Wow, a little travel and suddenly, the week is nearly over. Here are a few interesting items that caught my eye:

• Rosenberg: Equities carry too much risk (FT)

Five Scenarios for the S&P 500 (Singer)

Imagine If Lehman Brothers Had a Football Team (Crossing Wall Street)

Emerging Markets Have Room for Growth (Real Time Economics)

Bullish Estimates Fail to Keep Up With S&P 500 Gain (Bloomberg)

Is Modern Macro or 1978‐era Macro More Relevant to the Understanding of the Current Economic Crisis? (Gordon, Northwest U)

• Brad DeLong’s Magnificant Takedown of Chicago-style foolishness

Analyst Josh Rosner Nailed the Crisis (wallstcheatsheet)

LIFE magazine now available on Google Books (Inside Google Books) LIFE photo archive

Anything else worth reading?

Category: Financial Press

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

100 Responses to “Thursday Reading”

  1. call me ahab says:

    man BR- one more and you would of had a 10 spot

    Christopher-

    must have been voluntary repo- what repo man would want that job : D

    LB-

    you do know that is where Harry gets his stock “tips”- right?

  2. leftback says:

    Classic ZH post – we all know prop desks were gunning the futures higher – and some excellent comments:
    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/moonraker-fund-management-claims-banks-using-bailout-money-ramp-markets

  3. madman130 says:

    Magnificent Takedown or cherry-picking?

    You decide.

    I want to ask again, Recovery, what Recovery?

  4. leftback says:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/distribution-fed-day

    This post has an embedded video with a good explanation of carry trades for those NON-BELIEVERS.
    [Bruce, the guy in the video is not LB].

  5. Bruce in Tn says:

    I believe in the carry trade, LB….and you are the man…besides the yen did this long before peeps thought they could do it with the USD..

    I think this guy Ip must be reading my posts here…

    http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/343434/Odds-of-Trade-War-%22Starting-to-Inch-Up%22-Ip-Says?tickers=IP,MMV,WY,GT,X,%5EDJI,%5EGSPC&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=

    First Tires, Now Paper: Odds of Trade War “Starting to Inch Up,” Ip Says

    Lefty, I think I have seen you in a video before…I think it was Behind the Green Doorstop, or something….have you ever been in the movies?

    …Just wonderin’…..

  6. call me ahab says:

    lb @ 5:10-

    exactly what most of us here have suspected for sometime-

    wonder if it will ever make it to a mainstream publication w/ some investigative journalism- like Taibbi w/ Rolling Stone- surprisingly-

    the best investigative journalism out there whne it comes to financial chicanery

  7. Christopher says:

    Anyone else catch the Netanyahu speech at the UN today??
    I like this man.
    I wish O had some of his sand.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=44HkjBDQz_k

  8. Pat G. says:

    “That paradigm of aggregate supply has been fully implemented to explain why both inflation and unemployment were so high in the 1970s and so low in the late 1990s. Empirical success and common sense have triumphed over the endless search for deep micro foundations in a world in which macroeconomic interactions triumph over individual choice. Modern macro needs to go back to the drawing board and recognize that the integrated world view of 1978‐era macro has been established and tested for more than 30 years and can no longer remain ignored.”

    A long read but worth it.

  9. Thor says:

    LB – This is why I don’t bother with ZH anymore. I read the post on Moonraker then followed that up with the article written about it in the FT. Now I don’t disagree with the press release, but TD is a sloppy “journalist” with a very clear agenda, he fails to give his readers all the pertinent information. . . .

    “We should also note that much of that bailout money has not necessarily been used to buy equities, but to boost banks’ capital — core Tier 1, for instance, is now at a five year high according to Barclay’s Capital.”

  10. Christopher says:

    @ call me ahab

    Cairo IL is a dump….kinda like East St Louis with meth instead of crack….
    It was the local town bank that did the repo!!

    Can you imagine?

    Bank to 911: Help!! We’re being robbed!!

    911 Dispatch: We’ll get a car right out there hon….

    Also….
    Very ominous news out of KY….I’m sure many have seen this….very ugly….
    http://voices.washingtonpost.com/federal-eye/2009/09/eye_opener_census_worker_hange.html?hpid=moreheadlines

    FWIW…I got some family out that way….been to a few reunions….
    If that guy had walked into some sort of illegal op (pot/meth/shine) he would have just disappeared…
    That happens out in the country sometimes…
    This looks like could be something very different.

