NFP = -216k; Unemployment = 9.7%
The monthly NFP improved slightly, with total NFP job losses at 216k. This brings the lost jobs total up to 7.4 million since the recession began in December 2007.
Losses were concentrated in construction, manufacturing and financial jobs. July NFP was revised downwards to 276,000.
The U3 Unemployment rate spiked to 9.7% — levels not seen since 1983. Can 10% be very far behind?
The average workweek was unchanged at 33.1 hours. Losses in Temp Help seem to have moderated.
BLS:
“Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline in August (-216,000), and the unemployment rate rose to 9.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Although job losses continued in many of the major industry sectors in August, the declines have moderated in recent months.
In August, the number of unemployed persons increased by 466,000 to 14.9 million, and the unemployment rate rose by 0.3 percentage point to 9.7 percent. The rate had been little changed in June and July, after increasing 0.4 or 0.5 percentage point in each month from December 2008 through May. Since the recession began in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons has risen by 7.4 million, and the unemployment rate has grown by 4.8 percentage points.”
Big spike up in unemployment likely has to do with some of the oddities surrounding the labor pool and recent large bankruptcies i.e., GM/Chrysler).
>
Source:
Employment Situation News Release
BLS, September 4, 2009
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_09042009.htm
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September 4th, 2009 at 8:45 am
Look at the revisions too…everyone got excited about June, July and August but they all were revised higher.
If you look at the alternative rate that includes discouraged and part time workers it is now at 16.8%
I am not sure exactly how this could be spun as “positive” as I see on TV right now.
I just heard the classic line “a sea of negatives but less negative”
September 4th, 2009 at 8:48 am
Also Barry what about the stress test factor.
If you look at these 2 scenarios:
Baseline scenario
Economy — Shrinks by 2% (adjusted for inflation) in 2009 and grows by 2.1% in 2010.
Unemployment — Averages 8.4% in 2009 and 8.8% in 2010.
Home prices — Drop by 14% in 2009 (from where they ended December 2008) and drop 4% in 2010 (from December 2009).
More adverse scenario
Economy — Shrinks by 3.3% in 2009 and grows by 0.5% in 2010.
Unemployment — Averages 8.9% in 2009 and 10.3% in 2010.
Home prices — Drop 22% in 2009 (from where they ended December 2008) and drop 7% in 2010 (from December 2009).
it appears we are now approaching realistically the more adverse scenario for 2010
September 4th, 2009 at 8:53 am
there are three phases to to ‘recovery’.
1. loss of jobs
2. net zero job gain/loss
3. job gain
we’re still in phase 1 and with 150k-200k jobs needed monthly to keep up with population growth and over 6 million people collecting jobless benefits this will be the longest recovery in the history of the world.
September 4th, 2009 at 8:53 am
Note also, the Birth/Death Adjustment is getting its groove back: +118,000
http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm
September 4th, 2009 at 8:56 am
Barry (or anybody else that may know) -How do economist make predictions for payrolls and unemployment and have the actual employment number come in better than estimates and yet the unemployment rate come in higher than expected? Does this just mean that some of those people that had given up looking for a job have now reentered the job search market?
September 4th, 2009 at 9:00 am
The infamous birth/death number magically added 118,000 jobs to the number.
September 4th, 2009 at 9:11 am
I am not sure exactly how this could be spun as “positive” as I see on TV right now.
———-
It’s like the cold calling strategy: Stay postive because the more rejections you get, the closer you get to that potential win.
September 4th, 2009 at 9:12 am
Jobs are not fungible. Bank President and pizza delivery guy both count as one job. Many of the jobs that went away will not be replaced by their equivalent when we begin our “recovery”.
September 4th, 2009 at 9:13 am
roflmao, damm appropriate analogy
September 4th, 2009 at 9:19 am
I previously predicted 11% this year and topping out at 12% for U3 early next year. But it usually goes up less than 1 after the end of a recession. Now it seems that I may have been to pessimistic, unless we get a double dip.
September 4th, 2009 at 9:28 am
Are Peter Boockvar’s macro notes on temporary hiatus?
September 4th, 2009 at 9:39 am
All about the revisions, baby… not the benjamins.
September 4th, 2009 at 9:40 am
In the earlier part of the decade we had the jobless recovery.
Now it appears we are headed for the Job-Loss Recovery©.
At the small business I work at, we’ve went from 200 employees in the year 2000 down to 15 in March of this year. Orders totally dried up from January through May. Things cut loose in June with a lot projects that had been on hold for months finally being released. Enough so to carry us through the end of the year. What I’m seeing now is a lull in new proposal activity which would generate business for next year.
From my perspective, the “end of the recession” has merely been the release of postponed business and the “double dip recession” will soon be arriving.
September 4th, 2009 at 9:41 am
cnbc, talking heads, “oh jobs are coming”…..”from where”…..”oh companies too aggressive in lay-offs” was the only answer………..bejezes……….someone answer me this, where will growth in sales come from and i will tell you where the jobs will come from…………is thinking dead?
September 4th, 2009 at 9:42 am
August is always a light month for layoffs. How can you fire people when you are at the beach? Remember that we are about to see housing and auto sales go back into the deep freeze. If retail is looking a bit soft in September, you might see a pick up in layoffs into the Fall and less holiday hiring. Especially if we get another Red October™.
September 4th, 2009 at 9:49 am
Lefty:
I quite agree that looking at the road, up ahead is the (supposed) stoppage of income tax credit for first time home buyers, the effects of stopping the cash for clunkers (already has cut the sales rate in half, as we’ve already posted), the expiration of the Bush tax cuts (or simply stated, tax increases all around…)….and if you noticed, since California and several other states passed their budgets, they are ONCE AGAIN in deficit….
Interesting times…
September 4th, 2009 at 9:51 am
@LB
Speaking of Reds… cvienne picked up a little FXP this morning…
I’m being patient on SPX… I’m waiting for that 1014 print (which I saw in the premarket)…
September 4th, 2009 at 9:52 am
Dollar…
Nice boy…good doggy!
September 4th, 2009 at 9:54 am
One thing’s for sure, money managers who listened to the right wing media tell us how Obama is going to ruin America – and now will “indoctrinate our children” – and didn’t invest this Spring and Summer will definitely lose their jobs.
Another gift to the Obama administration by the right wing nuts. Are these the same wingnuts who wouldn’t countenance any disagreement with the President “at a time of war?” Independents are going to just laugh at these people. How are they going to rebuild the GOP doing this nonsense?
And, like these kids going to listen to their crusty old folks an not YouTube it anyway.
September 4th, 2009 at 9:54 am
Romer is on Bloomberg right now trying to spin 9.7% into a “positive” number…
What a toolette!
September 4th, 2009 at 9:57 am
Yet another number confirming the ocean of positive economic data over the last 6 months. The numbers all point in one direction: recovery. I’m sure those who hate the President will try to explain why we shouldn’t believe the truth. They’ll tell us that our eyes are lying to us when we look up and observe that the sky is blue or the sun is yellow. They’ll tell us that actually, the sky is yellow and the Sun is black. However, their arguments increasingly ring hollow, and it is undeniable that the Green Shoots have become Green Saplings.
September 4th, 2009 at 9:59 am
“US nominal household incomes are now contracting at an unprecedented rate. The largest component of household income is wages and salaries which had been declining some 1% yoy. But after revisions the statisticians now admit to an unprecedented 4.8% decline! Total pre-tax household income is now recorded as falling 3.4% yoy in June.”
