Afternoon Reading
By Barry Ritholtz - October 8th, 2009, 5:02PM
Some late Thursday linkage for your reading pleasure:
• Banking Lessons We Should Have Learned (Dealbook)
• Interesting Interview Jordan Kotick, Global Head of Technical Analysis For Barclays - Philosophy & Markets are related
• GOP Faces Multiple Hurdles as It Aims for a 1994 Replay (WSJ)
• The Art of Finding Good Comparables (Matrix Miller)
• Schmidt: We paid $1 billion premium for YouTube (C/Net)
• Supreme Court Justice Scalia is a supremely clueless jerk (Pharyngula)
• The 10 Most Useful Online Tools Ever (Cluebert)
What are you reading?
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October 8th, 2009 at 5:35 pm
re Scalia: I think by ‘supremely clueless jerk’ he actually means ‘complete and total fucktard’
I’ve seen interviews with the man, and he seems reasonably intelligent, so why does he choose to act like such a deliberately ignorant douchebag?
October 8th, 2009 at 5:37 pm
401k….ok ok… 20.5k…time to for a redo?
http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1929119,00.html?xid=rss-business
October 8th, 2009 at 5:38 pm
worse than the GD in…trade impact?
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2009/10/its-not-the-great-depression-its-worse.html
October 8th, 2009 at 5:51 pm
I’m reading BLS data on employment to population ratio by sex and age:
The male aged 25 to 54 year old employment ratio is 81.3% in september
2009, the second lowest reading on record (starting 1948).
This means 100 – 81.3 = 18.7% jobless rate.
Of all the five years age range, the best situation is for males aged 35
to 39 where the employment ratio is 84.3, so 15.7% jobless rate.
15.7% is currently the *smallest* jobless rate of all 5-years segment of
the USA population.
And there are people wondering if the so called “unemployment” will enter “double digit” land?
October 8th, 2009 at 5:56 pm
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703298004574458923186941870.html
The Weak-Dollar Threat to Prosperity
Measured in euros, U.S. per capita GDP is down 25% since 2000.
“Some weak-dollar advocates believe that American workers will eventually get cheap enough in foreign-currency terms to win manufacturing jobs back. In practice, however, capital outflows overwhelm the trade flows, causing more job losses than cheap real wages create. This was the lesson of the British malaise, the Carter malaise, the Mexican malaise of the 1990s, Yeltsin’s Russian malaise through 1999 and the rest. No countries have devalued their way into prosperity, while many—Hong Kong, China, Australia today—have used stable money to invite capital and jobs.”
…If the value of the dollar goes low enough, can’t we just sell California to Goldman and let the rest of us get some much needed vacation?
October 8th, 2009 at 5:57 pm
Those who think protectionism is coming bigtime tend to ignore two things:
1) The race to debase currencies is far more worrying and protectionist than a new tariff here and there.
2) Protectionism is nothing new. Many ramble on abour protectionism, but I don’t see a lot of charts with long-term tariff trends.
Enough preaching, here’s the article:
EU Members Divided Over Extending Shoe Tariffs
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125500350907673117.html
October 8th, 2009 at 5:57 pm
from ZH- re extension of the $8000 home buyer tax credit-
It is a curious state of affairs when the continuity of the stock market rally, and in fact the validity of its 60% run up to date, lies in the hands of politicians. Yet this is precisely the case . . . in the form of the extended or expanded $8,000 housing credit. The expiration of this freebie in November has spooked numerous pundits into proclaiming that it would be sheer lunacy for the government to not continue [the program]…
Philip Orlando, who helps oversee $400 billion as chief equity market strategist at Federated Investors Inc. in New York [says] If the government suddenly eliminates the stimulus program in the housing market, that will begin to call into risk the sustainability of the recovery at some point during 2010. I think that program will be not only extended, but expanded.”