  11. call me ahab says:

    thor-

    look at this way- the National Enquirer is very “in your face” but many times breaks the story that the reputable papers don’t- like Limbaugh and Oxycontin- so- when you read ZH you know what your getting into-

    the Washington Post it is not- but- to me that’s a good thing

  12. aitrader says:

    The benchmark gauge for U.S. equities has climbed 57 percent since March 9 to 1,060.87, leaving it above all but one of the 10 projections by forecasters in a Bloomberg survey this month, the first time that’s happened in data going back to 1999. The average forecast for the S&P 500 from the strategists is 1,022, about 4 percent below the index’s current level.

    Nah, it’s goin’to hit the 1077 mark (low of 666 x 1.618 full Fib retrace) and then crash back to 411 (do the Fib inverse calc and you’ll see it in the numbers).

    Just ta remind ya BR. You’re on record as fully supporting the Federal Reserve. That one will come back to haunt ya, I fully believe.

  13. Onlooker from Troy says:

    Christopher

    It could be a scary job being a census worker in some parts with all the acrimony against the fed govt growing to a fevered pitch amongst some folks. Nasty

  14. Thor says:

    Ahab – That’s a pretty good way to look at it actually. . . .I should probably learn to separate the wheat from the chaff (if’ that’s the right analogy) on some of the more in your face blogs.

    Or I could just stop bitching about ZH too, that would work ;-)

  15. aitrader says:

    Nasty

    But well deserved.

    Keep fightin’ for freedom and justice, beloveds, but don’t you forget to have fun doin’ it. Lord, let your laughter ring forth. Be outrageous, ridicule the fraidy-cats, rejoice in all the oddities that freedom can produce. And when you get through kickin’ ass and celebratin’ the sheer joy of a good fight, be sure to tell those who come after how much fun it was.

    THE MOLLY

    Truer words never said from Patrick Henry or ol Ben or any of those wunnerful blokes who founded this goldanged thing of ours…!

  16. Pat G. says:

    @ ahab

    There are some “hillsy” folks out there who take their privacy very seriously. Who shoot rather than talk first to anybody that remotely resembles “the government”.

  17. DiggidyDan says:

    “We’ve certainly come very fast, very far,” Barry Ritholtz, chief executive officer and director of equity research at FusionIQ, told Bloomberg Radio. “The issue is — are we going to see a rollover in six months or a consolidation or more gains? We suspect that we’re going to see some consolidation.”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aAEMjR73Intw

    Seems Barry is showing his cryptic current position on the radio. Didn’t see this posted on TBP, so I thought I would put it up. Good for you with another high profile citation.

    I personally vote for rollover, but i don’t know about the 6 months part.

    Now’s the time to buy your dip Harry, just have enough cash for buying over and over and over again.

    Also, aitrader, I noted that level here when it was breeched 5 days ago, along with other analysis nobody probably saw due to late night posting: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/09/annotated-dow-update/#comment-217148. SPX 1078 does seem like an intermediate top, with my other potential top being the S%P 1174 resistance level.

  18. Mannwich says:

    @aitrader: But I hardly think that hanging a Census worker is “well deserved”, do you? This is the kind of crap that clowns who know better like Beck, Limbaugh, and Hannity are stirring up in people who don’t know any better.

  19. aitrader says:

    @Mannich

    Didn’t mean that hangin’the innocent was the way to go. I meant that our anger is misplaced and should be redirected to those that cause(d) this mess.

    Seems a world o’ rationalization and ‘sound bites rotatin ‘around things while pointless acts like harming the innocent lackeys (census takers in point) take focus rather than taking it up directly with the gents ‘n ladies in charge.

  20. Mannwich says:

    @aitrader: I hear you but We the Sheeple are taking it out on the wrong people and things. Mis-placed anger at these levels is very dangerous. The Barbarians are at the gate.

  21. Christopher says:

    I wonder if Glenn Beck smiled when he heard about the census worker.

  22. aitrader says:

    @ Mannwich

    The Barbarians are at the gate.

    I beg to differ sir. The barbarians are in charge. The gate was breached and torpedoed long, long ago.

  23. Pat G. says:

    @ aitrader

    “taking it up directly with the gents ‘n ladies in charge” appears useless which leads to frustration which leads to retribution which leads to the innocent dying. Think Iraq, Afghanistan, Africa and several other civil war ravished nations.

  24. Mannwich says:

    @aitrader: You mean THOSE “barbarians”. I wouldn’t call them barbarians per se. They’re merely the well-heeled taking advantage of the barbarians and manipulating them to turn on the wrong people/entities instead of themselves. Makes me sick to my stomach to be honest that people can be/are that gullible and ignorant in such large masses in a country that’s theoretically supposed to be a bit more educated.