Green chutes!
September 4th, 2009 at 9:59 am
You are right again, as usual, Venn.
I think we should just outlaw having to have congress go through the pain and suffering of proposing and ratifying a budget every year! Simply a waste of money…just spend what you want, and soon enough….Nirvana!
Thanks for the suggestions!
September 4th, 2009 at 10:01 am
Franklin:
I hope you are spending that 40 bucks Obama gave you at the start of the year…velocity of money and all that, eh, old chappy!
September 4th, 2009 at 10:02 am
@f411
To borrow a portion from an old campaign speech, and modernize it, thus…
“Read my lips… No new JOBS”
September 4th, 2009 at 10:03 am
@ Left:
TNX below 33 and the risk trade is officially off. Kiss of death on 8/31… 20 ema crossing below 50 ema.
This has been a pretty money indicator of late. (better than the VIX if you ask I and I) If it cant break below 33 then equities make another run starting on Tuesday.
September 4th, 2009 at 10:03 am
@Bruce
He already spent the $40 on his Obama jammies… That’s why he wakes up so happy every day :-)
September 4th, 2009 at 10:06 am
cv: I’m being patient on SPX… I’m waiting for that 1014 print (which I saw in the premarket)…
I don’t know about that one. All I saw was 1009.75 this morning the futures…market reversed into the 38% of the entire decline and 50% of the most recent whoosh, and now it’s meandering nearer the lows….I hope we get up there, but I’m not so sure.
It’s a strange world when losing 200K jobs seems good….
September 4th, 2009 at 10:06 am
By the way, Frankie, when you presented your magnum opus to your class the other day on economics….did you get any fiscally conservative nutjobs ask you any tough questions on how this degree of spending could be justified? Or did you serve the Frankie kool-aid prior to class?
….just wondering….
September 4th, 2009 at 10:07 am
@I-Man
I think the way the market closes today will say a lot about your (10:03)…
So far it’s going pretty much as I’d expected… Stay tuned…
September 4th, 2009 at 10:09 am
@Bruce
If there were any so-called fiscal conservatives in class, they were silenced on Tuesday when I pointed out that George W. Bush’s $3 trillion tax cuts on the rich between 2001 and 2003 passed with overwhelming support from the GOP.
September 4th, 2009 at 10:12 am
@f411
I’m sure as soon as your lecture was over, they all went home and made a $100 donation to the DNC…
September 4th, 2009 at 10:12 am
Well, I hope your counterpoint was that massive government intervention is the same thing as tax increases…thank goodness you balanced that out!
September 4th, 2009 at 10:14 am
OT:
Anyone else had the experience of waking up to find that you can no longer trade any non-traditional ETFs on margin? No leveraged ETFs or ETNs period… in any direction. Still havent decided if this is a blessing or a curse. It sure was nice to be able to swing and day trade the ultras while it lasted. The official reason I read was “to protect investors”… pffttt.
September 4th, 2009 at 10:15 am
mdsteinphd,
“The infamous birth/death number magically added 118,000 jobs to the number.”
No, it didn’t. The number is the seasonally adjusted number. The B/D model added 118,000 to the non-seasonally adjusted number.
rc
September 4th, 2009 at 10:15 am
@lb: I can attest that you are right about summer. Layoffs and everything else always slows down in the summer. It will be back to reality this fall and winter on that and many other fronts. Mark it down.
September 4th, 2009 at 10:16 am
“However, their arguments increasingly ring hollow, and it is undeniable that the Green Shoots have become Green Saplings.”
Its hard for me to see much positive in a 9.7% government and 16.8% real unemployment rate. When “less bad” is the New Good and “getting worse at a slower rate” is a recovery, our expectations have seriously sunk to a low level.
September 4th, 2009 at 10:16 am
And we are saving money now that the new administration has removed us from the two wars they promised us they would….I do now have some difficulty in calculating just how much money we have saved now that all the troops have come home in this peace-loving administration….
September 4th, 2009 at 10:19 am
Hoping to see a little strength in what Denninger calls “used dog food stocks” as a sign that JOHNNY is still active. Already short and will sell into any pump that the HFT random number mechanisms care to generate.
Those barbecues at BRIAN’S are going to be somethin’ this year, all those MONSTER gains in C, BAC and FNM.!!
September 4th, 2009 at 10:21 am
@erikpupo
Horrible is the prerequisite for bad, which is the prerequisite for less bad, which is the prerequisite for slightly good, which is the prerequisite for good, which is the prerequisite for very good.
September 4th, 2009 at 10:21 am
@f411: I, for one, don’t hate the president at all. Have been rooting for him in a big way but he’s shown no courage or boldness when both are clearly needed right now. It’s all about half-measures and incrementalism with him. When things are as fucked up as they are now, incrementalism and half-measures are still the wrong route. These consensus-seeking traits would be fantastic in normal times. We are not living in normal times. Sadly, I fear it will be his undoing and he will look back and wish that he had handled things differently with the banking system.
September 4th, 2009 at 10:27 am
“Are Peter Boockvar’s macro notes on temporary hiatus?”
Im sure he’s away for vacation.
September 4th, 2009 at 10:29 am
“How do economist make predictions for payrolls and unemployment and have the actual employment number come in better than estimates and yet the unemployment rate come in higher than expected? Does this just mean that some of those people that had given up looking for a job have now reentered the job search market?”
There are fluctuations beneath the headline related to the size of the work force and the number of unemployed persons. In the current month, the labor force increased by 73K but the number of unemployed persons rose by 466K. More unemployed persons means a higher unemployment rate.
September 4th, 2009 at 10:30 am
f411-
you’re an idiot- my only guess is that your student’s laugh at you
venndata-
get your head out of obama’s ass
September 4th, 2009 at 10:30 am
Franklin:
I agree with Manny. Don’t just play in the mud. Make a mud pie or get out, but don’t just sit there. The Iraq/Afghanistan Wars were ill-conceived, IMO, since I was in the army in the 70′s…I know what ill-conceived wars look like. But tell your hero that we are not doing anything by increasing that national debt in this fashion…why no less a personage than Elizabeth Warren feels that the bank bailouts were probably not needed….! (This was on A Cup of Joe that was posted within the last 10 days…)
How are we going to pay this sucker off Frankie? This is the point in the debate where the big spenders suddenly get quiet….the waiter is going to present us with the check…and we can’t sit at the big boy table all night and think the bill is going away….
September 4th, 2009 at 10:31 am
Later, guys…4 day holiday!!!!
September 4th, 2009 at 10:31 am
Agree with Manwich. I wish the President well in his job. But when it comes to resolving Economic issues, he is pretty much making the same mistakes as the previous President did. But in the end it’s the Corporations and Wall Street that controls the government not the other way around. So it doesn’t matter who/what party is at the helm of the empire.
September 4th, 2009 at 10:33 am
It was interesting to watch Mohamed El-Erian on CNBC today. Robert Barbera kept talking about “second derivative” and El-Erian very astutely pointed out that a trend can have a positive 2nd derivative for a prolonged period, while the 1st derivative remains consistently negative. In other words, 2nd derivative improvement is a necessary, but not sufficient for economic improvement!
I’ll say things are truly getting better when we add enough jobs each month just to absorb population growth (+200k, I believe). Until then, we’re still headed towards a bad place, albeit at a slower pace.
