The Big Picture - Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Technology, and Digital Media

The July FHFA Home Price Index rose .3% m/o/m, .2% less than expected and June was revised lower to a gain of .1%, down from the initial report of up .5%. Y/o/Y prices are down 4.2% and are (only) 10.5% below its April 2007 high. According to the FHFA, their index is back to the March ’05 level. This measure only includes those single family mortgages that are backed by FNM and FRE but is well diversified geographically (includes all 50 states). The Case-Shiller HPI index in contrast includes jumbo loans and also doesn’t include data from 13 states. Its 20 city index is down 33% from the all time high. The Case-Shiller index is value-weighted, “meaning that price trends for more expensive homes have greater influence on estimated price changes than other homes.” FHFA’s index “weights price trends equally for all properties.” Thus, take today’s info in conjunction with others to get a more complete picture on pricing trends.