Is Goldman Sachs Trustworthy?
Alt title: Econ Smackdown: Paul Tudor Jones vs Goldman Sachs
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Goldman may (or may not) have top notch analysts and an excellent research department. But given their history of saying and selling one thing and then doing another, can anyone trust what comes from them?
Should hedge funds be setting their Outlook to auto-delete anything from GS.com research department? How can you tell what is a real research report versus disinformation or some bizarre Psy-ops strategy?
All of this raises the more basic question: Can their clients trust what GS generates, when they don’t know if they are a) trading the opposite side of the report for their own accounts; or b) HFT front running ?
The question isn’t whether Goldman Sachs is Taibbi’s “great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money.”
It is much more simple than that — the more relevant question is “Can Goldman Sachs be trusted by their own clients ?”
Bloomberg excerpt:
“Paul Tudor Jones, the billionaire hedge-fund manager who outperformed peers last year, is wagering that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley got it wrong in declaring the start of an economic recovery.
Jones’s Tudor Investment Corp., Clarium Capital Management LLC and Horseman Capital Management Ltd. are taking a bearish stand as U.S. stock and bond prices rise, saying that record government spending may be forestalling another slowdown and market selloff. The firms oversee a combined $15 billion in so- called macro funds, which seek to profit from economic trends by trading stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities.”
I am curious if anyone has any related thoughts on the matter . . . ?
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Source:
Goldman Sachs Wrong on Economic Recovery, Macro Hedge Funds Say
Cristina Alesci
Sept. 1 (Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=auGWGWlnohNo
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September 1st, 2009 at 9:15 am
Agnotology!
;)
September 1st, 2009 at 9:26 am
I wouldn’t be surprised if both sides of this trade turn out bad. Uncle Sam’s checkbook is a lot bigger than Mr. Jones’. The government can support the markets in nominal terms, but both the long and short side could be losers in real terms if the dollar tanks. I’m sticking with about equal weightings of cash, metals, and commodity funds until things shake out.
September 1st, 2009 at 9:27 am
Does a bear s__t in the woods?
September 1st, 2009 at 9:27 am
I wrote an article on who I think will be right. Hint: its not Goldman
http://capitalobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/paul-tudor-jones-ii-vs-goldman-sachs.html
September 1st, 2009 at 9:28 am
Let’s put it this way, any fund manager who is lazy enough to simply go by what GS has to say with respect to a research call, or market direction DESERVES to be slimed.
I think, though, that going forward, this “game” is going to get trickier and trickier for GS to play.
In this past year (since the Lehman collapse, the AIG conduit, the taxpayer funded PPT) there have simply been too many things that have bubbled to the surface which have made too many people wary about covert operations… & I think there will be more things revealed as time goes by… At any given moment, this little “partnership” they seem to enjoy with the USG may just end up as a power struggle…
September – October should be interesting months…
You get this sense that they’d [GS] like to offload this crap they’ve had to buy since March… In the past, it’s always worked flawlessly… But like the REAL retail world out there, what if you held a sale, and nobody showed up?
September 1st, 2009 at 9:34 am
Barry,
I don’t know if they are trustworthy…but as to the side of the see-saw, I would be, based on what I see here in East Tennessee, on the Paul Jones side of the equation. I missed the downturn here, and as you know, have been in short term cd’s for the bullish uptick we’ve had since March…I’ve slept like a baby. But the point is, I don’t have a dog in this fight, so my observations that business conditions are actually worsening here in East Tennessee are, I think, unbiased. I have quite a few friends that are in business, and I can tell you none of them are happy campers…
I have a vague feeling of unease when I see very large corporations basically in partnership with the government. And I don’t like it when corporations like Bloomberg have to sue to get any true accounting of what the government is spending and how much we as taxpayers will be liable for in the future. Nor, for that matter, do I like what I see in Afghanistan…having served in the Vietnam era..
By the way, my little Redbook is still weak again this morning….
B in T.
September 1st, 2009 at 9:50 am
BinT:
War in Afghanistan is never a good idea. We recut our teeth in Iraq, but Iraq is nothing like Afghanistan (or Vietnam, for that matter). Terrain/environment makes all the difference. Additionally, I wouldn’t doubt if Putin feeds us a little of our own medicine. Pay-backs are a bitch.
September 1st, 2009 at 9:50 am
To echo Bruce in TN, business conditions are actually worsening here in the NYC area as well.
September 1st, 2009 at 9:55 am
Didn’t GS say oil was going to $200 before it dropped?
September 1st, 2009 at 9:56 am
Are some questions rhetorical?
…
Goldman Sachs != trustworthy
September 1st, 2009 at 9:57 am
They’re either dirty or they don’t know. Either way, you’d have to be crazy to buy into analyst reports coming out of GS and the like.
Does 2% so much as get us even? I wouldn’t trumpet 2%…even if I believed it. But, I also wouldn’t underestimate GS’ power to influence the fulfillment of its prophecies. A new scam will emerge. This economy hummed along for 25 years on bad fundamentals and bears have a way of winding up on the wrong side of a trade even when they are ultimately proven correct.
September 1st, 2009 at 10:01 am
I just have three words that answers this: Abby Joseph Cohen. Please, do you think anyone on the GS trading side takes her or her team’s alleged “research” seriously? If anything, they use her as we do – as very good contrarian signal.
September 1st, 2009 at 10:02 am
I would not bet against Paul Tudor Jones. The analysts making the calls are just that: analysts. The real traders on GS’s prop desks are likely trading much differently than whatever their analysts are spewing.
September 1st, 2009 at 10:07 am
Of course they have no credibility anymore. I don’ t think you have to be a tinfoil-hat type to think that Goldman, as an institution, is in the *business* of gaming everything it can for its own profit. I think “bizarre Psy-ops strategy” is the safe way to bet on every single public utterance by anyone in any position of authority at GS.
September 1st, 2009 at 10:08 am
Q: How do you know when a sell-side analyst is lying?
A: Whenever his mouth is moving.
September 1st, 2009 at 10:11 am
This is from Mish, who I like, but seems like he feels he’s in a war all the time to read his posts…but, if you missed the Gallup poll he commented upon recently…this makes for very interesting thinking regarding whether Paul Jones or The Squid is correct:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/122546/Boomers-Spending-Generations-Down-Sharply.aspx?CSTS=alert
Boomers’ Spending, Like Other Generations’, Down Sharply
PRINCETON, NJ — Baby boomers’ self-reported average daily spending of $64 in 2009 is down sharply from an average of $98 in 2008. But baby boomers — the largest generational group of Americans — are not alone in pulling back on their consumption, as all generations show significant declines from last year. Generation X has reported the greatest spending on average in both years, and is averaging $71 per day so far in 2009, down from $110 in 2008.
….The charts are worth a look….this was published August 27th.
September 1st, 2009 at 10:12 am
Here at Dread we dont fade Paul Tudor Jones…
and we also think GS is a bunch of douche bag MBA’s with too much OPM and algo’s to throw around.
September 1st, 2009 at 10:13 am
Okay, if whether Goldman Sachs should be trusted by its clients is a final exam question, and my choices are a) Goldman Sachs should be trusted just because no matter what happens, it makes money, and making money justifies all sorts of nefarious behaviors; or b) Goldman Sachs should not be trusted because it talks out of both sides of its mouth, just like the politicians it has bought and paid for in Washington–then the answer is so easy the test wouldn’t be worth taking.
Now to the second question on the exam–Will Afghanistan be the undoing of the American empire? a) No, American exceptionalism means the lessons of history, particularly military history, do not apply to America; or b) Yes, Afghanistan is known as the graveyard of empires for good reason. Again, this is so easy it’s like child’s play.
Both of my answers are “b”. Where’s professor Franklin411? Do I get an “A” on the final?
September 1st, 2009 at 10:14 am
Plus… Paul Tudor Jones is a Tennesseean… and we dont fu*k with our own.
September 1st, 2009 at 10:14 am
Larry Flynt weighs in on how Trustworthy….
Common Sense 2009
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/larry-flynt/common-sense-2009_b_264706.html
The American government — which we once called our government — has been taken over by Wall Street, the mega-corporations and the super-rich. They are the ones who decide our fate. It is this group of powerful elites, the people President Franklin D. Roosevelt called “economic royalists,” who choose our elected officials — indeed, our very form of government. Both Democrats and Republicans dance to the tune of their corporate masters. In America, corporations do not control the government. In America, corporations are the government.
This was never more obvious than with the Wall Street bailout, whereby the very corporations that caused the collapse of our economy were rewarded with taxpayer dollars. So arrogant, so smug were they that, without a moment’s hesitation, they took our money — yours and mine — to pay their executives multimillion-dollar bonuses, something they continue doing to this very day. They have no shame.
September 1st, 2009 at 10:14 am
Not only that, Bruce, but the boomers (who are the real vampire squid of the US in some ways) are going to be retrenching from now on into their twilight years – as their self-absorbed orgy of consumption winds down and the rest of us look forward to paying for their largesse for the rest of our lives.
LB is not ruling out a run by the bulls at SPX 1050. The ADP may be a mellow number. We are almost flat and not anxious to encounter a steamroller headed north in the middle of this week.
September 1st, 2009 at 10:21 am
OT warning:
I-Man…I guess you saw where a large rock slide closed part of the Smokies for the last several weeks…including your favorite area from the west entrance?
September 1st, 2009 at 10:22 am
@ LB:
Kinda sweet to have one of the macro all stars of the universe endorsing your trades now aint it?
