Comments on: Where Will Growth Come From ?

By: ogoodz

ogoodz — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 15:13:00 +0000

Addressing #10 I would like to point out that Terraforming is alive and well on planet Terra: The best example is the reclamation of the desert by the Israelis. Perhaps the oil sheiks will invest their petro dollars in terraforming the Sahara desert and Saudi penninsula before they run out of cash. Of course the biggest problem with that is the fact that the world’s leading experts on turning desert into farmland are Israelis! I see an opportunity there for a third party go-between to discreetly hire some Israeli experts and sell Terraforming services to the rest of the Mideast.
An interesting example of Terraforming was the discovery by NASA of a vibrant patch of green in the Sahara desert. Upon investigation it was determined that the miraculous presence of vegetation in the midst of parched desert was due to the utilization of a fence, split into pie-like sections. The owners/herdsmen who operated this simply kept moving their herds/flocks from section to section as the fodder was eaten down, preventing over-grazing. This is an example of using present technology in new, logically simple applications.
Of course, too many experts will study the situation to death attempting to justify their salaries and expense accounts, while promoting a higher tech solution costing billions and years of effort before any return on investment will be realized.
There are numerous problems lacking solutions because the “experts” have forgotten the K.I.S.S principle. Are you one of them?

By: chris steinbach

chris steinbach — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 15:57:01 +0000

A lot of good ideas, but most too small to make a dent in the macro. Here are my ideas and reasoning:

1. Green Energy – I was hooked when I heard T Boone Pickens argue that we send hundreds of billions overseas for energy and imagine what our growth rate would be if we suddenly kept it here? Also, retooling the energy infrastructure would be a huge undertaking.
2. Health Care – Insuring an additional 43 million people will result in a big increase in demand, requiring our health care sector to grow
3. Regulatory Compliance – Like it or not, SOX was a jobs program. Regulations are increasing, and I mean everything – financial, environmental, employment, etc.
4. Travel/Tourism – An increasing number of families are willing to devote a sizeable fraction of their income to travel – a big number in total.
5. Construction – When hasn’t construction contributed to growth?
6. Mining/Recycling – China is pushing commodity prices to a point that we will have to think of being more self sufficient with regards to natural resources.
7. Manufacturing – but only if the dollar falls.

By: aupanner

aupanner — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 15:46:41 +0000

there is no more long term growth is there? if world population growth continues to slow and goes negative, the system get’s smaller. without some ridiculous break through in energy (nuclear fusion), there is no hope for economic expansion. there will be re-allocations of wealth and what not within the deflating bubble (e.g. solar and wind get a burst for a short time, or the infrastructure jobs get created as the gov prints money to fund it). but the whole system will deflate – hopefully deflate and not implode! it’s pretty much impossible to avoid, isn’t it?

I thought “The Right Game” by Andrew Lees was very enlightening. Have you all read it? It’s free in the Book Club here.

By: JusTryinTaMakeIt

JusTryinTaMakeIt — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 14:07:26 +0000

For those still with me…

Did a little update for the period July 08 to July 09 … Some striking drops in certain industries.
1. Construction jobs down 18% (in one year!!!)
2. Production (i.e. mftg) down 15%
3. Transportation down 10%

By: JusTryinTaMakeIt

JusTryinTaMakeIt — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 13:16:06 +0000

Following on my (lone) analysis of job movement in this decade (even before the debacle) what was happening was:
1) Corporations were getting rid of manufacturing, office,and management jobs
2) Some high tech jobs were added and more was spent on healthcare
3) Lawyers, as always, did well
4) There were more Social Service jobs to help the people who were going through rough time
5) Those that still had jobs were spending more eating out more and getting their nails done (i.e. Food Prep and Personal Care).

By: JusTryinTaMakeIt

JusTryinTaMakeIt — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 05:50:08 +0000

Just did some more tumbling of the BLS projection prepared in 2000 which predicted job growth of 22 million this decade; and compared it to the latest actual occupational employment report prepared in May 2008. At that point on a prorated basis actual employment was already about 10 million jobs behind the projection. The biggest miss was in Production Occupations (i.e. mftg). A 5% increase was predicted for the decade, vs an actual DECREASE thru May 08 of 20%, accounting for a 3.9 million job shortfall. There were also overestimates in Office and Administrative Support Occupations, accounting for 1.4 million job creation shortfall. Of course since the latest employment analysis was prepared in May 08, the economy has lost an additional 6 MILLION jobs!!!

Aside from the projection, the areas that showed relatively strong growth compared to the rest of the economy were: Business and Financial Operations, Computers and Math, Science, Social Services, Legal, Entertainment, Healthcare, Food Prep, and Personal Care. Again, this was all before the Great Recession.

By: primordial_ooze

primordial_ooze — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 04:09:13 +0000

It seems like the last 60 years have been the Golden Age in the US for science and technology.
I only see decreasing support for the basic research needed to advance. As Federal debt grows
I see discretionary spending getting cut by a large amount. That includes NIH, NSF, NASA, NOAA,
DOE, all Federal support for basic research. In addition there are other problems:
1) Declining corporate investment in R&D
2) Declining numbers of American students who want to study science and engineering
3) Declining immigration of foreign scientists and engineers
4) Costs of attending colleges and universities leaving most Americans unable to afford it
5) Increasingly scientific illiterate society – just think of evolution and global warming

By: JusTryinTaMakeIt

JusTryinTaMakeIt — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 01:56:29 +0000

Avl Dao said: “I’d love to see an archival document from Fall 1989 predicting what the big job creators of the 1990s will be. I’d like to see what the ‘consensus’ was…who was close…who missed by a light-year.”

Well in 2000 the Bureau of Labor Statistics predicted that 22 million jobs would be created this decade. (We better have a good 2010!!!). An example of how our tax dollars are being spent WISELY.

http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2001/11/art4full.pdf

By: winstongator

winstongator — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 23:08:15 +0000

Think about 1994, at least. Intel had 486 processors which were the result of decades of development, Microsoft had 3.1, which was workable, and Netscape was available (NCSA Mosaic released in ‘93), cell phones were bricky.

My point is that those technologies were well past the ‘proof of concept’ phase, and produced profits, albeit at much smaller volumes than in the late 90’s. The things that will provide growth from 2010-2020 are already profitable today. The ‘proof-of-concept’ projects today will take 20+ years to be market movers.

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Fri, 11 Sep 2009 20:10:10 +0000

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