I will be winging back from Chicago as the Fed releases their statement, but I am going to go out on a limb and assume they will say something to the effect of this:
>
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof. —John Kenneth Galbraith
Retail Sales in Jan rose .4% headline m/o/m, .7% ex auto's, .6% ex auto's and gasoline and .7% at the core. The headline figure was less than expected while the rest were slightly better. But, with respect to non headline sales, because Dec figures were revised lower, taking the two months together were about in line with forecasts overall. Sales rose in electronics, building materials, food/beverages, clothing, sporting goods, dept stores and restaurant/bars and fell interestingly for online retailers, health/personal care, furniture and motor vehicle/parts. Bottom line, headline sales were below expectations due to the greater than expected fall m/o/m...
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September 23rd, 2009 at 1:22 pm
You arms will be sore for days.
September 23rd, 2009 at 1:28 pm
the fed will say the following-
“most regions of the country have seen some improvement but unemployment remains a problem”
I would love them to put Wall Street on notice that the current policy is not forvever and that the Fed WILL tighten in the near future-
otherwise those heartless bastards will run the markets up- creating yet another monster bubble- while the Fed sits idly by-
great way to run an economy
September 23rd, 2009 at 1:30 pm
The unemployed don’t matter, Barry. They don’t have money to spend (once the credit card limits are reached). You know that. Cognitive dissonance reigns supreme in BananAmerica.
September 23rd, 2009 at 1:48 pm
The FED will continue to pump the market domestically and internationally until everyone’s wealth is seemingly back to where it was. It’s the only asset class that is responding and it is liquid enough to quickly restore faith. The Crisis of Confidence will continue until it is so…
September 23rd, 2009 at 1:56 pm
OK…recession “over”…I drink deeply from the kool-aid pitcher…
and probably the debt problem we have is getting better too, ain’t it….?
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB125327407814422895.html
Wealth Gains Don’t Make a Dent in Debt
“Despite the improvement in homeowners’ equity share in real estate in the aggregate in the second quarter, we still know many homeowners are severely ‘underwater’ with large negative equity positions,” SMR observes. “As of June, First American CoreLogic estimated that nearly a third of all mortgaged properties were in a negative equity position.”
And although Americans plowed huge sums into repaying their credit cards and other loans, just as all the personal-finance gurus on television preach, they barely made a dent in their debt.”
Not to worry…
September 23rd, 2009 at 2:02 pm
“It’s the only asset class that is responding”
Not true, look at gold and silver.
September 23rd, 2009 at 2:21 pm
There is no reason to fight this market.
FOMC plans to keep the rate exceptionally low for extended time.
Market rallies as expected.
September 23rd, 2009 at 2:22 pm
Good report from Fed. Looks like the road to 11,500+ on Dow is now a certainty.
September 23rd, 2009 at 2:29 pm
Two economies. One economy is financial (doing GREAT!)
The other is productive. (Crushed. No embellishment required.)
Unfortunately, the establishment and the news media focuses on finance while finance relies absolutely on the productive economy. Production is constrained by oil prices which reflect depletion rates relative to consumption. With production failing to earn enough in real terms to service or retire finance’s debt creation the entire matrix is doomed to fail. Period.
Enjoy the bull market while it lasts.
September 23rd, 2009 at 2:31 pm
“It is also kept its massive financial support for the economy in place, with no hint about when it plans to withdraw that underpinning. ”
i wouldn’t consider that a bullish sign- obviously zero faith that the economy will make it w/o indefinite government life support-
wanger-
go fuck yourself
September 23rd, 2009 at 2:37 pm
I’m starting to agree with Harry that the Dow could hit 11,500. The problem is that will it stay well above that level for a prolonged period of time? Is a pattern of reflate bubble, crash, reflate bubble, crash really productive for us as a whole? Clearly, policymakers do not make decisions with the well being of the general population in mind…
HCF
September 23rd, 2009 at 2:38 pm
Agree w/Ahab..a lot of hand holding needed to keep the ship from sinking. Until the reversal happens I don’t want to trade against the trend. This market is insane.
September 23rd, 2009 at 2:40 pm
OT: This is a very amusing article, probably much more interesting than anything the Fed has to say and mush more valid….
Nadir Of Western Civilization To Be Reached This Friday At 3:32 P.M.
SEPTEMBER 22, 2009 | ISSUE 45•39
http://www.theonion.com/content/news/nadir_of_western_civilization_to?utm_source=a-section
“We’ve been charting this cultural descent for generations now, from the advent of New Wave music, to the rise of scientific creationism, right through to the trampling death of several Wal-Mart greeters on the morning after Thanksgiving. Everything has been leading up to this Friday.”