The overtones from PTJ’s funds: long dollar, long long bond, short equities, short commodities.
September 1st, 2009 at 10:25 am
Gotta love that ISM number :)
September 1st, 2009 at 10:25 am
@ BnT:
No… I hadnt… been on vacation. But man… that’s a pretty big slide! The mtns must be pissed… I know a back way that might get around that tho… look for Wears Valley Road on a map.
September 1st, 2009 at 10:33 am
http://briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/napm.htm
Big Picture
This is a highly overrated index. It is merely a survey of purchasing managers. It is a diffusion index, which means that it reflects the number of people saying conditions are better compared to the number saying conditions are worse. It does not weight for size of the firm, or for the degree of better/worse. It can therefore underestimate conditions if there is a great deal of strength in a few firms. The data have thus not been either a good forecasting tool or a good read on current conditions during this business cycle. It must be recognized that the index is not hard data of any kind, but simply a survey that provides broad indications of trends.
….Franklin, this is from Briefing.com…again, this is a survey….
…as far as hard data is concerned today…construction spending last month revised down, and down again .2% this month…
September 1st, 2009 at 10:40 am
Market failing to rally on good news (ISM and Pending Homes), and presumably the ADP will be inoccuous. Another of those times when it seems wiser to trade the reaction to the news, rather than trade the number itself.
@I-Man: LB is a long-time fan of the Tennessean, and has in fact witnessed his Xmas entertainment on occasion. Every December, PTJ puts on a musical light show for his Greenrich neighbors and kids travel for miles to see it.
LB’s Macro list for the Fall: Long: USD/AUD, USD/CAD, JPY/EUR. Short: $wtic, OIH, XLF, FXI, GLD, SLV.
September 1st, 2009 at 10:43 am
Goldman doesn’t care two poops, the facts are two years ago they sold subprime too clients and bet against them, that is factually who they are, a group not too be trusted if one has any sense. Now of course GS is like the mob, u r either in or out, you’se takes yours picks and takes yours chances. Short memories allow good sales pitches too work everytime. One would also think, overall they probably do a decent job for clients, most likely better than most, so they should be fine and dandy as always.
September 1st, 2009 at 10:51 am
@franklin411
Day in and day out, over many months now, the thought process that has matriculated on this BLOG (and on many other respected blogs covering the financial community) is one whereby everything either seems “cooked”, “papered over”, or downright FALSE…
The very theme of this thread is related to the role GS may be playing in this (in partnership with the government)…
People are getting weary… I can “sense” their weariness in many ways… I’ve noticed that the number of replies to posts has gone down over the past 2-3 months… I DON’T THINK, the “hits” on the site have gone down… But perhaps POSTS have… Why? Because there are only so many ways to say that the USG, the Fed, and the iBanks are all just gladhandling the situation…
In the initial stages, you express outrage, you participate… Then you step back and let others do the same (trying to see if your impressions are, in fact, correct, or how far out on the fringe you happen to be)…
I’d say that the verdict is pretty much IN by this point… It is a “gamed” system (and the “gaming” goes all the way to the top halls of power)… Perhaps it will NEVER fully be uncovered…
So fine… It is what it is… But in the context of all that I just expressed… to hear a comment like, well looky there…
“Gotta love that ISM number”…
Is MORE than laughable… First of all, as if it MEANS something in the broader context of things… or in light that the better reading was most likely due to “one off” scenarios like CASH FOR CLUNKERS, that have no way of generating any long term prosperity for this economy, or ANY OTHER economy that could ever possibly be…
September 1st, 2009 at 10:55 am
“Market failing to rally on good news (ISM and Pending Homes), and presumably the ADP will be inoccuous. Another of those times when it seems wiser to trade the reaction to the news, rather than trade the number itself.”
The usual September blues my friend. Market will take a deep breadth within the next few weeks.
Taking more debt to get out of existing debt is not a way out of this mess. Bernanke will find out this hard truth very soon. We are living in borrowed time.
September 1st, 2009 at 10:55 am
It doesn’t matter when our royals are wrong. They still declare “victory” and move onto the next scam. The Tyranny of the Incompetent lives on.
September 1st, 2009 at 11:00 am
One more pop tomorrow for the ADP number? After that, this summer of Happy Daze is likely at an end.
September 1st, 2009 at 11:05 am
@f411
…and FWIW, in the context of your unashamed political bias, every time I read a comment like
“Gotta love that ISM number”
I can’t help but thinking of it as some type of clarion call to put a positive spin on things and make it seem like your guy has complete control of things…
But to me it doesn’t sound much different from another poster, in a timewarp anti-matter universe (let’s say, 2005) saying…
“Wow, look at those great forecasts from the NAR, it seems like housing prices have reached a permanently high plateau, THANK GOD #43, came through with all those tax cuts, and Greenspan kept interest rates down. Nowwhere to go but UP from here”.
What a joke!
September 1st, 2009 at 11:11 am
@f411: Market really loves those ISM numbers.
To quote Jimmy Johnson: “How ’bout them ISM numbers!!!!”
September 1st, 2009 at 11:11 am
An interesting post from Mish on the housing meltdown and deflation in Spain and other European countries.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/09/deflation-is-bitch.html
For “Spain and Ireland” read “CA, NV and FL”, for “London” read “New York”, and for “France and Germany” read “the rest of the U.S.A.” The € ties these countries together in the Euro zone, in the same way that we are tied to CA. Spain and Ireland’s debt overhang is going to drag the other economies of Europe down for years. The UK is a special case because they can weasel out of the depression by devaluing sterling, another good macro bet for 2010. Countries with unique currencies are the likeliest candidates for stagflation, as there is less fiscal discipline.
September 1st, 2009 at 11:12 am
Question for my fellow macro dogs:
Does being bullish on the USD make you inherently bearish on Gold?
Is this an assumption we should question?
Of all my macro charts at the moment… gold is the one that I cant pin. The chart makes me really wanna get long… my fundamental intuition makes me really wanna doubt that. Whenever these instances arise it makes me stop and think and reevaluate.
Does a rising dollar foretell a falling gold price? Has this always been the case historically?
To tie it in to this thread again… I’ve read on here before rumors of GS and the USG being large sellers of gold heading into the end of the year… and then again rumors of the UST marking up their gold reserves to market to bolster the balance sheet.
Has GS put out any macro gold research that any one has read or can link?
September 1st, 2009 at 11:12 am
As the wise president George W. Bush once said:
“There’s an old saying in Tennessee — I know it’s in Texas, probably in Tennessee — that says, fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can’t get fooled again.”
I think we can all agree with this sage advice.
September 1st, 2009 at 11:13 am
this could be good:
FINRA To Raise Margin Requirement On Leveraged ETFsFont size: A | A | A
11:07 AM ET 9/1/09 | Dow Jones
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–Leveraged exchange-traded funds face yet another restriction as the regulator that oversees the retail brokerage industry said it plans increased margin requirements for the funds and uncovered options tied to the funds starting Dec. 1.
In general, margin requirements for ETFs and options will be increased “by a factor commensurate with their leverage,” according to the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. The current margin requirement is typically 25% of the market value of a long ETF and 30% for a short ETF.
New margin requirements will not exceed 100% of the market value, according to Finra. Finra has already taken steps to warn brokers and investors leveraged ETFs can be tricky for inexperienced traders to handle.
September 1st, 2009 at 11:13 am
@Mannwich
The market is not the economy.
September 1st, 2009 at 11:15 am
also, over at stocktiming, a good look at the falling nyse new highs number:
http://www.stocktiming.com/Tuesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
September 1st, 2009 at 11:15 am
@f411: Exactly. The economy sucks right now and isn’t getting better. Your boy has done nothing fundamentally different than the last crew.
September 1st, 2009 at 11:16 am
“I love the smell of napalm in the morning.”
September 1st, 2009 at 11:17 am
“The market is not the economy”
Hope you are joking. Is this why Fed is buying futures to pump up the market so they can artificially provide this “feel good” factor about the Economy?
Dow is down over 100 points as we speak.
September 1st, 2009 at 11:20 am
The 2-year is at 0.94%, haven’t seen that in a while, that’s a form of fear gauge right there, now wait until the 3-month T-bill starts to attract buyers and that would be the time to get very short. The mood is shifting.
Can’t see a drop below spx 1000 today, almost sure the bulls will stage a rally before that. The dollar is looking better today than it has in some considerable time.
September 1st, 2009 at 11:20 am
@manhattan: f411 only likes to tout the markets as proof that O’s policies are working when they’re rising. When they are falling on supposed good data, it’s to be dismissed blithely with statements like it “is not the economy”.
September 1st, 2009 at 11:20 am
Even the mightiest market of them all, sugar, is down today….after peaking into a perfect technical level, 24.85.
September 1st, 2009 at 11:23 am
It’s Sept. 1. Might this turn out to be the most predicted market drop in history? Makes me a little nervous that we could be seeing a massive headfake here in the next two-three months.
September 1st, 2009 at 11:24 am
@Mannwich
You almost never see me posting here about how the so-called “market” has judged things. The “market” is merely a reflection of the fears, hopes, greed, and intelligence or lack thereof of its participants. The economic data is the only accurate gauge of our present condition, and the numbers for the last 5 months have been nothing but up up up. That fact is undeniable.
September 1st, 2009 at 11:25 am
I am still not sure about near term strength in dollar. If it is certain that Dollar will go up near term?
September 1st, 2009 at 11:27 am
“market is down on good news.”
____________
Reminds me of an old joke:
Doc: I’ve got some good news and some bad news, which would you like to hear first?
