In light of my earlier Bernanke post, my friend Scott sends this along:

>

September162009

via Bob Englehart

Category: Federal Reserve, Humor

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

64 Responses to “The Recession Is Over ?”

  1. Bruce in Tn says:

    http://online.barrons.com/article/SB125294123836008951.html?mod=BOL_hpp_dc

    Debtors’ Prison for the U.S. Economy

    “ANNIE LEIBOVITZ HAS WON A REPRIEVE, however temporary, from her debt woes. The celebrity photographer won’t lose her real estate and the rights to her work to satisfy a $24 million loan but will continue to work out a deal with the lender, Art Capital Group, which effectively is a pawn shop for rich artists.

    The very rich, it seems, aren’t so different from the rest of us in terms of getting into hock. But regular Americans have little choice but to hunker down, cut spending to pay down debt, just as they have done in every recession.

    This time, however, they won’t be returning to their free-spending ways as they did after every other downturn. Indeed, the deleveraging by consumers probably has just begun.”

    …Actually,what Bernanke should shout is,”Get back to spending!”….but that might be a little tougher nut to crack…

  2. Pat G. says:

    “Go back to work”? Easier said than done. I think the water could use a few sharks swimming around in it. Namely; jobs, assets, credit, income, etc… And Ben should be tossing dollars out of the chopper. But like I said earlier, he’s doing a fine job. Being somewhat able to determine how an individual is going to react, to a given set of circumstances, based on how they think….is priceless. In the end fundamentals and technicals aren’t much more than eye candy.

  3. sharkbait says:

    Yes, Recession (econ. contraction) likely over Q3-Q4, and starting now (2 consecutive quarters of +GDP growth). Stimulus $ is having desired effect. Equiv. of approx. 1 yr. US GDP ($12-14T), I think. While Wall St. is looking good (in nominal terms, for now), Main St. is not. Jobs (i.e.: good paying) needed for sustained recovery. 150k/mo. min. for pop. growth, just to stay even. 1% GDP growth will not create enough jobs. Double-dip R likely due to: Consumer retrenchment + deleveraging (spending is 70% of US econ. activity), high unemployment, housing unwind, and lackluster business capex (consumers not buying much). Now takes approx. 4-5$ of debt growth for 1$ of GDP growth. US debt increasing, and so the ratio is increasing. No V-shaped recovery here, IMHO due to aforementioned factors. Japanese-style decade ahead (“Lost Decade” scenario), unless debt is paid down/written off. Cannot induce consumer to borrow (maxed-out). Credit contraction must play out, either quickly (more painful, but better soln.), or slowly (worse for growth), buy creative accounting, and ginormous Fed (taxpayer) balance sheet. What’s left to stimulate spending? New green technologies will help, but how long until, how much growth?

  4. Bruce in Tn says:

    Very cogent thoughts, sharkbait. Thanks. Nice summary.

  5. aitrader says:

    I though ol’ Ben was supposed to throw money *out* of the helicopter!

  6. bergsten says:

    @PatG — who said it was “water”?

  7. cvienne says:

    @Pat G

    Well if you penciled in the image of Bernanke “throwing money out” of the helicopter, then the sketch would necessitate a bunch of iBank officers holding vacuum cleaners and sucking it up in the form of bonuses…

    Either that or THEY could be the “sharks” you refer to… (no offense or reference to you sharkbait)…

  8. leftback says:

    “Japanese-style decade ahead”

    wise words indeed, sharkbait-sensei. Domo arigato.

  9. CNBC Sucks says:

    Oh boy.

    Ritholtz, you just keep whipping these guys (and I do mean guys) into a frenzy. As I have stated repeatedly, you are a bigger page-view whore than even me. Pretty soon, Harry Wanker and franklin411 will show up, and then my peeps from the Ritholtz fantasy football league (REMINDER: some of you have proposed trades from me — these outstanding trades are OUTSTANDING! ) will start hurling invectives at them. Commissioner cvienne will even dip into his bag of desperate arguments and bring up how Israel will bomb Iran so you can kiss your recovery goodbye.

    Here’s the way I see it: This “recovery” is based on printed money, borrowing, and government spending. In fundamental economic terms whereby you produce real things and you consume based on what you are able to earn, the recovery is a total sham. For a recovery based on printed money, borrowing, and government spending, this recovery is pretty good though. It’s a good sham!