Rosie summarizes this idiocy best … If state capitalism works, shouldn’t we be investing heavily in Venezuela?” Yet the adage “good news is good news, and bad news is good news” only works when Obama’s Moral Hazard doctrine is fully accepted by all market players as the prevailing trading paradigm. It is simply moronic to assume that Congress would be “so stupid” as to let natural supply and demand find their intersection points. If that were to happen, the US economy would crater so fast it would make Usain Bolt seem slower than Art Cashin.”
the USG busy at work slopping up the markets- at the beck and call of all lobbies such as the NAR-
definitely not captitalism at work- but who gives a shit- as long as traders can make some money going long- and the industries involved are protected from market forces-
makes me proud
October 8th, 2009 at 5:59 pm
@Laurent:
Economists have mentioned that women have fared better during this downturn than men. I asked my wife about this, and got a knot on my head…
Since we are now a two breadwinner nation, could skew the statistics…
October 8th, 2009 at 6:01 pm
Ritholtz, as an LI resident, you must be familiar with the orgy house scene in the movie Eyes Wide Shut. In fact, I would imagine that you personally searched for it for months, even though the mansion is fictitious and the scene was actually shot in England.
Well, as I wrote earlier today, there is a virtual secret house for traders — Andy’s Sigma Nu Clubby Elitist Traders’ Blog — that reminded me of that mansion:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/the-most-hated-rally-in-wall-street-history/#comment-223801
I thought I had written a dud comment because nobody remarked on it, when out of the blue, the very proprietor of the blog (that would be Andy) wrote me for a second straight day stating that he was laughing about my comments regarding his Orgy Blog. Can you believe that? Staying mum about the Orgy Blog on your blog, so as to mollify any further discussion of its existence, yet being so amused as to take the time to email me about his amusement with my comments!
I have to tell you, this is one of the most remarkable phenomena that I have witnessed on the Internet: a traders blog so openly accessible, so brimming with orgiastic market-hour trader talk among so many of your regulars, yet not even openly discussed, much less promoted, on your blog. It is as if these traders don’t want anyone else to know about it. At the Orgy Blog, I have witnessed cvienne engorge himself with talk of triangle formations and nibbling at Treasuries, karen tittilate the men (and I do mean men) with her tales of sleeping with QID, and ahab…well, ahab is ahab. As a man of weak but existent morals, I find myself mildly impressed at the lustful voraciousness and abandon with which these traders satiate themselves with almost real-time information exchange at the Orgy Blog during market hours, yet return to you as if an unknowing spouse, as if their daytime interludes had not happened.
Well, Ritholtz, I must leave you as I have nearly completed my Ritholtz FF trading regime (I was actually done already, but then the 49ers signed Crabtree), but as an old friend, The Great CNBC Sucks must advise you to pay a little closer attention to your regulars, make sure their needs are met, maybe even send some flowers and go on date night. Before it’s too late.
October 8th, 2009 at 6:03 pm
His argument seems thin to me.
rt
Why the U.S. Tech Sector Doesn’t Need Domestic Manufacturing
http://blogs.harvardbusiness.org/hbr/restoring-american-competitiveness/2009/10/services-can-produce-a-bright.html
October 8th, 2009 at 6:13 pm
Never one to pass up a good orgy, CNBC Sucks comments had mcHAPPY search out this lurid fantasy land with delightful and orgasmic results.
October 8th, 2009 at 6:15 pm
@rtalcott
HBS. ’nuff said.
October 8th, 2009 at 6:27 pm
mcHAPPY, sshhhh. That is ENOUGH. I do not want to be “checked out of the hotel” like that Nick Nightingale.
The password is not “Fidelio”, and you do not know of the Orgy House’s location from me.
Goodbye.
October 8th, 2009 at 6:28 pm
CNBC – aaaaaaah, you have such a way with words. Always a pleasure my friend, always a pleasure.
