Comments on: Birth Death Adjustment Coming Under Fire http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/birth-death-adjustment-coming-under-fire/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Tue, 14 Feb 2012 23:28:32 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.5 By: Sunday links: hard knocks Abnormal Returns http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/birth-death-adjustment-coming-under-fire/comment-page-2/#comment-233125 Sunday links: hard knocks Abnormal Returns Sun, 08 Nov 2009 15:12:15 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=40097#comment-233125 [...] The BLS birth/death adjustment is back in the spotlight.  (Big Picture) [...] [...] The BLS birth/death adjustment is back in the spotlight.  (Big Picture) [...]

]]> By: hue http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/birth-death-adjustment-coming-under-fire/comment-page-2/#comment-222591 hue Mon, 05 Oct 2009 05:10:14 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=40097#comment-222591 Onlooker: the other huge misperception is that the 1929 crash caused the Depression. Not! the oncoming Depression caused the crash. Perhaps it won't play out like it did in 1930, (2009 may not be 1930 because the market didn't bounce back last year like in 1929) but after the market nosedived last fall, i'm astonished that people think it's over. i'm repeating myself, but just look at the Nasdaq or the Nikkei and where those two indexes are trading now compare to their tops. i just don't get it when people compare this year to 1938 or 1970s. the only time the market tanked and bounced back was 1987, but that was stock market crash, not economic crash. Things seem much worse now than 1987 or the 70s. (i'm just barely old enough to remember the 70s.) how can you say that this is the worse recession since the Depression, then compare the market now to the 70s? Onlooker: the other huge misperception is that the 1929 crash caused the Depression. Not! the oncoming Depression caused the crash. Perhaps it won’t play out like it did in 1930, (2009 may not be 1930 because the market didn’t bounce back last year like in 1929) but after the market nosedived last fall, i’m astonished that people think it’s over. i’m repeating myself, but just look at the Nasdaq or the Nikkei and where those two indexes are trading now compare to their tops. i just don’t get it when people compare this year to 1938 or 1970s. the only time the market tanked and bounced back was 1987, but that was stock market crash, not economic crash. Things seem much worse now than 1987 or the 70s. (i’m just barely old enough to remember the 70s.) how can you say that this is the worse recession since the Depression, then compare the market now to the 70s?

]]> By: PithyDog http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/birth-death-adjustment-coming-under-fire/comment-page-2/#comment-222563 PithyDog Mon, 05 Oct 2009 00:21:59 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=40097#comment-222563 To: X- Marks- The- Spot (MEH), Under the reign of J. Immelt the jingle currently rings "GE, We brought good things to life" http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2327901/posts http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOrcrWhryk0 The proof is in my GE stock in the last five years and decreased dividend price. Not to mention my two year old Profile frigidarium (Roman) whose ice maker is struggling to clunker out a cube here and there. Hope the links are live. To: X- Marks- The- Spot (MEH),

Under the reign of J. Immelt the jingle currently rings “GE, We brought good things to life”

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2327901/posts

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOrcrWhryk0

The proof is in my GE stock in the last five years and decreased dividend price. Not to mention my two year old Profile frigidarium (Roman) whose ice maker is struggling to clunker out a cube here and there.
Hope the links are live.

]]> By: Onlooker from Troy http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/birth-death-adjustment-coming-under-fire/comment-page-2/#comment-222522 Onlooker from Troy Sun, 04 Oct 2009 18:52:20 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=40097#comment-222522 hue Exactly. There are huge misperceptions and misunderstandings about the timeline of events and the evolution of the GD. At this time in 1930 which quite analogous to now (with much debate, I know) things weren't at the worst of the GD as so many perceive. It was just getting started. The market had bounced hugely and started back down again, there was much talk of the worst being over and a recovery ensuing, etc. So all those that say it's not as bad now as the GD because UE isn't 25% etc. are not worth listening to because they have their facts all skewed; either through ignorant or willfully for their own agenda. Most have probably seen this site, but just in case. It's very instructive to see the parallels. <a href="http://newsfrom1930.blogspot.com/" rel="nofollow">News from 1930</a> hue

Exactly. There are huge misperceptions and misunderstandings about the timeline of events and the evolution of the GD. At this time in 1930 which quite analogous to now (with much debate, I know) things weren’t at the worst of the GD as so many perceive. It was just getting started. The market had bounced hugely and started back down again, there was much talk of the worst being over and a recovery ensuing, etc. So all those that say it’s not as bad now as the GD because UE isn’t 25% etc. are not worth listening to because they have their facts all skewed; either through ignorant or willfully for their own agenda.