    If you are in your 40s or younger, the basic rule is this: At some point within your lifetime, the world will figure out a way to function without intrinsically worthless paper US dollars, and there will be a major repricing of currencies. I don’t mean within your narrow trading ranges. I mean the dollar will collapse. If you are in your 40s or younger, you (Harry Wanker) can talk nominal returns in the stock market all you want. You will never see a positive real return on US denominated equity markets between now and when you have to eat cans of cat food.

    But who the F really cares? That is a “whiles” yet! I don’t know why you brilliant guys keep debating this green shoots crap. The rest of America concerns itself with emo or indie, their next tattoos, Kate Gosselin’s new hairstyle, fantasy football, being fashion-forward, and licentious, morally corrupt, society-destroying but highly pleasurable FWB sex. I am not into emo or indie, tattoos, or Kate Gosselin, so you know what I will be doing. ;)

  10. cvienne says:

    @sharkbait

    A question… You summarized that nicely BTW… Now the question…

    Since you have the figures there in front of you, can you calculate the AMOUNT of stimulus spending and QE it cost to FILL THE GAP between what ‘might’ have been GDP, and the $12-$14 you refer to…

    …and you could go on to include ‘borrowing costs’ (say over a decade time), it cost to produce those 2Q’s of modest treadwater…

    I know there’s a lot of “if’s” & “but’s” there, but a ballpark figure would be interesting to hear…

    CV
    (also – to provide a constant – assume the ‘borrowing costs’ would never be re-paid, which I’m sure they won’t, and at, say a 4% interest rate)…

  11. rootless_cosmopolitan says:

    The recession is over and as of today, the fractional stock allocation in my portfolio is down to 12% (88% cash).

    rc

  12. Novemberrain says:

    Recession might be over but the housing market has certainly not revived. Foreclosures will continue to come as long as the job market does not get better. Also, borrowers who have Alt-A loan products will have those coming due in the next couple of years and many of the loans will not qualify for the current values resulting in their homes being foreclosed on. The result is that the market will be flooded with new supply, and without artificially increased demand, prices will continue to drop.

    Read More : http://www.housingnewslive.com

  13. HarryWanger says:

    sharkbait: You fell into two fatal traps that continue to paralyze investors:

    -”Consumer retrenchment + deleveraging”
    -”Cannot induce consumer to borrow (maxed-out)”

    Both of these are not true. I’m actually getting fed up with this being part of the bearish outlook for the economy. Yes, some people have retrenched but no nearly enough to make a big difference. Just refer to yesterday’s Retail numbers.

    And, yes you can induce the consumer to borrow – they just bought a ton of new cars. Houses are selling and have bottomed. They’re borrowing alright.

    So please, enough with the worn out bear argument regarding the dead consumer. He/she obviously is not.

  14. ToNYC says:

    Helicopter Ben did do his thing. He shoveled all of “his” 93 Billion out to save us from the Greater Depression..only GS embeds told him exactly a year ago to put it in all an AIG wrapper and send it GS, SoGen, Deutsche Bank, and Barclays or they would snap shut their ATMs and we’d dry up like ants in silica.
    Thank God he’s a student of the Great Depression. We can look forward to his next carreer at Princeton writing about the Great Contraction where all the apostrophe’s go to die.

  15. cvienne says:

    Now Wanger is schooling DK… :-)

  16. rootless_cosmopolitan says:

    HarryWangner,

    “And, yes you can induce the consumer to borrow – they just bought a ton of new cars. Houses are selling and have bottomed. They’re borrowing alright.”

    So much for the propaganda by the spin doctor. Hypotheses need to be tested using data. Here are the data:

    Title: Total Consumer Credit Outstanding
    Series ID: TOTALSL
    Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
    Release: G.19 Consumer Credit
    Seasonal Adjustment: Seasonally Adjusted
    Frequency: Monthly, End of Period
    Units: Billions of Dollars

    2008-01-31 2527.1
    2008-02-29 2536.3
    2008-03-31 2548.1
    2008-04-30 2559.3
    2008-05-31 2563.6
    2008-06-30 2574.3
    2008-07-31 2581.6
    2008-08-31 2576.1
    2008-09-30 2578.3
    2008-10-31 2575.0
    2008-11-30 2564.5
    2008-12-31 2559.1
    2009-01-31 2564.4
    2009-02-28 2551.4
    2009-03-31 2535.3
    2009-04-30 2518.0
    2009-05-31 2509.2
    2009-06-30 2493.6
    2009-07-31 2472.1
    (http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TOTALSL?cid=49)

    rc

  17. It looks like those folks need a bailout

  18. franklin420d says:

    CNBCS – Don’t know what FWB sex is, but if it is pleasurable where do I sign up?