Patient: I’d like the good news first.
Doc: The good news is that we amputated the wrong leg. The bad news is that the other one is getting better.
September 1st, 2009 at 11:28 am
@I-Man (11.12)
“Does being bullish on the USD make you inherently bearish on Gold?”
IMO – Not necessarily. Why? Because gold can also be considered the “Armageddon Trade”… So in a collapsing environment (especially where the $ is becoming the new proxy for the carry trade based on ZIRP), there actually could be periods of dollar rally (as commodities are sold to pay off the dollar denominated debt)…
And think about it… As far as the commodity space is concerned, it’s going to be the “hot money” that gets sold off first (oil, copper, etc.)… There is nothing that’s telling me that there’s any HOT MONEY in Gold at the moment. My own “physical” gold positions I haven’t sold any of, but the last time I made a gold purchase was in 2004. And Gold has yet to even break through the March 2008 highs.
So what that tells me is that even as the dollar may rally here, gold won’t sell off significantly (Instead, proabably oil & copper [which are the new 'anti-dollar' proxies]), will…
JMHO
September 1st, 2009 at 11:29 am
@f411: So is unemployment and foreclosures. It’s up, up, and away from here……….
September 1st, 2009 at 11:29 am
There will clearly be a battle into the 1000 level.
999 is the 23.6% retrace of the July-Aug leg.
1002 is the 61.8% retrace of the the most recent advance
1004 would be an a=c down
So 999-1004 is going to be critical level for the market in the short term. If 999 gets decisively snapped, this market should head for 950…poste-haste.
September 1st, 2009 at 11:29 am
AIG and FNM falling like a stone… such silliness. Brian the Broker’s phone must be ringing off the hook.
“The numbers for the last 5 months have been nothing but up up up.”
This is true – in Soros’ “inverted square root sign”, now they are going to be flat flat flat, or down down down.
“If it is certain that Dollar will go up near term?”
Nothing is certain except Death and Taxes, but repayment of debt will drive the dollar upwards, and so would the unwinding of certain leveraged carry trades that have been used to drive certain markets up over the summer.
September 1st, 2009 at 11:31 am
Wow, the rush to the exits begins as scheduled right on Sept 1. Brian the broker getting deluged with calls right now.
September 1st, 2009 at 11:33 am
Andy, 1004 seems like a level that may be defended today. But we have close to zero long exposure and are modestly short (oil/energy stocks/financials), so if it fails, we say bring it on!!
September 1st, 2009 at 11:33 am
I wonder of Harry is buying this dip?
September 1st, 2009 at 11:33 am
10:43 – 10:51 .. OUCH
on the Obama WH not doing anything .. bull crap .. this is BIG you dork
now .. what would I do …… pull outta Afganistan ASAP … halt trading like 9/11/01 (because the market is not the real economy – but it yanks its chain seriously) ….. institute that .0001 cent tax on every dollar traded and thats just the start
so aren’t you’s glad I got no chance of being POTUS
September 1st, 2009 at 11:34 am
@franklin411
What if those numbers were goosed up? what if the numbers were just an aberration?
I still believe we will see a double dip recession early next year.
September 1st, 2009 at 11:34 am
I dare you to buy the dip. I dare you.
September 1st, 2009 at 11:35 am
@f411
“The “market” is merely a reflection of the fears, hopes, greed, and intelligence or lack thereof of its participants.”
LMFAO
Well, as this thread suggests (a thought that is MIRRORED by just about every deep thinking blog in the financial community)… The MARKET is controlled by the USG, the Fed, & GS at the moment…
Suggesting they are…
1. Fearful
2. Hopeful
3. Greedy
4. Intelligent (or lack thereof)
September 1st, 2009 at 11:36 am
@hope: Not a chance. Just watching my DTO, FXP and DUG run a bit.
September 1st, 2009 at 11:36 am
23.45 on UUP fast approaching…
September 1st, 2009 at 11:36 am
watching my spy puts run a bit too.
September 1st, 2009 at 11:36 am
the spx uptrend from july has been broken.. pull out your straight edges.. and the spy 20 day ema has been broken as well. if it doesn’t regain it’s footage today or tomorrow. my bet is down.. oops, not true. my bet is already down. thin ice always did frighten me.
September 1st, 2009 at 11:38 am
Man, Mr. Market didn’t even wait until mid-Sept to pull the plug, not even the 2nd. Amazing.
September 1st, 2009 at 11:39 am
Is GS trustworthy? Is the S&P fall this morning the real thing?
The answer to both is NO. Look at copper and oil. Copper is up and oil is only down a couple of dimes. The rise in the 10 year is only daily noise. Copper will be in free fall when the market collapse is real. The 10 year will be a safe haven.
conclusion: Another sucker market for shorts. Will they be fooled successfully for the 53rd time in a row? My guess is ‘yes’. The real fall in the stock markets to something realistic is not here yet and not pending at this moment. There’s no real selling pressure at this time.
September 1st, 2009 at 11:39 am
@I-man,
imo before you can answer why a rising dollar might be bearish for gold you need to ask why would the dollar go up in the first place. The reason I’m long the dollar is b/c I’m firmly in the deflation camp. I see the answer to the reason the dollar goes up being credit deflation, simply stated, the remaining dollars that stay after the credit (which is most of our “money”) goes away become more valuable. We saw this last year and when we did, Gold, like everything else, went down. In fact it went way down. The problem as I see it is that it did not go down as much as everything else in that space, simply because it never went up as much as everything else in that space, emotions cause this. I’m sure you can think of examples of what I mean. I’m also not at all in the camp that thinks the dollar is going to crash soon or go away soon and therefore the best time to own gold doesn’t seem to be now, nor do I think you are getting a great price for gold now (unless you are short term trading which in that case, aren’t there better things to trade short term?) I’m bearish on Gold currently but don’t have any position either way and prefer to stay short silver here though that needs to be watched really close.
My top two reasons to worry about not being in gold:
Seems like some smart money is buying (JP in Q2, others, etc.)
Dollar does in fact collapse
Why not:
This seems like one of the most crowded trades ever, non stop commercials, cash4gold, gold parties, vending machines in Europe selling it, etc. When TLC starts a show about trading gold (like home flipping) then that should be the nail in the coffin. Maybe there already is a show like this.
Gold bugs basically had all their dreams come true at the end of last year and gold couldn’t even make new highs.
The threat of inflation in the near term seems unrealistic to me
Certainly not a complete list at all but just what I could think of off the top.
September 1st, 2009 at 11:39 am
I’ve been waiting for the bull trap to spring.
September 1st, 2009 at 11:40 am
manhattanguy, that was surely the top for the backward looking ISM and the recoveryless recovery, the second dip has begun.. summer fun is over and the reality of the jobless recovery awaits in September..
September 1st, 2009 at 11:42 am
spy cliff diving lately has always found a quick bottom. not this time.
September 1st, 2009 at 11:44 am
@Manhattan
What if an asteroid hits earth tomorrow?
That’s the beauty of “what if” scenarios–the person making the assertion doesn’t have to offer any kind of proof to support his claim.
In the complete and utter absence of any proof that the numbers are “faked,” there is no reason to disbelieve them. The Bears have claimed that the numbers are fake for the last 9 months even as the numbers have been A. consistently strong, and B. consistently improving. They have become the boy the cried wolf in this regard.
September 1st, 2009 at 11:44 am
It will be interesting to see if the “dip-buying” crowd do indeed come in to “snap up bargain stocks”. A lower high tomorrow or Thursday would be confirmation that the top is in, but remember, we have been here before.
September 1st, 2009 at 11:45 am
I said:
The problem as I see it is that it did not go down as much as everything else in that space, simply because it never went up as much as everything else in that space, emotions cause this.
To expand as I didn’t type it correctly, since it didn’t go down as much as other commodities people hold on to this belief that it’s the only thing that didn’t get killed, but it just looks more like it didn’t go down as much as everything else b/c it never went up as much either, if that makes sense.
September 1st, 2009 at 11:46 am
@karen: It’s time for you to trademark “recoveryless-recovery”.
September 1st, 2009 at 11:47 am
ben22:
Mish has some pretty good posts on gold being strong in a deflationary environment – you might want to check them out.
That said, gold has been in a channel since the $100+ mark. Big moves in the US every day (up and down), typically followed by steady buying. Only time will tell.
September 1st, 2009 at 11:48 am
@Manny
If Harry was true to form… He’d have been buying that 2% (which arrived yesterday at 1,016)…
We will most likely only hear from Harry again at 1,044 – 1,054…
But by then, we’ll require his own hindsight analysis to know if he, in fact, bought the 2% dip at 1,016… Or had the clever trading acumen, to wait for 935…
Of course it won’t matter because I’m sure he’s 100% in cash right now (having sold exactly in 5 minutes at 1,038)…
September 1st, 2009 at 11:48 am
sliced through many levels of support very fast (s1, s2, s3, 5day ma, etc).
September 1st, 2009 at 11:49 am
MOM!!! They are picking on Franky jr again…..
September 1st, 2009 at 11:50 am
USO on support level, crude should start to find some buyers here. LB is thinking that this is a good time to leave the building with a bag of cash. Looking at TBT but not pulling the trigger.
September 1st, 2009 at 11:50 am
BTW –
Those FAZ calls that I bought last week at $6…I just pulled off at $7.20…
only 20%, but I trust NOTHING these days…
I had to suffer awhile as they were at $4.50 as early as this morning.