October 8th, 2009 at 6:30 pm
emmanuel117
I agree….posted for the “humor” value…
rt
October 8th, 2009 at 6:43 pm
“…The story begins with the vaccine industrial complex’s attempt to reduce vaccine manufacturing costs by seeking government approval to use cancerous cell lines in the development of vaccines. Vaccine industry’s rationale is that cancerous cells are “immortal.” Current vaccine methodology relies on animal cells, such as fertilized hen embryos and monkey kidneys, that die quickly in culture. Using cancerous cell lines are also much cheaper than relying on the purchase of animals, especially monkeys, that need to be sacrificed for vaccine substrates.
Roberts records two separate meetings—a meeting of the Vaccine and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee on November 9, 1998, and a subsequent gathering of the Evolving Scientific and Regulatory Perspective Workshop less than a year later. The conversations were conducted at a scientific level between top officials and expert scientists from the FDA, Centers for Biologics Evaluation and Research (CBER), the National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), the WHO and others, each providing evidence and/or confirmation that all vaccines are dangerously contaminated.
Conversations focused primarily on the influenza, MMR and yellow fever vaccines, which rely on fertilized chicken eggs for their culturing viruses. Fertilized chicken eggs, while ideally suited for culturing certain viruses for vaccines, such as the influenza and MMR vaccines, are also living incubators for large numbers of known and unknown viruses in the animal kingdom. While these do not transmit from their animal host to humans naturally, they nevertheless are sequential genetic codes, which when injected into the human body, have the potential for any number of unpredictable adverse effects by interfering or merging with the codes of human cells. Vaccine research is at best a primitive science because it is injecting into the blood stream foreign substances, chemical and genetic, that would otherwise not enter the body naturally. When we include into the equation the enormous amount of known and unknown genetic material and foreign proteins that vaccines introduce into the body, and then consider the rapid increase in epidemics raging across the American population—adult diabetes in children, large numbers of various inflammatory and immune deficiency diseases, asthma and new allergies, severe gastro-intestinal disorders (eg., leaky gut syndrome and Crohn’s Disease), chronic fatigue syndrome, and many different neurological disorders (eg., autism, ADD and ADHD, Parkinson’s, Alzheimer’s, etc.)—we must step back and reconsider their causes. We should avoid the kind of faith the vaccine industrial complex has in its determinist, reductionist perspective of genetic materialism to find these answers without taking into account the bombardment of toxic chemicals such as vaccine adjuvants and preservatives, extraneous genetic material, and pathogenic organisms and foreign genetic fragments that we assault our bodies from shortly after birth into old age…”
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=15452
~~
“In February, the Obama administration, siding with former President George W. Bush, tried to kill a lawsuit that sought to recover what could be millions of missing White House e-mails in a stunning reversal of Obama’s rhetoric about Bush secrecy on the campaign trail.
Two advocacy groups had sued the Executive Office of the President, including one of the groups that helped derail former House Speaker Tom DeLay. They said that large amounts of White House e-mail documenting Bush’s eight years in office were missing, and that the government needed to undertake an extensive recovery effort. The emails were seen as crucial as the “deleted” days include ones in the run up to the Iraq war and the outing of covert CIA officer Valerie Plame Wilson…”
http://rawstory.com/2009/10/obama-white-house-cant-find-or-wont-release-millions-of-bush-emails/
obviously, The AG isn’t the only “bag” Holder..
October 8th, 2009 at 6:53 pm
mobiaxis Says:
“. . . so why does he choose to act like such a deliberately ignorant douchebag?”
__________
He didn’t choose it — it’s what he is.
October 8th, 2009 at 7:11 pm
MEH-
thanks dude- right after i had my flu shot no less- comforting- and- oh yeah-
why would a sitting President want to set a precedent on openess and honesty- what goes around comes around – and if he agrees with the lawsuit- well then -where will that leave him in 2012 or 2016?
October 8th, 2009 at 7:24 pm
ahab,
sorry about the timing, though, FFR, it never hurts to wonder, like http://clusty.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&query=efficacy+of+flu+shot
these search engines are amazing tools, only if we use what we’ve developed..
~~
and, for the good news, “The federal budget deficit tripled to a record $1.4 trillion for the 2009 fiscal year that ended last week, congressional analysts said Wednesday.