    I am always willing to look at a (FFB) trade I don’t mind taking risks sometimes, but when Uncle Harry says the indices will go up another 20% or so, sounds pretty risk fee to me, so I sold the house, the wife and the kids and I am all in. Just think by this time next year I will be able to buy a 20% better house a 20% better wife and a 20% kid

  19. karen says:

    If the Recession is over why is the Fed concerned about this??

    Fed Reviewing Regional Bank Exposure To Comml Real Estate
    2:40 PM ET 9/16/09 | Dow Jones By Maya Jackson Randall

    WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)–The U.S. Federal Reserve is ramping up its scrutiny of regional banks’ exposure to the ailing commercial real estate market, according to a Fed source.

    The source Wednesday said the Federal Reserve is conducting more intense reviews of banks’ commercial real estate lending practices and comparing exposure among various banks.

    Earlier this year, the Fed and other regulators conducted “stress tests” on the nation’s 19 largest banks.

    Now, the Federal Reserve is taking a closer look at regional banks. The review comes as commercial real estate prices have declined significantly. Weakness in the market as well as the market for commercial mortgage-backed securities is seen as a serious threat to the economy’s recovery

  20. HarryWanger says:

    rootless: Thanks for posting that. Data show me that there hasn’t been much of a change at all over that time span, especially when one considers the “greatest recession since…” happened in there.

    Those numbers support my argument perfectly.

  21. rootless_cosmopolitan says:

    HarryWangner,

    you say that consumers aren’t borrowing less and when the numbers show that consumer credit is actually contracting then it supports your point. If you say so …

    rc

  22. cvienne says:

    @karen

    That’s so BB can first come up with a statement that says “It’s well contained”… then…

    know in advance, how far they’re going to have to “lower the bar”, when they start coming up with bogus “stress tests”, that reveal how sound they all are…

  23. jc says:

    BB did say “from a technical perspective” the drecession was over.

  24. jc says:

    The cartoon needs a yacht full of bankers cruising by – maybe the yacht name should be the US Largesse

  25. rootless_cosmopolitan says:

    rob,

    it just supports Harry’s point that there is no decrease in borrowing by the consumer and that there will be great times ahead in the economy and in the markets. Everything and its opposite will serve as proof for this believe/spin.

    rc

  26. HarryWanger says:

    rob, rootless: You’re missing the point. It’s only down a bit over 4% from last year. With all the spin and negativity from the doomers spouting out numbers like 17% is real unemployment, consumers are not spending/retrenching/not borrowing, wouldn’t we be seeing a much bigger decline YOY? We’re not. That’s the point. It’s been spun out of reality that story and Retail Sales should have shown you that yesterday.

  27. Thor says:

    HW – “U.S. Consumer Credit fell $21.6 billion in July representing an annual rate of decline of -10.4%, the steepest on record since WWII.” Are you really stupid enough to just look at that 4% and think “oh wow, that’s not a really big number”. Do you not see the obvious giant hole in your logic?

    Last – why do you continually bring up points that have nothing to do with the argument you are trying to make? “from the doomers spouting out numbers like 17% is real unemployment.”

    It’s bad enough no one here believes a word of what you have to say about any topic, it’s even worse that you have the debating skills of a 7th grader.

  28. cvienne says:

    @Thor

    I’m barely a 6th grader (with regards to my debating skills), and I think I’m holding out fine so far :-)

  29. Bruce in Tn says:

    Harry,

    You did maybe brag a few months ago about how Obama had brought an extra 40dollars/month into your paycheck, did you?

    …just wondering…

  30. HarryWanger says:

    Thor: Yes, you do have poor debating skills. What are we looking at here? July numbers? YOY credit? What? Because YOY we’re talking 4%.

    Now in regards to the unemployment, I mentioned it because it is completely relevant. Doomers aside, the Unemployment rate may reach 10% before turning. Bearing that in mind, wouldn’t it hold true that YOY credit would have contracted significantly? It didn’t. Why? As has been pointed out several times by many economists, the consumer that actually spends money and had more buying power, isn’t the one losing his/her job.

