says:

    @HW

    We’re just having fun with you Harry… (We are permitted to do so, aren’t we? After all, it’s like a 1 day in 10 occurrence lately)…

    And I haven’t heard ANYONE, including myself, say we’re going to 600 right here right now… We’re simply relieved at getting a correction that, perhaps, has the initial appearance of meaning something…

  56. Vermont Trader says:

    good idea.. i think it will be a hell of a fight and would expect nothing less but i think we see SPX 1000 before 1100…

    i’m 2x net short and my performance demand is that the market drop quickly with no material bounces that allow other shorts to enter the market .

    i always keep an intraday chart on my wall of the 87 crash to remind me that half the losses were in the last hours.. of coures, i have no idea if we will get a push today…

    i think a really good post would be to look at some of the recent secondaries prices and how close they are too being busted as of 2:45..

    PALM 20 cents away. ETFC, busted, cx 17 cents away, AMR busted, SFD buted, HBAN busted, GNW, 25cents, ABX, busted,

    others to watch that are right on the edge include.. PAA, LCC, ONB,

  57. HarryWanger says:

    cvienne: Perfectly understandable but we’re not even at 1.5% from the closing high of a couple of days ago. There is no true catalyst to move this lower than a shallow pull back. I honestly cannot think of anything outside of a major external event that will push the indices any lower than that. Can anyone truly identify a near term catalyst for a bigger correction than 4%??

  58. rustum says:

    Any idea why markets are ignoring BDI. It is slowly going towards to 2000 from the recent peak of 4000.

  59. call me ahab says:

    well Harry- if we knew the catalyst- so would everyone else-

    it is never as you expect

  60. karen says:

    A catalyst? like the blindfold slipping off and the number of unemployed being counted in the light? or the realization the real estate prices, commercial and residential, have nowhere to go but down? or that losses will have to be accounted for eventually?

  61. leftback says:

    “Can anyone truly identify a near term catalyst for a bigger correction than 4%??”

    Sure. Dollar rally – a short squeeze, to be precise. Do you have any idea how many hedge funds are long carry now?
    Think of the other markets, Harry, that’s why it is called The Big Picture, this blog ‘ere, mate.

    VT – interesting you mention ’87, there are some crash conditions present here: high valuations and few shorts. Wasn’t around then, do you know if there were carry trades/leverage in play back in 1987?

  62. cvienne says:

    @HW

    Can you TRULY think of a major external event back in March that put a floor in the S&P at 666?

    Point?

    Invisible forces my friend… The BOOGEYMAN!

  63. HarryWanger says:

    ahab: That’s my point. I can give you several catalysts to move the markets higher. Hell, we’ve had several in the form of economic numbers over the past few weeks. But what I’m saying is I can’t see anything to move it the other way. Earnings and economic numbers for Q3 would have to be pretty bad and we already know they’re not going to be. That alone carries this rally through the end of Q4.

  64. cvienne says:

    @HW

    & Harry – BTW, many here have ‘discounted’ the possibility of making a return back to 1056-1060 before the close today…

    So don’t get your panties all bunched up if it happens…

  65. emmanuel117 says:

    @rustum: BDI isn’t an important signal for the American economy. The Asian export economies (South Korea, Taiwan, etc.) should react more strongly, I think.

  66. HarryWanger says:

    cvienne: “Can you TRULY think of a major external event back in March that put a floor in the S&P at 666?”

    Yes, I can think of one really big one – the government. Rigged or not the Fed throwing money everywhere, mark to market, the “stress tests”, Obama’s declaration to buy stocks. All these completely slanted the market in favor of the long side trade. It’s not surprising at all that it has run so quickly.

  67. call me ahab says:

    harry-

    i try to give you the benefit of the doubt- but your certitude sends me over the edge-

    i understand catalyst to mean the spark that sends it one way or the other- can we agree on that?

    so if that is what we mean by catalyst- then we cannot know in advance – can we?

  68. cvienne says:

    @ahab

    now I KNOW Wanger is f411…

  69. cvienne says:

    …government…OBAMA… that’s f411 baby…

  70. Mannwich says:

    @cvienne: One of f411′s students? Although f411 has been strangely silent recently. Must be busy in the nanotech lab.

  71. Thor says:

    Ben and Karen – I figured out where you guys were spending most of your day, I just wanted to say I miss you both ;-)

  72. rustum Says: September 24th, 2009 at 2:36 pm
    I am able to trade QID in my 401k by accepting leverage/inverse purchase agreement. Sorry for asking lot of questions. So far, i have tried investing with few Indian ADR’s in 401k.

    rustum,

    worry not about asking Q:’s Knowledge is found when sought..

    though, remember, do your own Homework, afterall, it’s your cache..

  73. cacerolo says:

    Leftback,

    Last week, I posted about how manipulated were metal markets. So, I do not believe prices had any fundamental base.

    But I also believe markets have been following a script since march and I do not think that in the celebration day, the market can fall apart. Banks are happy with their new lifestyle, they talk about free markets, but they are getting use to this new socialism ( for them) with a lot of gifts and no liability. So, I am pretty sure they are going to send some messages in order to keep thing in the best way for them. So, if some government had incredible new ideas for the G20 about how to keep the banks under control, maybe they would have to reconsider some of those proposals. ” The markets are still fragil, it’s no time to introduce new regulations, we have to wait until economies recover”. Then we all know, that recovery is not coming, or they would hva a new hot regulation.

  74. HarryWanger says:

    ahab: Ok, I get your point. But I can give you several “sparks” that will send the indices higher. I’m curious if anyone has any realistic guesses on the “sparks” that could turn it the other way. I can’t see one unless it’s something like a terrorist attack or a major external event.