September 1st, 2009 at 11:50 am
frankili:
even tho’ the boy who cried wolf was wrong in every instance but the last and got et, the wolves did show up, and the town wasn’t ready.
September 1st, 2009 at 11:54 am
Any chance the Giant Squid has seen the ADP numbers for tomorrow? That someone found out this morning?
…just trying my tin hat on for size….
B in T
September 1st, 2009 at 11:56 am
OK, it’s looking a little more aggressive, but I still don’t believe it. When/if copper falls from about $2.80 at the rate of +/- 10 cents a day, after three days I’ll believe it. Until then, it’s a short sucker market. They fall for it every time. Especially if a magic chart supports them. Then, the one time they will be right someday, they will appear to forget the 53 times previously they were fooled by HFT kiddies.
September 1st, 2009 at 12:00 pm
dh says-
“conclusion: Another sucker market for shorts. Will they be fooled successfully for the 53rd time in a row? ”
could be, could be-
’tis happened before- but there will be that time- when the force of gravity will prevail- when reality will set in- when our future is apparent-
and the markets will reflect the ugly truth
September 1st, 2009 at 12:00 pm
sold spy puts. Will buy more on a rally.
September 1st, 2009 at 12:02 pm
“Seven weeks of COLLEGE down the drain!”
Actually, my “pre-amble” here is to look at this as a quick correction (perhaps back to 933 – a 61.8%) of the summer rally…
What a nice H&S that would look like for the final push to the top into the year end window dressing…
September 1st, 2009 at 12:03 pm
Let’s see. Are any of the TBTF banks trustworthy? No. I don’t have time to read all the comments but I am sure that TBP posters have provided plenty of examples of why not.
September 1st, 2009 at 12:07 pm
hobo, agree on copper, yet, imho, india breaks first then copper will follow, a nickel a day will be fine
September 1st, 2009 at 12:14 pm
The € is on support here, but that chart is not looking pretty. Remember EUR:JPY has been the critical carry trade.
Waiting for what seems like the inevitable rally.
September 1st, 2009 at 12:15 pm
IMHO, we’ll have to wait until tonight to see how much the PPT rescues the drop. The day’s not over yet.
September 1st, 2009 at 12:16 pm
Agree Indian markets need to fill the Election day gap as someone pointed out. But their economy is doing much better than us. They don’t depend so much on exports as the rest of the Tiger economies do.
September 1st, 2009 at 12:18 pm
Sold my DTO a short time ago. Watching now.
September 1st, 2009 at 12:18 pm
@ben22
ZSL finally got jolted out of bed a little there (yet to be confirmed – but I’ll take it)…
It’s been bugging me, because even when the dollar has been trying to do little moves, silver just lays there like a zombie…I’m owning the ZSL February calls since last week… You’re in there, right?
Good to see both moving to the same degree for once.
September 1st, 2009 at 12:24 pm
torrie-amos Says:
September 1st, 2009 at 12:07 pm
hobo, agree on copper, yet, imho, india breaks first then copper will follow, a nickel a day will be fine
reply:
———–
In 11 – 2007, copper and the yen broke downwards big time. That was my sell signal. Today, the yen isn’t relevant but copper is overvalued again. When copper breaks, that will be the start of the correction. Until then, it’s just a sucker market for shorts. Right now, the market is down a whopping 3% from the recent top. Heaven forfend the horrors of this drop. ZH noted that there’s only $25b left in the Fed’s fuel injection system and it will be used up in two weeks at the current rate. That might be when it breaks.
September 1st, 2009 at 12:25 pm
this is all very short term and intraday stuff, but I can see a completed “five” from this mornings highs…it targets around 997, so I’m thinking that we get some kind of rally….i break down below 995 would start looking pretty bad.
September 1st, 2009 at 12:27 pm
@cvienne: I’m on the ZSL bandwagon too. Not that thrilled so far.
September 1st, 2009 at 12:33 pm
Market is absorbing buying here quite well.
Let see if the PPT is real. Looks like they can’t even get a pop with this low volume mid-day.
September 1st, 2009 at 12:34 pm
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Clunkers-boosts-Ford-sales-apf-4058866656.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=
Clunkers boosts Ford sales; Chrysler sales fall
Chrysler sales fall! With the cash for clunkers!
Trying to sell buggy whips when everyone else has moved to bullet trains….
September 1st, 2009 at 12:35 pm
@Andy T
997 would be right on Harry’s 2nd BUY point (4% from the 1039 high), so you’re sure to see a FLOOD of buying there!
September 1st, 2009 at 12:38 pm
@Andy T
& OT, but except for the 1st play from scrimmage, and the cheap TD to Chester Taylor at the end of the half, The TEXANS didn’t look all that bad…
I hope Schaubby isn’t hurt… He seemed to like going to OD, but I think that with Jared Allen in your face all night, the patterns to AJ have no time to develop….
September 1st, 2009 at 12:38 pm
@Marcus:
re: “Mish has some pretty good posts on gold being strong in a deflationary environment – you might want to check them out.”
Yes, I’ve been trying to read a lot more Mish lately. I’d also note though, it seems the reason his commodities fund lost 15% last year was b/c of his bets on gold. I wonder if what appears to be his bias towards gold is clouding the analysis. I’ll read more. For me, I can’t figure gold out so I just would prefer to watch until there is a more clear read on price trend.
@CV/Manny,
Re: ZSL, yes I’m in via call options, loser so far. If it goes up to or above 15.22 I’m going to have to bail and take a loss on some of the stuff I’ve bought. For now though, I’m still short and not just for a trade, same with my China short and dollar longs. Silver keeps running into serious resistance as it appeared to do yesterday. We’ll have to wait and see and adjust accordingly.
@AT,
That’s almost exactly what EWI was looking for re your 12:25.
September 1st, 2009 at 12:39 pm
Could the dollar have a sustained rally without the carry trade reversing?
If so how would that look?
September 1st, 2009 at 12:39 pm
@Bruce in Tn
Wait until they try to sell cinquecentos…WORSE than buggy whips!
September 1st, 2009 at 12:48 pm
At Chrysler, sales fell to 93,222 units from 110,235. They rose 5 percent from July of 2009.
The clunkers program lowered supplies of Chrysler’s fuel-efficient vehicles like the Dodge Caliber, the Chrysler Sebring and the Jeep Patriot. Going into August, five of Chrysler’s most efficient vehicles were already at low inventory levels.
Chrysler is also boosting production by 50,000 vehicles through the end of the year to make up for the shortfalls, according to the person familiar with the matter.
….this is from the above, and let me see if you agree with my thinking…the CFC program is over…Chrysler didn’t have enough small cars to sell that qualified…so they are increasing production, but it seems to me the focus next year will be on hybrid technology from Toyota, Nissan, Honda, GM, and F. Will Chrysler increase production of cars that will be at a technical disadvantage when selling against some form of hybrid technology, perhaps even plug-ins?
…just wondering if some companies ever manage to see the future….
September 1st, 2009 at 12:49 pm
Mannwich
Why do you bother? Really. Unless you get some entertainment value out of it, there’s no point in arguing with a partisan. They’ll always find a way to back their guy and won’t be swayed despite any evidence short of outright murder in the light of day in front of cameras and crowds (IOW it won’t happen).
OTOH, if you enjoy it, have at it! :)
September 1st, 2009 at 12:53 pm
@Bruce
Doc? You take care of the needy all day long in the salt mines, then go hiking and canoeing in the mtns over the weekend (avalanches & mudslides notwithstanding), and you STILL have time to figure the Chrysler operational strategy?
I want to PARTY with you dude! :-)
September 1st, 2009 at 12:54 pm
Chrysler’s marketing motto = “Back to the Future”.
September 1st, 2009 at 12:56 pm
Bruce
The public’s on a buyers strike re: autos. As well they should be. They’ve bought into the hype, marketing and fashion of buying autos at rates that are ridiculous, wasteful, and downright foolish. More of our wealth has been squandered in the manufacture and purchase of autos than anything else over the years (with housing a close second lately). Talk about misallocation of capital.
And the auto companies dug their own graves by continuing to encourage it with unsustainable financing, drank their own Kool Aid and built their industry to ridiculous levels that were doomed to fail. And now of course Uncle Sam is endeavoring to enable it further, with our descendants’ wealth. I’m so disgusted these days I can’t possibly convey the depths of my disgust. I think you’re a kindred spirit in that regard.
September 1st, 2009 at 12:58 pm
I got through early in surgery this am…you won’t see me post this afternoon….
By the way Cvienne…I have been reading Chekhov the last two weeks…and from your posts, if you are not a fan, I think you’d enjoy his short stories. I have been very impressed with the clarity of his thoughts, and they remind me of current situations and problems here, not just the mid-1800′s in Russia….
September 1st, 2009 at 1:00 pm
@Onlooker:
I am indeed a kindred spirit of that type of thinking…
September 1st, 2009 at 1:02 pm
@OT
“And now of course Uncle Sam is endeavoring to enable it further, with our descendants’ wealth.”
Look at the bright side, it locked up the electoral colleges for a few states!
Uncle Remus will now tell you a bedside story!
September 1st, 2009 at 1:03 pm
Faber’s new letter out today is solid as usual. He’s a gold bull re our discussion above based on me skimming the letter. He’s watching the same pattern in gold that everyone else is, it’s coiling up and will either go sharply up or down so the sideways movement will not last much longer.
He puts together some very good arguments in the letter coupled with his usual amount of charts and comedy.
