Comments on: Jim Grant: Ringing the Bell at the Top? http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/09/jim-grant-ringing-the-bell-at-the-top/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Tue, 14 Feb 2012 21:03:30 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.5 By: Monday links: bearish conversion Abnormal Returns http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/09/jim-grant-ringing-the-bell-at-the-top/comment-page-1/#comment-217573 Monday links: bearish conversion Abnormal Returns Mon, 21 Sep 2009 17:08:54 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=38638#comment-217573 [...] Grant is bullish.  Should we be worried?  (Big Picture, Nancy Miller, Money & Co., Fund My Mutual Fund, Zero [...] [...] Grant is bullish.  Should we be worried?  (Big Picture, Nancy Miller, Money & Co., Fund My Mutual Fund, Zero [...]

]]> By: The Curmudgeon http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/09/jim-grant-ringing-the-bell-at-the-top/comment-page-1/#comment-217565 The Curmudgeon Mon, 21 Sep 2009 16:48:36 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=38638#comment-217565 Good observations, Winston Munn. Gotta destroy some supply somehow, as you say, if we are to ever coax our secular God of growth out of the temple. How convenient a war would be in doing so. Good observations, Winston Munn. Gotta destroy some supply somehow, as you say, if we are to ever coax our secular God of growth out of the temple. How convenient a war would be in doing so.

]]> By: Seattle Chill http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/09/jim-grant-ringing-the-bell-at-the-top/comment-page-1/#comment-217512 Seattle Chill Mon, 21 Sep 2009 06:21:37 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=38638#comment-217512 VennData: "So much for “the bond market is bearish” meme… the bond market is in the hands of the world’s Central Banks and their quantitative easing, that is unless you think the CBs are great traders." Oh no, there's nothing at all bearish about the Fed blatantly manipulating interest rates in the open market. I mean, it's not as if they perceive the global financial climate as so precarious that such unprecedented intervention is critical to preventing total systemic collapse. Nope, they're just a bunch of dumb suckers, always on the wrong side of the trade! Why aren't they buying stocks, like all the smart people? VennData: “So much for “the bond market is bearish” meme… the bond market is in the hands of the world’s Central Banks and their quantitative easing, that is unless you think the CBs are great traders.”

Oh no, there’s nothing at all bearish about the Fed blatantly manipulating interest rates in the open market. I mean, it’s not as if they perceive the global financial climate as so precarious that such unprecedented intervention is critical to preventing total systemic collapse. Nope, they’re just a bunch of dumb suckers, always on the wrong side of the trade! Why aren’t they buying stocks, like all the smart people?

]]> By: Trainwreck http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/09/jim-grant-ringing-the-bell-at-the-top/comment-page-1/#comment-217508 Trainwreck Mon, 21 Sep 2009 03:25:28 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=38638#comment-217508 Is there a way to invest in bullshit, because I would love to short it by the truckload. Is there a way to invest in bullshit, because I would love to short it by the truckload.

]]> By: investorinpa http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/09/jim-grant-ringing-the-bell-at-the-top/comment-page-1/#comment-217482 investorinpa Sun, 20 Sep 2009 23:53:11 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=38638#comment-217482 I think I'm going to sum it up for everyone...sometimes bears and bulls give out an opinion just because they have to and want one that is different than the crowd of other opinions. Right now, there are about 2309434 predictions out there. You can't take anything from anyone's mouth as gospel. Personal story...today, I met with Peter Schiff this afternoon @ a private client meeting he had here in Philly. I am not a client, but am on the mailing list so figured, might as well go meet the guy. The room was PAAACKED. At least 350+ people on a goregous Sunday with an Eagles home game going on and a Phillies game on as well. To me, that means there MAY be a top in foreign stocks/gold/precious metals coming to us soon. He was saying his usual stuff, but the level to which people were all about Schiff was a bit over the top. I wish him well in his Senate race, but wonder how his message is going to work if the dollar all of a sudden finds strength. I think I’m going to sum it up for everyone…sometimes bears and bulls give out an opinion just because they have to and want one that is different than the crowd of other opinions. Right now, there are about 2309434 predictions out there. You can’t take anything from anyone’s mouth as gospel.

Personal story…today, I met with Peter Schiff this afternoon @ a private client meeting he had here in Philly. I am not a client, but am on the mailing list so figured, might as well go meet the guy. The room was PAAACKED. At least 350+ people on a goregous Sunday with an Eagles home game going on and a Phillies game on as well. To me, that means there MAY be a top in foreign stocks/gold/precious metals coming to us soon. He was saying his usual stuff, but the level to which people were all about Schiff was a bit over the top. I wish him well in his Senate race, but wonder how his message is going to work if the dollar all of a sudden finds strength.

