S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
The July S&P/Case-Shiller 20 city Home Price Index said prices fell 13.3% y/o/y, less than the expected decline of 14.2%. It is the smallest decline since Feb ‘08 and it takes the index to the highest since Jan ‘09 as it rose 1.61% m/o/m. At 144.23, it is down 30% from the all time high in July ‘06. Seattle and Las Vegas are the only two cities of the 20 that saw a m/o/m drop. Every city still has y/o/y declines led by Las Vegas and Phoenix. This data is not seasonally adjusted and combining the seasonal strong time of the year with the $8,000 first time home tax credit and a moderation in the pace of foreclosures and we have continued stabilization in the home price data. With an expected pick up in foreclosures, continued compression in higher end home prices and the uncertain fate of the tax credit, we’ll see if the improvements in pricing can continue in the face of this. The worst of the financial crisis will end when home prices stop going down and I don’t believe we’ve seen the worst of the price declines in this cycle notwithstanding the recent government induced bounce.
September 29th, 2009 at 10:57 am
“Every city still has y/o/y declines led by Las Vegas and Phoenix. This data is not seasonally adjusted”
Why is it important that this y/o/y data is not seasonally adjusted?
September 29th, 2009 at 11:40 am
“Why is it important that this y/o/y data is not seasonally adjusted?”
Sales go up every summer and drop in the winter. Look at the same month the previous year on the Case/Shiller. It comes out in Excel on the S&P site.
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.topic/indices_csmahp/0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,4,0,0,0,0,0.html
September 29th, 2009 at 2:07 pm
[...] prices in the U.S., as measured by the S&P Case-Shiller home price indexes, rose in July over the previous month, as 18 of the 20 metropolitan areas comprising the benchmark saw saw a [...]
September 29th, 2009 at 2:39 pm
[...] prices in the U.S., as measured by the S&P Case-Shiller home price indexes, rose in July over the previous month, as 18 of the 20 metropolitan areas comprising the benchmark saw saw a [...]
September 29th, 2009 at 2:45 pm
“Sales go up every summer”
Yeah, but it’s y/o/y. I would think if it’s summer now then it was summer a year ago, too…
I looked at some of the data points on the S&P site and there isn’t much difference between the SA and NSA data to start with. The difference in y/o/y seems to be about zero.
September 29th, 2009 at 2:45 pm
Housing boosters have forecast turnarounds repeatedly since the market peaked in 2006, only to be proven wrong by plunging prices. And skeptics say they’re wrong again now. They argue that a deeply indebted consumer, a weak job market, expiring incentives and rising foreclosures spell a quick end to any housing rebound.
Read more.
http://www.housingnewslive.com/us-housing-news-articles.php
September 29th, 2009 at 3:20 pm
[...] prices in the U.S., as measured by the S&P Case-Shiller home price indexes, rose in July over the previous month, as 18 of the 20 metropolitan areas comprising the benchmark saw saw a [...]
September 29th, 2009 at 4:13 pm
A housing turnaround does not commence with a picture like this:
1.45
1.57
1.72
1.89
2.13
2.42
2.77
2.96
3.15
3.42
3.68
3.94
4.17
These are the monthly ’serious’ delinquency rates (7/08-7/09) reported this morning by FNMA which got little press play. The pipeline to foreclosure is still growing in prime land. So foreclosure/short sale pressure is going to remain for some time. The numbers look even worse for ‘credit enhanced’ borrowers, the folks required to obtain PMI because they possess insufficient funds for a standard down payment.
3.97
4.26
4.68
5.12
5.69
6.42
7.24
7.7
8.17
8.79
9.6
10.25
10.83
Oh, yeah, real stability can be read into these numbers. And the option arm bomb has not even remotely detonated yet.