September 1st, 2009 at 1:16 pm
@ben22
re: GOLD
I had never heard of the 3lb type of technical analysis that Amen Ra brought up a few weeks ago (but I’m fascinated by it). I don’t have enough experience to put it to full use, but it’s actually pretty simple.
In any case, a 3lb on a weekly closing basis is more indicative of a trend shift than on a daily basis, and a 3lb on a MONTHLY basis, might really sound alarms…
With regards to GOLD… The last time it broke it’s 3lb on a monthly chart, it went from $900 down to $660 (in a flash)…As we speak, about $92.45 on a “close” for the month of September (on GLD) would signify yet another 3lb violation…
Interestingly, the February ’09 highs for gold never took out the 2008 highs, and the highest MONTHLY close, didn’t even manage to take out the highest 3LB print from February ’08…
FWIW
September 1st, 2009 at 1:16 pm
Dollar seems to have wedge-triangle pattern also.
September 1st, 2009 at 1:18 pm
@ben22
Meanwhile, a WEEKLY hold & close (this week) above $23.32 on the UUP would signify a reversal there on the weekly 3lb technical pattern (which hasn’t happened since March)…
September 1st, 2009 at 1:19 pm
gold:
“He’s watching the same pattern in gold that everyone else is, it’s coiling up and will either go sharply up or down so the sideways movement will not last much longer.”
Most chartists are probably assuming that the big triangle holds bullish implications, but with the speculative community already heavily long it’s going to take some sort of serious “event” to bust it higher.
Also, the longer this proposed triangle proceeds, it actually diminishes the likelihood of it being a triangle. Triangles are “supposed” to complete 20-40% before the apex…by my estimates we’re about 20% of the way to the apex, so it should be concluding pretty darn soon, one way or another….
September 1st, 2009 at 1:21 pm
This market today has a slightly spooky feel, reminds LB of last September, before the Hunt for Red October™.
“Could the dollar have a sustained rally without the carry trade reversing?”
Not possible, given current trading patterns. Dollar bulls are, by definition, commodity and equity bears.
“it’s coiling up and will either go sharply up or down”
Down Two, Then Left.
September 1st, 2009 at 1:22 pm
@ben22
…and actually as I just typed the (1:18) comment…the UUP just printed $23.49 (which is ABOVE the former WEEKLY 3LB number which correlated with the “3″ wave low of the down move…
Note: the “4″ wave that was initiated there, never fully violated the 3LB pattern, and ultimately a “5″ wave began…
September 1st, 2009 at 1:26 pm
Whoa, jump on silver.
September 1st, 2009 at 1:27 pm
leftback Says:
September 1st, 2009 at 1:21 pm
This market today has a slightly spooky feel
reply:
———–
Volume is higher. The implication is that normal people are back in and taking profits. This also means the HFT kiddies are shooting blanks today. It’s still too soon to call a trend, but this is what a normal market looks like. Since nobody has seen one for several months, your puzzlement is forgiven.
September 1st, 2009 at 1:28 pm
Holy shit… anyone just see that crazy spike across UUP, USO, SLV, GLD, TLT… all in unison with the SPX break???
What the fuck was that? Big currency trade?
September 1st, 2009 at 1:31 pm
Is that all just a reflection of crazy shit going on in the Euro/Yen?
September 1st, 2009 at 1:31 pm
yeah I-man we are all sitting in the office right now looking at that. WTF?
September 1st, 2009 at 1:33 pm
@CV,
That is interesting on that 3lb take. I saw him/her mention that before but have also never really used it.
@AT,
All the letters I read have the same exact chart up of gold and all but one conclude as you say that the move will be higher, not sharply lower. That seems to firmly be the consensus estimate on the pattern. We should know soon enough.
September 1st, 2009 at 1:34 pm
I might add that ZSL just took a bath but I’m seeing silver below $15. I’m not a pro on the currency stuff so any insight from currency traders would be helpful.
September 1st, 2009 at 1:37 pm
@ben22
In simple terms, if the UUP closed the week above $23.32, that ought to be bullish…
September 1st, 2009 at 1:39 pm
One things for certain… someone decided that today was a good day to pick up some SLV.
September 1st, 2009 at 1:42 pm
@I-Man
Or, someone was playing SHORT SILVER as a proxy for STRONG DOLLAR, and finally got sick of the trade…
So, they COVERED the short SLV and just bought the UUP (as both the SLV & UUP moved in tandem)…
September 1st, 2009 at 1:44 pm
I thought that too at first… but trying to invoke karen’s KISS principle…
September 1st, 2009 at 1:45 pm
Wow, nat gas continuing the slide; $2.86 now. That’s a knife that just keeps on falling. Many have taken some pretty nasty wounds trying to catch it, no doubt.
September 1st, 2009 at 1:47 pm
I’m with hobo. Today is just some chain jerking. Scare the faint of heart in the longs, inspire the shorts, and set up for another run higher. Keep eyes on the dollar. Commodities won’t be along for the ride on this next leg higher. Watch inventory reports of oil today and tomorrow – oil is destined to align with natural gas as the dollar keeps rising.
September 1st, 2009 at 1:47 pm
In my personal and humble opinion after years of buying mutual funds and reading several researchs a day…
NEVER TRUST THE SELL SIDE.
September 1st, 2009 at 1:47 pm
I-man,
There was silver demand yesterday but once it got right around here it fell again. This is a little scary for the bear position because it looks like there are buyers for silver as it dips. Still using $15.22 but that was a big move a few minutes ago.
I have not sold yet but this position is shaky right now.
Maybe MEH can provide some color, he’s a silver guy. Maybe he’s doing more deep research though….
September 1st, 2009 at 1:49 pm
Once this plays out, look out below!
September 1st, 2009 at 1:51 pm
@CV
Re: $$
The dollar looks like it’s about to rally for months or print a 72 or something on the dollar index. I doubt this sideways action we keep seeing in a few things will last all the way through September.
But hey, as Mish pointed out yesterday, 70 days or so and counting for the dollars ultimate collapse…
September 1st, 2009 at 1:57 pm
CNBC reports GM down 20.2% y/o/y sales.
Commentator says: But wait, you have to remember this time last year GM had a huge sales event ongoing so you have to put this in perspective.
mcHAPPY says: But wait, what the F&%* was CFC, dumbass?
Why doesn’t MSM pick up on the fact the only beneficiary for CFC was Japan and Korea? GM and Ford are increasing production – for what?
September 1st, 2009 at 1:59 pm
Started a small amount of TBT, but would stress that this is purely hedging against long bond positions after strong gains in Treasuries. We are fully expecting to see some kind of rally in risk assets develop today or tomorrow.
September 1st, 2009 at 2:00 pm
mcHappy,
We should officially term that the Burnett Curve.
She always feels the need to assign a silver lining to every real or potentially negative data point. I doubt it started with her but she’s the one I always think of when it comes to complete nonsense silver linings like what you describe above.
My favorite part of CFC was the roughly $12 billion in new household debt it brought about. Awesome!
September 1st, 2009 at 2:03 pm
Prisoner’s Dilemma:
1. GS defects from Clients/Clients trust GS
2. GS defects from Clients/Clients defect from GS
3. GS is honest/Clients trust GS
4. GS is honest/Clients defect from GS
BUT we add a wrinkle:
1. GS defects from Clients and is RIGHT about market/Clients trust GS (win/lose)
2. GS defects from Clients and is WRONG about market/Clients trust GS (lose/win)
3. GS defects from Clients and is WRONG about market/Clients defect from GS (lose/lose)
4. GS defects from Clients and is RIGHT about market/Clients defect from GS (win/win)
5. GS is honest and is RIGHT about market/Clients trust GS (win/win)
6. GS is honest and is WRONG about market/Clients trust GS (lose/lose)
7. GS is honest and is RIGHT about market/Clients defect from GS (win/lose)
8. GS is honest and is WRONG about market/Clients defect from GS (lose/win)
September 1st, 2009 at 2:04 pm
agreed LB, the rest of this week could be a reversal of the down days.
Yes, another shot for the buy the dips group seems probable at this point. Perhaps Mr. Wanger will be telling us how easy it was by the weekend.
September 1st, 2009 at 2:18 pm
A conspiracy view might hold that GS is never wrong about the market because it has insider knowledge/manipulates. :)
That being the case, only options #1, #4, #5, or #7 obtain.
From the client standpoint, that means
1. trust and lose small – gain small (cynical GS needs to maintain appearances, after all)
2. don’t trust and win moderate-big
3. trust and win moderate – big
4. don’t trust and lose moderate-big. (riskiest position)
The distrustful position is the riskiest so client opts for trust.
September 1st, 2009 at 2:18 pm
Harry Wanger will probably be at Brian the Broker’s barbecue loading up on nutritious AIG and FNM stock.
One last barbecue, one last chance to pitch some stocks to Johnny Retail before Red October™, part deux.
September 1st, 2009 at 2:18 pm
@ben22
Sorry to keep beating the horse on this 3LB thing, but it’s my new fascination…
I just did a 3lb check on a WEEKLY basis on the SPX… On the most recent “potent” run up (from the July lows), VOILA, the very onset of the move was set off in conjunction with a 3LB of the WEEKLY kind (that was set off at the 920 level)…the market never looked back…
Right now, the third line in the break is the 1004 level (corresponding to the Friday close we had a few weeks ago)…
We are BELOW that as we speak, but the SPX would have to close on Friday to be a violation of that…
Just something I’m watching…
I took my SPX puts & FAZ puts off this morning, but as this plays out this week, I might jump back in…
Meanwhile, I stay long dollar, and, as I took most of TBT today off today (with only a little still riding there)…
September 1st, 2009 at 2:21 pm
Yeah that AmenRa 3LB shit is some good stuff… I saw him post 3LB for about 6 months before I actually punched it into google…
Fascinating for trend followers indeed. Between that and EW… I could spend a full year studying alone.