HCF
September 4th, 2009 at 10:34 am
@f411
Oh the linearity of it all…
Why stop there? Very Good is the prerequisite for speculation… speculation is the prerequisite for bubble… bubble is the prerequisite for CRASH…
September 4th, 2009 at 10:40 am
IOW – Franklin
Your boy isn’t changing the world…
Your boy simply came to the dinner table, was handed the check, saw a bunch of drunk happy people at the table, and proceeded to order 3 more bottles of champagne…
September 4th, 2009 at 10:41 am
Franklin411,
“Yet another number confirming the ocean of positive economic data over the last 6 months. The numbers all point in one direction: recovery.”
According to Miriam-Webster:
” * Main Entry: re·cov·ery
* Pronunciation: \ri-ˈkə-və-rē, -ˈkəv-rē\
* Function: noun
* Inflected Form(s): plural re·cov·er·ies
* Date: 15th century
1 : the act, process, or an instance of recovering; especially : an economic upturn (as after a depression)
2 : the process of combating a disorder (as alcoholism) or a real or perceived problem”
I suppose the first meaning has relevance in the context here. In what way is an increase in the number of unemployed persons by 466,000 a positive data point that points toward an economic upturn? Please explain this.
BTW: Have you got any idea already how the US economy will generate enough income in the future so that the biggest debt bubble maybe in history (about 50 trillion US dollars; makes 2.5 trillion US-dollars required interest payment a year, assuming an average interest rate of 5%) or at least the interest on this debt can be paid off? What will happen when the net debtors can’t pay off their debt and interest on it anymore? You told me a while ago, debt isn’t an issue. So you apparently think the mountain of debt doesn’t matter for how things will play out in the future. Thus, you should know the answer to my question then.
rc
September 4th, 2009 at 10:41 am
@franklin411:
You seem to believe that everyone is either against the President and therefore against green shoots and a V-shaped, or for all those things. How about Stiglitz? How about Roubini? Last time I checked, both were left of center and Obama supporters? Do you question their credentials because their view differs from the administration’s?
Stiglitz: Odds of Robust US Rebound ‘Very, Very Weak’:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/32684129
‘U-Shaped’ Economic Recovery Is Possible: Roubini
http://www.cnbc.com/id/32689268
You can support a political candidate or a political party without being a mindless drone or partisan. It is one thing if the majority of people here conducted ad hominem attacks on the President, but that is not the way it is. Most of us have legitimate concern about policies, datas, trends, etc. Some independent thought and analysis from you would be nice, rather than the tired policy of posting “GREEN SHOOTS” everytime some data is better than horrible and merely bad…
HCF
September 4th, 2009 at 10:43 am
CV: Here’s your pump, baby!! SPX 1014 by lunch, then it’s Black Helicopter Time from the roof of 85 Broad.
Gold is melting, in the face of an equity rally and even a weakening dollar. Poor gold bugs… so close to $1000!!
“I looove gold, Mister Bond”.
September 4th, 2009 at 10:46 am
@LB
I’d love to see that move… It’s going to be ballsy to play it, but it seems like just the ticket…
I’m kind of hoping the move will whip FAZ down for a quick flash at $24.25 or so so I can start a position there…
September 4th, 2009 at 10:46 am
Whoooaaaaa dudes and dudetts, it’s your favorite stoner here -How’s it all hanging with you?
Anyway my little bro is being all grumpy today cuz mom made him do he dishes last night.
Oh BTW ever since we were weeee little ones, he always liked to start arguements, you see he never has a real answer, if you ask him a question and he desides to answer he will only answer with another question or a red herring, Oh BTW he is the same way wih his students, maybe that is why the tend NOT to ask the hard question (They’re going for the easy B)
Oh BTW this is the third time I used BTW today….. OK forth time now, but whos counting.
September 4th, 2009 at 10:52 am
@big franklin
It must be easy to get a B or an A in little franklins class…
Just toe the party line with regards to propaganda in terms of how you write your essays and it’s a breeze…
Otherwise, so long GPA…
September 4th, 2009 at 10:54 am
Added to shorts already. Would be looking at spx 1012 as a chance to add more. At some point there will be an awful lot of secondary offerings in the banks/REIT space, so that dilution is going to be a big factor in Q4, not to mention the fact that EoY accounting will have to be a great deal more honest than the EoQ lipstick applications. Seems to me like the bull market in turd polishing is coming to a close.
September 4th, 2009 at 10:56 am
@leftback
Auric Goldfinger to 007…
“No Mr. Bond…I wan’t you to DIE”!
September 4th, 2009 at 10:57 am
(wishes he had shorted the obvious 999 Gold Tease)
September 4th, 2009 at 11:00 am
Interesting tidbit forthcoming (for anyone amused by such things)…
Yesterday, both the S&P and Gold hit 999… The inverse (flip over) number to 666 (March lows on S&P)…
September 4th, 2009 at 11:00 am
f411, optimists at large,
I would point out that average hours worked is still falling – to a new low(since at least ’64). Not quite so green shooty.
Also, refuting someone who asks you to justify current spending by pointing out the GWB spent like a drunken sailor too is to confuse a question of economic policy with one of partisan politics. The GOP’s spending under Bush is subject to the same question from a fiscal conservative. Both administrations(parties) need to answer the question of how are we going to pay for all this? Especially in an economy that’s not growing. Your “refutation” is a classic example of a red herring. As a nation, we’re still broke, whether Bush got us there or Obama did.
September 4th, 2009 at 11:01 am
@HCF
Stiglitz and Roubini have axes to grind. Stiglitz didn’t get the fancy spot in the admin he wanted, and Roubini has turned doomsaying into a cottage industry.
@RC
We’ve been over this before. You think that the world will wait for us to slowly retool our economy so we’re competitive in the 21st century–slowly, because we can’t pay off debt and invest for the future at the same time. I think that the world isn’t waiting for us to get smart–they smell blood, and they know that if we’re stupid enough to stop investing in our economy they can finally knock us off.
@Manhattan and Mannwich
Political reality.
September 4th, 2009 at 11:04 am
1009… Money, Andy.
September 4th, 2009 at 11:06 am
You’re a lucky man Franklin,
you can see green shoots and a positive outlook out of millions unemployed for a long time.
I guess the government spending trillions a year for a decade in order to keep some balance lining up the same old pockets is a good thing.
I don’t hate Obama, I just don’t believe in image driven politics.
But I have to question his honesty and his ability, he has not been able or willing to change anything worth a toast.
The Healthcare bill?
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/20090903_dont_be_fooled_by_the_public_option/
September 4th, 2009 at 11:07 am
HCF-
very thoughtful response to f411- we’ve all tried over these many months- but- to no avail- so good try- he is however lost in the grip of partisan rhetoric- you’re either agin obama or for obama- so thoughtful analysis critiquing obama puts you in the agin him camp (in f411′s mind)-
lb-
“do you expect me to talk”
“no Mr. Bond, I expect you to die”
classic line
September 4th, 2009 at 11:10 am
F411 @10:09 -”they were silenced”
That’s the awesome new university education system. Professors who want to silence debate and inquiry. It’s all about “teaching” the truth, not investigating reality. Obama would be very proud of you.
September 4th, 2009 at 11:10 am
cv-
you beat me to one of the all time classic lines
September 4th, 2009 at 11:13 am
@f411
Franklin, the bottom line is this…
If you are a President, and allow or authorize measures which are UNFUNDED to come into policy…
Whether they be…
- tax cuts (in the name of stimulating enteprise)
- wars (in the name of protecting cheap, vital, imported resources)
- or stimulus (in the name of extending unemployment benefits, and bailing out zombie entities)
It’s the same result in the end.