Best regards,
Econolicious
September 23rd, 2009 at 2:44 pm
What a shocker. Rates to stay low for an “extended period of time”. And this suprised exactly whom?
September 23rd, 2009 at 2:45 pm
@ahab: Very succinct. LOL……..
September 23rd, 2009 at 2:52 pm
mannwich-
as i posted earlier- Wall Street needs to be put on notice that the current policy is not forvever and that the Fed will tighten in the near future-
another massive bubble being created w/ no end in sight- while the Fed sits on its hands- unless the Fed believes values need to be restored to 9/2007 highs- whch maybe they do- who knows-
i am beyond disgusted with Bernanke- no way to run an economy- where is the real wealth being generated?
nowhere
September 23rd, 2009 at 2:56 pm
@ahab: But you assume the Fed doesn’t WANT to create another bubble. They know that’s the only way out of this mess in the short term, so they’ll just do it and clean up after this one down the road. Of course, someday the reckoning will be so big, that won’t be possible, but by then the elites will already have prepared for that outcome, so they won’t care.
September 23rd, 2009 at 2:57 pm
Well, this hedgie is Focht, anyway:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a0_WvxpRK7eQ
Head fake on the dollar? Commodities not advancing. Sell the news?
September 23rd, 2009 at 2:59 pm
what’s to prevent the fed from swelling its balance sheet to $3 trillion, or $4 trillion? the beauty of being able to create money out of thin air gives you the ultimate backstop to failed policies. it should surprise no one here that the pull out all stops mentality to prevent even normal cyclical patterns has retarded the very foundations in which the efficiency of markets has its foundations. using historical TA is near worthless given this new paradigm. if you swim in today’s waters suum cuique.
September 23rd, 2009 at 3:01 pm
As long as Fed continues with their current policy, Dollar will continue to go lower. No end in sight until they finish blowing another bubble.
September 23rd, 2009 at 3:03 pm
Ahab – Buddy! I’ve been having a shitty morning and your 2:31 post made me laugh. I owe you ;-)
September 23rd, 2009 at 3:03 pm
Exactly how I see..Rikky
September 23rd, 2009 at 3:09 pm
I love how the Fed proclaims that things are getting better, but needs easy money, yet inflation is nowhere to be seen. Isn’t this the Goldilocks scenario that Sir Larry Kudlow always screams about? Dow 36,000, here we come baby! Now, I’m gonna go to the bathroom to snort another line with the perma-bulls…
HCF
September 23rd, 2009 at 3:16 pm
“Good report from Fed. Looks like the road to 11,500+ on Dow is now a certainty.”
Then, I hope your long as hell….I recommend buying a bunch of calls and maybe some stocks on heavy margin with that view…..
September 23rd, 2009 at 3:18 pm
Rikky: Right on! Don’t fight the Fed, especially when the economy is entering a mini boom phase as we are beginning to see.
September 23rd, 2009 at 3:18 pm
SELL EM LLOYD…. careful you don’t strangle yourself with your own leverage, Harry.
September 23rd, 2009 at 3:22 pm
@Harry:
It paid VERY well to fight the Fed for the 1.5 years beginning in October 2007….
HCF
September 23rd, 2009 at 3:23 pm
Buy that dip, Wankster.
September 23rd, 2009 at 3:26 pm
Mannwich: No need to buy right now – there is no dip. Indices are all green still. I won’t add until any shallow pullbacks, which I’ve been saying would happen, of around 2-4%.
September 23rd, 2009 at 3:28 pm
“Hairy” Wanger, a.k.a Dr. Hai Wang, tries to play the role of a unsophisticated investor and inept comment-smith by nauseating us with his dimwitted, seemingly drug induced, bullishness. But this rubbish is all just part of a carefully constructed charade. He doesn’t fool any of us, however, as we all know that he is actually working for the PBoC and has been spying on this blog to test the reactions of the western investment community to various implausible argument stimuli and pass the information on to Beijing.
Notice how absurd and contradictory his comments are? No one with any common sense and the rudiments of an education could come up with the things that to posts. Nice try, Dr. Wang. So are you going long US Dollars this time? Is it a great time to get into commercial real estate right now? We greatly appreciate your helpful advice, my regards to the Chairman.