  25. cvienne says:

    @Manny

    Agreed…

    The last thing we need are clowns like Hannity & Beck pushing everyone over the edge…

    Can this country, for once, try to get to the root of its ailments?

  26. Bruce in Tn says:

    As a practical matter, retirees, IMO, should oppose much what is being offered as reform. I work in this industry every day since 1977, and it still doesn’t make since that if you have medicare now, that you’d take a chance on substantially less coverage. Again, Just My Opinion….

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/GOP-to-block-health-nominees-apf-3042498517.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=

    GOP to block health nominees in Medicare spat

    “Many Democrats deny that their legislation would cut benefits for seniors, but Congress’ top, nonpartisan budget official said this week that proposed cuts to the private insurers’ so-called “Medicare Advantage” program could ultimately result in such reductions.”

    For those still working, the numbers may be quite different, and that is not my point. My point is about folks already on medicare….

    B in T

  27. Mannwich says:

    @cvienne: To answer your rhetorical question in one word: NO.

    Speaking of ignorance, someone please explain what this means to me. I read it twice and don’t entirely understand but it most certainly sounds bad.

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/09/fdic-credit-quality-declined-sharply.html

  28. Thor says:

    Bruce “and it still doesn’t make since that if you have medicare now, that you’d take a chance on substantially less coverage”

    Bruce, buddy – those covered by medicare are in for substantially less coverage one way or the other. There is simply not enough money to continue benefits at their current level. It’s a mess right now, never mind what it’s going to be like once the boomers start flooding the system, more than half of them quite a bit overweight I might add.

  29. Bruce in Tn says:

    Thor,

    You may be right, but you don’t win anything if you are like the AARP and give up without a fight…

  30. Bruce in Tn says:

    You could, when 65, just start wearing a “kick me” sign, but if I live that long, not for me.

    Frankly, even if the AARP thinks this is the better solution, they have shown their hand before the last round of betting. I would never make commercials endorsing anyone’s plan until I had wrung the last bit of blood out of the stone. I suspect a car dealer salivates when he sees one of these bozos coming in to replace their present auto…

  31. VennData says:

    Obama’s Death Panels really exist! Joe Wilson was right… uhh.. sort of.

    http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2009/09/rep_frank_says_there_will_be_d.html

    I’d pay to see Joe Wilson and Barney Frank meet at the Georgetown Starbucks.

    Go GOP! Thank you for all you’ve done so far in this crisis. You’ve really helped out.. a lot.

  32. Bruce in Tn says:

    Manny,

    I think the FDIC is trying to say “We’ve fallen, and we can’t get up.”

  33. cvienne says:

    @Bruce

    These days, if you’re a GM dealer, you’re not burdened with the incentive to sell a car ot not…

    Aah the benefits of a government who pays you to sit around, watch Michigan State games, and come to the voting place at the appointed hour…

    What a life!

  34. franklin420d says:

    You guys are not seeing the green shoots here – OPEN YOUR EYES!

    Ok an inicent person got killed, truely tragic, but that means one less person on unemployement when the census is over and one more person off unemployement to take the other census worker.

    Plus the 11 laid off police officers from Illinios might be able to go on patrol in Kenyucky.

  35. franklin420d says:

    EVEN MORE GREEN SHOOTS.

    The police dept from Illinios will now be saving money on car payments, insurance, up keep and gasoline, they can also use this oppertunity to start bike partols which will help to make them healthier too i.e. Less need for Obomacare. Plus with all the money they saved, they could hire an officer or two back from Kenyucky.

  36. Thor says:

    VD – are you serious?

    “There will be death panels enacted by this Congress, but they will be for non-bank financial institutions that will not be considered too big to die,” House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank, D-Mass., vowed today.”

    How in the hell does this do anything? What about BANKS that ARE too big to fail being put on the a death panel?

    This Elmer Fudd Moron make me sick to my stomach, he’s nothing buy an annoying sound byte machine.

  37. Pat G. says:

    @ Bruce

    AARP is a bogus organization supposedly representing the interests of millions of older Americans. In time, the fact that they have been infiltrated and influenced by the enemy (big money) will be apparent to all.