Frankly, I don’t think there is anyone in the GOP who has the backbone to do what is necessary either, but we’ll never know will we…
What IS a fact is that the Democrats are in office, it’s business as usual, and getting worse…
September 4th, 2009 at 11:18 am
@f411
“You think that the world will wait for us to slowly retool our economy ”
Now THAT is a line I agree with Frankie my boy!
I’m 100% of the impression that BO is presiding over us “re-TOOL-ing” ourselves (lefty I need a trademark for that)…
By 2012, we’ll all be TOOLS!
September 4th, 2009 at 11:20 am
Alright, before this turns into a complete politricks slugfest…
The FPTP system in this country is broken and we all know it. Doesnt matter if you are democrat or republican, you get the same shit in the end. Thats the fatal flaw of a two party system.
And none of it is going to change until the millions of unemployed Americans band together and demand change… not chickenshit “change”… but real, get your hands dirty change.
If I was a billionaire, like a Gates or Buffett, I would be chartering busses right now to Washington from every major city full of people who have lost their jobs and bus them straight to the white house lawn. I’d even buy them tents and provisions to stay there as long as it takes to wake those dickwads in DC the fuck up.
September 4th, 2009 at 11:27 am
“You can support a political candidate or a political party without being a mindless drone or partisan.”
Uh, no he can’t. And that’s why he has zero credibility and why I’m continually amazed that people still try to reason with him.
September 4th, 2009 at 11:30 am
@Onlooker:
Maybe I should have been more generic and said “One can support…”
It is indeed difficult to reason with ones who do not want to be reasoned with.
HCF
September 4th, 2009 at 11:31 am
my broadband connection is moving at glacial speed this morning- and speaking of glacial-
http://www.creditwritedowns.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/darwin_change_thumb.png
maybe this is what obama meant
iman says-
“wake those dickwads in DC the fuck up.’
i am shocked and offended that you could speak about our elected officials that way- they’re working their ass of for us- especially Rangel
September 4th, 2009 at 11:32 am
@Franklin411:
“We’ve been over this before. You think that the world will wait for us to slowly retool our economy so we’re competitive in the 21st century–slowly, because we can’t pay off debt and invest for the future at the same time.”
Well, now you fantasize something about what I am thinking, allegedly. BTW: Who exactly is “us”? I am not part of your gang.
“I think that the world isn’t waiting for us to get smart–they smell blood, and they know that if we’re stupid enough to stop investing in our economy they can finally knock us off.”
Excuse me, what you think what the world wants to do to you and to your gang doesn’t answer any of the questions that I asked. It doesn’t answer how the US economy will generate enough income in the future so that the mountain of debt and the interest on it can be paid off and what will happen when the net debtors can’t pay anymore. Again, you try to distract by putting out a strawman argument here. I guess an explanation for the unemployment number as positive data point that allegedly points toward “recovery” won’t come come from you, either.
rc
September 4th, 2009 at 11:32 am
hopeImwrong
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/09/nfp-216k-unemployment-9-7/comment-page-2/#comment-211992
Well said, and depressing, and maddening.
September 4th, 2009 at 11:34 am
@ iman 11:20 – Totally agree. Republilcan = Democrat. Same crap, different party. I’m not sure how you get real change out of a currupt (it’s all about the money and self-interest) system.
September 4th, 2009 at 11:36 am
LB finds that there is something missing at TBP when the Mistress of the Stick is not offering barbed commentary.
A bit dull today, so LB is off for a walk in the September sunshine, expects the markets to be intact on his return.
LB also notes a one-day international match is in progress – England v Australia, always entertaining, right, CV?
September 4th, 2009 at 11:39 am
I-Man
It would be sweet to see Gates, Buffett, Bloomberg, somebody, do just that, wouldn’t it? You just know that folks out there are seething right now, but they feel powerless. Calling your congressman/woman just doesn’t do much any more. Money talks, or a huge mass of people on the Mall in D.C.; that would speak volumes. It would make it impossible for the blowhards in D.C. to ignore the people in favor of the banks, et al.
September 4th, 2009 at 11:39 am
Sorry Ahab… I get carried away sometimes. ;)
September 4th, 2009 at 11:47 am
Actually, the only idea I have for real change, since I don’t trust the USG, and I don’t truth the big corporations, is decentralization.
Let states diverge in their laws and regulations so the best would prosper.
Encourage smaller businesses rather than supporting and building and writing laws to protect and favor TBTF businesses.
Allow states to opt out of federal control.
Allow communities to opt out of state and federal control.
Get some diversity in the business base and in the cultural and ecomonic laws and regulations.
Allow some states to vote socialism for themselves (with their own money, like a few have done with state healthcare). Allow others to be “lazze faire” if they want. Heck, I’ll even let a state of local community vote for anarchy. What about legalizing street drugs? Sure. Why not?
Centralization has allowed the scale of possible corruption to increase to a point where “statemen” don’t stand a chance in the system.
Oh yeah, create some kind of system to support general population mobility so they can move to where they want within the US to live under the socio-economic rules they prefer.
I know, I’m out there on the thin bramches, but I’ve thought about this, and I don’t see changing the system from within. It just doesn’t seem to be in the card. This is a way to take the system apart, and create zones run under different rules to allow prosperity to blossom where it can.
September 4th, 2009 at 11:53 am
@LB
How can a sport that breaks for TEA not be interesting?
September 4th, 2009 at 11:59 am
@lb
cvienne bailed out of the ZSL bought yesterday at $5.90 at $6.12 for tiny tiny profit… I’d rather see divergence on the MACD (even though it appears to be overbought at the moment)…
It’s that “divergence move” up that has me a little leery…
September 4th, 2009 at 12:08 pm
All the stops above 1008 on the S&P just got hit. NFP probably not a factor.
September 4th, 2009 at 12:09 pm
I’ll never doubt you again CV.
September 4th, 2009 at 12:11 pm
@LB
cvienne is delighted to see his 1014 target being reached, whereby he ponders a move to 1016 – 1020, and initiates with buying OCT puts…
September 4th, 2009 at 12:16 pm
@I-Man
You can doubt me with the DOLLAR all you want… That’s a dog that just won’t fetch…
I’m sticking with it though…
September 4th, 2009 at 12:18 pm
I really didnt think we would see an 1014 print today… or a reversal in gold/silver… or crude.
September 4th, 2009 at 12:21 pm
TNX is approaching some serious resistance here around 34.20 tho… wonder if this will hold.
September 4th, 2009 at 12:21 pm
@I-Man
It’s all fun & games…
I hardly ever watch TV, but I find myself here with the TV on (and the sound turned off), tuned to Bloomberg…
I’m amusing myself watching his eyes read off a cue card how the Stimulus Plan is working (according to the captions)…
Funny stuff!
September 4th, 2009 at 12:23 pm
Dollar is on the brink….this could get interesting today.
September 4th, 2009 at 12:24 pm
Nice, cvienne.