    That’s my whole point about the consumer not spending b.s. We SAW it yesterday in the Retail number. The people who spend money and make the needle move, so to speak, are still doing that for the most part. Think about it. Now with your best 7th grade debate skills, try to assemble something that makes sense.

  31. the Brits have a good understanding of ‘gentlemen’ like HarryWanger, he should, just, trade his ‘g’ for a ‘k’ to make it obvious, to all..
    ~~
    more importantly, “Fraud and corruption are being exposed at the highest levels of our financial markets. The integrity of our so called “free” markets has been badly damaged and rightly so. The cover up, fraud and deceit have reached biblical proportions.

    When the government decides to intervene on behalf of certain market participants and ignores its own role in the previous bubble and its subsequent collapse, a dangerous precedent is set that destroys trust. When trust breaks down, paper assets become worth less in the eyes of those with money to invest and people turn to reliable asset classes …”
    http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/brochert/2009/0914.html
    “…Some might believe that we have reached a culmination of sorts for the financial crisis that began in 2008 and that from here things are going to get better. This study draws the opposite conclusion. The bail, rescue and print formula being employed by the federal government and central bank today is simply a continuation of policies that brought about the crisis in the first place. Only now, as you are about to read, they are being conducted on a far grander scale. The repercussions, I might add, are likely to arrive on a far grander scale as well…”
    http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/kosares/2009/0916.html

  32. Bruce in Tn says:

    Harry,

    I suppose the high end houses undergoing foreclosure fit right into your neat theory, Harry?

    Your mom said there was a reason you look like the neighbors….

  33. rootless_cosmopolitan says:

    HarryWangner,

    This reminds me of someone who is in the early phase of falling of a mountain and who says after a few meters, “Why are the others screaming so much? Nothing serious has been going on so far.”

    You apparently think that any credit market contraction is only a temporary dip, 375% total debt to GDP ratio doesn’t matter, 300% private debt to GDP doesn’t matter, and that the expansion of debt relative to GDP, i.e., debt to income generated in the economy, can go on forever, that there aren’t any limits to the debt ponzi scheme that has been fueling capitalism for a few decades now.

    rc

  34. rootless_cosmopolitan says:

    HarryWangner,

    Retail sales are increasing because governments worldwide have been engaging in unprecedented deficit spending to stimulate economies. Government’s debt inflation has overcompensated private debt deflation so far. All the trillions of stimulus spending worldwide have to show up somewhere.

    rc

  35. Thor says:

    Harry – many of us are still waiting for you to tell us who you are on some of the other boards so we can back test all your predictions

  36. cvienne says:

    @rc

    “All the trillions of stimulus spending worldwide have to show up somewhere.”

    Just like all those “billions” that came out of the HOUSING ATM withdrawl showed up between 2003-2007…

    In a couple of years, we’ll be in the Q’s (quadrillions)… that ought to make those pictures that show 11 trillion (of dollars) making the Empire state building look like SPUD WEBB vs. SHAQ, stretch out of the atmosphere…

    While we’re at it…let’s tack on a Healthcare bill… Whaddaya say, Obama? Just keep writing checks that will bounce… ain’t that how dey do it?

  37. HarryWanger says:

    Thor: Go to MarketWatch. They know Harry very well. Made a lot of people a lot of money there. Same with Yahoo board for AAPL made good money there as well.

  38. dss says:

    @Harrywanger:

    So I guess that the ones who have blocked you at the Yahoo AAPL boards must be just the ones who didn’t follow your sage advice? You seem to be persona-non-grata there. They seem to be taunting you for some reason, dissing you. You wanna explain what that is all about?

    From the AAPL message board at Yahoo.

    harrywanger dip dip 4-Jun-09 03:36 pm

    harrywanger=Larry Kudlow 3-Jun-09 07:18 am

    Re: A sell off on no volume means nothing. 22-May-09 02:56 pm
    So sad you’re not man enough to say so using your own ID harrywanger.
    what kind of idiot hides behind a fake ID to post on a message board.
    yap yap no nothing

    HARRYWANGER has been added to your IGNORE list 22-May-09 01:55 pm
    Incessant pumping does not benefit this board.

    He also created a FAKE ID similar to mine, you can ignore that too.