September 1st, 2009 at 2:24 pm
Caught up…
If you are a 17 year old pizza delivery boy who is day trading in AIG…how do you take a 17% hit in one day??
…just wondering…
September 1st, 2009 at 2:24 pm
Something tells me that the market is going to gravitate back and forth around this 1004 level all week, close Friday on or near, and force both SHORTS & LONGS to sweat it out over the long holiday weekend…
Brian the broker is going to have to go dig up his July 4th BBQ sales pitch to keep the sheeple to shovel some more paychecks Blanky’s way…
September 1st, 2009 at 2:30 pm
something tells me the market is going to tank this week : ) oil and gold to sell off as well. short usd about to come off big time.. gold bugs will be screaming manipulation!! laughing.
September 1st, 2009 at 2:33 pm
“gold bugs will be screaming manipulation!!”
rotflmao!
September 1st, 2009 at 2:37 pm
yeah, this 3LB is going to get several hours of my time over the long weekend. Thanks AmenRa, and again, nice handle.
re: SPX
I think we all might do well and do the Karen KISS method and just draw out the trend lines like she did and watch them for breaks. The charts are really hard to read right now imo.
EWI had a really good chart of the third wave of the GD and simple TA would have made you a fortune during that third wave, well if you were brave enough to follow it that is. Simple breaks of the trend-line signaled the next reversal, it happened over and over again for more than a year.
@Bruce,
If it is the pizza boy, and lets say they bought yesterday, my guess is that 17% translated into a loss no greater than $170. Probably closer to $17 for most of them. Considering some data I’ve seen recently, depending on the generation of the pizza boy, that might be a day, or a few days worth of expenses, and I’m guessing given the lifestyle of a pizza boy it’s a few days worth.
I don’t think Joe Retail is doing that to those stocks.
September 1st, 2009 at 2:37 pm
@karen
If it does, it will definitely confirm the 3lb story (as today’s move showed it the door)…
September 1st, 2009 at 2:38 pm
Not sure this is the end. One last hurrah for the Zombies of Summer before next week’s denouement.
Agree with Karen – a forced unwind of short dollar positions would be tremendously amusing over the next weeks.
September 1st, 2009 at 2:39 pm
karen
have I mentioned that your posts are G$$$$ lately!!!
September 1st, 2009 at 2:40 pm
@ben22
It may be the occasional “fringe benefits” that pizza boys (& pool boys) are after. Not so much the money…
September 1st, 2009 at 2:46 pm
“It may be the occasional “fringe benefits” that pizza boys (& pool boys) are after. Not so much the money…”
Being bitten by the family Rottweiler, perhaps?
September 1st, 2009 at 2:50 pm
how could i have been so mistaken? it isn’t a recoveryless recovery, it’s the inventory-driven recovery : )
“Economists are calling for an inventory-driven recovery. With goods on their shelves now at low levels, businesses will have to order more in order to restock. This could turn into a virtuous cycle leading to more and more production.”
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The most severe economic recession since the Great Depression is history, economists said Tuesday, after key early data for economic conditions in August came in much stronger than expected.
Early on Tuesday, there was a report of a sharp jump in the Institute for Supply Management’s factory index. The index rose above the key psychological 50% threshold indicating expansion for the first time since Jan. 2008. See full story.
“The rise in the ISM manufacturing overall activity index to a level firmly above 50 and the surge in the new orders index to the highest level since December 2004 are the clearest signs yet that the recession is over,” said John Ryding, economist at RDQ Economics in New York.
short economists, anyone?
September 1st, 2009 at 2:52 pm
Manhattanguy is loving the action in Financial shorts and $DUG, keeping a tight stop loss. Tomorrow will tell us if market wants to claim back the losses rest of the week or continue with downside. Hoping for the latter. If it falls below 940 by mid Sept, my friend owes me a bottle of Veuve.
September 1st, 2009 at 2:53 pm
maybe we can’t short economists, but we can short GS and go long PTJ. (just bringing the thread 100% back on track.)
September 1st, 2009 at 2:56 pm
The inventory recovery is probably in the rear view mirror. Retailers who overstock will be sorely disappointed.
Flat, except for a little $DUG with a tight trailer. You’d have to think the Pump Team will be out to hold SPX 1000.
September 1st, 2009 at 2:57 pm
@karen: Re-stock so they store shelves look full. Great strategy because those products will sit there for quite a while.
September 1st, 2009 at 2:57 pm
Not sure I get shorting SLV or GLD here.
I understand it’s a deflationary play….but where else are folks going to turn if/when the paper markets go to hell??
When is the rice & potable water ETF gonna start up??
Speaking of ETF….anyone else see this??
Margin requirements going up for the leveraged ETFs.
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10593192/1/leveraged-etf-margin-rules-to-change.html?puc=_cnnmoney&cm_ven=CNNMONEY&cm_cat=Free&cm_pla=Feed&cm_ite=Feed
September 1st, 2009 at 3:02 pm
The inventory story is yet another fallacy that misses the point. So what if they are revamping inventory? BO started his speech on swine flu harping on this point. mcHAPPY asks: Who is going to buy the inventory?
September 1st, 2009 at 3:05 pm
@karen
“With goods on their shelves now at low levels, businesses will have to order more in order to restock.”
Why do you think nat gas prices are on their way down to $2.04?
It’s because all the nat gas powered forklifts in the warehouses don’t need to be busy hauling all those crates out to delivery trucks…
Actually, most forklifts are battery powered (but I couldn’t help the metaphor)…
September 1st, 2009 at 3:05 pm
@Christopher,
The leveraged ETF’s are going to come under major attack in the coming months. A class action lawsuit was issued against SRS about a week or so ago. Shocked, some investors lost a lot of money in what they thought was a “safe hedge”
I guess what those attorneys and inwestors don’t know is that if they are hedging CRE longs, more losses are on the way.
this isn’t exactly news but read it this morning, might be worth a read for some:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=ai724AYZvzsU
September 1st, 2009 at 3:06 pm
I should say the ETF company not SRS, but SRS was specifically mentioned in the complaint I read.
September 1st, 2009 at 3:10 pm
tz says-
“A conspiracy view might hold that GS is never wrong about the market because it has insider knowledge/manipulates”
that’s been my thought all along- i think the Fed/Treasury were so desperate that they could care less if people could connect the dots
September 1st, 2009 at 3:11 pm
“Not sure I get shorting SLV or GLD here.”
Depends on who is long gold as a $ hedge and with what leverage, but I agree it may have limited play as a trade.
Two directions from here: oil rallies on inventories and ADP tomorrow and we make a higher low, or even a last insane run up to SPX 1050. Or, oil crumbles down to $65 tomorrow and a dollar rally creams the entire commodity sector, as the carry trade unwind begins to take down the fragile underpinnings of this Mickey Mouse market.
September 1st, 2009 at 3:14 pm
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=112428852
Heavy Equipment Sales Economic Barometer
“BARR: Back at the auction, the scrapers roll in, and it’s like celebrities just walked in the door. Everyone stops what they’re doing and stares. After all, a new scraper can cost a million dollars.
Unidentified Man #2: Oh, say, (unintelligible). Here we go (unintelligible), here we go, 350,000. Three hundred and fifty-five. Here we’re gonna go, ladies and gentlemen, 250. Two-fifty…
BARR: Prices for all used heavy equipment are down about 30 percent from where they were a year ago, and scraper prices have slipped even more. Just a year ago, a late-model scraper would have set you back about $500,000.
Unidentified Man #2: Sold, 250,000.
BARR: The first one sells for 250,000 dollars. From there, prices plummet. One bidder waits patiently until the very last machine drives across the ramp.
Unidentified Man #2: Thirty-two hundred and 32.5.
BARR: And then he nabs it for just $132,000. And to him, that says a lot about what’s happening in his industry.
Mr. SHANE AULICK (Owner, Heavy Equipment Leasing Company): You can tell there’s no dirt work out there at this time. ”
..I listened to this on NPR this morning…worked in college during the summer with scapers…1 million/per and these are HUGE machines (larger than LB’s head!)…sold for 132k!
really hard to believe….
September 1st, 2009 at 3:14 pm
“i think the Fed/Treasury were so desperate that they could care less if people could connect the dots”
Correct. Tiny Tim sent Blanky and Jamie some money and told them to “get this mo-fo market going North so I can dump my POS house in Westchester and get out from under this crushing mortgage”. The man can dream, right?
September 1st, 2009 at 3:15 pm
[...] So asks Barry Ritholtz, financial world insider and respected financial commentator, author, and blogger. When folks like him start asking such questions… The question isn’t whether Goldman Sachs is Taibbi’s “great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money.” [...]
September 1st, 2009 at 3:16 pm
it appears lb has started a trend – 3rd person reference-
ahab wonders if this will catch on to all at TBP
September 1st, 2009 at 3:17 pm
I-Man has never once heard of the third person… what do you mean ahab?
September 1st, 2009 at 3:19 pm
LMAO iman
September 1st, 2009 at 3:22 pm
@I-Man
it was that 3lb chatter… got him confused for a sec…
September 1st, 2009 at 3:22 pm
A scraper looks like a gigantic wood plane. on wheels about maybe 10 feet high…the bottom opens up and the massive machine scrapes up the dirt to make highway grade and fill…also to shave hills down to grade on the highway plans…if people are buying these at 132k, then construction is a long way from recovering…
September 1st, 2009 at 3:26 pm
Expanding short book on Financials and Oil. Will cover tomorrow a.m.
