Key Dates and Events in Credit Crisis
By Barry Ritholtz - September 17th, 2009, 12:00PM
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Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
September 17th, 2009 at 12:05 pm
Not as pretty as your usual graphics.
September 17th, 2009 at 12:14 pm
imo the PPT (#9) intervention was the killer .. those in cash (or could get it quick) did not like the PPT running interference with domination game plan
see for my brain flow thread:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/09/are-retail-sales-very-strong/#comment-216498
September 17th, 2009 at 12:25 pm
f411,
you workin’ the Fashion-Forward-meme, as well..
~~
ol’ #8, the elevator-shaft drop ‘in response’ to Congress showing some Spine, was some, admirable, Statecraft.
Ratigan’s take: “America(n)’s being held Hostage..”, is a bold one. May he continue to shed Light upon those, shadowed, Fields of Inquiry.
As Orwell, well, knew: ““During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act”
http://en.thinkexist.com/quotation/during_times_of_universal_deceit-telling_the/193642.html
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/shadowed
yes, def. #1
September 17th, 2009 at 12:32 pm
Missing something……….MickeyCain, “The Economy is Fine, and by the way I want to lead the free world, thank you for your vote”
4 words changes a career, like will u marry me
September 17th, 2009 at 12:40 pm
Ok, time to move on from the “crisis” recap stuff. Let’s look at where we are now and where we’re heading. We get it, time to move along now.
September 17th, 2009 at 1:14 pm
hah, now Harry is trying to tell BR how to run his blog. Let’s forget everything that happened and move on – nothing to see here, nothing to see. All is well, BUY BUY BUY!
September 17th, 2009 at 1:32 pm
Thor: Not trying to tell BR how to run his blog but the same news and graphs and charts and stories are everywhere, non stop. Ok, we get it. I worked in a business once where people freaked when something went wrong a looked for someone, anyone to blame. As I would always say, “Look, it happened, so let’s figure out how to fix it and move on.” That’s still my philosophy now.
September 17th, 2009 at 1:36 pm
Harry, stop telling BR how to run his blog.
September 17th, 2009 at 1:48 pm
“Ok, we get it.”
You do not speak for anyone here but yourself and possibly F411. Do not presume to think you know what we like or would like to see posted here.
September 17th, 2009 at 1:53 pm
Well, I watched this a couple of times. Ken Fisher is a permabull, and was a bull last fall. (He reminds me of Abby Joseph Cohen with more 5 o’clock shadow)…
If you haven’t watched this, it might be a good thing to see.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/334648/Too-Much-Debt–Please.–We-Need-MORE-Debt-Says-Ken-Fisher?tickers=tlt,tbt,spy,dia,%5Egspc,udn,uup&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=
Too Much Debt? Please. We Need MORE Debt, Says Ken Fisher
..To me this guy is dead from the neck up…I can understand parts of his thesis, but let’s say you were an Investment Bank (pick one) last year and leveraged up to you eyeballs. The economic climate changes, and whammo, you are out of business unless two sympathetic administrations bail you out with taxpayer money.
Fisher says 500% debt to GDP is coming (watch the video)…to me, there are soooo many things that can and do go wrong when you are leveraged in this fashion. It almost seems like he’s an alien….Great until the punchbowl springs a leak…..
September 17th, 2009 at 2:13 pm
http://misstrade.wordpress.com/2008/10/15/insightful-somebody-put-ken-fisher-and-his-marketing-schlock-out-to-pasture-time-for-change/
Insightful, somebody put Ken Fisher and his Marketing Schlock out to Pasture, Time for Change!!!!
..I’ll leave this now, but note in this video from last summer 2008, he was very bullish, and got his hat handed to him….and you would still be 2000 points under where you’d be if you’d left your stock position when the video was made….