September 4th, 2009 at 12:24 pm
The DOLLAR started out strong this morning and then got shanghaied…
It’s going to have to make a spectacular recovery (back to FLAT would be OK), or the market “correction” we’ve been waiting for might get postponed another week…
September 4th, 2009 at 12:27 pm
@Andy T
FWIW – Even though the dollar looks like it’s teetering, you yourself are aware of the flat triangle going on at the end of what looks like the 5 wave…
I’ve also seen some “double no touch” props, & strangles being put on recently…
So I’m thinking SCARE, but stay…
September 4th, 2009 at 12:43 pm
Get ready for the next pump but it won’t be enough to take out the highs. It will however lead in to the long weekend with Brian and Harry high fiving over some light beers and the Bar-B talking about their wonderful returns. The bulls will be content with dodging the bullet and reclaiming a little bit of lost ground. The bears will be frustrated – again – as they become fewer in numbers. In the end, this market is going nowhere for a couple more weeks as the jobs weren’t good or bad enough (depending on perspective) to give any real indication. However the last 2 weeks have given the warning to get out. The tide has turned and we are heading down, down, down and the flames will be higher and it will burn, burn, burn those who don’t take their 50% now.
September 4th, 2009 at 12:49 pm
Following the script almost PERFECTLY, cv… the dollar will be backstopped here by $1000 gold. That’s a level that a lot of people don’t want to see broken. While gold stays below $1000, CBs can argue they are in CONTROL. So for the time being here, you’d have to argue for a dollar rally just before the barbecues are lit. Burn, baby, burn…
September 4th, 2009 at 12:49 pm
cvienne:
You ever dabble in xpp?
September 4th, 2009 at 12:49 pm
@cv – I’m buying puts too, so best of luck to you!
September 4th, 2009 at 12:55 pm
@Bruce
XPP? No, I’m not familiar with it…
@hope
The chart pattern tells me that we could end up getting a pump to around 1020 by the end of the day… I’m not real worried about it because the position (at 1014) I started was rather small…
Basically, I’m thinking two things:
1. If we rally to 1,020 the momentum might keep us going for another week (next week of 1,000+ trading, maybe even a move to 1,044)…
2. If we close BELOW 1008 today, this market is likely to correct starting next week…
Best of both worlds would be a quick run-up to 1020, then sell-off to under 1008…FOR BEARS
September 4th, 2009 at 12:59 pm
Smart money leaving the building:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20603037&sid=a1xw4v9Kwxss
Gold trading ends at 1.45, the helicopter will be leaving soon after that.
LB could laugh in the face if spx 1020, even a “kiss” of $1000 gold, but we’d have to reverse into the close.
September 4th, 2009 at 1:01 pm
@Bruce
Is that another leveraged ETF?
Mostly, when looking for leverage, I prefer to stick to options puts & calls on HIGH LIQUIDITY issues (like SPY)…or in T-Bonds…
If I ever do a FAZ or a ZSL, I’m usually only playing with ‘beer money’…
September 4th, 2009 at 1:02 pm
@LB
“LB could laugh in the face if spx 1020, even a “kiss” of $1000 gold, but we’d have to reverse into the close.”
—
You said it there my friend, especially the part after the comma.
September 4th, 2009 at 1:08 pm
Interesting battle at 1014. CV, I’m in at, oct 95 puts 1.32
September 4th, 2009 at 1:08 pm
I voted for Obama . He’s managing the country like he’s a CEO with a ton of stock options. Anything to make this quarter look good. Very disappointing. I should have voted for Paul or Nader.
September 4th, 2009 at 1:11 pm
I should have voted for Daffy or Bugs…:-)
September 4th, 2009 at 1:12 pm
Sure seems like the ppt is mia lately. I think we are in a range where they have bigger fish to fry. It would be so easy to push the market up here and hit all the day trader’s stops above 1014, I’m not sure what the hold up is, unless buyers really are losing control. At least, I hope they are.
September 4th, 2009 at 1:13 pm
I always thought 1000 on S&P would be a big battle ground, and so far it is. Maybe I’ll get more than a scalp this time.
September 4th, 2009 at 1:15 pm
Lispy Lloyd is already in the elevator, they are starting the engines. LB just shorted gold at $998.
Don’t give up on Obama just yet, what if he actually has a whole new can of Whoop Ass ready for the banksters this Fall? Maybe he needed JOHNNY to recapitalize the banks this summer before opening the Whoop Ass?
Now that all that cash is in the bank coffers, perhaps it’s time to ensure funding of the Treasury’s debt issuance, which means SELL Equities – Tough Titty for JOHNNY. Not BRIAN, though, he’s already made the FEES, baby.
Shhh…. Lloyd has just given the word: “Sell the SPOOS, and buy the TWOS”. They are leaving Saigon now….
September 4th, 2009 at 1:15 pm
@hope
I’m not sure it amounts to all of that…
We’re probably talking about a VOLUME issue here… It’s easy to push things around all summer when volume is light, and where 40% of the shares traded are C, AIG, FNM, & FRE…
Come Labor Day… You need deeper pockets…
September 4th, 2009 at 1:16 pm
@lb – hope you are right.
September 4th, 2009 at 1:17 pm
daffy says-
“I should have voted for Paul or Nader.”
sadly- it would have made no difference in the outcome- and don’t forget Kucinich- definitely knew where he stood–
no typical Washington doublespeak-
so what if he saw a UFO at Shirley Macclain’s home- like we all haven’t seen a ufo before:-)
September 4th, 2009 at 1:20 pm
“Don’t give up on Obama just yet, what if he actually has a whole new can of Whoop Ass ready for the banksters this Fall?”
don’t hold your breath lb
September 4th, 2009 at 1:22 pm
@hope: they could gun the SPOOS 25pts higher on light volume today
and it wouldn’t mean a damn thing… keep your eyes on the Euro, as long as it stays around here we are good.
September 4th, 2009 at 1:26 pm
cnbc sucks if you are lurking- i repsonded to a post of yours on another board-
them some low blows
September 4th, 2009 at 1:32 pm
@ahab
If that’s the case, does “CNBCSucks” need to change his mane to “CNBCBlows”?
September 4th, 2009 at 1:34 pm
well cvienne-
my guess is that the self titled “great” cnbc sucks is a man of many names
September 4th, 2009 at 1:34 pm
Our democracy is designed to prevent radical change. The minority can block legislation in the Senate, and prevent an override of a presidential veto. So it is a lot easier to prevent change from happening than it is to make change happen. Unfortunately the founding fathers did not foresee the extreme partisanship and polarization of the past 15 years, where we have lost the ability of two parties to work out a compromise. But politicians are just followng their constituents, look at the recent townhall meetings. The people have been Foxified, so all we have are idiots screaming lies at other idiots screaming back other lies. A fact-based analysis of problems, and working out a compromise is just not entertaining enough. Oh no, reality has to be a freaking “reality” show, with stupid little spoiled brads screaming at each other. In a democracy the people get the government they deserve, and that is unfortunately not much. Another decade of this and the sheple will be screaming for a dictator – and they will get that – and it will be about as successful as it was in Europe after the first great depression.
September 4th, 2009 at 1:35 pm
MACD cross on SLV on the 60 min. chart just 10 minutes before the 1:45 close… Stay tuned…
September 4th, 2009 at 1:38 pm
@ahab
…and a man of many D/ST’s…
A clever man, he is, for picking up the SAINTS defense (probably thinking that the Lions will throw 2 or three junk interceptions in Week 1)…
September 4th, 2009 at 1:43 pm
@ CV
So am I in that league or not? Never heard anything. I dont sweat either outcome.
September 4th, 2009 at 1:44 pm
Here comes the metals dump!
September 4th, 2009 at 1:45 pm
“He’s managing the country like he’s a CEO with a ton of stock options. Anything to make this quarter look good.”
