Temp Hiring: No Imminent Jobs Recovery
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As we have long noted, the coincidental and leading aspects of the employment data remained mired in negative territory. They are not forecasting a jobs recovery anytime soon.
Bloomberg:
U.S. companies are still reducing the ranks of temporary workers, showing that any rebound in overall employment won’t happen soon, according to William Hester, an analyst at Hussman Econometrics.
The CHART OF THE DAY compares the number of temporary employees with nonfarm payrolls since 1990, according to data compiled by the Labor Department. Increases in the number of temporary jobs in 1991 and 2003 preceded similar recoveries in payrolls, as the chart illustrates.
“Temporary hiring is a reliable leading indicator,” Hester wrote yesterday in a report that featured a similar chart. Last month’s decline in these jobs was “one of the most discouraging data points” in the latest employment report, he added.
The number of temporary workers dropped by 6,500 in August to 1.74 million. The total has fallen each month since January 2008, a month after the current U.S. recession officially started. During the 20-month streak, temporary jobs have declined by 33 percent.
Note also that Manpower said its index of U.S. companies’ hiring plans set a record low for the third straight quarter, dating back to 1962.
Not exactly a green shoot, here . . .
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Source:
Temporary Hiring Is Bad Sign for Jobs: Chart of Day
David Wilson
Bloomberg, Sept. 8 2009
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=avYl515PP_pM
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September 9th, 2009 at 10:48 am
No one’s working because they’re all watching that stupid speech and “education” and “responsibility” from the Socialist in Chief.
I mean look at what Obama has done to the financial industry, he’s just ruined it.
September 9th, 2009 at 10:50 am
No workers, no temps…
IOW – Profits Soar! DOW 10,000!
September 9th, 2009 at 11:04 am
well- that there is talk of a recovery makes me chuckle-
if it is guaged by a the performance of a manipulated stock market and egregious bank bonuses- then CNBC can hyerventilate and wet their pants and say we are in recovery-
but for the rest of us . . . hmm . . .not buying it-
you only have to look at the consumer credit #”s from yesterday to understand
September 9th, 2009 at 11:07 am
that’s not how that emminent sage, Alan Greenspan, sees things …
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aMGB9u1Q3Tho
(I figured folks could use a chuckle)
September 9th, 2009 at 11:09 am
@cvienne
“… DOW 10,000!”
It’s 20,000 or nothing at all.
September 9th, 2009 at 11:16 am
“I mean look at what Obama has done to the financial industry, he’s just ruined it.”
assuming this is meant as a sarcastic comment-
since you are obviously very, very smart- please let us know what you know-
so you can put our minds at ease
September 9th, 2009 at 11:20 am
@VD: Do you have anything informative to add, or are you just here to poke and prod with your snarky comments? Not many people here are anti-Obama wingnuts that you caricature (I gave $700 to his campaign and went door-to-door for the first time in my life and am rooting HARD for him to succeed), so I’m not really sure you’re at the right site for the kind of snarky (and not even clever snarky at that) comments that you regularly post here. Very troll-like, I must say. Take it somewhere else.
September 9th, 2009 at 11:21 am
Huffpo would be a good place for you, Mr. VD.
September 9th, 2009 at 11:29 am
Manny and Ahab – you two are brutal (I love it!) :-)
September 9th, 2009 at 11:34 am
Got to love this bull market! Who needs temp workers anyway?
Longs have got to be loving this bull market. Skeptics are not being rewarded.
September 9th, 2009 at 11:40 am
@hopeImwrong
> Who needs temp workers anyway?
Why do we extend this: Who needs jobs at all?
We can all just trade the same crap to each other at ever higher and higher prices. We’ll all be rich!
=)
HCF
September 9th, 2009 at 11:43 am
@HCF: That’s what I’ve been saying for months. Everyone should quit so we can all trade worthless stocks to each other. We’ll all be rich. It’s that easy. HarryWanger said so.
September 9th, 2009 at 11:52 am
Hah. Employment is a lagging indicator. It has no relation to future earnings and even if had, earnings have no relation to stock market. And all those commodity traders cannot be wrong. Job or no jobs, we need more oil, more copper.
We had prosperity without savings till now, and now we are going to have prosperity without jobs.
September 9th, 2009 at 11:56 am
HCF and Manny – You are right! And I’m way ahead of you. Looks like the dollar is going for multi year lows! That means “party on with risk assets!” Go baby, go. I hope the temp workers have some dough to go long here, cause we are just getting started.
September 9th, 2009 at 11:59 am
“prosperity without jobs”
isn’t that Obama’s new campaign slogan :-)
September 9th, 2009 at 12:11 pm
Wow. My eyes have been opened by this exchange and how perfectly it fits into the current trends … can you imagine the productivity chart going asymptotic as the number of workers declines to zero? Infinite productivity!
What’s that you’re whispering in my ear, Dr Mandelbrot? Something about chaotic collapse?
Luckily, Benoit Mandelbrot is no economist. Think of the shambles the mathematical world would be in if economists made the rules. Luckily, economists are impotent, and make no rules. They are the astrologers of our day.
[cue Bad moon rising]
September 9th, 2009 at 12:12 pm
OT:
Maybe, finally, hundreds of years later they’ll have a real chance to f* us white folk over:
“Sioux Indian Tribe Buys Broker-Dealer Westrock Group ”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aN2P6fAe87ck
September 9th, 2009 at 12:32 pm
constantnormal :
Please don’t offend the astrologers. They are at least sometimes right. And if they are wrong then people won’t go back to them. An economist can always be wrong and still be an “expert”. That’s a luxury few of us have.
September 9th, 2009 at 12:42 pm
[...] (Via The Big Picture) [...]