The Congressional Budget Office estimate, while expected, is bad news for the White House and its allies in Congress as they press ahead with health care overhaul legislation that could cost $900 billion over the next decade.
The unprecedented flood of red ink flows from several factors, including a big drop in tax revenues due to the recession, $245 billion in emergency spending on the Wall Street bailout and the takeover of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Then there is almost $200 billion in costs from President Barack Obama’s economic stimulus bill, as well as increases in programs such as unemployment benefits and food stamps.
The previous record deficit was $459 billion and was set just last year.
http://cryptogon.com/?p=11494
October 8th, 2009 at 7:53 pm
week dollar conspiracy?
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/10/07/debunking_the_dumping_the_dollar_conspiracy
October 8th, 2009 at 8:32 pm
Simon Johnson on Timothy Geithner’s phone book:
http://baselinescenario.com/2009/10/08/too-politically-connected-to-fail-in-any-crisis/
October 8th, 2009 at 8:48 pm
The 10 Most Useful Online Tools Ever (Cluebert)…
“Bandwidth Exceeded”
One hopes they aren’t on their own list.
October 8th, 2009 at 8:57 pm
Concerning Scalia, nothing should be considered a surprise from a moron who credits the television show 24 as his guideline for rulings on torture.
October 8th, 2009 at 10:00 pm
@ Ras Hoffer
I dig that Cyptogon guy’s farming blog too. I appreciate his hustle.
October 8th, 2009 at 10:57 pm
Reading about the demise of jewish delis in NYT: A good read….
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/07/dining/07deli.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1&em
and problems with made-in-china dry wall damaging newly built homes: A must read!
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/08/business/08drywall.html?em
October 8th, 2009 at 11:16 pm
I can’t stand Scalia, but his opinions were the most entertaining to read in law school. The man is a brilliant, hypocritical whack-ball.
October 8th, 2009 at 11:54 pm
Key US lawmakers passed legislation Thursday extending three key provisions of the PATRIOT Act, the sweeping intelligence bill enacted after the September 11, 2001 attacks.
Backing a White House request, the Senate Judiciary Committee passed the measure 11 votes to 8 to extend until 2013 three clauses that would have expired by 31 December. The bill now heads to the full Senate for a vote.
The provisions include the “roving wiretap” clause, used to monitor mobile communications of individuals using multiple telephone lines, and the “lone-wolf” provision, which enables spying on individuals suspected of terrorist activity but with no obvious connection to extremist groups.
Lawmakers also extended the life of controversial section 215, known as the “library records provision” that allows government agencies to access individual’s library history..”
http://rawstory.com/2009/10/dem-controlled-senate-judiciary-committee-extends-patriot-act-provisions/
and, to wear this out, That’s ‘Change’ you can Believe in..
October 9th, 2009 at 12:22 am
I know u look at MSM for trend reversals how about this one : “Next asset bubble could come sooner than you think”
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Next-asset-bubble-could-come-apf-3960488317.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=
October 9th, 2009 at 2:01 am
Scalia’s tortuous logic: torture does not violate the 8th amendment barring cruel and unusual punishment as torture is not punishment at all.
October 9th, 2009 at 2:08 am
See the NYT article about these FHA borrowers?
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/09/business/09fha.html?em
One borrower has at least a 38% front end DTI, the other MADE MONEY (tax credit + cash back at closing > down payment) to buy a home and admits to not being able to afford it.
More here:
http://effectivedemand.blogspot.com/2009/10/how-are-these-fha-loans-being-made.html
We are throwing stupid people and taxpayer dollars in front of the housing bus in hopes of stopping it.
October 9th, 2009 at 7:13 am
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a5m72lBuBr3I
Treasuries Fall, Head for Weekly Loss, on Bernanke Rate Oulook
Ok, let’s say you run a community bank. Bernanke finally states the obvious….Would you would, or would you not be more likely to hold off making loans until rates go up? I mean, wouldn’t you be shooting yourself in a very exposed foot to make new loans today?