It does very much have that feel to it, doesn’t it? Continue to keep pulling demand forward to bump up the numbers for this quarter and maybe next, regardless of the cost. Can they (he) still possibly be deluded enough to think that this B.S. will actually spark a sustained recovery? Can the mainstream, “classical” economists really not understand the effects of the debt? I’ve said it before; Obama needs to take at least a week off to just read the dissenting views on the blogosphere, if nothing else, without the continuing propaganda coming from his advisors. I’m sure it would be enlightening, and jarring. It might take more time than that though for the deprogramming. It does for most. But he’s supposed to be a very bright guy and should be quick on the uptake.
I’m of course giving him the benefit of the doubt that he truly doesn’t understand what’s going on here because he’s been too insulated from it for so long and strongly influenced by all the classical economists who are clueless (as repeatedly demonstrated), and the moneyed interests who have their own agenda. If that’s not that case then we’re really screwed, because there’s no chance of him waking up and taking the right (albeit painful) path to a sustainable economy. I’m sure I’m being naive’ here. But I only half believe it. Sigh
September 4th, 2009 at 1:49 pm
These levels are not accidental … you’d have to think someone was just pressing sell all day long at $997 Au.
Of course that may have been Schadenfreude’s desk but we are not quite that MASSIVE.
A bit of cash on hand here but will probably hold off for another day. We got short via some of our favorite vehicles.
September 4th, 2009 at 1:50 pm
cvienne:
about to head out the door for the afternoon hike, Mexican food tonight…BUT
Watched my boy Peyton a few days ago…he is cursed, like his father…
His father had no team…otherwise he’d have probably been spectacular.
Peyton…my oh my, they just seem to have forgotten how to draft defensive players in Indiana…his curse will be if they can’t do it on offense, there will be no other super bowls…
And my guess is that half a team won’t get it done..
September 4th, 2009 at 1:50 pm
Rough day for t-bonds. The relative strength in TIPS suggests fear of price inflation, possibly driven by the move in PMs. Certainly nothing else in the markets right now is pointing towards rising prices.
leftback says: “Don’t give up on Obama just yet, what if he actually has a whole new can of Whoop Ass ready for the banksters this Fall?”
The man has built his career on the backs of those who underestimated him.
Much respect to the people who had the courage to short the PMs yesterday. I bought some DZZ just after /YG rolled over, but exited flat, lacking the nerve to hold overnight.
September 4th, 2009 at 1:51 pm
@DeDude
dic·ta·tor
Pronunciation: \ˈdik-ˌtā-tər, dik-ˈ\
Function: noun
1 a : a person granted absolute emergency power;
2 : one that dictates
What would you call someone who indiscriminately appoints CZARS (without Congressional approval)? Or one who topples bondholders rights, in favor of giving equity stakes to union workers?
If that is the case, is it not possible that your “decade” of wait is already here?
And if that’s the case, is it possible that you’re making Hitler references here? Or, surely you must be talking about the next guy in line.
September 4th, 2009 at 1:54 pm
@I-Man
Sorry man, you’re OUT… I tried to e-mail you a half dozen times last week at the cole-diggy address…
No response (I know you were on vacation)… So I had to seal it up & move on…
:-(
September 4th, 2009 at 1:55 pm
iman-
thought you were there on draft day? no?
September 4th, 2009 at 1:55 pm
Dude… the long shadows on the intraday GLD charts the past few days are very telling… anyone else catch that last one on the 5 min chart? Insane.
September 4th, 2009 at 1:57 pm
No worries man… at all. I dont know whats up with yahoo mail… but it sucks. Just wanted to make sure.
We cool.
September 4th, 2009 at 1:57 pm
guess – cv answered my question- coud have sworn you were there
September 4th, 2009 at 1:57 pm
Chill: Thanks for agreeing that all Hope is not yet Lost, although it may well be Audacious to hold on to. I would love to see the banksters get slapped with compensation rules, clawbacks and some wickedly high tax brackets.
Eventually we will elect Ritholtz if we don’t get any satisfaction from DC.
We had a stop set at about $1020 in case of a spike among the gold bugs, but had a strong feeling that $1000 would hold, at least on a closing basis. The whole thing just smells like a trap for unwary retail investors who are convinced that the $ is going to zero, and the commodity markets know how to whip up hysteria and they love the rumor mill. Yesterday’s rumors were totally insane.
Posted this at Macro Man this morning:
“With both inflation and deflation perilously close to the terrifying figure of 0, and the sun’s radius still expanding inexorably on a daily basis, gold seems set to advance again today”, said Hans-Jürgen (“Hansi”) Oberscheißer, a commodity trader at Oberscheißer & Überscheißer Metallgesellschaft GmbH, this morning. “We also like the US unemployment figure of 9.7%”, he said. “This is very bullish for gold as unemployed Americans are known to order gold-plated faucets for their bath tubs, and gold hub caps for the Ford Pinto.”
September 4th, 2009 at 1:58 pm
@Seattle Chill
“The man has built his career on the backs of those who underestimated him.”
You may be right, but working as the “wunderkin” with the Chicago political machine at your back is different from playing in the NFL…
Nevertheless, you’re point is taken… Well said… Time will tell…
Re: bonds… I see some ordinary giveback there… At this point cvienne is entertaining the idea that the BV’s were watching the dollar and ringing some cowbells off in the distance…
September 4th, 2009 at 2:00 pm
If Obama does have a can of Whoop Ass that would be brilliant. Put Pandit’s head in a vise. 3 to 1 against.
How can someone “bright” not see this is short-term gain for long-term pain? They can’t.
September 4th, 2009 at 2:04 pm
i have a fever- and the only prescription is- more cowbell
September 4th, 2009 at 2:08 pm
@Bruce
Re: Peyton
Well, at least he got one ring…
Agreed on D, but you have to consider… Freeney leads a fierce pass rush that can close a pocket in no time flat… and the Colts play in a division (Tenn, Houston, Jax), that is full of QB’s who take longer in their reads and checkdowns, than, I suppose, it takes one of f411′s students to read one of his lecture assignments)…
So that’s 6 wins almost guaranteed, year after year… Toss in 3 more wins (out of 10 other games) and you’re in the playoffs without a sweat)…
September 4th, 2009 at 2:08 pm
well ‘chill-
i would say many people over-estimated him
September 4th, 2009 at 2:14 pm
Onlooker; I have no doubt Obama knows the dissenting views; he just doesn’t agree with them because they are weakly argued and unconnected to the real world. Thank good he is not so clueless that he thinks that a sinking economy can provide the strong foundation from which to pay back the absurd levels of debt that we have racked up since Reagan’s failed trickle down experiment.
September 4th, 2009 at 2:14 pm
In my more optimistic moments, I dream of a resistance movement, a velvet revolution, crushing the banksters.
The paddy-wagons draw up to 85 Broad, and Blankfein and Viniar are led off in chains to work in a nice quarry.
Then I wake up, and LB’s cynical trading brain says we will all be screwed by a government captured by Wall St.
Let’s sit back and watch the movie. Got popcorn? My movie is: “The Hunt for Red October™, Part Deux”.
September 4th, 2009 at 2:19 pm
“I dream of a resistance movement, a velvet revolution, crushing the banksters.
The paddy-wagons draw up to 85 Broad, and Blankfein and Viniar are led off in chains to work in a nice quarry.”
that is indeed a great mental picture
dedude says-
“Thank good he is not so clueless that he thinks that a sinking economy can provide the strong foundation from which to pay back the absurd levels of debt that we have racked up since Reagan’s failed trickle down experiment.”
and so he does . . . what . . .exactly?