  38. TraderMark says:

    Barry, excellent Julian Robertson video here

    you can almost here the pain in his voice as he talks about what is going on in the States…. quite dour really.

    http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2009/09/julian-robertson-us-may-face-armageddon.html

  39. jr says:

    http://www.house.gov/apps/list/hearing/financialsvcs_dem/fchr_092509.shtml

    “Full Committee Hearing – H.R. 1207, the Federal Reserve Transparency Act of 2009

    9 a.m., Friday, September 25, 2009, 2128 Rayburn House Office Building

    Witness List & Prepared Testimony:

    * Mr. Scott G. Alvarez, General Counsel, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
    * Mr. Thomas E. Woods, Jr., Ludwig von Mises Institute”

    Webcast will be here: http://www.house.gov/htbin/leave_site?ln_url=http://boss.streamos.com/wmedia-live/financialserv/16489/300_financialserv-qwertyuiop_070131.asx&ln_desc=Live+Webcast&tmpl=/financialservices&wait=2

  40. Jessica6 says:

    @Pat G.
    There are some “hillsy” folks out there who take their privacy very seriously. Who shoot rather than talk first to anybody that remotely resembles “the government”.

    Reminds me of the Oscar Wilde quote America is the only country that went from barbarism to decadence without civilization in between – certainly seems the case there, unfortunately.

    Here’s what I’ve bookmarked to read later:

    http://www.tnr.com/article/how-i-became-keynesian?page=0,0

  41. mcHAPPY says:

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/boj-economic-conditions-have-stopped-worsening-2009-09-24

    “Stopped worsening” is the new “less bad”.

    Priceless. My only fear is the new lingo blinds the herd for a few more months.

  42. algernon says:

    DeLong says: “Herbert Hoover was on the right wing of the American political spectrum and tried as best he could to follow pro-market, pro-globalization, pro-competition economic policies (Prescott)”

    That is just so blatantly factually wrong! that it alone makes me wonder about everything else he said.

  43. “…That hasn’t stopped an activist group from infiltrating high schools with the panicky message that we are on the verge of a “planetary emergency” due to global warming.

    These alarmists are the recently formed Alliance for Climate Education, an Oakland, Calif., nonprofit created by wealthy wind energy entrepreneur Michael Haas. The organization has targeted five metropolitan areas and now is opening a Washington office.

    Haas, who donated $24,600 to President Obama’s campaign and victory funds last year, stands to reap millions of dollars in government subsidies that climate change-driven energy policies would bring.

    Meanwhile the teenagers targeted by ACE are treated to hip presentations with slick animation to propagate the idea that they and everyone in their spheres of influence must modify their behaviors so as to stop global warming…”
    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columns/OpEd-Contributor/Global-warming-propaganda-infiltrates-schools-8260905-59675442.html
    “NaturalNews) In spite of claims by pharmaceutical companies that they do not discharge their products into the water supply, federal researchers have discovered that waters downstream of pharmaceutical plants are more heavily contaminated with drug residue than waters elsewhere in the country.

    In one study, conducted by scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), researchers tested the water entering two water treatment plants down the sewer line of several pharmaceutical factories, as well as at other plants not receiving sewage from drug plants. Researchers discovered drugs at “much higher detection frequencies and concentrations” at the plants receiving effluent from pharmaceutical factories. Drugs detected included opiates, a barbiturate and a tranquilizer.

    In a second study, researchers from the Environmental Protection Agency tested the water entering a wastewater treatment plant in the city of Kalamazoo, Mich., down the sewage line from a Pfizer drug factory. They found that the water entering the plant was exceptionally high in levels of the antibiotic lincomycin, which the factory was producing at that time.

    “There’s some product going down the drain,” said Bruce Merchant, the city’s public services director…”
    http://www.naturalnews.com/027092_water_drugs_rivers.html

  44. investorinpa says:

    A complete analysis and links to 3 articles talking about the dollar, China’s desire for a new currency, and what to expect if the US dollar continues to go down the drain. http://contraryriches.blogspot.com/2009/09/bye-bye-us-dollar-helloglobal-currency.html

  45. VennData says:

    University of Illinois President to Step Down After Scandal

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/24/education/24illinois.html?hpw

    How DARE they… we need to support the children of successful white people… how else will they get a the leg up they deserve… speaking of legs… you can’t have some little Asian guy as ‘The Chief!” Could an Asian guy do the dance? Or an Indian? C’mon you definitely wouldn’t want “The Chief” to be some Indian.

    Welcome to Obama’s America. Where a black man can be president and white people are denied opportunities just because their ACTs scores are a little lower (why aren’t their more questions about “American Idol’ anyways? [sic])

    Sign me up for the next Tea Party.

  46. JRobie says:

    I thought this was amusing:

    Someone Thought It Was Good Idea To Scrap A $300,000 Bentley In Cash For Clunkers! ( http://www.businessinsider.com/someone-thought-it-was-good-idea-to-scrap-a-300000-bentley-in-cash-for-clunkers-2009-9 )

    There are also links for the worst CEOs, sports franchises, and places to live in the US.

