Back in July, we discussed the “truest picture of excess labor supply” — the number of Unemployed per Job Openings. During the 2001 recession, the ratio of jobless people to openings was little more than double; in early 2009, job seekers outnumbered jobs four-to-one.

According to a front page Sunday NYT has article, that ratio has now hit an all time record:

“Job seekers now outnumber openings six to one, the worst ratio since the government began tracking open positions in 2000. According to the Labor Department’s latest numbers, from July, only 2.4 million full-time permanent jobs were open, with 14.5 million people officially unemployed.

And even though the pace of layoffs is slowing, many companies remain anxious about growth prospects in the months ahead, making them reluctant to add to their payrolls.

The dearth of jobs reflects the caution of many American businesses when no one knows what will emerge to propel the economy. With unemployment at 9.7 percent nationwide, the shortage of paychecks is both a cause and an effect of weak hiring.”

Nothing like having a 4 month jump on the big boys . . .


courtesy of NYT


The Truest Picture of Excess Labor Supply (July 1st, 2009)

Wage Deflation in Our Midst (July 1st, 2009)

U.S. Job Seekers Exceed Openings by Record Ratio
NYT, September 26, 2009

Category: Economy, Employment

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

108 Responses to “Read it here 1st: Truest Picture of Excess Labor Supply”

  1. franklin420d says:

    Your meaning of lecture and mine may be different, so we might be splting hairs.

    But if we have read the same story of stones and a glasshouse then I smile at your post :) is it the internet or the world wide web?

    The intent was not to make anyone think they should be anything other then who they are, but (from my perspective) TBP posters are some pretty heady peeps, but NONE of them have the answers for ANYTHING. But they are accommodating enuff (Yup that is how I spell it out of respect for a man I love….Not you though Bubba, you a man, but not sure I love you yet :) …… )
    to suffer many fools, myself included.

    So in all honesty I want to know what you mean by your 1:12am post. It is now 1:30ish am and we may be on different time zones, so if you do not respond to this that is fine. And if you are not able to, I will try a couple/three times to make reference to this post.

    Thanks I appreciate the dialogue.

  2. bubba says:


    i was actually referring to your 1:00 am post and noting all the typos — same kind of “who-the-fuck-cares” type of mistakes that everyone makes, only you (and i guess thor) seem to have a problem with. here’s but a sampling: “…even in bad times most would servive [survive???].

  3. bubba says:

    oh fukkin-ay, i ended one of my sentences above with a preposition — a with. damn, i just did it again. my humble apologies to every literate person on this board.

  4. franklin420d says:


    Thank you I do not always get the chance to review what I post (say) and your point is well taken.

    Most of what I type is in text editor that helps an idoit like myself look like they know how to spell. In this case I typed, pasted, then re-read. And really-really that word stuck out in my head, but I did NOT run it through spell check.

    Oh trust me bubba I am wrong more often (OK A LOT more offten) then not.

    But I try…..

    Thanks :)

  5. franklin420d says:


    Bubba you are so damn funny
    You referncened my 1 am post, but the orginal one was (Could check, not going to) way earlier.

    Boy this. in ALL honesty not to brag. I am a fairly good looking man, but when I dress in jeans and tee shirt I get the respect of a jeans and tee shirter would not….. NOT fair…. But life.

    When I dress in “style” I get treated with style……….. (NOT ME)

    I am not rich or poor, that is what people choice to beleive.

    It was techy’s comment that I wanted to reply to NOT what he said…..

    Thank you for clarifiying and then posting your mis. happs.

    No one cares about mis happs, it is the content that carries the meaning.

  6. godly says:

    As an extension of the worsening the Jobs scenario, at some point the US welfare state will be under danger.

    A few articles and my comments at:
    1. ECB on front foot: I have always maintained, the greatest winner from the curent crisis is not the US FED or capitalism but the ECB. The policies of ECB are increasingly being noted for their oversight and regulation while maintaining some degree of looseness. Very soon we will the the 4 major foreign reserve countries shift their assets into EURO bonds instead of US T-bonds. That is the day when the US will trulybe bankrupt. The currenc crisis is only a trailer of what is coming. I agree with Marc Faber when he says the current crisis is only a precursor to the BIG one coming.

    Read it here
    ECB on front foot Wait till they fully assert themselves and save the US FED just as they saved iceland.

    2. Employment Number analysis: Read it here
    3. Factory orders analysis: Read it here
    4. A an extensions of the worsening Jobs scenario, I believe at some point the US welfare state concept will be in danger Read it here

    Investing Contrarian

  7. dead hobo says:

    going broke Says:
    September 27th, 2009 at 7:55 pm

    From what I’ve read into this and facts from other sites… There’s going to be lots of people eating cold beans and rice for a very long time.

    FYI, I have two very excellent recipes for rice and beans. Everyone should eat this good. And I have a spicy baked brown rice recipe that redefines the concept of rice. My project now is homemade pizza that can compete on the same level. Really good crust is hard to make. It really depends on the yeast, temperature and time. But I love experimenting. When I go out to eat, it is often a disappointment now.

  8. franklin420d says:


    If you are here and read this (I doubt you will revist this post, just as it is doubtful I will be back after posting this)

    Bahahahahaha – You thought I was lecturing techy?

    No sir, I only said what I did to offer a veiw point of what he said at 1:59 pm “who cares about spelling and grammer.”

    It is not my job to correct his or anyone else’s spelling or point ou their grammitical errors -I was simply answering his question i.e. If he did not ask, I would not have replied.

    But it makes me smile that you went to all the trouble of posting my spelling flaws just for little O’me, thanks Bubba I did not know know you cared :)