September 4th, 2009 at 2:20 pm
Riddle me this….
Which market is unchanged in the last 3 months?
September 4th, 2009 at 2:21 pm
@LB
Alas… The movie selection on this flight will be XANADU… Strap on your rollerskates!
September 4th, 2009 at 2:22 pm
@Andy
No riddles after 2:30PM on a Friday going into a holiday weekend!
I like to get started EARLY (if you know what I mean)…
September 4th, 2009 at 2:23 pm
But I’ll take a guess and say Shanghai…
September 4th, 2009 at 2:24 pm
If you guessed anything like the Euro, the Dollar Index, Ten Year Notes or crude oil….you’re correct….
It’s not wonder I feel like I’ve had a headache all summer….the most traded/liquid markets are have done JACK ALL since late May/early June….
September 4th, 2009 at 2:24 pm
Cvienne; OK you worry about grammar, and I worry about saving the world. That way neither of us will get in over his head ;-)
Is it flame the fibo’s Friday yet ?
I shall appoint you the filibuster fibo smearers SZAR – unless that makes me a dictator – or it fries the dictator-chip in your computer.
September 4th, 2009 at 2:26 pm
cv. Shanghai is a good guess…it’s barely up over the last few months….it’s been Mr. Toad’s wild ride….but yeah, DJ Shanghai index is pretty much UNCH as well….
September 4th, 2009 at 2:30 pm
@leftback: lol at the gold faucets line. Unfortunately the golden HELOC spigot has run dry. I wonder how many people have maxed-out their credit cards buying Krugerrands.
SPY has pushed GLD out of the top spot on the WSJ’s “selling on strength” list. chop-chop-chop-chop…
September 4th, 2009 at 2:31 pm
Ahab; he stimulates the economy out of the depression and out of the ressesion and back to a growth rate of 3+ BEFORE he begin lowering economic activity by paying down the debt.
September 4th, 2009 at 2:32 pm
@DeDude
LOL… pals in the end as always :-)
@ Andy T
I just pulled Shanghai off the top of my dome… Kind of like the QB in the pocket just “sensing” where his 3rd checkdown is…
But you’ve got me curious… What are you referring to?
September 4th, 2009 at 2:33 pm
@Andy
wait… I didn’t see your 2:24… sorry
September 4th, 2009 at 2:34 pm
I was going to say FXE.
September 4th, 2009 at 2:38 pm
@AT: Dunno. LB’s P/L?? :-)
September 4th, 2009 at 2:41 pm
@I-Man
No fair answering AFTER the verdict… That domain is reserved for Harry!
@DeDude
“I worry about saving the world”
—
My crazy philosophical spin is how IRONIC it is that HUMANS are worried about saving the PLANET… The planet has endured for something like 4 billion years… It’s going to take the sun blowing up into a RED GIANT to do in the planet…
On a timescale, human existence on the host planet encompasses the width of a molecule along something like a 100 mile long patch of highway…
September 4th, 2009 at 2:42 pm
@LB (2:38)
Quote of the DAY!… Although, CV’s has been equal… (Thank goodness for TLT)… Harry’s been raking it in though…
TBP posters… Weekend party at Harry’s!
September 4th, 2009 at 2:43 pm
@lb
“Don’t give up on Obama just yet, what if he actually has a whole new can of Whoop Ass ready for the banksters this Fall? Maybe he needed JOHNNY to recapitalize the banks this summer before opening the Whoop Ass?”
very astute. heres hoping the same. in fact, i’d be willing to bet that failure to do anything significant to reform wallstreet, O man can virtually seal his fate as a on-termer. and by significant, i mean punitive actions re the bankstas.
September 4th, 2009 at 2:43 pm
sorry dedude-
don’t see it that way- tax recepits will be down for years- 3% growth?- a blip in that direction possibly- but sustained growth- from what? from where? the projected deficit is 9 trillion over the next 10 years-
no way on this planet the debt gets paid down-
zero chance
September 4th, 2009 at 2:43 pm
lol.
I knew someone would call me out.
September 4th, 2009 at 2:45 pm
cvienne;
OK pals and that’s it!
I am not going to go as far as James Carville did with Mary Matalin :-)
September 4th, 2009 at 2:45 pm
@dedude
no flaming the fibos today….bubba’s taking a break and heading to the mn state fair for some food and fun.
September 4th, 2009 at 2:45 pm
lb: EXACTLY. Thus my headache all summer. I’ve got a stone cold FLAT p&l….and just looking at these various markets I can see why…It’s like this: Trade, make a little money. Trade, get stopped out and lose a little money, Rinse, repeat….
People like to say “traders love volatility.” That’s bullshit. Traders love a “trend.”
September 4th, 2009 at 2:48 pm
Range-trading the euro has been fun this summer (except for that little burst above 1.40).
September 4th, 2009 at 2:49 pm
@De Dude
“I am not going to go as far as James Carville did with Mary Matalin”
Just remember, in that MOVIE “Old School”, JC lost the debate to Will Ferrell…
September 4th, 2009 at 2:49 pm
When the market is rallying on Friday….and you really want to sell…just wait a little while…it usually gets better….and if you can trade after hours, even better yet….
September 4th, 2009 at 2:50 pm
cv says-
“My crazy philosophical spin is how IRONIC it is that HUMANS are worried about saving the PLANET”
couldn’t agree more-
as i have opined before- the earth will be here with or without us- when folks say saving the planet they mean to keep it exactly as they think it should be- like setting the dinner table- with a littel spot for flora here- a little spot for fauna there- nice and neat-
the earth- as an entity- doesn’t give a shit- and if we were to perish tomorrow- in a few million years it would be like we were never here at all- with plenty of new creatures evolving in our absence
September 4th, 2009 at 2:51 pm
@ cvienne
been watching your ZSL, it went flatline for the last hour, GLD same thing… hmmm
September 4th, 2009 at 2:52 pm
Volatility is great if you are doing day trading looking at the 15/60 minute chart. But otherwise I agree trading trends is better.
Feels like S&P is putting a H&S here. It’s building the right side of the shoulder.
September 4th, 2009 at 2:53 pm
i think b22 had the best strategy- definitely the easiest- with a strong probability of success-
go long @3:00 and sell @ market close-
now that’s a winner
September 4th, 2009 at 2:54 pm
@cvienne: I wouldn’t go so far as to predict that whatever Obama does will materially improve the situation, just that it will probably look good enough to get him get re-elected. Then again, I share your suspicion that he may finally be out of his league. Honestly, I gave up any real hope for change when he brought in that fool Summers. (You can probably imagine how my mom, THE MATH TEACHER, reacted to that move!)
September 4th, 2009 at 2:55 pm
@ Andy T
“Traders love a “trend.”
OK… well with an hour and 10 minutes left to go before closing up shop for the LD weekend, it’s time to start one…
Everyone that’s wearing a baseball cap right now, turn it inside out and put it on your head in a tilted fashion… That’s your RALLY CAP… (or, otherwise, you could just hold the bill in your hand and shake it around while humming at low pitch)…
That ought to be sure to get the UUP, up to over 23.32 on the close, and the S&P under 1008 (which would assure a market correction starting next week)…
Otherwise… more flat P/L’s for weeks on end to come…
September 4th, 2009 at 2:57 pm
@going broke
Re:ZSL
I posted earlier today… I wasn’t liking the “vibes”… I’d bought ZSL at $5.90 yesterday, and ended up bailing at $6.12 today… It was “beer money”…
I’m still holding some 2010 calls though…
September 4th, 2009 at 2:59 pm
@Seattle Chill
I actually NEGATE the swell of folks nowadays who are starting to say he’ll be a one termer…
Face it… He’s a popular guy… MOREOVER… Who TF does the GOP have that is any better?