One of the great things about this correction is that some of the overvalued technology stocks will come down to acceptable price level. I will be a buyer at that point.
BTw, did anyone wake up Blankefien and Tiny Tim?
September 1st, 2009 at 3:27 pm
I’m feeling a little poetic today…
With VIX over 27… its short’s manna from heaven-
With VIX over 30… its time to get dirty!!!
September 1st, 2009 at 3:28 pm
@manhattanguy
The “Lilliputians” are in charge today…
September 1st, 2009 at 3:29 pm
SSSShhhhhhelll em lloyd.
September 1st, 2009 at 3:29 pm
Mannwich may have dumped his DTO a tad soon.
September 1st, 2009 at 3:33 pm
As usual, I booked out of my FAZ calls early (with only a 20% profit instead of 33%)…
But profits are still profits (and taxes paid on those profits will be forthcoming to the US Gov)…
Will someone inform Timmy & BO that they can generate revenue when stocks GO DOWN by people booking positions…(and perhaps NEED this to happen)?
September 1st, 2009 at 3:35 pm
It’s not like CEO’s are standing around and saying…
“Oh look, our stock price is 20 points above the 200 day moving average, let’s go on a hiring spree!”
September 1st, 2009 at 3:36 pm
I-Man, laughing, laughing…
Christopher, think how much $$$ GS can make driving gold under $900 and crude back to 58? Personally, i wouldn’t short.. would love to buy at shocking levels tho..
PLS NOTE: every comment should reference GS in some way.
September 1st, 2009 at 3:39 pm
@karen
any comment that references the USG, by proxy, references GS
September 1st, 2009 at 3:39 pm
GS is surely untrustworthy…
Did I miss an OT Crusade last week or something? Everyone feels uptight.
September 1st, 2009 at 3:43 pm
Too soon to cover shorts. Will wait until tomorrow morning to see what direction Mr. market is going. By tomorrow morning Blankefein will be awake.
September 1st, 2009 at 3:43 pm
I-Man
LOL
PS…For today
Tudor Jones 1
GS 0
September 1st, 2009 at 3:44 pm
Excellent point Karen….silly of me to overlook the 800lb gorilla in the corner….
September 1st, 2009 at 3:46 pm
@LB
The SPX just hit your 997 number…
Is that your GS floor?
September 1st, 2009 at 3:47 pm
LB has recently talked to his boy Giles Straightarrow at 85 Broad, and can now reveal Blankfein’s top secret trading instructions to the prop desk for the summer, before the big boys left for the Hamptons:
1. F*ck the shorts.
2. F*ck ‘em again.
3. F*ck ‘em some more.
This was achieved primarily through use of a super-computer known to GS insiders as the VULVA (Virtually Unlimited Liquidity and Volatility Augmentation). For the upcoming Fall season, however, this algo has now been displaced by PENIS (Proprietary Equity Negative Investment Strategy).
September 1st, 2009 at 3:50 pm
PPT, report to the Dow. No -200 days are permitted.
September 1st, 2009 at 3:50 pm
PPT (AKA – Lispy Lloyd), where for art thou?
September 1st, 2009 at 3:52 pm
@ emmanuel:
Just wait for the 2K and 5K blocks of SPY to start crossing through the LTV… kind of their MO.
September 1st, 2009 at 3:54 pm
@I-man:
Just saw 50K fly by, lol.
September 1st, 2009 at 4:03 pm
i heard a sage here the other day saying that buying the dips was like putting cash in your pocket- like shooting fish in a barrel- a no-brainer-that even a wee child could make money-
harry i think his name was- bet he was buying some longs today
September 1st, 2009 at 4:04 pm
On a casual glance, looks like the biggest volume day in SPY since April…
September 1st, 2009 at 4:06 pm
Well, well, that was interesting, wasn’t it? We have had a splendid week already at Schadenfreude Asset Mgmt.
September 1st, 2009 at 4:08 pm
“GE exec sees another 12-18 tough months ahead”
i wonder if they are tethered to the Fed- on the short list the Fed is trying its best to keep secret
September 1st, 2009 at 4:13 pm
I hope I don’t wake up in the morning and see FAS calls doubled…
@I-Man:
May 7, looks like. Also, I just saw a 1000000 SPY block at 102.
September 1st, 2009 at 4:13 pm
Just caught the “Alt Title”:
“Alt title: Econ Smackdown: Paul Tudor Jones vs Goldman Sachs”
Given that PTJ is quite the boxer, it would be a thing of beauty to see him don the trunks and gloves and take on “Glass Lloyd” Blankfein for just one round…
Oh man… I might even sacrifice a full year of trading to see that one round.
September 1st, 2009 at 4:16 pm
Lol, 2 more million blocks. Somebody’s feeling frisky.
September 1st, 2009 at 4:16 pm
@ahab
“GE exec sees another 12-18 tough months ahead”
GS —- I wonder if they mean “dog” months (as in, dog years) — GS
September 1st, 2009 at 4:27 pm
American International Group Inc. shares tumbled Tuesday for the second straight day as investors sold shares of the embattled insurer nearly as quickly as they bought them last month.
Shares of AIG plummeted $7.12, or 15.7 percent, to $38.21 in afternoon trading amid a broader market sell-off, and a day after losing 10 percent.
Investors had pushed the New York-based insurer share price higher at a dizzying pace in August — it more than tripled in price during the month, even including Monday’s 10 percent sell-off.
this alone should clue everyone and anyone in- that’s it’s a scary and shaky market we are in- one that is being held up by mere vapor- that triple in price for August- that dizzying pace- and the question is why- where is the value- and the answer is- there is no value- so again why?
pisses me off that these companies are trading at all
September 1st, 2009 at 4:30 pm
please assume quote marks from the first to third paragraph- i was quoting from Yahoo Finance
September 1st, 2009 at 4:32 pm
@ahab: Doesn’t mean they can’t run the trash back up again tomorrow….. a modest squeeze is likely.
September 1st, 2009 at 4:53 pm
lb-
i guess the trash play is what has me thinking that this is all a precursor to a crash- much akin to the dot com era w/ IPO’s with limited real value- skyrocketing- only to plummet back to earth-
pets.com? etoys.com?
people have very short memories and must pathologically like getting played
September 1st, 2009 at 4:59 pm
Heh.
I remember sitting in my office the day the VA Linux IPO hit….
That day I went home and started making plans to move out of NYC….did so some six months later….and haven’t looked back since.
September 1st, 2009 at 4:59 pm
@ahab
I was singing the “crash” song earlier this year, but something tells me we just get a “run of the mill” correction here… 10% or so down to the 930-940 area…
I still think a CRASH is coming, but I’ve bumped my forecast on that to 2010 (until further notice)…
Nevertheless, a good 10% correction here is a welcome sight to get the juices flowing…
September 1st, 2009 at 5:01 pm
“Is Goldman Sachs Trustworthy?”
Some would say if you have to ask…
I would say you can always trust Goldman Sachs to act just like Goldman Sachs!
September 1st, 2009 at 5:14 pm
@ahab
& ahab… If it ends up to be true that this is just a 10 or so % correction off the countertrend rally, there should be a lesson learned…
At the next of the next big wave up (which, perhaps, pushes the S&P even higher), it will pay to own the biggest CRAP out there…
So fill your Christmas stockings with AIG…
September 1st, 2009 at 5:22 pm
cvienne-
no– i’m w/ you- i was in no way implying that today was the “start” of anything- but- becasue of the rampant specualtion- the interest in stock w/ zero value- the run up in worthless stock- it has given me the impression that an actual crash may be likely- not just a prolonged contraction-
observations
September 1st, 2009 at 5:27 pm
Christopher-
why the move? were you just sick of IPO’s and the whole Wall Street vibe-
to tell you the truth i am sick of the whole USA vibe at the moment
September 1st, 2009 at 5:32 pm
@ahab
observations?
Sure – FWIW… September, it’s a convenient excuse to sell a little in a frothy market… Plus, you’re going to have the over hang on a one month “stay” to see how the appeals court rules on Bloombergs case to air out the Fed’s books…
The market will discount that in and move to the safety trade for 4-5 weeks (we’re probably in week 2 now)… When the WORST is discounted there (in terms of financials being down), the verdict will come in… The news will either be an appeal to the SCOTUS, or, they’ll go ahead and make them open the books, but it will be some kind of “stress test” charade, where only portions get opened and we don’t really learn a whole hell of a lot…
People who short financials will have to fly, market runs back up… They manage to take it through year end… 1999 all over again… Perhaps Jan – March 2010 is where the music finally stops… By that time, Harry’s waitress will be giving HIM stock picks…
I’ll probably be TOTALLY wrong on everything… But the NFL season has started and I have more important things on my mind! ;-)
September 1st, 2009 at 5:36 pm
Doesn’t seem like the thread is getting much traffic so:
I read earlier some of the best advice I’ve ever seen on this blog within the Listening to Market Themes and then in the comments someone posted this Gem:
“…And right here let me say one thing: After spending many
years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of
dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that
made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that?
My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the
market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and
early bears in bear markets. I’ve known many men who were right
at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks
when prices were at the very level, which should show the
greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine –
that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be
right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest
things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has
firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally
true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to
trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance.