  47. JRobie says:

    I thought this was also a good article:

    PRESS RELEASE: 37SIGNALS VALUATION TOPS $100 BILLION AFTER BOLD VC INVESTMENT
    ( http://37signals.com/svn/posts/1941-press-release-37signals-valuation-tops-100-billion-after-bold-vc-investment )

  48. Mannwich says:

    Interesting goings on in the Asian markets this evening. Harbinger?

  49. Marcus Aurelius says:

    Wanker’s RIMM (damn, sounds nasty) purchase is down a good bit AH.

    Making money sure is easy when you da’ man.

    Wanker’s condensed guide to investing:

    Buy stock at any price, cash in. Simple.

  50. Marcus Aurelius says:

    Manny:

    Dang! Asia’s crashing (at least the Nikkei and the Hang Seng). Tomorrow will be very interesting.

  51. Mannwich says:

    @Marcus: We got him to at least make some specific calls AHEAD of the fact, instead of conveniently after the fact. That’s all I wanted to see. I’m happy now.

  52. Mannwich says:

    NIKKEI down over 300 pts. Yeah, this market is certainly an easy bet. No way am I getting back in any time soon. In fact, I HOPE it goes up more so that I can cash out my dwindling equity longs on strength and get ready for the shorting opportunity of my lifetime.

  53. Marcus Aurelius says:

    Me too.

  54. Marcus Aurelius says:

    “Me too” was in response to your 10:25 comment (had to clarify lest I sound like a Mannwich groupie).

  55. Mannwich says:

    @Marcus: You can’t be a “Mannwich groupie”. I’m a “Marcus groupie”. ;-)

    The turn is near, my friends (my best John McCain impression). Can’t deny reality forever.

  56. call me ahab says:

    manny/ma-

    all i can say- is-

    the indices will lead the way-

    that’s my advice- i heard it from a good source-

    must be true

  57. Marcus Aurelius says:

    indices.

  58. Mannwich says:

    @ahab: LOL. I almost feel bad for poor old Harry. We need dissenting viewpoints here but you gotta bring your “A game” or else it gets constantly swatted in the stands by all the Mutombo’s here (w/finger-wagging).

  59. call me ahab says:

    manny-

    as i said before- this is a rough crowd-

    i had a pang of sympathy for harry myself- but-

    you can only throw the lifeline so many times before you give up-

    still think it is f411- same simple minded portrayal of things-

    but- who knows- maybe just some dude trying to connect on something he thinks he has all figured out

  60. Mannwich says:

    Exactly ahab. It’s the know-it-all certitude that drives me nuts. The “it’s so easy” mantra. It is NOT easy. Humility should always rule the day in trading or investing (which is dead, but I digress).

  61. Thor says:

    Manny, no shit. Why do you think I keep my big mouth shut when you guys talk stocks. I know you guys would be easy on me, but man oh man you guys are brutal ;-)

  62. Mannwich says:

    @Thor: I KNOW I’m wrong all the time and will be the first to admit it. I got smoked during the run up in March – June, but I lived to play another day. It was a valuable lesson for me. The certitude reminds of those real estate investors who said the same damn thing before losing their shirts by staying in the scam too long.

  63. JRobie,

    that 37signals art. was pretty funny..

    I was hoping, after I saw the serial# on that FRN, it would have added to 37.

    the F & the I could have been construed rather easily..
    ~~
    speaking of M3, “Both bank credit and the M3 money supply in the United States have been contracting at rates comparable to the onset of the Great Depression since early summer, raising fears of a double-dip recession in 2010 and a slide into debt-deflation…”
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/6190818/US-credit-shrinks-at-Great-Depression-rate-prompting-fears-of-double-dip-recession.html
    ~~
    and, a wilcard:
    “It is the Federal Reserve Board that is bankrupt, not the USA