]]> By: Blissex http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/09/jim-grant-ringing-the-bell-at-the-top/comment-page-1/#comment-217479 Blissex Sun, 20 Sep 2009 23:23:12 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=38638#comment-217479 «<i>Greenspan-encouraged collapse of interest rates accomplished nothing more than a borrowing of future demand.</i>» That is <b>physically impossible</b>. What has actually happened is that the USA (and the UK) have borrowed demand from someone else (e.g. China). «<i>The future from which that demand was borrowed is now upon us.</i>» That depends on whether those who have lent demand to the USA want it back yet. «<i>There is no pent up demand – we already spent it.</i>» There is a lot of pent up demand in the place where the past demand has been borrowed from. I find much better the comments beginning: «I think we should look at it from top down. 1. The developed world is over leveraged and consumers are tapped out. 2. The US is a net importer and many countries in the world are net exporters. 3. On a macro basis, the US needs to bring the different between imports and exports closer to 0. Problem with this: 1. Americans can’t overnight become exporters and the rest of the world can’t overnight become consumers. 2. Strong forces are in place to maintain the status quo. Why would the developed countries want to share resources with the other 5 billion on this planet. In the spirit of self preservation, they would want to keep it all for themselves before sharing.» «Greenspan-encouraged collapse of interest rates accomplished nothing more than a borrowing of future demand.»

That is physically impossible. What has actually happened is that the USA (and the UK) have borrowed demand from someone else (e.g. China).

«The future from which that demand was borrowed is now upon us.»

That depends on whether those who have lent demand to the USA want it back yet.

«There is no pent up demand – we already spent it.»

There is a lot of pent up demand in the place where the past demand has been borrowed from.

I find much better the comments beginning:

«I think we should look at it from top down.
1. The developed world is over leveraged and consumers are tapped out.
2. The US is a net importer and many countries in the world are net exporters.
3. On a macro basis, the US needs to bring the different between imports and exports closer to 0.
Problem with this:
1. Americans can’t overnight become exporters and the rest of the world can’t overnight become consumers.
2. Strong forces are in place to maintain the status quo. Why would the developed countries want to share resources with the other 5 billion on this planet. In the spirit of self preservation, they would want to keep it all for themselves before sharing.»

]]> By: willid3 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/09/jim-grant-ringing-the-bell-at-the-top/comment-page-1/#comment-217478 willid3 Sun, 20 Sep 2009 23:05:50 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=38638#comment-217478 world trade collapse http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/3998 world trade collapse
http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/3998

]]> By: Winston Munn http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/09/jim-grant-ringing-the-bell-at-the-top/comment-page-1/#comment-217477 Winston Munn Sun, 20 Sep 2009 22:56:48 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=38638#comment-217477 What Bernanke and Co. are attempting is an inflation to spur aggregate demand. The hole in their doughnut that prevents it from being a viable Danish is that demand is a natural result of shared productivity. Their attempt is really to create an inflation to protect supply pricing - it is really a hidden attempt at price controls - and it is something that has never worked. What Bernanke and Co. are attempting is an inflation to spur aggregate demand. The hole in their doughnut that prevents it from being a viable Danish is that demand is a natural result of shared productivity. Their attempt is really to create an inflation to protect supply pricing – it is really a hidden attempt at price controls – and it is something that has never worked.

]]> By: Steve Barry http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/09/jim-grant-ringing-the-bell-at-the-top/comment-page-1/#comment-217476 Steve Barry Sun, 20 Sep 2009 22:55:20 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=38638#comment-217476 BR: I see now that this was written by Panzner...I thought it sounded overly bearish for your current viewpoint...but the writing is similar to yours! BR: I see now that this was written by Panzner…I thought it sounded overly bearish for your current viewpoint…but the writing is similar to yours!

]]> By: Steve Barry http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/09/jim-grant-ringing-the-bell-at-the-top/comment-page-1/#comment-217467 Steve Barry Sun, 20 Sep 2009 21:47:30 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=38638#comment-217467 @ellidc: Never really thought about the details of "worthless cash"...just know that debasing your currency cannot be a good long term growth strategy. I see the dollar rallying as the market tanks anyway with gold plunging soon. @ellidc:

Never really thought about the details of “worthless cash”…just know that debasing your currency cannot be a good long term growth strategy. I see the dollar rallying as the market tanks anyway with gold plunging soon.

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