    I have put both on IGNORE and the board is a lot clearer.

    I wish Yahoo had board moderators.

    Re: Applites are such stupid cult members 17-Feb-09 07:21 pm
    HARRYWANGER…….

    WHY DON’T YOU STICK YOUR LAST NAME UP YOUR HARRY*ASS

    Seems you are a bit unpopular over there.

    Too bad we do not have ignore here as too many people respond to your assinine posts.

    And dare to equate yourself with BR?

    So you left that message board and now you come here to pollute this one. Sad, really. Pathetic.

  39. techy says:

    so bears are betting on: FED wont be able to outprint deflation.

    and bulls are betting on the consumer…..really??

    this recovery is based on “print all you can” by the FED…and they seems to have successfully fought the deflationary forces to some extent by transferring trillions from taxpayers to banks and by spending close to a trillion.

    i wont bet on any direction…..jos losses have slowed down…but what about the second derivative due to the prolonged high unemployment??

    at the same time….inflation will remain tamed as long as consumer does not have much income growth….so FED does have a lot of room to continue the printing press till they literally take everyone on their payroll.

    but again i am not betting on anything…this crazy market can go up another 40% with not much profit improvement(and shorts getting squeezed).

    at the same time, it can go down 50% if reality comes out in form of data.

    i have a hunch though that the administration has given warning to big money to not send the market down by shorting too much….big money is allowed to make money by creating volatility….but no more big selloffs.

    and since 80% of market is using long only mutual funds/pension funds…it has to automatically go up with no bad news.

  40. Onlooker from Troy says:

    dss

    So right. The discipline to ignore would do much to help clean up this blog before it really goes down hill.

  41. dss says:

    To much time is being devoted to calling wanger a wanger, or a lying sack of shit. Let’s ignore the bastard and he will go away like a shunned cockroach.

    There are more goodies about Wanger on the Yahoo boards if anyone cares to peruse. And from what I can see, he ain’t so popular on his beloved Market Watch, either.

    Once an insecure attention seeking moron, always an insecure attention seeking moron. He gets his jollies by seeing everyone respond to him, and I have just added to the pile. Ewww.

    We need an ignore button.

  42. techy says:

    cvienne …you sound like a hopeless partisan hack…

    debt went up from 0.9 trillion in 1980 to 10 trillion in 2008, thats 10 times growth with standard of living getting better.

    what makes you think if it goes up from 10 trillion to 20 trillion, it will cause too much damage??

    how does it matter so much as long as we can print and pay??

    BTW notice that it was doubled by one of the greatest presidents?? why not let obama double it too so that we can climb out of the hell hole created by previous administration??

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_public_debt

    1980 909.0 33.3
    1990 3,206.3 55.9
    2000 5,628.7 58.0
    2001 5,769.9 57.4
    2002 6,198.4 59.7
    2003 6,760.0 62.5
    2004 7,354.7 64.0
    2005 7,905.3 64.6
    2006 8,451.4 64.9
    2007 8,950.7 65.5
    2008 9,985.8 70.2

  43. HarryWanger says:

    dss, Onlooker: HarryWanger and “the firm” , if you bothered to look into it, made a substantial amount of money for those willing to listen. Problem, like here, is the perma bears and deniers failed to let go of their silly notions that everything would collapse. Sound familiar? Those who listened made a lot of money, those who didn’t were bitter.

    Same with AAPL, I laid out every single trade there but, once again, those who chose to ignore the advice didn’t want to hear that the stock would continue upwards – to 200 by EOY as I stated continuously.

    So you can either follow the idiots who ignore the technicals and fundamentals, like most posters here and lose or not make a cent or you can listen to rational posts from people like me and reap substantial financial gain. Seems like a no brainer but I’ve been through it post after post and I suspect you will fall into the doomer camp and continue griping about the market moving higher.

    Seems rather silly when you look at it objectively, no?

  44. HarryWanger says:

    dss: yes the “buy my head in the sand, I don’t want to listen to anything that opposes my stupid viewpoint” ignore button. Yep makes lots of sense. You keep on losing money. I keep putting my calls out here and guess what? Just like MarketWatch, just like AAPL, I’ve been dead on. My calls are out in the open, choose to ignore them if you so desire but I guarantee others are profiting from it.

