These charts paint a not so pretty picture:

>

click for ginormous charts

Unemployment-august-1948-2009

unemployment-august-1999-2009-all-months

>

hat tip RM

Category: Employment

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

20 Responses to “Long Term Unemployment Rate”

  1. franklin411 says:

    Wow you’d think the economy was hit by some sort of unprecedented financial crisis.

  2. torrie-amos says:

    That graph is banned from all news outlets, and especially beranke and geitners desks, don’t want to bother anyone with mere facts during a crisis.

  3. anewc2 says:

    Any graph that shows raw numbers over six decades, as the first one does, really should show some indication of population growth (or labor force, or whatever, but something). The current data would still stand out, but without the odor of disingenuousness.

  4. alfred e says:

    WOW! The monthly contributions kind of puts the lie to the notion conditions are easing.

    The population has not grown nearly enough to make any previous recession comparable to unemployment today. Unless you know how to count illegals. And my guess is their employment rate is holding more steady. Slave labor anyone?

    How anyone can expect us to be exiting a recession in light of these charts must be on the sunny elite side of the street. Slave labor good. Yacht building just became more profitable.

  5. going broke says:

    anewc2 Says:
    “Any graph that shows raw numbers over six decades, as the first one does, really should show some indication of population growth (or labor force, or whatever, but something). The current data would still stand out, but without the odor of disingenuousness.”

    August 2009 = 4988
    August 2008 = 1878
    166% increase
    I doubt the population grew that much.

    The 1st chart shows the drastic one year change from the normal deviation of past years.
    Second chart… Compare the block sizes from last year, each months block in 2009 is steadly growing larger.

  6. leftback says:

    Yup. Since most of the media lives in DC and NY, which are still booming for now, they don’t see or feel, the truth.

  7. going broke says:

    @ leftback

    They see it, they really do… but if they report bad news they’d be a number on this chart :)

  8. GB says:

    CR has better population employment graph to those interested
    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/09/employment-population-ratio-part-time.html

    funny i remember my parents being really stressed out in the early 80′s. We are almost there.

  9. batmando says:

    another ugly chart @http://www.chartoftheday.com/20090904.htm?T
    “As today’s chart illustrates, the current job market has suffered losses that are more than six times as much as average (20 months after the beginning of a recession). In fact, if this were an average recession/job loss cycle, the number of jobs would have begun to increase five months ago.”

  10. Pat G. says:

    I smell a 2nd stimulus coming in order to expand unemployment benefits and to boost the incumbent parties’ ratings right around election time. Anybody take a closer look at the Prices Paid component of the ISM number the other day? Oh, and the “vaunted” CPI of which oil makes up I believe, 40% of that number. Soon the y-o-y comparisons will start being negligible. Deflation?

  11. alfred e says:

    @Pat: Don’t forget the need to keep preventing states and munis fromBK. Stimulus 2.

  12. leftback says:

    @Don’t forget the need to keep preventing states and munis fromBK. Stimulus 2.

    Yes, but not yet, we need a second crash before they can sell Stimulus 2. All in good time…

  13. Novemberrain says:

    I think this skyrocketing rate of unemployment is the root cause for the nation’s housing crisis.
    The unemployment rate in the nation, which stands at 9.7% currently, may even increase to alarming double digit number making the financial situation even worse for the borrowers to repay. The layoffs of many workers have been permanent and hence, their hopelessness in recovery of the jobs or helplessness to repay mortgage over time looks bleak and they resort to foreclosure than choosing to invest or borrow more money on something that they are not sure whether they would be able to afford in the long run.

    Read More :
    http://www.housingnewslive.com

  14. [...] are two beautiful longer-term charts from Barry Ritholtz. Above we can see unemployment looking back at the 10-year moving average like Neil Armstrong from [...]

  15. [...] news: The number of people unemployed for more than six months? Growing. By bread lines and bounds. Good news: Now that you know, you can get a jumpstart on thinking up your porn name. Because, [...]

  16. jturner says:

    Most of the smart economic people I follow think the rate will peak around 11% sometime in 2010. I tend to agree with this view, and I also think that the rate is going to stay in the 8-10% area for several years after the peak, given the lack of catalysts for jobs in this country.

  17. Pat G. says:

    @ leftback

    “Yes, but not yet, we need a second crash before they can sell Stimulus 2.”

    What’s more important; the U.S. markets or U.S. people?

  18. Avl Dao says:

    a Structural Economic Transformation was unfolding, particularly by the 3rd recession, aka the bookending ‘Double-Dip’ of 1980 & 1981-82. Jobs that were loss did not ‘come back’; that’s the distinguishing hallmark of a structural transformation rather than a recession & recovery.

    Why are we so reluctant to see it this go-round?
    One factor at play is that this go-round portends structural job pains for white-collar knowledge workers (in vulnerable sectors in banking, real estate, hospitality & tourism, retail, and other service sectors dependent on debt-enabled spending by over-leveraged households). These are people whom are the spouses & adult children & friends & neighbors of those who typically identify such economic trends and race to be the first to report it.
    This time, the structural changes are not happening exclusively to those ‘other folks’, those distant blue-collar mfg workers who bore the brunt from 1973-1982.
    This time it’s awfully close to home
    Perhaps it’s easier to notice the stench of decayed dead flesh in your neighbor’s house than it is to notice that stench in your own house.

  19. Avl Dao says:

    opps, missed my opening sentance:

    Seems we did a better job during the triumphirate recessions of 1973-1982 in recognizing a Structural Economic Transformation was unfolding, particularly by the 3rd recession, aka the bookending ‘Double-Dip’ of 1980 & 1981-82.