September 23rd, 2009 at 3:31 pm
HW i didn’t say their wouldn’t be consequences of such action. the outward appearance is akin to lipstick on a pig but the underlying corpse is festering. the thrashing in our bond and currency markets could make this move a net loser. the fed has to walk a very fine line. the problem is they’ll have to walk it for far longer than i’m sure they’re comfortable with and the longer you walk the more likely you are going to fall. i’m not a gambler i only bet on near sure things and in this current scenario i’m not willing to bet my money.
September 23rd, 2009 at 3:33 pm
I think I’ve figured out who HarryWanger’s alter ego is – I’m starting to see a pattern. I’d like to see if someone else comes up with the same conclusion.
September 23rd, 2009 at 3:34 pm
I still think the Wangman is lb pulling our leg.
September 23rd, 2009 at 3:35 pm
Here comes Wankster dip. Buy with leverage! Buy!!
September 23rd, 2009 at 3:40 pm
Hairy Wang has to be BS-ing everyone. But hey this blog community needs him as a foil to what would amount to a one-sided argument. Besides, he makes for some great comic relief.
Keep up the great work, Hairy.
September 23rd, 2009 at 3:41 pm
Gladly will buy on any 2-4% dips as I’ve stated in the past. They won’t get any steeper than that. There are so many waiting to buy into this market that even a 25 point retreat on the Dow today is met with massive buying. Just wait until Q3 numbers come out. GDP is going to really surprise to the upside. That is the catalyst for 11,500+ Dow.
September 23rd, 2009 at 3:47 pm
@Harry:
What’s the really great upside surprise on Q3 GDP? I thought the consensus is already around +3%. What are you expecting: 5%? 10%? The market is not perfectly efficient, but one would at least expect some of the expectation if not all to be priced in right now…
HCF
September 23rd, 2009 at 3:49 pm
@Thor:
Is it Cvienne -:) I haven’t seen him in a while.
September 23rd, 2009 at 3:51 pm
Here it comes, Wanger. Get ready. Buy with leverage.
September 23rd, 2009 at 3:52 pm
Don’t forget that the Fed has been issuing statements a day or two later that contradict the FOMC statement.
September 23rd, 2009 at 3:52 pm
Fall fall fall..nice reversal going on.
Anyone besides me think Moodys will not see 2010?
September 23rd, 2009 at 3:53 pm
@manhattanguy
ain’t me, my friend
September 23rd, 2009 at 3:53 pm
Harry, I actually agree that there will be dip buying at key technical levels, and that this will continue until some of the dip buyers have lost shirt, pants, Rolex and Gucci loafers.
Not onboard for a Q3 earnings rally. Banks are going to have some problems gaming their earnings reports for a second straight quarter. Q3 GDP could be +10% but it’s all Govt money so it’s hard to see that being sustained. Remember that the y/y comparisons for Q3 earnings are not favorable as the economy hadn’t fallen off the cliff yet.
September 23rd, 2009 at 3:56 pm
HCF: Even at 3% the market has a lot of upside. And consider this from a friend: Michael Mullaney, a Boston-based fund manager at Fiduciary Trust Co., which oversees $9 billion. “There’s going to be a very strong near-term economic rebound greater than expectations.”
I’m seeing more and more economists saying this as well. I’ll stick with them.
September 23rd, 2009 at 3:58 pm
SPX failed today right at the 89 week MA…
September 23rd, 2009 at 4:00 pm
leftback: Q3 GDP is going to be the big surprise. Also, while comps to ’08 won’t be necessarily easy, expectations are ramped down significantly. Did you see what General Mills said? You’ll be seeing a lot of that. Tech especially. We’re hearing demand is up across the board. I truly believe most people will be surprised at the strength of this mini boom that started this quarter.
September 23rd, 2009 at 4:03 pm
cv-
dude- your analysis on the FF league message boards- a lot of thought and input there- need to sit down tonight and digest them- also-
that CNBC Sucks cracks me up- what a whiner- all an act i’m sure
September 23rd, 2009 at 4:05 pm
@HW
http://www.demotivateus.com/blogging-now-you-can-show-the-whole-world-why-no-one-listens-to-you/
September 23rd, 2009 at 4:09 pm
Manny – that’s who I think HW is! When one is gone, the other never responds, and LB is the only one who tends to respond to HW when we’re all ignoring him. Plus HarryWanger just sounds way too British to me.
Come on LB, fess up ;-)
September 23rd, 2009 at 4:11 pm
@HW: read this
“The index resumed an upward trend after declining in July for the first time in almost a year, vanishing hopes of stabilization in the industry after record high credit losses.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCNN2340746220090923?rpc=44
That should tell you about your theory on economic rebound. Sorry to burst your bubble.