    The American people are finally waking up to the evil nature of the Federal Reserve Board. However, the Pentagon and alphabet soup agency types have not quite figured everything out yet. They think that if the Fed goes down, Americans will suffer a catastrophic drop in living standards but it does not have to be so. With a smooth transition to a new financial system, the American people will be able to get on just fine. The US annual current account deficit, that is to say the amount of stuff Americans buy from the rest of the world with their credit card, was, at its peak, 7% of GDP. Now that their credit card is being cancelled Americans will have to pay with cash, that means they will have to buy 7% less than before. That 7% drop has already happened.
    Since the Federal Reserve Board and Washington D.C. are corporations that have nothing to do with the constitutional United States of America, if they go bankrupt, the constitutional government of the US would not owe that money. Furthermore, the new financial system will pay off accumulated overseas debts of the American people (this is a one-off deal folks) with gold. The new financial system is run by a group of honest bankers, plutocrats and regulators who support a new Marshall plan to end poverty and stop environmental destruction. To accomplish this they would like the full cooperation of the Pentagon and the various agencies. That means they will keep paying them their salaries and probably will also give them a pay rise.
    It is the Feds, with their threats of violence and plots of terror in a desperate attempt to keep power, who are dragging the US into chaos. Their solution is to force the American people to pay off the Fed debts over a period of hundreds of years. The French people finally payed-off the last of the Napoleonic debt only a few years ago.

    So folk in the military and other agencies need to ask themselves if they are patriots or enforcers of debt slavery.”
    http://benjaminfulford.typepad.com/benjaminfulford/

  64. Marcus Aurelius says:

    “. . .know-it-all certitude that drives me nuts.”
    ______

    It’s not what he says, exactly, it’s the freekin’ hubris.

  65. Thor says:

    Manny don’t know what you’re talking about. All real estate markets are local, I know for a fact that there are neighborhoods in San Francisco that are doing quite well. How can you deny these thing? There are areas of Houston that are near record highs right now!

    Sorry, couldn’t resist. I will say though, I have always been a very big admirer of people who can admit that they’re wrong. Maybe it’s part of my field, IT people screwing something up big time and trying to either deny it was their fault, or worse, blame someone else. It’s the people who quickly admit a mistake that are the one’s I tend to trust the most, but in and out of work.

  66. Marcus Aurelius says:

    MEH:

    Paid off in gold, huh? I thought gold was worthless (according to some). I wonder why they wouldn’t accept real money.

  67. Mannwich says:

    @MA: And the fact that I KNOW he will disappear once he gets smoked. No doubt in my mind. I know the type.

  68. Thor says:

    MEH, man you’re an interesting guy, the things you post for us are all over the map and I love it. One of these days you’ll have to tell us a bit about your background. I’m fascinated.

  69. Mannwich says:

    @Thor: Exactly, which is one reason why I’m not in corporate American anymore. It’s all about deflecting blame (and work) to others in that environment. Terribly unhealthy for the soul.

    An aside – the keys to any successful relationship is to be able to admit when you’re wrong, to not hold grudges, and to be able to laugh at yourself (a sense of humor is enormous).

  70. emmanuel117 says:

    @Mannwich 10:24PM

    Probably reacting to the downturn of the past two days. How they react to durables tomorrow morning will be Very Interesting.

    @ahab

    Dude’s riding the greatest liquidity-fueled bear market rally in American history, yet thinks he’s a hot shit value investor because he’s been buying the dips since November 2008.

  71. call me ahab says:

    MA-

    funny shit Marcus-

    and by real money you mean- the silly pieces of paper we are so enamored of?

    MEH-

    i wouldn’t give one ounce of gold- i would default first-

    come out with a new dollar- smooth things over- but guess what- the gold is still there-

    once you give it away- then you have given away “real money”

  72. Thor says:

    Manny – was just going to add being able to admit being wrong in a relationship is key to a successful one. Humor for sure, but that takes a good match.

  73. Marcus Aurelius says:

    ahab,

    Exactly.

    BTW, I was trying to respond to seer of your earlier comments, but the phone kept ringing (clients have no respect for the important things in life). Re: being a ‘Skins fan: It ain’t easy rooting for the home team nowadays (and by “nowadays,” I mean for the past decade, or so). At least I can remember the glory days (Riggins, Monk, the Smurfs, yje Hogs, etc.).

  74. Marcus Aurelius says:

    Sheesh – I need to pay attention to what I type before hitting Submit Comment. I’m sure you can decipher it (due to overuse of my cell phone for text messages, I can only type with my right thumb anymore).

  75. franklin420d says:

    Thor REALLY real-estate prices hitting historic highs in SanFran, Heck I do NOT want to miss out on this, on the next 2% pull back I am buying me a bigO mcMantion – thanks for letting me in on this little secret.

    The rest of you guys, you always admit you do not know and you are only seeing things from your point of view and lifes experiences and I have learned a lot, even if I never do get into trading, I have learned more about how economics work from all you guys (And finally knowing what direction to find my own facts) in the last 3 months then school could have ever taught me – and to that a sincer THANK YOU

  76. Thor says:

    OT – I’m heading down to Belize, Guatemala, and Cancun in about a month for a Mayan Ruins tour. Aside from being excited to see the ruins, I’ll be very curious to see how the tourist industry is holding up in that part of the world. They had to cancel our initial tour and combine it with two others because there weren’t enough people signing up.