I don’t think we need more debt…either personal, national, or in business. There are just too many ways the debt crushes you if you don’t do it just right…
September 17th, 2009 at 2:14 pm
Bruce,
Fisher is interested in one thing only – gathering assets (OPM). Who knows if he even believes his own bullshit.
September 17th, 2009 at 2:55 pm
Forgot that on #9 the House approved TARP and the Dow dropped 517 points. I thought that was kind of funny when it happened.
September 17th, 2009 at 2:57 pm
Isn’t Fisher the one who use to offer that commodity trading class by mail? LMAO
September 17th, 2009 at 3:05 pm
Harry,
Since nothing has been fundamentally fixed, that should leave plenty of room for you to apply your strategy. Getting a clear understanding of the past is always a good idea before you start to change the future, of course.
September 17th, 2009 at 3:26 pm
I still think that they wanted to slow Gold down so that’s why they’re buying the 5y,10 and 30y. The dollar has been treading water all day. It almost broke through 76.oo and it looked like the dollar was about to walk over the edge of a cliff.
September 17th, 2009 at 3:42 pm
But think how many chapters of Bailout Nation were spawned last September – and then there was Red October™..!
K. Fisher AUM is proportional to K. Fisher fees. Who cares what happens to OPM after that? He’s long gone.
September 17th, 2009 at 3:42 pm
Keep this chart handy for comparison value in 2012, I reckon about the same month as well, as we watch the republic fall apart, along with the markets. Nothing’s fixed, but everything is papered over with freshly-minted federal reserve notes. Yet, today, while the blossoms still cling to the vine, we can pretend winter ain’t coming.
September 17th, 2009 at 3:44 pm
Someone is sending a message about the dollar:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aLZMqIMQ2Ys0
September 17th, 2009 at 3:46 pm
AmenRa,
Right you are, MarketWatch, and Forbes, are, but two, vicious peddlers of his, Fisher’s, e|mail (-ings)..
“Fisher Investments is a Woodside, CA based money manager,
serving prestigious institutions and affluent individuals.”
“This message has been sent consistent with the provisions of the CAN-SPAM Act.
Fisher Investments | 13100 Skyline Boulevard | Woodside, CA 94062
To remove yourself from future Fisher Investments emails, click here
To view Fisher Investments’ Privacy Policy, click here
Any investment program in securities may be volatile and can involve the loss of principal.
No assurances can be given as to the accuracy of market predictions.
©2009 Fisher Investments. All rights reserved.”
10cc understands, well, the Nature of the gambit..
September 17th, 2009 at 3:55 pm
I hope everyone realizes that today was profit taking and not the beginning of a down move (not yet anyway). I’d wait to short on Monday if anything. Today’s move is a setup. That is all.
*plus this was the first test of 1067-1068. ;)
September 17th, 2009 at 3:58 pm
ruh-roh… CDO downgrades:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aB5dUUjCbMRU
AmenRa: Tomorrow is expiration (quadruple witching), once that is out of the way it could be GAME ON.
September 17th, 2009 at 4:08 pm
Dow 10K – this WSJ article has a cute pic of a gent wearing a Dow 10K rally hat! Remember when it was barreling towards 15K, each 1K had gone faster than the one before, the CNBC blowhard crew would say how long for the next K?
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2009/09/17/dow-10000-when/
September 17th, 2009 at 4:09 pm
@leftback
If I see a daily reversal I’ll wait and see if the S&P can break the weekly reversal price. If not then the S&P will make a run for 1121. My .02
September 17th, 2009 at 4:54 pm
@AmenRa,
I clicked a link you put up recently, dollar by AmenRa. Do you like that charting platform that you are using? I’m looking for a new one. Those new footprint charts are sweet. I guess what I’m asking is if it’s worth the ~$800/quarter?
Thanks in advance
September 17th, 2009 at 5:56 pm
@benn22
The majority of the cost depends on your data service provider. The software per month is not expensive. Check out Investor/RT at http://www.linnsoft.com/
It has functions that were not available in my previous charting software.