September 23rd, 2009 at 4:12 pm
@Thor: I guessed it was lb a LONG time ago. Maybe you didn’t see that. The last name “Wanger” way too close “Wanker”, which is an old English term. I think lb is messing with our heads.
September 23rd, 2009 at 4:23 pm
Manny – you must have missed my Alzheimer’s post last night – I’m not so good with “The Memory” ;-)
September 23rd, 2009 at 4:23 pm
didn’t someone pull posts from harry wanger @ yahoo finance that were posted months ago- saying all the same stupid insipid nonsense? can’t see lb perusing those boards even for a laugh-
if so- then it is most likely a legitimate poster- who legitimately stupid- or f411
September 23rd, 2009 at 4:28 pm
@ Harry:
If all the money is betting that the rebound is going to be “better than expectations,” then the expectations are pretty high then. Most of the mainstream types on CNBC, etc. are pretty goddamn bullish right now. All the “big money” Bob Doll @ BlackRock, your friend @ Fiduciary Trust Co., are long as hell on technology, commodities, consumer cyclicals, etc. Even Marc Faber, Jim Grant, etc., says to buy stocks. Who, other than Gary Shilling, and us whack-jobs here on the comment boards on the Big Picture, is bearish? How can economic recovery beat expectations, when almost everyone expects it to beat expectations?
HCF
September 23rd, 2009 at 4:29 pm
To paraphrase my last post:
You can only generate alpha by betting AGAINST the crowd AND being RIGHT….
HCF
September 23rd, 2009 at 4:29 pm
Look at BBBY’s report this afternoon. That’s not cutting costs, etc., it’s actually increased revenue over last year. You’re going to see a lot of this for the past Q. Better revenue and earnings on items at BBBY. That’s not exactly WalMart. Now we’re seeing spending at mid level retailers and revenue gains YOY.
September 23rd, 2009 at 4:31 pm
manny/thor-
didn’t someone find posts from harry wanger at Yahoo Finance that were posted months ago??? i find it hard to believe that LB was perusing the Yahoo message boards- even for a laugh-
most likely a legitimate poster- who is legitimately stupid- or f411
September 23rd, 2009 at 4:53 pm
It’s interesting, whether Harry exists or not is immaterial. Many people think the way he does, that is, they approach the markets completely unemotionally. He seems to manifest what I’ve always referred to as the “coporatization of the individual.” These are people who act without feeling, whose bottom line is the bottom line.
Harry is a lot of people, probably most people on Wall Street.
September 23rd, 2009 at 4:54 pm
AHAB – I don’t think so, and since HW hasn’t given us a link to even one of his posts outside this sight I’m going to have to agree with Manny on this one.
September 23rd, 2009 at 4:59 pm
thor-
someone did pull posts and posted them here- can’t remember who- same stupid comments and the same reaction from the Yahoo folks- they at least had the ability to block his posts-
anybody else out there remembers that?
September 23rd, 2009 at 5:07 pm
ahab@4:59 –
i remember that
i said he was denis kneale, whoever that is/was
…or as impermenence surmises – he is a composite of many and only exists in the ether to haunt us with such foolishness
September 23rd, 2009 at 5:12 pm
Technically, the USD is likely headed for the toilet.
September 23rd, 2009 at 5:22 pm
in the near term, if the USD heads for the toilet, then the wanker maybe right – one trade, as espoused by lb
September 23rd, 2009 at 5:24 pm
USD into Toilet = Amero and North American Union… “In these difficult economic times, we must look to join hands with our neighbors to the north and south, to form a union that allows us to tackle the problems we face…”
Step by step…
September 23rd, 2009 at 5:30 pm
Wes-
that is why i thought the best move was for the Fed to put Wall Street on notice- that the current measures WILL end at some point- that it is not forever-
but they did pretty much the opposite
dogfish-
where is that quote from? Also- what’s in it for Canada?
September 23rd, 2009 at 5:36 pm
@ Wes
What trade did lb expouse?
September 23rd, 2009 at 5:37 pm
@ ahab
Canada gets rid of their six problem providences in the west who want to become U.S. states. Be careful what you wish for…
September 23rd, 2009 at 5:42 pm
Cinefoz; why are you calling yourself Hairy Wanker ;-)
September 23rd, 2009 at 5:45 pm
Pat G: There is ONE TRADE. Long or short the dollar. LB can see both sides.