  45. HarryWanger says:

    Techy: To add to you post, as noted perma bear Bill Fleckenstein now admits, there’s going to be a lot of great numbers coming out economically throughout the end of this year. Each one of those reports will be met with more buying.

    This is Econ 101. You have too much inventory, you sell it off/get rid of it. Well, at some point you have to restock. And when business is doing it at essentially the same time, of course the economy is going to grow rapidly. Of course the stock markets are going to soar. This is as easy as it gets right now. Has been since the government backed everything up with big bucks back in the spring. Hell, even Obama told you to buy stocks.

    Yet still, in the face of the Economics 101 from freshman year of college pointing toward a huge rally, doomers insisted it wouldn’t/isn’t happening. Too bad. You’ve missed out on a lot.

  46. cvienne says:

    @techy

    “what makes you think if it goes up from 10 trillion to 20 trillion, it will cause too much damage??

    how does it matter so much as long as we can print and pay??”

    If you have read this blog long enough you would realize you’re IN ERROR by labeling me as a “partisan hack”… A “hack” maybe, but a “partisan hack”, no…

    I’ve expressed many times my displeasure for both Dem & GOP policies… I simply don’t like SPENDING…

    On the other hand, you seem to think spending will get us out… Let’s leave it at that…

  47. emmanuel117 says:

    Good catch, dss. I’m guessing Harry didn’t think no one would check.

  48. cvienne says:

    @BR

    By the way BR… This is a nice blog…

    There are a lot of people on here who may be ‘bearish’ on the economic outlook, but in spite of what seems to be a ‘farcical’ engineering of the economy by the government and bankers, we try to keep a straight face, watch the technicals, and WAIT… and WAIT… & WAIT…

    in the midst, we even try to come out with some ‘snark’, & some ‘anecdotes’ (you know – things to pinch ourselves to assure that we’re not actually living in some conjured up dreamland)…

    the reward?

    Harry Wanger & techy…

    cvienne is over and out for awhile… (he’ll tend to FF for awhile).

    See you all on the flipside!

  49. techy says:

    cvienne ..

    so you are not partisan…really…i have been seeing your anti obama administration since barely they had a month to take care of all the shit the douche bag left.

    if not for the 35% of the stupid religious delusional people of this country….we would be debating real issues not rhetorics…

    to understand my pain you have to live where i am, alabama and now louisiana……they just give away their vote to anyone who says pro-life, anti-gay or whatever…these idiots dont have enough brain to think that they are destroying the future of their kids…

  50. HarryWanger says:

    emmanuel: Put your head in the sand with the rest of them. Of course the posts he put up there are gibberish. Of course, he didn’t bother to put any of my posts up with nothing but factual buy recommendations. Nope. You doomer/permabear types all stick together it seems. At least the sand is dark and cool. You’ll sleep well there as the world passes you by.

    Let’s see been saying buy AAPL since low 100′s. Been saying buy QID, DDM, SSO, SPY, DIA since April. Of course, those have all been wrong. How stupid/ignorant can people be and continue to be? We have 20% (40% on Ultras) throughout the EOY. This is EASY MONEY. But, the sand is cool and dark and comfy, so just stay there with the rest of the gang.

  51. HarryWanger says:

    techy: Thanks for calling cvienne out on that. You’ll run into alot of that here. I refer to the Failure Caucus often. Seems most here have bought into that hook line and sinker.

    Notice he’s “over and out for awhile”? Head in the sand syndrome. They’re stuck on their doom and gloom and fail to look past that. Hell, they don’t even want to. Nope, they’d rather put their heads in the dark, cool sand and ignore reality.

  52. CNBC Sucks says:

    Anymore for anymore?

    I am sticking around the Ritholtz blog while I wait for Travelin’ Jeff and ahab to make up their minds about my FF trades.

    I can vouch that cvienne is over and out adding and dropping on the waiver wire. Lee Evans for Ahmad Bradshaw?

  53. emmanuel117 says:

    Harry, you haven’t presented much evidence to dispute dss’s claims. All I’m seeing from you is ad-hominem, which I guess is your way of conceding dss’s point.