Most have probably seen this site, but just in case. It’s very instructive to see the parallels.
News from 1930

]]> By: Mark E Hoffer http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/birth-death-adjustment-coming-under-fire/comment-page-1/#comment-222521 Mark E Hoffer Sun, 04 Oct 2009 18:50:43 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=40097#comment-222521 Transor, he's, prob., thinking, if he that's what he calls it, ~"well, w/ my Gov't stipend, and Taxpayer funded bennies, as good as other things I've choosen swallow." ~~ and, as jc, above, points out, these guys http://www.trimtabs.com/global/index.htm provide a good service.. LSS: anyone who's buying based on, even, GS', publicly disseminated, 'Research', alone, is the Fish, to be shot, in the Barrel. http://www.thefreedictionary.com/barrel Transor,

he’s, prob., thinking, if he that’s what he calls it, ~”well, w/ my Gov’t stipend, and Taxpayer funded bennies, as good as other things I’ve choosen swallow.”
~~
and, as jc, above, points out, these guys http://www.trimtabs.com/global/index.htm provide a good service..

LSS: anyone who’s buying based on, even, GS’, publicly disseminated, ‘Research’, alone, is the Fish, to be shot, in the Barrel.
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/barrel

]]> By: Jojo http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/birth-death-adjustment-coming-under-fire/comment-page-1/#comment-222520 Jojo Sun, 04 Oct 2009 18:48:51 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=40097#comment-222520 WHAT course of action would the market, government, business and the consumer have taken if they had the correct/more accurate information? That is the real question... WHAT course of action would the market, government, business and the consumer have taken if they had the correct/more accurate information? That is the real question…

]]> By: Onlooker from Troy http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/birth-death-adjustment-coming-under-fire/comment-page-1/#comment-222519 Onlooker from Troy Sun, 04 Oct 2009 18:45:48 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=40097#comment-222519 whosonfirst said to F411: "If you don’t see that, you have nothing to add in these precincts." We established that a long time ago. :) whosonfirst said to F411: “If you don’t see that, you have nothing to add in these precincts.”

We established that a long time ago. :)

]]> By: Transor Z http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/birth-death-adjustment-coming-under-fire/comment-page-1/#comment-222517 Transor Z Sun, 04 Oct 2009 18:26:56 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=40097#comment-222517 Where's the guy who posted a comment last month on BDA and how we were obviously all ignorant and FOS about the BLS/Census methodology? To that chap I would like to politely inquire: How my ass taste? Where’s the guy who posted a comment last month on BDA and how we were obviously all ignorant and FOS about the BLS/Census methodology?

To that chap I would like to politely inquire: How my ass taste?

]]> By: jc http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/birth-death-adjustment-coming-under-fire/comment-page-1/#comment-222516 jc Sun, 04 Oct 2009 18:23:50 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=40097#comment-222516 According to Charles Biderman of trimtabs the B/D adjustment is just one of five flaws in the BLS estimate/revision/revision system Well, according to Biderman it’s down to five major shortcomings in the way the BLS compiles its statistics: 1. Changes in employment in the service sector are not fully captured. 2. Heavy seasonal adjustments often obscure trends in employment. 3. Employment growth at smaller companies and growth in self-employment are not fully captured. 4. The company “birth/death” adjustments are nothing more than educated guesses. 5. Only 60% of the survey for the latest month is complete. According to Charles Biderman of trimtabs the B/D adjustment is just one of five flaws in the BLS estimate/revision/revision system

Well, according to Biderman it’s down to five major shortcomings in the way the BLS compiles its statistics:

1. Changes in employment in the service sector are not fully captured.
2. Heavy seasonal adjustments often obscure trends in employment.
3. Employment growth at smaller companies and growth in self-employment are not fully captured.
4. The company “birth/death” adjustments are nothing more than educated guesses.
5. Only 60% of the survey for the latest month is complete.

]]> By: hue http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/birth-death-adjustment-coming-under-fire/comment-page-1/#comment-222512 hue Sun, 04 Oct 2009 17:52:49 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=40097#comment-222512 regarding soup lines: the Depression was a process over a decade, not a singular event. soup lines didn't form in 1930. when Japan started it's problem, it had much more savings than the US. we've been in a stealth Depression since 2001, masked by the Housing ATM. all of those phony jobs in the last boom related to the housing boom such as mortgage brokers (like myself for a few years) all have been wiped out in this downturn. regarding soup lines: the Depression was a process over a decade, not a singular event. soup lines didn’t form in 1930. when Japan started it’s problem, it had much more savings than the US. we’ve been in a stealth Depression since 2001, masked by the Housing ATM. all of those phony jobs in the last boom related to the housing boom such as mortgage brokers (like myself for a few years) all have been wiped out in this downturn.

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