September 17th, 2009 at 6:26 pm
AmenRa: “I hope everyone realizes that today was profit taking and not the beginning of a down move (not yet anyway). I’d wait to short on Monday if anything. Today’s move is a setup. That is all.”
You can’t be serious, can you?? Indices took a natural pause and probably will again tomorrow before the next leg up. Dow down 7 points and you think it’s the beginning of a down move? Really? Nothing more than a pause, a breather. That’s glaring.
September 17th, 2009 at 6:34 pm
@HarryWanger
http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-long-term-mutual-fund-flows-into-us-domestic-equities-2009-9?utm_source=Triggermail&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Clusterstock%20Chart%2C%20Thursday%2009%2F17%2F09
September ’09 ain’t quite in the bag yet.
September 17th, 2009 at 6:40 pm
@leftback
where do you see the administration drawing a line in the sand on the dollar? I’m guessing that they won’t let it go below the April 2008 USD index lows of around 72.
September 17th, 2009 at 6:57 pm
Ken Fisher was also among the crowd that argued that the pitiful savings rate wasn’t bad and that it didn’t matter because of asset appreciation, etc. He’s a shameless hack who’ll say anything to fleece the folks, it seems. This crowd that “grew up” in the great bull market just can’t let it go. They are convinced it will always be as it was from ’82-’00 (with the ’03-’07 kicker courtesy of a housing bubble, of course).
September 17th, 2009 at 7:24 pm
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September 17th, 2009 at 7:27 pm
constantnormal: The first comment on that article from “thebuddist” sounds like I could have written it. Think about what he/she says and what I have been saying. It makes sense. This market won’t go down. Too much government behind it, plain and simple.
September 17th, 2009 at 8:24 pm
@HarryWanger
I guess I’m not really surprised. You’re obviously not big on history, or on loading up both sides of the scale and seeing which way the needle tips. Even a casual look at historical crashes — including the one that ended six months ago — would point out that the gubbermint and the Feral Reserve are not omnipotent, even when they have plenty of ammo. And today … the ammo of the Feral Reserve is in precious short supply, they are even unable to print money to support Treasury bonds in the manner that they would like, due to the pernicious effects on the USD. The Feral Reserve of the 1930′s was not even close to being as hamstrung as today’s is, and yet they managed, with a full load of ammo, to repeatedly shoot themselves in the foot, knee, and groin. We ain;t that much smarter today, no matter whut Bubba Bernanke would have ya believe (especially when he’s angling for another term).
A far better criticism of my referenced chart was the asterisk alongside the September bar, noting that it was obtained by taking the 2 weeks that have just ended and multiplying that run rate by 2 to guesstimate the entire month. That’s not a terribly strong argument — it could turn completely around in the next 2 weeks, or the withdrawal of funds could accelerate. If one looks at what fund managers typically do during the final quarter of the year, they tend to lighten up on positions, locking in gains and preventing embarrassment from a last minute shellacking that spoils a perfectly good annual track record. But you being a big-time mover of OPM, you know all that.
But pointing to a comment from an unknown person (could be somebody’s dog — this IS the innertube, after all) whose argument is ‘the Big Banks will not let the “market” drop’ — these would be the same Big Banks that just recently required unprecedented actions to save their sorry asses, right? RIGHT??? Well, that’s about as funny as somebody reading your commentary and mistaking it for wisdom.
“Too much government behind it” — hahahahaha — go look at last year’s efforts of the Pakistani stock exchange in trying to control their tiny stock market.
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1824461,00.html
“Too much government behind it”, yessiree. You, sir, are a fountainhead of irrational optimism.
Too much is never enough.
September 17th, 2009 at 10:17 pm
@HW
That’s what they said after the Oct 07 high. You see what that got them.
RIF. I didn’t say we’re starting a down move. That will happen after a reversal on the weekly or monthly TLB.