The Big Picture - Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Technology, and Digital Media

Some interesting reading for a sleepy Tuesday afternoon:

• As Subprime Lending Crisis Unfolded, Watchdog Fed Didn’t Bother Barking (WaPo)

• How Bank of America Used Merrill Losses to Bully the Government (Law.com)

• FDIC Proposes Banks Prepay Deposit Fees Through 2012 (Bloomberg)

• A risky revival (FT)

• Earnings Revisions at a Two Year High (Bespoke)

• Dylan Ratigan: Why Would We Let Them Rig the Game?

• We’re Speaking Japanese Without Knowing It (John P. Hussman)

• THE LAST DAYS OF THE POLYMATH (intelligent life)

• How Do Innovators Think? (HBR)

• When the Sirens Sing, How to Avoid Giving in (Aleph Blog)

>

You see anything else worth perusing?

Via the WSJ:

The sculpture “What You see Might Not Be Real,” by Chen Wenling, was displayed at a Beijing gallery Sunday. The artwork is a critique of the global financial crisis, with the bull representing Wall Street and the man pinned to the wall representing Bernard Madoff.

>

click for bigger photo

(Ng Han Guan/Associated Press)

Three odd things about this Chinese sculpture: 1) It appears that Madoff has horns (wonder what THAT means) and 2) The bull appears to be badly flatulent.

Worst of all, it somehow implies that it was Wall Street captured or uncovered Madoff’s crimes — when in fact it was the Bear market that revealed his sins.

Now this is a badass looking 4 door saloon:
>

check out the split rear window, circa ’63 vette

Interior:

Check out the tail: 8 Pipes!

The 4 door gives it an odd profile:

Especially when compared to the Veyron:

photos via Classic Driver

>

Video

>

video hat tip: via World Car Fans

Add the President of the World Bank, Robert Zoellick to the calls over the past few days of a desire for a strong dollar as he is saying the US “can and should have a strong dollar.” The dollar has been benefiting for the past two days from the vocal support given to the US dollar following its recent leg lower. It will ultimately be action from the Fed and the US government that will ultimately determine the direction of the dollar rather than the hollow words of support. Jawboning though is always the easiest technique in the FX world to try to influence the direction of currencies.

Sunday, we discussed the ratio of unemployed to job openings hitting a record level. As noted in the NYT, the carnage has been widespread across many industries:

“Shrinking job opportunities have assailed virtually every industry this year. Since the end of 2008, job openings have diminished 47 percent in manufacturing, 37 percent in construction and 22 percent in retail. Even in education and health services — faster-growing areas in which many unemployed people have trained for new careers — job openings have dropped 21 percent this year. Despite the passage of a stimulus spending package aimed at shoring up state and local coffers, government job openings have diminished 17 percent this year.”

Today, I wanted to direct your attention to a visualization of that, showing where those unemployed persons came from, via Many Eyes. Perhaps this helps to explain why the number of openings remains relatively low: Firms are still reducing headcount (nice euphemism), and not yet hiring.

Many Eyes allows you to upload a data set, and create your own visualization. It is a very cool tool, from IBM’s Collaborative User Experience, part of the Watson Research Center.

You can change this to sector, company, etc. Scroll over the bubbles to see the exact numbers laid off in each firm:

>
click for interactive chart

>

Sources:
Layoffs in the United States and more
Many eyes, 3/6/09

http://manyeyes.alphaworks.ibm.com/manyeyes/visualizations/layoffs-in-the-united-states-and-m

U.S. Job Seekers Exceed Openings by Record Ratio
PETER S. GOODMAN
NYT, September 26, 2009

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/27/business/economy/27jobs.html

S&P/Case-Shiller data through July 2009 shows U.S. home prices are still negative, but slowing in their rate of descent.

Home prices increased a seasonally adjusted 1.2% in July from June, but fell 12.8% for the 10-City index and 13.3% for the 20-City Composite. The monthly improved readings were improved for sixth month, beginning in early 2009. The monthly gains were the most in almost four years.

>

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

>

More charts after the jump…

Read the rest of this entry »

Consumer Confidence at 53.1 is below the estimate of 57 and down from 54.5 in Aug. It is well off the low of 25.3 in Feb ’09 but the improvement seen is almost all in Expectations. Present Situations (how people feel today as opposed to their belief about the future) fell almost 3 pts to 22.7 and is less than 1 pt from the low in March which was the lowest since ’83. Expectations fell .5 point to 73.3 and but is well off the low of 27.3 seen in Feb. Those that said jobs were Plentiful fell to 3.4 from 4.3 and its the lowest since ’83. Those that said jobs were Hard to Get rose almost 3 pts to 47, just shy of the highest since ’92. Thus, the jobs picture is still tough. With the tax credit about to expire (maybe), those that plan to buy a home within 6 mo’s fell .7 to 2.3, just shy of its lowest level since ’82. Post Clunker’s, those than plan to buy a car within 6 mo’s fell almost 1 pt to the lowest since Mar ’09.

Airtime: Tues. Sept. 29 2009 | 8:50 AM ET

Art Cashin, head of floor operations at UBS, has the latest buzz from the NYSE.

The July S&P/Case-Shiller 20 city Home Price Index said prices fell 13.3% y/o/y, less than the expected decline of 14.2%. It is the smallest decline since Feb ’08 and it takes the index to the highest since Jan ’09 as it rose 1.61% m/o/m. At 144.23, it is down 30% from the all time high in July ’06. Seattle and Las Vegas are the only two cities of the 20 that saw a m/o/m drop. Every city still has y/o/y declines led by Las Vegas and Phoenix. This data is not seasonally adjusted and combining the seasonal strong time of the year with the $8,000 first time home tax credit and a moderation in the pace of foreclosures and we have continued stabilization in the home price data. With an expected pick up in foreclosures, continued compression in higher end home prices and the uncertain fate of the tax credit, we’ll see if the improvements in pricing can continue in the face of this. The worst of the financial crisis will end when home prices stop going down and I don’t believe we’ve seen the worst of the price declines in this cycle notwithstanding the recent government induced bounce.

Over at kottke.org, jason started a thread about the maximum Starbucks density and Starbucks center of gravity of Manhattan.

It seemed that 165 was the maximum # of SBUX found within 5 miles of your location.

On a lark, I punched in my street address — 535 5th — and BOOM! We have a new winner — there  are 215 Starbucks within 5 Miles of my office.