September 23rd, 2009 at 5:47 pm
Pat G -
i believe what lb has been saying is that “it is all one trade”
i think he is referring to the effect of the USD carry trade
resulting in dollar down – equity market up, dollar up – equity markets down
September 23rd, 2009 at 5:48 pm
…there – you got it from the proverbial horses mouth
September 23rd, 2009 at 5:53 pm
@ leftback
I didn’t want to read back through the responses. But you are right. With the equity markets getting continued solid props from the FOMC, it looks like dollar down-equity markets and metals up.
September 23rd, 2009 at 5:58 pm
Harry, you must have missed my reply to you last night again and it does get tiresome asking you the same question over and over.
First you missed a heck of a game with UofW beating USC this weekend, but being in a cabin in the woods with no tv for the weekend is great too. The mountains are beautiful especially this time of year, is there any place special you like going,
Second doing my own research and re-thinking things, I do believe you are correct that the S&P will probably push well past 1100 and possibly even as high as 1500, but WHAT will sustain continued growth after that? What about all the debt that is being created?
September 23rd, 2009 at 6:08 pm
franklin: Sorry I missed that part of the post. “WHAT will sustain continued growth?” In a word, Technology. And we have the most talented people and infrastructure in the world building that sustainable growth. It’s the next big giant leap that will create massive amounts of jobs. The world is and will become very, very dependent on our technological advances and demand will be incredible.
September 23rd, 2009 at 6:12 pm
HW – OK I’ll bite. What technology specifically do you think is going to be the “next big thing”
PS – Web 2.0 doesn’t count
September 23rd, 2009 at 6:23 pm
Harry,
I figured you had missed that post as it was late in the evening, even for us PNWesterns, BUT I have asked you simular questions like that before and they have gone unaswered.
I guess you are not a big Husky fan then huh? What about the Seahawks you like them?
Sitting at the same table as Thor (IT) I am inclided to ask the same question – technology is driven by inovation, inovation is driven by need and/or desire, need is driven by growth, growth is driven by capital. Where is this techlnological growth going to come from?
Also yesterday you said
“The jobs lost were artificial in a sense since they supported the bubble. With that crash comes the opportunity for growth. Yes, I do think, unfortunately, that the recovery will not include tremendous job growth.”
How do you get to “create massive amounts of jobs” from “recovery will not include tremendous job growth”?
Thanks
Franky420d
September 23rd, 2009 at 6:29 pm
franklin: posts, emails are easy to misinterpret and not give enough info. I’m referring to time frames. Initially, the mini boom we are in right now, will be jobless for quite some time. But just as it was with any life changing innovations, like the auto, it will take time to build exponentially. When the exponential phase hits that’s when the job creation will be massive. But that could be ten years out. Meanwhile, we’ll start the expansion with this mini boom of economic growth near term with jobs lagging unfortunately.
I like the Huskies. I love going to games at the most beautiful setting in college football. Seahawks fan too but still true to my Detroit roots.
September 23rd, 2009 at 6:29 pm
thor-
after reading Wanker’s post- tell me it doesn’t sound exactly like f411- you know-
idiotic
September 23rd, 2009 at 7:03 pm
Harry – Detroit fan…… Oh no……. I hope they win a couple games this year.
I totally agree, most things in written form can be easily misinterpreted and that is why I would rather ask then not.
I have one heading back to UoW and was compelled to watch the game all though the truth be known I am more of a Cougar fan. But I think the Huskies will rebound a little quicker then Detroit will.
September 23rd, 2009 at 7:05 pm
Ahab…. Whaooooo dude, watch what your say’n about my little bro – cuz he might not be bright, but he sure is stupid. That and he smokes a little too much weed.
September 23rd, 2009 at 7:07 pm
@Wanger
I actually agree with one of your thoughts for once. Technology will be a boom. The specific technology will most likely be green energy. The only problem is while we are on the verge of this technology today it is prohibitively expensive (got jobs?) and years away from being economically viable. So while you are right, you are wrong on time. Don’t worry though, you’re in good company around here on being wrong on timing. However if we wait long enough we’ll all be correct at some point – even Wanger.
September 23rd, 2009 at 7:10 pm
Ahab – You have a point there, I do still think it’s probably LB though – notice neither of them has confirmed or denied a link. The more I read HW the more amused I am though. I agree with Had Enough, he is most definitely our foil. Throws a bit of a wrench into the mix.
September 23rd, 2009 at 7:26 pm
I don’t know about HW, but it’s becoming increasingly clear who F420d is. :) The posts have been uncharacteristically lucid and thoughtful lately.