    Also pretty sure we’re going to be heading to Iceland in June. Have always wanted to see it and wouldn’t you know, you can get some excellent vacation packaged there these days.

  77. Mannwich says:

    @Thor: Check out Coba. Was there with the wife back in ’06. Great little tour.

  78. Thor says:

    Ahab – son of a bitch. I just changed my avatar too. You won’t believe what I changed it to. How long did yours take to change?

  79. Thor says:

    MA – that’s so wrong, luckily the other half is a pharmacist, we’ll have all kinds of good drugs just in case.

    Manny, where’s Coba?

  80. MA, ahab,

    good points, it was w/this: “Furthermore, the new financial system will pay off accumulated overseas debts of the American people (this is a one-off deal folks) with gold.”, that that piece, at the min., turned into a ‘wildcard’..

    Thor,

    those Maya ruins are something else, see: http://clusty.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&query=Age+of+Maya+Ruins
    some think they harken back ~5000 years.. as well, see if you can run into someone knowledgable on the Mathematical abilities of the Mayas..
    http://clusty.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&query=Ancient+Mayas+Mathematics
    base 20, whocoodanode? what they accomplished in Astronomy is, beyond, ‘out there’, too..
    past that, re: background, maybe an appropriate venue will evince itself..

  81. call me ahab says:

    thor-

    is that some dude in a t-shirt? I wish the avatar space was bigger- more people would take advantage of it

  82. franklin420d says:

    Thor I hope you have a great time, rember to buy on the dips ALWAYS and you will be able to retire down there – that is sound advice you can take it to the bank.

    I would love to go to Iceland, I think that would be a great trip – I have never been out of the country (OK Canada)

    Manwich – My wife’s name is Carmen and I Playa…….. Oh hell it is non ya buziness what I playa with Carmen :)

  83. Thor says:

    Manny and MEH – thanks for the links, will give them a look over.

    Ahab – where’d you go. Funny thing, my nick name at work is Bluto, I bought the Popeye shirt in this pic for that reason.

  84. Mannwich says:

    No problem, Thor. There are some really good tours down there. The tour guide we had was awesome. Great sense of humor, which made it a lot of fun. At the end of the day we all did a shot of tequila together (even my wife, who doesn’t drink!).

  85. Mannwich says:

    @Thor: FYI – the photos in the link posted is not my wife and I. That was just the first way I found on Google to show where Coba is geographically. They sure look like they had fun though!

  86. Thor says:

    Manny, yeah, the look like they’re having an awesome time. I’m really excited to see Tikal is on or itinerary, can’t wait to see that. Also have a few rain forest excursions planned that I’m looking forward to.

    F420 – Start traveling my man. Cannot think of many things I enjoy more. To experience the history of another place, to get a glimpse of another culture, another way of living, really give you an appreciation how blessed we are compared to many other parts of the world. Of course, that’s a double edged sword – I’ve become much more aware of how quickly our culture has been pissing a lot of this away lately. . . .

  87. “By Michael Crittenden
    Legislation giving U.S. government investigators broader authority to audit the Federal Reserve could erode confidence in the central bank’s independence and ability to conduct monetary policy, a top Fed official will tell lawmakers Friday.

    Fed General Counsel Scott Alvarez, in testimony prepared for a Friday hearing, said legislation in the U.S. House of Representatives giving the Government Accountability Office greater leeway to examine the central bank could have a detrimental effect.

    “These concerns likely would increase inflation fears and market interest rates and, ultimately, damage economic stability and job creation,” Alvarez said in the prepared remarks for the House Financial Services Committee hearing…”
    http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/09/24/fed-lawyer-audits-called-for-by-ron-paul-could-hurt-monetary-policy/?blog_id=8&post_id=7074
    1.Palin, Sounding Like Ron Paul, Takes on the Fed
    2.Labor Market Pain Spreads: Unemployment Rates, by State
    3.Fed Statement Following September Meeting
    4.Fed Acknowledges Inflation Hawk Concerns
    5.Ron Paul Q&A: Audit the Fed, Then End It

  88. godly says:

    Thanks

    I have just put up the important news from China at Investing Contrarian.

    1. Oil Reserve being built up
    2 Chinese recovery is for sure

    all comments will be nice.

