Comments on: Questions For Us All http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/09/questions-for-us-all/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Tue, 14 Feb 2012 13:58:51 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.5 By: beagle http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/09/questions-for-us-all/comment-page-1/#comment-213991 beagle Thu, 10 Sep 2009 15:38:32 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=37851#comment-213991 A person could think, "crude oil will not reach $100 if it snuffs out the recovery" ...using the part of their brain responsible for checks & balance. But what if the thought process that balances your finances every month is the wrong way to look at the current situation? Trying this on for size... "$100 oil would drive up costs for consumers sufficiently to snuff them out... THUS, IT WILL HAPPEN." If TPTB can pump oil until it snuffs the economy, they can win on the way up AND the way down. And a crash would be a lock, i.e. kitchen-sinkable. Too cynical? (Is there such a thing these days?) A person could think, “crude oil will not reach $100 if it snuffs out the recovery” …using the part of their brain responsible for checks & balance. But what if the thought process that balances your finances every month is the wrong way to look at the current situation?

Trying this on for size… “$100 oil would drive up costs for consumers sufficiently to snuff them out… THUS, IT WILL HAPPEN.” If TPTB can pump oil until it snuffs the economy, they can win on the way up AND the way down. And a crash would be a lock, i.e. kitchen-sinkable.

Too cynical? (Is there such a thing these days?)

]]> By: leftback http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/09/questions-for-us-all/comment-page-1/#comment-213963 leftback Thu, 10 Sep 2009 14:27:13 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=37851#comment-213963 LB has some dear friends at CS, but begs to differ on some of their conclusions. The "recoveryless recovery" (hat tip, Karen) has been driven by stocks rising on the back of a dollar carry trade, not by economic growth. Any such recovery would be self-limiting, because a sniff of $100 oil, perhaps a rise to just $80, would drive up costs for consumers sufficiently to snuff out the nascent rebound in spending. Welcome to the liquidity trap. The Bank of China is probably a bit closer to manufacturing conditions on the ground in the world's factory: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=asAIk7.42jvg LB has some dear friends at CS, but begs to differ on some of their conclusions. The “recoveryless recovery” (hat tip, Karen) has been driven by stocks rising on the back of a dollar carry trade, not by economic growth. Any such recovery would be self-limiting, because a sniff of $100 oil, perhaps a rise to just $80, would drive up costs for consumers sufficiently to snuff out the nascent rebound in spending. Welcome to the liquidity trap.

The Bank of China is probably a bit closer to manufacturing conditions on the ground in the world’s factory:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=asAIk7.42jvg

]]> By: filipj http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/09/questions-for-us-all/comment-page-1/#comment-213855 filipj Thu, 10 Sep 2009 04:39:06 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=37851#comment-213855 My comments were directed at the CS article, not Jack McHugh's piece. My comments were directed at the CS article, not Jack McHugh’s piece.

]]> By: filipj http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/09/questions-for-us-all/comment-page-1/#comment-213852 filipj Thu, 10 Sep 2009 04:36:44 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=37851#comment-213852 I liked this article and it brings up some excellent points for the bears to consider, of which I am one. As silly as this may sound, the article reads like it was written by a 10 year old. The message that the article attempts to convey is constantly undermined by poor grammatical structure. Maybe this was not edited properly, I don't know, but if this is supposed to be a research piece as opposed to a first attempt at writing an essay as opposed to facts, I'll take a pass. I liked this article and it brings up some excellent points for the bears to consider, of which I am one. As silly as this may sound, the article reads like it was written by a 10 year old. The message that the article attempts to convey is constantly undermined by poor grammatical structure. Maybe this was not edited properly, I don’t know, but if this is supposed to be a research piece as opposed to a first attempt at writing an essay as opposed to facts, I’ll take a pass.

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