September 23rd, 2009 at 7:31 pm
…you guys are getting freakin’ paranoid
September 23rd, 2009 at 7:33 pm
HW, don’t think I didn’t notice you skipped directly answering F420 and my question on specific technologies.
An important fact to remember when looking at the lead the US has in computer sciences is that all programming is done in English. All of it. This gives us a huge advantage that will not easily be removed by the developing world. Obviously, one could make an argument for India, but last I checked most of their star talent was coming here. If my own department at work is any indication, that’s for sure.
September 23rd, 2009 at 7:49 pm
Technically, I have the body of a god…sadly, that god is Buddha
September 23rd, 2009 at 7:52 pm
@Thor –
He reminds me of a high school kid, who is trying to show off, the kind of kid who walks up to your lunch table and says
Kid “I fucked a girl this weekend”
You “oh who”?
Kid “You wouldn’t know her”
You “Why not”
Kid “She goes to a different school”
You “Which school”
Kid “One that’s across town”
And you just know the closest that kid got to doing anything sexual that weekend was in the palm of his hand.
Well HW is that kid.
He does not tend to answer questions with specifics, but round generalities, therefore he is suspect in my mind. He throws out vag generalities i.e. “the indices will lead the way” then refuses to back them up and that grows tiresome quickly. I do not mind his view are opposite most all other posters, but PLEASE back them up.
September 23rd, 2009 at 7:53 pm
F420 – Absolutely.
Vag generalities? Freudian Slip? ;-)
September 23rd, 2009 at 7:57 pm
if we all took a kiersey temperment test -
the posters on this site would be 90+% rationals
franklin, HW, et (that’s note etc, btw)…. would be in the other 10%
September 23rd, 2009 at 8:06 pm
@ ahab
That quote is made up by me, but it’s what I envision our politicians saying when they decide to pull the trigger on converting the SPP to the NAU. Then you have this from 2007:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hiPrsc9g98
September 23rd, 2009 at 8:13 pm
Also, ahab, forgot your second question. There’s nothing in it for Canada. Nor Mexico. Nor the majority of Americans.
Same with the SPP, and that huge highway they are building from Mexico up through the heartland.. so that Mexican ports can be used and corporations don’t have to deal with the longshoremen unions in Cali. Rich get richer…
Here is Dr. Ron Paul on the subject:
http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul349.html
September 23rd, 2009 at 8:40 pm
Thor:
“An important fact to remember when looking at the lead the US has in computer sciences is that all
programming is done in English. All of it.”
As a programmer for many years now, this surprised me. I re-read it a couple of times to see if I was missing a joke aspect to it. Alas, my jokedar showed no sign of attempted humor. I mean, I agree that most programming is done in English… but that really isn’t that important… and could change, like all oil being priced in dollars…
And knowing English only helps a programmer if they were taught proper programming… I’m a self-taught computer dork, and by the time I got into the work field (sas institute) I was amazed at how basic the computer knowledge was of many of the new compsci grads I met. In their defense, they were well-spoken…
September 23rd, 2009 at 9:19 pm
Harry is funny….I need a tricky new name….I’m thinking Professor Enuff McTripe….
Economy is set for liftoff baby!!
The only thing that will be rising more than bankster profits and govt debt is crime!!
That’s why I started a company selling nonlethal personal defense and home security products….
Seriously.
:)
September 23rd, 2009 at 10:23 pm
Dogfish – Point well taken, but programming is mostly done in logic and Engrish happens to be the langue used to write it. But because most all programs originate in and or for American products it also makes since that Engrish would be the language used. Also Engrish is one the most dynamic languages on this planet, come up with a new word today and by tomorrow it is common place, I am not saying a new language can not dominate our planet, but I think it will many many years before that happens.
And although many computer science people may be well spoken, I know I had to take a ton of math too.
September 23rd, 2009 at 10:54 pm
“And we have the most talented people and infrastructure in the world building that sustainable growth. It’s the next big giant leap that will create massive amounts of jobs. The world is and will become very, very dependent on our technological advances and demand will be incredible.”
Yeah, we will produce unicorns and leprechauns will take you to a pot of gold and Greenspans will shit growth.
WTF?
September 23rd, 2009 at 10:55 pm
logic != language
The operator is the logic part… the two variables could be in any language and it not make a bit of difference… Programming could be in swahili and any programmer worth their salt should be able to figure out what’s going on by following the logic…
Engrish will remain language for as long as our western culture dominates. That said, I’m looking to start learning Cantonese. or Mandarin. Not sure which to do first.
