Comments on: Baltic Dry Index

By: zyzy

zyzy — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 17:37:32 +0000

@LeftBack:
“…. What you can’t do is invest for the long term – until you understand the macro environment…”
See , here i have one SMALL problem – ii’m actually losing money @ this time, exactly because im following the mind set that market should be moving down.

By: Baltic Dry Index

Baltic Dry Index — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 15:04:02 +0000

[...] below is a time series found at Barry Ritholtz’s blog which tracks the cost of moving goods via the [...]

By: leftback

leftback — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 23:27:55 +0000

Mainly short silver now and a few other commodities, b/c I think it is the most insane of the present bubbles.
Equities are an interesting show for the time being. The basic idea is not to be short the dollar at this moment.

All of the various long equity/precious metals/commodity/high yield bond/high yielding currency (AUD,NZD) trades are in essence ONE TRADE – shorting the dollar – here, b/c they are all driven by the liquidity pump operated by the Fed. The trade has been on for a long time and is crowded. It may continue.

The pump has supported the stocks of many bankrupt companies and others with no earnings whatsoever on a mark-to-market GAAP basis. What you think about that is up to you. You can certainly trade it, and I respect that opinion on a day-to-day basis. What you can’t do is invest for the long term – until you understand the macro environment and know the next move of the Fed. I do not believe we are in an overheated or even heating up economy, so I am therefore long the middle of the curve (5-year Treasuries).

By: zyzy

zyzy — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 22:55:07 +0000

@Thor and LeftBack:
if i understand you guys correctly, you are all short @ this time?
// why i seemed to never to be able to get a simple answer on my short question?

By: Patrick Neid

Patrick Neid — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 22:14:28 +0000

This chart is useless.

By: leftback

leftback — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 22:03:40 +0000

ZYZY…. let me explain this to you SLOWLY – in itty bitty words of one or two syllables.

You see, the mainstream economists are sort of a LAGGING INDICATOR. They only MAKE THE CALL when the EVENT is over, so that they CAN’T BE WRONG by being early, then it is at yahoo which NO-ONE READS.

IN other words, my end of the alphabet friend, this kind of tedious after-the-fact announcement from the ink-stained practitioners of the DISMAL SCIENCE is predictive of – nothing. NADA, ZILCH, DIDDLY SQUAT.

Go for a walk and look around, and you might learn a lot more about where we are headed.

By: The Curmudgeon

The Curmudgeon — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 20:40:23 +0000

The recession, you see, is over, so long as you count everything in those nastily-diluted and depreciating dollars. On a real (i.e., non-dollar-printing-government-statistical) basis, the recession, i.e., contraction in American living standards, has only just begun.

By: Thor

Thor — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 20:35:39 +0000

zyzy – That’s laughable. Are you for real? How many of the “top economists” saw this mess coming in the first place?

There is a difference between what the stock market is doing and what’s going on in the real economy. If you can’t see the difference you might want to broaden your evidence gathering.

By: zyzy

zyzy — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 20:30:43 +0000

@Steve
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Survey-of-top-economists-find-cnnm-202386183.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=
“Survey of top economists find most believe recession is over”
dow closed highest for the year. etc etc

I not necessary disagree with what you are saying. I just can’t see WHEN the trend will change. and i’ve been waiting since June/July…..

By: leftback

leftback — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 20:24:39 +0000

The WWI is bouncing back tremendously (WANGER WINDBAGGERY INDEX).