The reason is that a man may see straight and clearly and
yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time
about doing as he figured it must do. That is why so many men in
Wall Street, who are not at all in the sucker class, not even in
the third grade, nevertheless lose money. The market does not
beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains
they cannot sit tight. Old Turkey was dead right in doing and
saying what he did. He had not only the courage of his
convictions but the intelligent patience to sit tight.”
Steve Barry comes to mind when I read that.
September 1st, 2009 at 5:46 pm
Ben 22:
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you…
Is the above quoted from Jesse Livermore?
September 1st, 2009 at 5:46 pm
@ben22
That IS a refreshing read…
But you better not tell it to Tim Geithner or Blanky…
If everyone sat on their hands until (the right time), there would be no transaction fees, or tax revenues collected…
As sheep boy would say… BAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHDDDDDDD! 4 business…
September 1st, 2009 at 5:49 pm
IOW Ben…
Since financial engineering is all that our economy is about, and since everything else has ground to a halt.
Better keep the turnstiles whirling around in circles…
September 1st, 2009 at 5:51 pm
http://www.nytimes.com/glogin?URI=http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/01/business/global/01minerals.html&OQ=_rQ3D2Q26adxnnlQ3D1Q26refQ3DbusinessQ26adxnnlxQ3D1251796139-gqFszN92Ia3sQ2FluQ2FSaikQ2BA&OP=34db71acQ2FQ2AsSwQ2AQ3ArQ5C2Q3Brr5TQ2AT44Q2BQ2A4Q2BQ2A4WQ2Awp23jS22Q2AJQ3ErwHQ3EQ2A4WG3jSQ3BHQ3E2Z75GQ3E
China Tightens Grip on Rare Minerals
“The government’s plan to tighten limits on the production and export of so-called rare earth elements would force more manufacturers to make their wares in China.”
…time to stock up on Ritholtzium…..
September 1st, 2009 at 5:54 pm
well cvienne-
if i had all the advance knowledge as GS- and the USG giving me money to trade- i would be trading like a crazy mofo-
b22-
sitting tight at the moment myself- more due to exasperation and distrust of the market than any kind of wisdom however
September 1st, 2009 at 6:00 pm
http://money.cnn.com/2009/09/01/news/companies/auto_sales/index.htm?postversion=2009090117
“Cash for Clunkers left dealers with limited inventory of new vehicles once the program ended and also with fewer buyers interested in buying cars now that they are no longer eligible for $4,500 in rebates.
Caldwell said that the pace of sales went from a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 15 million vehicles while the program was in effect in August to only about 8 million currently.
“Cash for Clunkers sent the sales rate on a wild roller coaster ride,” she said.”
…..15 down to 8…..very, very interesting….
September 1st, 2009 at 6:49 pm
@ Tennesse Bruce
“If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you…”
Is from Rudyard Kiplin’s “IF” poem, very good poem
The quote Ben22 posted is from a post today’s TBP also a good read.
@ ahab 5:27
But if you get sick enuff of the USA vibe and deside to leave, what will Uncle Stupid do?
September 1st, 2009 at 7:16 pm
I know…franklin…I think what HE wrote is Jesse Livermore…
September 1st, 2009 at 7:36 pm
@Bruce,
Yes I think it is, the person that posted that quote names the book it is in as well. Don’t recognize the handle of the poster but it was a good post.
September 1st, 2009 at 8:13 pm
The quote is from, “Reminiscences Of a Stock Operator” by Edwin Lefevre, p. 68
September 1st, 2009 at 8:44 pm
@Bruce
Rare Earth
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b8TGZQ8pyuM
September 1st, 2009 at 8:52 pm
@Bruce
““Cash for Clunkers sent the sales rate on a wild roller coaster ride,” she said.”
…..15 down to 8″…
Ironically, coming out of the gym today I overheard a conversation talking about just the same thing, how sales rocketed up then, nosedived…
Just think what’s going to happen to everything else if they EVER have to raise interest rates on anything again… There will be less than 1% of the population who will be able to afford a house over $500,000 (unless they can pay cash for it)…
Onto brighter topics… f411 was VERY impressed with the ISM numbers today… It PROVES that the President’s policies have placed the economy on a firm footing for prosperity…
After all, you can’t argue with the numbers…
…until you CAN, of course…
September 1st, 2009 at 8:56 pm
@f411
If you can find yourself a fighter pilot and a jet, I’ll go ahead and give you permission to land on my aircraft carrier…
September 1st, 2009 at 9:06 pm
ahab
The VA Linux IPO confirmed my suspicions that the dotcom bubble was exactly that. There were already signs….Anyone else remember the dotcom layoffs?? You found out you were axed when your passcard wouldn’t work to get in the door.
I had been lucky enough, blind luck actually, to be in NYC in the IT biz during the last five years of the century. I started up a small contracting company. At one point I was contracting out HS kids to do HTML at $125/hr….Insanity.
VA Linux big hype was that they were a hardware company specifically designed for Linux OS.
I mean really….how fucking stupid is that?? LOL
But there it was….closing at $239….up some 700% from the issue price….
That little voice in my head commenced to screaming. GET OUT NOW!!
I floated my resume and got a killer offer from a STL based brokerage firm to do database work for them.
So I bailed. Took my NYC money and bought some rental properties out here.
Hindsight being 20/20 I probably should have stayed and milked the cow for a few more years. But then I’d probably be under water on the RE…so it evens out in the end I figure.
September 1st, 2009 at 9:12 pm
PS
The STL brokerage got bought by Wachovia. They were offering parachutes and I was sick of IT so I bailed and went back to school. Now I do NucMed/PET scans for a living.
Life is a funny thing.
:)
September 1st, 2009 at 9:30 pm
@Christopher
Cool Story! Don’t seem to be many worries…
Except for how in the world you think Kyle Boller is going to run the Rams offense this year…
Good luck with that!
September 1st, 2009 at 9:31 pm
Actually I like Kyle Boller…
Heckuva nice guy… Just a hard luck NFL QB…
September 1st, 2009 at 9:39 pm
Hey Cvienne if my little bro will take me with him when he lands on your aircraft carrier, will you let me drive it?
September 1st, 2009 at 10:01 pm
@mangy420d
You can do that, AND handle the nuclear ordnance…
September 1st, 2009 at 10:09 pm
The Lambs are going to have another long year I think.
STL is ALL BASEBALL right now….and for good reason. They went 20-6 in August and show no signs of slowing down.
I’m hoping Cassel can survive the opening KC game against the Ravens. They might have a decent year if the O line can give him some time.
I enjoy college FB a lot more….went to every Mizzou home game last year….we’re gonna miss Chase Daniel and Jeremy Maclin. Who got Maclin in the TBP league draft?? He’s gonna be a great one if he can avoid the big injury.
September 1st, 2009 at 10:35 pm
@Christopher
Maclin is a great player (and a great guy)…
In the end, he wasn’t really picked up in ANY of the leagues I play in (and I play in about a half dozen money leagues)…
One has to understand the subtleties… Almost all of those Big -12 offenses are SPREAD offenses… So there’s a greater learning curve in making the jump to the NFL…
Even Crabtree, great athlete that he is, will most likely take a few years to adjust… Guys that come out of “Pro Style” offenses usually make the jump a little quicker…
Cassel is a good example…He was a 4 year backup at USC, but his familiarity with the Pro-Style offense that USC runs made him a good fit in the NFL…So when Brady went down, he stepped right in…
Problem with Cassel is that KC has the 2nd worst offensive line in the NFL (after the Bills – who are massive, but can’t block)… I’m afraid that Cassel is going to get his head beaten in this year… The Chiefs took Tyson Jackson from LSU in the first round, and then didn’t even have a pick until the third round (because they traded away their 2nd rounder to the Patriots for Cassel)…
They should have taken Andre Smith to protect Cassel (although I heard AS broke his foot yesterday in Bengals camp)…
Anyway… The Patriots O-Line last year was EXTRA ATTENTIVE… First of all because it was THEY who were responsible for the SuperBowl loss to the Giants (as the G-Men had a field day on Brady)… Second, because they allowed the pressure to put Brady out for the season in the 1st game last year…
Cassel, won’t have the same luxury with the Chiefs… Ravens are going to have a field day…
I don’t know if you wager on Sports, but I have no problems laying 9 points on opening day for that one…
I’m afraid both the Chiefs & Lambs are going to have tough years…
Mizzou should surely entertain… It’s going to be a fun conference… I’m still battling in my mind between Texas, Oklahoma, & Oklahoma State for the conference title…
Back to Maclin… The Eagles have so many different weapons it’s hard to say what’s going to happen…
Look, they’ve got McNabb, Westbrook, (now Vick), DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy, even Celek looks like he’s coming on… Maclin might emerge more as a Devin Hester “special teams” type…
JMO
September 1st, 2009 at 11:01 pm
@Christopher:
I winced when I saw KC’s first 7 games.
Ravens
Oakland
The NFC East (consecutively!)
San Diego
I’d light a candle for Cassel’s knee if I were you…
September 2nd, 2009 at 12:00 am
@cvienne
Took a look at weekly UUP and GLD. The reversal on UUP is 23.66 (chart: http://www.charthub.com/images/2009/09/01/Powershares_USD_Bull.png ). It started its down move on 12/19/08. The lower closes have been getting smaller so the downtrend looks like it’s weakening.
Weekly GLD needs a close above 96.20 to trend up. It’s currently has a range of 96.20 to 85.22 (chart: http://www.charthub.com/images/2009/09/01/GLD_Daily.png )
3LB (or TLB) removes volume from the analysis and uses price action to determine sentiment.