I hated math. Specifically, high-level calculus, and more specifically, 3d Integration in Polar Coordinates. It was at that moment I re-evaluated whether I wanted to continue in engineering.
Christopher, I’ve been thinking of jumping in the alter-ego game here too. Maybe BarryHoser will show up and provide a faux-canadian foil to all the other shi’ite we have going on around here.
September 23rd, 2009 at 10:57 pm
“Yeah, we will produce unicorns and leprechauns will take you to a pot of gold and Greenspans will shit growth.”
This produced awesome and hilarious imagery in my head. Especially the image of a line of Greenspan clones crapping feces-laden paper money all over the unis and leps.
September 23rd, 2009 at 11:51 pm
Dogfish – not really sure how to respond to your posts. Are you a programmer now? If so what do you program? Please tell us how you think (realistically) C++, Java, Perl, Cobal, XML, UNIX, as well as all of the applications, databases, operating systems, etc, written in these languages could easily be changed to another language. I’m not interested in the technical aspect of how this could be done, but the financial and logistical way in which you believe this would be done.
Although I am not a programmer, I have worked in the IT field for 15 years. I currently work for a company that uses a number of offshore resources to program for us. To say that their work even remotely compares (in either quality or consistency) to the programming we do in house would be a stretch.
I will say nothing about your comparing denominating oil in another currency to programming languages, as I think that speaks for itself.
As to your desire to learn Cantonese and Mandarin – seriously? Please tell me you’re not one of those China Rising people. If you believe China and the rest of Asia will be eclipsing the West I would very much like to hear your rational for this opinion.
September 23rd, 2009 at 11:53 pm
rationale – sorry, it’s been a long day
September 24th, 2009 at 12:01 am
Dogfish -
In short, what I’m trying to say, and what I think you failed to catch, is that just because something is technically possible does not mean that it will happen. In this case, It will be too cost prohibitive.
September 24th, 2009 at 10:32 am
Darn – Looks like I missed the last part of this conversation.
Yes logic is the language IF- FOR-THEN programing is built around once you have tha frame work in place and a compiler and an operating system that will support your programs, it is just (almost) as Thor explained – stick in whatever language you want in to your shell and away you go.
Again as Thor says ANYTHING CAN happen, heck a yellow hippo migh come floating out of the sky and I can ride it to work every day, but it doesn’t mean it will happen. Engrish is the language most platforms are written in and unless you plan on living well into your 200reds I doubt we will see any other language besides Engrish being widely used to write code.
September 24th, 2009 at 11:38 am
Thor:
“Please tell us how you think (realistically) C++, Java, Perl, Cobal, XML, UNIX, as well as all of the applications, databases, operating systems, etc, written in these languages could easily be changed to another language.”
I don’t think something written in C++ can be easily ported to Perl or Ruby or VB.NET…. that’s just silly. What I was saying was that, for example, it’s easy for someone using English to define their variables and functions in C++, to instead use, say, Swahili or another language to write their code in C++.
Basically, the chosen cultural language does not hold much importance within your chosen programming languages.
I brought that up because f420 posited that it’s an advantage for compsci peeps here in the states that most programming is done in English. My whole point was that the importance of the cultural language that you’re using is small potatoes compared to properly learning the syntax, logic, and structure, and how to practically apply those things, to a particular programming language. What language you name your variables and functions in is just not that important. Thus, that cultural language choice of English in programming is such an inconsequential advantage as to not exist at all. Otherwise you’d think the UK would be leading the world in programming.
I think the confusion here is spawned by me possibly not being clear on cultural language vs programming language when I said “language”.
I am currently a programmer now, been doing so for 20 years, interspersed with some 2d and 3d graphics jobs along the way… unfortunately I’m currently doing some legacy VB work, which I can’t stand, but it pays the bills. VB is possibly the worst language ever conceived short of lolcode. Left to my own devices I’m mostly a PHP/mysql database programmer. My parents gave me Borland Turbo C compiler for christmas when I was 12. Taught C in my high school when I went there. Learned to hate fortran and cobol when at NC State. I’m not the best programmer, but I’ve been doing it a long time.
I, too, have been unimpressed by the quality of code I’ve seen from offshore. For a while I contracted with a team of vietnamese, and then when employed at another company I worked with a team in India. Shaky, inelegant code.
“I will say nothing about your comparing denominating oil in another currency to programming languages, as I think that speaks for itself.”
