Comments on: Annotated Crude Oil http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/annotated-crude-oil/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Sun, 21 Mar 2010 11:38:09 -0400 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: frankinomaha http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/annotated-crude-oil/comment-page-1/#comment-229242 frankinomaha Sun, 25 Oct 2009 04:56:27 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=42032#comment-229242 Oil are we in a 4th or 5th elliot wave? OR was the 'wave 3' an "X" wave(abc)? if so are we now in an b wave of an abc down? Oil
are we in a 4th or 5th elliot wave?

OR was the ‘wave 3′ an “X” wave(abc)? if so are we now in an b wave of an abc down?

]]> By: frankinomaha http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/annotated-crude-oil/comment-page-1/#comment-229241 frankinomaha Sun, 25 Oct 2009 04:43:44 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=42032#comment-229241 Mr Singer: a) What does the oil chart look if it is plotted in $euro? would it flatten? or, if oil and$ euro are charted together, would they parallel ? b) the S&P chart, are we forming the right shoulder of an H&S? I 'was' predicting the S&P topping at 1140 (a 61.8% retracement from 667 on March 9) but now I wonder if we just topped out "may you live in interesting times" Mr Singer:
a) What does the oil chart look if it is plotted in $euro? would it flatten? or, if oil and$ euro are charted together, would they parallel ?
b) the S&P chart, are we forming the right shoulder of an H&S? I ‘was’ predicting the S&P topping at 1140 (a 61.8% retracement from 667 on March 9) but now I wonder if we just topped out

“may you live in interesting times”

]]> By: DiggidyDan http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/annotated-crude-oil/comment-page-1/#comment-228994 DiggidyDan Sat, 24 Oct 2009 04:11:38 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=42032#comment-228994 just to clarify, i guess i have to include CV, AT, and CN in the call http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/is-the-diving-dollar-driving-equities/#comment-200593 just to clarify, i guess i have to include CV, AT, and CN in the call
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/is-the-diving-dollar-driving-equities/#comment-200593

]]> By: www.wallstreetwrath.com http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/annotated-crude-oil/comment-page-1/#comment-228986 www.wallstreetwrath.com Sat, 24 Oct 2009 02:31:20 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=42032#comment-228986 who knows oil stocks may be the sector to hold up the market when everything else tanks. As we have learned ANYTHING can happen and oil stocks could even decouple from the price of NYMEX crude. If I've learned one thing recently is that rational, logical thinking is a fool's game in the market short term. who knows oil stocks may be the sector to hold up the market when everything else tanks. As we have learned ANYTHING can happen and oil stocks could even decouple from the price of NYMEX crude. If I’ve learned one thing recently is that rational, logical thinking is a fool’s game in the market short term.

]]> By: DiggidyDan http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/annotated-crude-oil/comment-page-1/#comment-228977 DiggidyDan Sat, 24 Oct 2009 01:39:00 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=42032#comment-228977 HW, i decided you were bullshitting us a couple of weeks ago, and lately, you have come around to sound arguments some of us (mainly ben, LB, karen, etc) have been espousing. I still don't know if you're bullshitting us, are a prop, or are coming around to the logical argument from exposure to us bears, but i like the debate better. I gave you props on staying long with stops and making money during the rally, and noted the inflection points along the way. Notice: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/09/annotated-dow-update/#comment-217148 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/09/thursday-reading-2/#comment-218893 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/09/annotated-nikkei/#comment-219414 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/09/friday-reading-2/#comment-219427 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/readings/#comment-225943 Seems we may have more in common these days than seems. As i have said, we will, see, and hubris always comes before the fall. Prudence is in the waiting for the trend reversal. Are you going short now? http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/wednesday-reads-102109/#comment-228276 HW, i decided you were bullshitting us a couple of weeks ago, and lately, you have come around to sound arguments some of us (mainly ben, LB, karen, etc) have been espousing. I still don’t know if you’re bullshitting us, are a prop, or are coming around to the logical argument from exposure to us bears, but i like the debate better. I gave you props on staying long with stops and making money during the rally, and noted the inflection points along the way. Notice:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/09/annotated-dow-update/#comment-217148
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/09/thursday-reading-2/#comment-218893
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/09/annotated-nikkei/#comment-219414
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/09/friday-reading-2/#comment-219427
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/readings/#comment-225943

Seems we may have more in common these days than seems. As i have said, we will, see, and hubris always comes before the fall. Prudence is in the waiting for the trend reversal. Are you going short now?
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/wednesday-reads-102109/#comment-228276

]]> By: ben22 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/annotated-crude-oil/comment-page-1/#comment-228925 ben22 Fri, 23 Oct 2009 22:46:36 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=42032#comment-228925 David, I have a hard time seeing that level on oil as well, time will tell. David,

I have a hard time seeing that level on oil as well, time will tell.