September 9th, 2009 at 12:48 pm
Market soaring again today! Get this in your head…It is indeed a jobless recovery. All economic indicators are becoming stronger each report. It’s sad that so many jobs have been lost but now stabilization and growth are returning. Jobs will start to be created in early 2010 just to meet demand. Simple as that.
September 9th, 2009 at 1:01 pm
Me-thinks these low volume rallies are the new “normal”. Going to pump for as long as they can.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/spy-volume-40-below-average
September 9th, 2009 at 1:20 pm
HarryWanger might be correct. Yeah, the debt/GDP ratio is huge. But, it was pretty bad in 2000. Steve Barry’s anticipated correction didn’t happen then. Instead, with cheap money, we blew another bubble. Why can’t we do this again? We just need more easy credit and the balls, er, “goldman sacs” to stick to the plan.
With the government taking the debt off private hands in exchange for cash, private hands will spend that cash. Even if it’s bonuses for themselves, the rest of us will get to enjoy that nice “trickle-down” that we all know and love. A pony for everyone!
If every other government participates, then in 5 years all govies can forgive each others’ debts. (Kidding aside, maybe that’s their plan.)
September 9th, 2009 at 1:37 pm
@wunsacon: If only it were that easy. The “plan” is probably war at some point and a big one.
September 9th, 2009 at 1:44 pm
Why would you folks think VD was addressing someone on this board, versus just sharing a snark to rib some of the wingnuts elsewhere?
And, as for requiring that every remark “add” something, if his remark misses the bar, what percentage of remarks do? As someone on CR (basically) said: “*Everything* has already been discussed. Now all that’s left to do is wait to see who’s right. In the meantime, we might as well amuse ourselves.”
September 9th, 2009 at 1:46 pm
The root issue is that there are too many people and not enough jobs. A Pandemic would help this issue nicely. If your gonna go off the deep end might as well dive full in. ;)
September 9th, 2009 at 1:47 pm
Mannwich, NK is “trying” their best:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article6824949.ece
;-)
September 9th, 2009 at 1:49 pm
@wunsy: Why even make comments like that are unrelated to Barry’s post and certainly not informative? VD has been making snarky posts now for weeks in response to posters here who have been critical of the O man. It’s just a waste of space. I just don’t think this is the proper forum for it. If it’s not directed at some of us here, then why post it here?
September 9th, 2009 at 1:53 pm
LOL, Todd. We might need all four horsemen, to take care of *this* much overcapacity.
Actually, I don’t consider all of it “overcapacity”. I wish we were giving away homes to the poor/homeless rather than letting some of them rot.
September 9th, 2009 at 2:07 pm
I’m a big proponent of buy a house get a green card, think of all of the new demand that would create. plus it would solve some of those other demographic issues no one is talking about 10years down the road.
September 9th, 2009 at 2:09 pm
>> If it’s not directed at some of us here, then why post it here?
I imagine this is not uncommon. Don’t we criticize a lot of folk whom no one on this board ever defends?
Yet, no one here starts thinking it’s directed at them or that they have to answer to it. At least, not every time.
Well, maybe I’m wrong. But, my guess is VD wasn’t thinking of *you* or generally addressing this board.
September 9th, 2009 at 2:13 pm
Wunsacon – I would agree with Manny. VD tends to post here with veiled insults rather than adding anything of substance to the conversation. Whether it’s already been spoken of or not. My guess is, however, that VD is like a child in that it’s the reaction TO his posts he’s looking for.
September 9th, 2009 at 2:32 pm
I think we’re also now at a point now where the broader economy is slowing down and unemployment is risingBut little attention has been paid to what a recession and accompanying spike in unemployment could do to a housing market already stricken by faltering sales, sinking prices, high interest rates and soaring foreclosures.
Read More: http://www.housingnewslive.com
September 9th, 2009 at 2:43 pm
Thats why I have CA has a tipping point, between unemployment, state government funding issues, and real estate. Something will give and it will wash out across the rest of the country.
September 9th, 2009 at 2:46 pm
Todd – I think Florida is going to fall before CA does.
September 9th, 2009 at 2:54 pm
I’m glad I don’t live in California anymore…
…and I’m glad I resisted the urge to move to Florida…
& how would a pandemic alter the jobless figures, exactly?
What? are only the unemployed going to die?…
September 9th, 2009 at 2:56 pm
Astrology (by Chris Rock)
Aries: You’re gonna die
Capricorn: You’re gonna die
Gemini: You’re going to die…twice
Leo: You’re gonna die
Scorpio: You’re going to die FUCKING
September 9th, 2009 at 3:02 pm
Thor
It is indeed a close race, but with roughly twice the population, CA is the bigger problem for the nation, I do believe. They both went all in on the housing bubble and are feeling the wrath of it’s unraveling. Of course NV and AZ are close behind. Nasty stuff happening in those parts.
September 9th, 2009 at 3:30 pm
I would have mentioned FL but their size is not near as great as pointed above.
Mann mentioned war as a solution, I was tossing out one of the other possible solutions.
At least I now know my future, I get to die twice.
September 9th, 2009 at 7:08 pm
“Todd – I think Florida is going to fall before CA does.”
I think MI or NY could beat both.
Wouldn’t that be rich if NY defaulted.
September 10th, 2009 at 2:20 pm
[...] It’s depressing, but understandable. Businesses are gun shy about adding to current staffing levels until a true recovery takes hold. From what I can tell by talking to many small-mid sized owners and managers, the trauma of the past 18 months has taken a real toll. Instead of hiring, they are squeezing existing workers — that’s why productivity is soaring and temporary hiring is down. [...]