    Thanks
    Fresbee

  89. franklin420d says:

    @Thor, thank you my man, some day I hope to be able to travel, but for now I must remember my roots.

    But by the grace of God I grew up in and lived in an area that exposed me to a vast array ofl cultures, so travel was not nessisary.

    I would love to travel and see the world and people of all shapes and sizes I would love to have a better understanding of what makes people, well…… People, but……. I know better then to brag, so I hope you and yours has a wonderful time and perhaps someday me and mine can too.

  90. godly says:

    by the ways I love what the French had to say about GDP. If only GDP had Happiness included in it…….

    Read it:
    If only GDP included Happiness

    fresbee

  91. franklin420d says:

    Boy Fresbee, don’t know if your timing sucks or is on purpose, but it looks like you are stuck with economic novicies (Thor and myself)

    China does not care about the enviroment at this point in time, so I can not see a reason they would start to stock pile oil today, if they started the stock pile it would have been long ago also they have damned up a lot of H2O THEY HAVE POWER, they have access to nukelar power (Perhaps the safest and most cost effective source of power)

    So the question is WHY build up oil reserves? Hell I don’t know.

    Second post, do you believe all that is reported in our news? If the answer is even close to “I don’t know, or I am not sure” then why would you believe news coming out of China.

    Dogs bark, goverments lie, that is what they do. You can not wake up EVERY TIME the dog barks, just as you can not react every time the goverment says something. How you deside to get up or react, wel that is YOUR choice. Sorry good post, but bad timing and bad questions on your part.

  92. Christopher says:

    Iceland….good times….the saying was….”Elmer Fudd can get laid in Iceland”.

    Tour the Reykjavik cathedrals…they are spectacular.

    Lamb and haddock are among the culinary highlights.

    Don’t drink anything called “Black Death” while you are there….even on a bet….even for free….

    Don’t mess with Icelandic cops…ever…they are not your friend.

    If you rent a car…buy the insurance.

    Whatever you do don’t hit a sheep with the rental car.

    And finally…..While you’re swimming in the Blue Lagoon try not to swallow the water…it’s full of local sperm.

  93. godly says:

    franklin, I agree…..but the built up of Oil reserves got to be physical right? I mean it can be see and felt and hence any report on that should be correct. No?
    They have to stock pile now as they need to diversify their 2tn dollar assets. Dollar is increasingly falling apart so where do you put the money. Not in an FD right ? Have to own assets like Oil, copper etc.

    But Chinese recovery and stuff am not sure …bUT I do believe the chinese more than Ben and Geithner. Ben and geithner.

    anyways.
    Here another one: GS has just released a report on why Oil should reach $100 based on their demand calculation.

    Oil demand picks up:GS

  94. scepticus says:

    @had_enough – from a few threads back: “Before you boomers start to flatter yourselves for the stellar growth of NOMINAL wealth over the past 56 years, it may be sobering to learn that the rest of us are patiently waiting for the moment when we can finally take away the car keys and outsource you to convalescent homes in third world countries and can finally get to down to work cleaning up the mess you made.”

    Ouch.

    Since I’m 33, I’ll not take that too personally. Despite experience to the contrary, I’m always slightly taken aback when a simple fact based observation is interpreted without justification as an advocation of one position or another and as an excuse for a loosely connected rant.

    Nominal wealth increase is a reasonable outcome to expect of a demographic boom, until the boom subsuides at which point the wealth returns to where it came from. The credit expansion was sustainable while the boom wave spending sustained itself. So is the real ponzi scheme the expansion in credit, or a more fundamental ponzi scheme which relies on ever expanding human numbers?

    Asking this question does not justify excesses of the boomer generation and those X-ers in thrall to their ideology.

  95. scepticus says:

    I believe it is the case that french GDP-per-capita-hour-worked is higher than the same measure in the US.

    That says to me that most in the land of the free are working far too hard, or put another way, working hard not smart.

  96. scepticus,

    to your Q: “…The credit expansion was sustainable while the boom wave spending sustained itself. So is the real ponzi scheme the expansion in credit, or a more fundamental ponzi scheme which relies on ever expanding human numbers?”

    I understand that the ‘demographic bulge’ is, in itself, not a Ponzi schene, per se.

    But, our system of ‘Credit’– ‘Dollars’ lent into existence, at Interest–necessitates ever larger transactions to help square the books. Increases in population, is, but, one way to generate those increases.

    past that, this: “Nominal wealth increase is a reasonable outcome to expect of a demographic boom, until the boom subsuides at which point the wealth returns to where it came from.”
    I don’t understand. Could you clarify?