Just wondering….
October 9th, 2009 at 2:57 pm
For those concerned this will make perfect sense. Well, OK, sense. Everyone else may disregard.
I just received (verbatim) the following email…
Jimmy,
Many thanks for that. You are so wonderful for keeping me updated on many things.
Would you be so kind as to copy and paste my reactions on Andy’s blog:
I-Man was only partially correct about the slight. I left him and Ben22 out because I derived my list of “regulars” by browsing the comments on a specific post by Andy. But I did acknowledge I-Man being one of the Clubby Elitist Traders here, http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/afternoon-reading-8/#comment-223147
I am not getting ahab’s “Bros before Hos” thing. The guy posted a comment on Ritholtz dissing wide receivers’ fantasy value, then tried to trade freaking Roy Williams for a tight end that he desperately needs this week. If you don’t want someone to use what you are thinking against you, then don’t post it on the freaking Internet, because, OF COURSE, I AM TRYING TO DISRUPT HIS TRADE! I was willing to offer ahab a quality tight end in John Carlson just to switch defenses and kickers, but noooo, he has to try to swindle another guy’s tight end with freaking Roy Williams…in a ten-team league! Bros may be before Hos, BUT NOT BEFORE ME! That’s the American way.
Andy is a class act all the way. He still hasn’t fixed his secret problem — tipped off by his disinforming advice to The_Patriot_Way to pick up Johnny Knox off waivers at a time when Steve Smith and Mario Mannigham both just had monster games and were also available — and I later tried to box Andy in tradewise with my own propaganda campaign, but the man’s priority is creating a great traders blog, and that he has done I am very protective of my anonymity, so much as to give up certain sex with a couple of young, attractive women with whom I interact online, and thus highly unlikely to show up at Andy’s door uninvited. That is not my style in any case. However, if for whatever reason, I were to be a guest of Andy’s, I hope he has a Blue Moon or a German weissbier to offer The Great CNBC Sucks.
I have a feeling that I may have annoyed cvienne too much with my unceasing anti-cvienne character assassination, strategic and tactical tantrums, and general noise-and-confusion FF message board campaign. I am afraid I got a little carried away with the Sun Tzu. cvienne is an amazing brain and one of my two favorite posters on the Ritholtz blog (the other being ME), and I hope my efforts to destroy cvienne have not cost me his friendship and good will.
I will never post on Andy’ blog. Let pristine waters be pristine. More importantly, I am looking to diminish my online postings all around, so that I can devote more free time to the novel that I am writing.
You may have read the announcement of my most recent return to Lurkerville. I think this retirement will be the longest yet, and so the bridge is yours. You have a great weekend, Jimmy.
The Great CNBC Sucks
I mention in passing that nobody aside from family members have ever called me “Jimmy” — this is frightening on many levels…
October 9th, 2009 at 3:09 pm
@MEH — More on vaccines — http://www.whale.to/vaccines/ingredients.html
October 9th, 2009 at 3:55 pm
bergsten,
yes, it’s, too much, like that..
from, deeper w/in, your link : [Squalene is used in Chiron's MF59 adjuvant, and Glaxo's Monophosphoryl lipid A (MPL) and is the main factor in Gulf War Syndrome through the Anthrax vaccine. Now they want to poison everyone with squalene in the Swine flu vaccine.]
http://www.whale.to/v/squalene.html
and [2008] Is Aluminum the New Thimerosal? By Robert W. Sears
[Video] Mercury, Autism and the Global Vaccine Agenda David Ayoub, M.D.
http://www.whale.to/vaccines/ingredients.html
for some, nice, quick highlights..
~~
should it remain any wonder why these ‘vaccine’-firms wanted (legal) Immunity?
and, note, with that the full-court lie-athon presented by the MSM and ‘the administration(s)’ that it was for ‘National’/'Health’- ‘security’ reasons…
Fraud is, still, a Tort, no?