My point was the status quo can always change. I don’t see how that is inaccurate. I agree that doesn’t mean it will change, but the important thing is to keep the mind open to all possibilities. Black swans, my friend.
“As to your desire to learn Cantonese and Mandarin – seriously? Please tell me you’re not one of those China Rising people. If you believe China and the rest of Asia will be eclipsing the West I would very much like to hear your rational for this opinion.”
I do think China is rising, whether they will eclipse the West is up for debate, it’s possible though admittedly unlikely. But they are doing more things right than we are, they are definitely acting the role of upcoming empire, while our leaders are doing everything they can to make sure ours is in decline. The problem for them will be whether they can spur enough domestic demand to decouple themselves from relying on our (overspent) consumer culture.
September 24th, 2009 at 12:36 pm
DogFish – point taken on programming languages.
We have discussed China here at length so I won’t go into too much detail about what many of us believe in that case other than to point out the obvious flaw in the below statement.
“But they are doing more things right than we are, they are definitely acting the role of upcoming empire . . .”
According to who are they doing anything at all right? Do you believe any economic numbers coming out of the Chinese Government? If so, why? Do you honestly think their GDP grew more than 6% last quarter? What are your thoughts on their banking system? How about their recent hoarding of commodities?
China is a very cheap place for the west to have their good manufactured, as was Japan 30 years ago. Given the demographics and ethnic issues China faces in the mid to long-term future they stand a far greater change of collapsing (as they have done several times in their long history) than ever becoming a true world power.
A suggestion: If you’re seriously considering learning Chinese, I would recommend Mandarin. Cantonese is, as I’m sure you are aware, spoken by less than 10% of the Chinese population. Unless of course your thoughts are to do business in or emigrate to Hong Kong
September 24th, 2009 at 1:58 pm
“According to who are they doing anything at all right?”
Me. Just news sources I read here and there. Not saying they are doing everything right, but more than we are.
“Do you believe any economic numbers coming out of the Chinese Government?”
Just as much as I believe the economic numbers coming out of OUR government. Supposedly our advantage here would be our free press that serves as a check against government power… oh wait…
“If so, why? Do you honestly think their GDP grew more than 6% last quarter? What are your thoughts on their banking system? How about their recent hoarding of commodities?”
I don’t have the exact answers, my conclusions very well may be completely, absolutely wrong. I’m not an economist. But I see them running surpluses and manufacturing goods to export to other countries (although it’s mostly all cheap stuff, while we currently retain the title for high-end manufacturing, this could change if the present momentum persists). I see their central bank using those surpluses to purchase up foreign assets. This is a path of economic growth: surpluses and assets.
I see us getting distracted by bs social wedge issues, letting our country be run by two organized crime families under the guise of political parties who care more about the success of their party and corporate donors than the country, letting our government become subservient to corporations instead of the people, letting private profits and hypocritical and/or ideological special interests dominate the direction of this country (like free-market proponents who don’t see any problem with our main trading partner being a communist country with a horrible human rights record that pegs their currency to maintain a positive trade balance), acting like a service-based economy can grow (trading money back and forth while bankers take a cut of each transaction… doesn’t lead to real growth), wasting endless resources trying to extend overseas imperial adventures that have never ended well for any empire in history (Think if instead of war profiteering for a few we had invested those trillions domestically in things like infrastructure… or paid off some of our national debt). True, most of these issues exist to some degree in all countries, they are to some degree a result of hooman nature. Our country may very well recover and remain the major power in the world. You never know.
But we could also allow our hubris to lead us down the road to ruin and relive what Russia went through in the 90s. Then we will be watching the BRIC countries become equals on the world stage. We are not an exceptional country by default, it came from hard work and focusing on what’s important by previous generations (for the most part). And if we don’t focus on whats important than we won’t remain the exceptional we currently are.
September 24th, 2009 at 2:01 pm
Also, as to the Mandarin/Cantonese question. I was probably going for Mandarin first, but I do have a soft spot in my heart for HK, thus the Cantonese. Plus, they are quite similar, so learning some of either leads to gains in the other.
It’d still be smart to learn even if they didn’t rise up. It’d be quite useful to be able to communicate with a community of billions whether your objective is buying or selling, and whether they are a more or less powerful country.
September 24th, 2009 at 2:04 pm
this: than we won’t remain the exceptional we currently are.
should’ve been this: than we won’t remain the exceptional country we currently are.
which I’m sure you figured out by context, but I had to post a correction anyway, because I’m like that.
I wish we could edit posts.