  75. cacerolo says:

    Leftback,

    I have tried to answer several times but my post are erased.

  76. call me ahab says:

    but harry- it is easy to go back in time and say what the catalyst was- anyone can do that

    you know- like when Marie Antoinette said- “let them eat cake” when she learned the peasants were complaining they had no bread-

    but before she said it- who could say that would be the catalyst to send the peasants over the edge?

    *disclaimer*- for dramatic effect only- so you history buffs can settle down right now

  77. HCF says:

    @ahab:
    >so if that is what we mean by catalyst- then we cannot know in advance – can we?

    Might we say a black swan? I believe our friend Harry is supremely confident that we can see the road ahead for miles and miles. I would argue, as Nassim Taleb does, that too much confidence in predictions leads to disaster.

    What if…
    Foreign governments can’t/won’t buy U.S. treasuries, terrorist attacks, unexpected fall in home sales, dollar weakens further or strengthens suddenly, universal health care passes in the form Democrats want, etc.

    All those (and other things) could put a dent in the recent rally.

    With that said, positive black swans could also occur and push up the markets more than we expect.

    HCF

  78. cvienne says:

    @ahab

    “qu’ils mangent de la brioche.”

  79. cvienne says:

    @Thor

    Thanks… please keep it silent…

  80. Mannwich says:

    @HarryWanger: Any indication the Fed is even taking a toenail out of the markets and this thing falls apart, IMO. Yesterday was an indication of that. They can’t get out, nor can they increase interest rates any time soon. I’m with leftback. This is Japan all over again but on a grander scale.

  81. Thor says:

    I can see several – some likely, some not so likely. A massive fire burning thousands of homes here in Socal (just a matter of time). Another devastating hurricane, Israel bombing Iran causing a disruption in oil supplies, a large European bank suddenly imploding, one of the eastern European countries defaulting, swine flu on steroids, one of the shaky large corporations (an airline or a network maybe) going under . . .

    HW, I should be shocked by your saying “I can’t think of anything . . .” Just because you can’t think of something doesn’t mean it can’t or won’t happen.

  82. Mannwich says:

    We couldn’t “think of anything” that would send home prices down either…..EVER, right? How’d that work out?

  83. HCF says:

    @Thor:

    Heehehe… I think Harry would argue that your list is composed of all “external events.” I’m sure he’s looking for “catalysts, ex-external events.” Kind of like the inflation, ex-inflationary items measurement…
    =)
    HCF

  84. AmenRa says:

    @HW

    The truth.

  85. AmenRa says:

    @HCF

    Even Taleb has come out and said that what happened in the markets was not a “Black Swan”. This event was seen coming by some.

  86. Mannwich says:

    @AmenRa: By “some”? By MANY is more like it. Doesn’t matter though. Being right or competent in a country that values protecting the incompetent and criminals isn’t worth a damn.

  87. Vermont Trader says:

    i never play for a crash and i have found that the moment you start getting greedy on the short side and think the market is about crash is when you should cover…..

    remember, you need aggressive selling to push the market down and the moment the last person sells b/c they think the market is about to crash is when it goes up…

    i just mentioned that b/c the last hour is showdown time..

    this was a mo-mo rally based on “green shoots”

    we lost both in the last 24 hours…

  88. cvienne says:

    @AmenRA

    He can’t HANDLE the truth!

  89. HCF says:

    @AmenRa:

    Agreed that the housing collapse was NOT a black swan event… Surely anyone who read Robert Shiller’s 2nd edition of “Irrational Exuberance” could have seen it as a high probability event…

    As I recall, though, Taleb has often said that whether an event is a “black swan” or “white swan” depends on perspective. The butcher knows what will happen to the turkey in the days leading up to Thanksgiving. The turkey just happily eats away…

    Alas, information (as well as blindness to it) has asymmetries….

    HCF

  90. ben22 says:

    @Thor,

    I go where the knowledge is. That isn’t here in TBP comments as of late.

    And Wangtard, I had another comment, all that momentum you keep buzzing about. Momentum peaked back in July with lower prices on the S&P. Unless you can provide some data to contradict that right now you can keep that to yourself. Seems that still gives you a novel size worth of reasons to stay bullish anyway.

  91. cvienne says:

    @Thor

    Since Harry is f411…

    All he’s waiting on is for Obama to say… “Hmmm…stocks look a little rich here”…

  92. Thor says:

    Ben – Ouch, that was harsh.

  93. manhattanguy says:

    This market could very well find support at 50 day on the weekly. How about that A123 systems ipo huh?

  94. cvienne says:

    @ben

    “aah that PESKY divergence”

  95. emmanuel117 says:

    @manhattanguy:

    Indeed. Dot-com-era daytrader told me it was just like the old days.

  96. dss says:

    @Wanger:

    Monkey see, monkey do….

    It is so easy to post the same theory AFTER the host does. I guess every day “we do not see a better report”. The housing report was unexpectedly poor. The hurricane analogy looks even better today than yesterday.

    Yesterday the temperature was nice, the sun was shining, today after BR posts his “hedge” we are now looking for a pullback.

    Sheesh. No credibility.

  97. AmenRa says:

    You know what? As soon as the G20 is over watch the bottom fall out of the dollar. The dollar needed to show strength going into the meeting. This was to keep the reserve currency talk at bay. But as soon as the last plane lifts off…SELL MORTIMER SELL!!!!

  98. cvienne says:

    @HW

    You MUST think that “durables” tomorrow is going to come in stellar…

    I mean, no REAL car buyer would ever just buy on a clunker incentive (lest be labeled a WUSSIE)…

    FULL RETAIL is the only way to go, right?