September 4th, 2009 at 3:04 pm
Ahab; I don’t think it will be easy to get to 3%; but it will be impossible if we repay the government debt the only way GOP will allow – reducing government spending. A spending cut is a cut in GDP, regardless of whether it is private or government spending. The automatic repeal of the Bush taxcuts can do some good but remember that all those long-term projections are already based on that happening. If you are right and we cannot get up to 3%, then the debt will be payed back by inflation – simply because there will be no other way. Corporate and private debt is no big deal, you default and the resulting wealth redistribution will mostly hurt the investor class – so its no big deal for the economy.
September 4th, 2009 at 3:06 pm
@AT: I am up quite handily on the year, but only on three big trades: INDEX FUNDS purchased in March and sold in June-July, a few SMALL CAPS (UEC, GMO, WFT) sold in June/July, and finally my 5- and 10-year Treasuries, where the TREND has also been in my favor – I entered at a 3.75-3.98% yield on the 10-year, so I win as of today.
Everything else is flat. My trading book in equities this summer has been LB v. computers and the guys in the black helicopters, so it takes all my skill just to BREAK EVEN.
CV: Rally caps should be “inside out” for best effect, no?
September 4th, 2009 at 3:09 pm
I would love a “flat” score in golf this afternoon, but alas, I know that’s not going to happen.
September 4th, 2009 at 3:09 pm
@LB
That 3.75% – 3.98% yield range was such a sweet spot… I thought I’d died and gone to heaven when we got that 4 handle back in June…
I remember talking about it to you on that day!
September 4th, 2009 at 3:26 pm
You know…this BAC is actually looking bearish to me at this point…that big triangle it was in from May to Jul…the apex of that triangle finishes about now, so from a duration perspective, that rally looks due to finish. Also, there’s all sorts of chart resistance between 18-20 from last year….it’s noteworthy because this is the stock that’s been the leading pile of crap stock since March….
September 4th, 2009 at 3:30 pm
What’s interesting to me is that the VIX has almost completely retraced it’s lows from last Friday (but mostly all TODAY)…
So… all the FEAR, which started to generate on Monday due to the calendar changing to September, has now VANISHED in a few hours on a Friday before a holiday weekend with 70 degree temps and sunny????
September 4th, 2009 at 3:33 pm
You know the Street knows that all the turds, I mean impaired financial firms, have to issue more stock before the end of the year, and they also will have to be less creative with their earnings statements and accounting for EoY than they are for EoQ, so you will probably see some analyst downgrades – once the prop desks have sold them.
Trees don’t grow to the sky and the XLF is not going to 100; nor are C and BAC. H&S forming in the XLF.
September 4th, 2009 at 3:37 pm
It’s probably also worth noting in regard to BAC…that the 61.8% retrace (log scale) came in at 18.30 (closing basis). The absolute hi/lo 61.8% retrace is 20.8 (log scale.) Probably just coincidental. Has anyone tried shorting bank stocks? Is it legal? Is there stock available?
September 4th, 2009 at 3:38 pm
AT you UnAmerican bastard, you. How dare you?
September 4th, 2009 at 3:42 pm
XLF actually gives me some hope that a semblance of reality will return to the financials next week. Bearish candle, bearish indicators, bearish set-up on my trend chart…
USOs trend is down on my 13-34 ema chart.. DTO is trying to make a crossover today.. UUP is my headache.
September 4th, 2009 at 3:42 pm
That’s it for LB. If they pump to the close they can pump without me…take care, everyone and see you in the “Fall”.
September 4th, 2009 at 3:43 pm
@AT:
Available at thinkorswim for C, BAC, WFC, GS, MS.
September 4th, 2009 at 3:51 pm
@ cvienne at 2:59 pm
“Who TF does the GOP have that is any better?”
Now I”M not saying he’s any better, but my money for the likely 2012 GOP candidate is Huckabee, smooth talker and smart.
September 4th, 2009 at 3:51 pm
“Has anyone tried shorting bank stocks? Is it legal? Is there stock available?”
@Andy T: I am short $AIG and $COF. Stop loss set at 9day ema.
September 4th, 2009 at 3:51 pm
I-Man. I kick puppies around in my spare time as well.
September 4th, 2009 at 3:55 pm
“Huckabee, smooth talker and smart.”
But only for an Arkansan…. and thanks for the candles, Karen.
September 4th, 2009 at 3:58 pm
It’s time to play KICK THE CAN…
Selloff postponed for another week due to “clement” weather…
September 4th, 2009 at 3:59 pm
@ leftback at 3:55 pm
“Huckabee, smooth talker and smart.”
But only for an Arkansan….
I seem to remember a Rhodes scholar out of Arkansas in recent history, also a smooth talker
September 4th, 2009 at 4:00 pm
and speaking of candles… AIG! nice long red confirmation…
September 4th, 2009 at 4:04 pm
batmand0-
you may be onto someting w/ Huckabee- pretty likeable guy-
former pastor and quite religious though- but many in the GOP roll that way
September 4th, 2009 at 4:15 pm
@ call me ahab at 4:04 pm
“- pretty likeable guy-
former pastor and quite religious though- but many in the GOP roll that way”
EXACTLY, could appeal to all that great swathe of middle America looking for a “reasonable” voice but one with the “right” family values. He’ll be much better positioned in the 2012 primaries, with an organization in place from having run last time AND having done so well against Romney
September 4th, 2009 at 4:21 pm
you guys simply can not be serious about huckabee! i’ll leave because i’ll get ill otherwise.
September 4th, 2009 at 4:27 pm
batmand0
you may be onto something my friend-
most likely won’t find and clandestine affairs with a man or woman in his past to trip him up either
September 4th, 2009 at 4:59 pm
@ karen at 4:21 pm
“you guys simply can not be serious about huckabee! i’ll leave because i’ll get ill otherwise.”
Unfortunately, I’m all too serious as to his viabiality (as a GOP candidate). I also get ill just contemplating the possibility.
September 4th, 2009 at 5:04 pm
karen-
admit it- you dream about the Huckster- don’t you
September 4th, 2009 at 5:20 pm
He would follow the traditional pattern of the GOP presidents. Big smile guy you can drink a beer with – to get the joe 6 pack votes. No brain follower of right wing ideology – so Wall Street can get to run the show without any interference on behalf of the American people. Not only would it not be surprising if he becomes their candidate; it would not be surprising if he got elected, should the GOP succeed in sabotaging the recovery.
September 4th, 2009 at 5:30 pm
dedude-
pretty much it dedude-
although- i have to say- he is does believe in helping the downtrodden- that’s the Christian coming out in him- so he may be more of a populist than you suspect-
would be like a Republican version of Carter- so his values may trip him up
September 4th, 2009 at 5:42 pm
Good news is he would probably be the last GOP president, because it would be such a freking disaster that GOP would be gone for good after it was all over. The man still believes in trickle down after it has failed so spectacularly twice – so his heart may be with the poor but his brain is not up to the task of helping them. Worse than that, he thinks that good decisions are made by praying to God for the answer. The Cato Institute will install a speaker in his pillow and the good old U of S will be toast. If this country elect a man who is looking forward to the end of the world, it may just get what it asked for ;-)
September 4th, 2009 at 10:21 pm
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