]]> By: HarryWanger http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/annotated-crude-oil/comment-page-1/#comment-228913 HarryWanger Fri, 23 Oct 2009 22:06:27 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=42032#comment-228913 HCF: Yes, I'm completely off the Dow going to 11,500. Two days ago I wrote on this very forum that I was selling all my AAPL at 207.5. I also talked about follow through and initiating a position in DXD. I went long DXD yesterday, a bit early but very confident in the position. I added today. You need look no further than the chart of the Dow right now. Pull up a daily chart for three months. The strongest volume has been on down days and they're happening with more frequency. Plus, all this "good" earnings news hasn't done a thing to move higher. Had every chance to do so and every "justification" to make that happen. It didn't. Don't know if we're exactly at our high right now but I'm sensing something very ugly in the market soon. HCF: Yes, I’m completely off the Dow going to 11,500. Two days ago I wrote on this very forum that I was selling all my AAPL at 207.5. I also talked about follow through and initiating a position in DXD. I went long DXD yesterday, a bit early but very confident in the position. I added today.

You need look no further than the chart of the Dow right now. Pull up a daily chart for three months. The strongest volume has been on down days and they’re happening with more frequency. Plus, all this “good” earnings news hasn’t done a thing to move higher. Had every chance to do so and every “justification” to make that happen. It didn’t. Don’t know if we’re exactly at our high right now but I’m sensing something very ugly in the market soon.

]]> By: SINGER http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/annotated-crude-oil/comment-page-1/#comment-228899 SINGER Fri, 23 Oct 2009 21:24:29 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=42032#comment-228899 @ben22 thanks... thing is... I don't really see Oil as in a bear market, whereas, stocks its more plausible... maybe if the rally from 11 to 147 is a wave 1, then wave 2 could bring us all the way back to 18... if thats the case, after the deflation passes wave 3 will be insane... i don't see 35 being taken out but you never know... @ben22

thanks…

thing is… I don’t really see Oil as in a bear market, whereas, stocks its more plausible…

maybe if the rally from 11 to 147 is a wave 1, then wave 2 could bring us all the way back to 18… if thats the case, after the deflation passes wave 3 will be insane…

i don’t see 35 being taken out but you never know…

]]> By: ben22 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/annotated-crude-oil/comment-page-1/#comment-228889 ben22 Fri, 23 Oct 2009 21:01:47 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=42032#comment-228889 @Singer, Prechter of course has very long counts on oil, if you are interested. His prediction, during P3 oil will trade below $18 bbl. The long counts look iffy to me, but that's jmo. @Singer,

Prechter of course has very long counts on oil, if you are interested. His prediction, during P3 oil will trade below $18 bbl.

The long counts look iffy to me, but that’s jmo.

]]> By: AlexInNC http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/annotated-crude-oil/comment-page-1/#comment-228882 AlexInNC Fri, 23 Oct 2009 20:49:39 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=42032#comment-228882 Best thing I've seen to get a true sense of where we're going w/r/t oil depletion is from Prof. Albert Bartlett (out of U of Colorado): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY He very clearly lays out how the impact of the exponential function affects our lives, esp. that we're using up resources (and oil in particular) at an ever-expanding rate. There's a total of eight videos and it takes a while to get through, but it is definitely worth it. I originally heard of this from Jeremy Grantham at GMO, one of the smartest investors out there. Best thing I’ve seen to get a true sense of where we’re going w/r/t oil depletion is from Prof. Albert Bartlett (out of U of Colorado): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY

He very clearly lays out how the impact of the exponential function affects our lives, esp. that we’re using up resources (and oil in particular) at an ever-expanding rate. There’s a total of eight videos and it takes a while to get through, but it is definitely worth it.

I originally heard of this from Jeremy Grantham at GMO, one of the smartest investors out there.

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