  54. call me ahab says:

    techy-

    cvienne is libertarian minded – as are many here- and really knows the technicals- that he is calling out Obama- well- he is the one in charge-

    as i have said repeatedly Obama has continued many of the same policies of Bush and has not reflected the change people were hoping for-

    so if someone complains about what the USG is doing- who should they complain about- the person in power and who can effect change and has not- or the schmoe out of power who can effect no change at all-

    “can’t we all just get along” – Rodney King

    harry- throw up some technicals and support your views- don’t be a Pollyanna know it all- only creates animosity- unless of course that is what you are looking for-

    in that case you are a troll and will be villified

  55. HarryWanger says:

    ahab: I consistently “throw up technicals”. I get asked this constantly and I always do. Here’s a start, go to Bloomberg Economic Calendar and look at every report over the past three/four months. Really, look at them, go to the source. There’s your fundamental case. Also, Econ 101, we have to put up growth numbers that will be great just because inventories have to rebuild. And, it’s all happening at the same time with all businesses.

    Technically, pull up any chart. There’s a vacuum there to 10,300-10,500 Dow. That will easily be filled. Nothing in the way. Same with SPX. COMP is in its own world. It’s in a real rally, go-go phase right now. No telling how high that will go. Point is, they’re all going up at least 20% (40% on the ultras). What more do you want me to say??

  56. call me ahab says:

    alright CNBC sux-

    i sent you an answer on the trade-

    check your email

  57. call me ahab says:

    i guess harry – it all comes to presentation- why do you care so much if no-one buys what you’re selling? present your observations-

    put a “might happen”, “could happen”, “likely to happen”, “probably happen”-

    anything but “will happen”-

    that is where you send people over the edge-

    remember- harry you are on a mostly bearish blog- does not mean anyone is short at this time- and many could be long- but almost all here think this country has many structural issues in the economy and have ideas about what this country should be and could be- not what it was -

    we don’t buy the credit and spend idea of prosperity-

    there is more to life than shopping bags harry

  58. CNBC Sucks says:

    Thanks, ahab. I will revisit that trade with you at a more opportune time. I don’t blame you for not taking it during this specific week.

    ahab is correct about cvienne. I was going to add earlier that there are two kinds of Libertarians — (a) dreamers / idealists and (b) Republican shills and hacks in sheep’s clothing. The guys on this blog who fit in (a) argue from the points of view of the Austrian school; they include Mark E. Hoffer and, to a much more mellow (mellow because of his marijuana crops in WV) and implied extent, cvienne. ahab himself calls his FF team “Austrians”, but von Mises and Hayek would not approve of him starting Cedric Benson.

    People like techy are sick of hearing the intellectual arguments of (a) but instead getting governments run by (b), who preach small government yet do nothing other than abuse the public sector and public resources to fatten the military-industrial complex and favored GOP industries such as oil, nuclear, Wall Street, health insurance, yada yada yada. Examples of (b) are 97% of CNBC staff and guests.

    I personally do not trust Libertarians, because I saw the TV miniseries “V” in the early 1980s and it freaked me out when the hot chick was really an alien maneating lizard under human skin. I can’t tell who is truly an (a) as opposed to a (b). However, if someone could magically trim ALL our spending — including 70% – 90% of defense — that would probably be our best hope.

    That said, I am voting for Democrats forevermore because the Republicans will get us into a nuclear war.

  59. call me ahab says:

    CNBC sux-

    you crack me up- my FF team the Austrians- just sounded cool- i am not in hoffer’s caliber by any stretch- he has libertarianism down cold :-) !!!

    and i am a supporter of universal SINGLE PAYER health care- not the drivel they are kicking around now- i am certain that would get me kicked out of most libertarian circles

  60. dss says:

    @harrywanger

    Where you lose credibility in the extreme is that you assume that you and only you have the secret, that you and only you are making money, and everyone else is losing money. People are making money, they just don’t have a need to brag about it 100 times a day, like you do. Small penis, perhaps?

    Your arrogance is only exceeded by your ignorance and need for attention.

    The people on the Yahoo boards got tired of your shit and put the ignore on you. Plenty of good stuff there folks if anyone wants to look it up.

    Your delusions of grandeur are quite funny, actually. Too bad there is not an ignore button, as you would lose your audience.

  61. beaufou says:

    Cvienne is out because of drunken sailors?

    They’ll fall off the boat soon.

  62. beaufou says:

    Here’s a floater for them:
    http://usdebtclock.org/

  63. batmando says:

    believe i’ll just go over and sit with karen and have a glass of a nice red until the the flames subside…,
    though i must say, cvienne, this, “ain’t that how dey do it?” was unworthy and more than a bit off-putting