Breakdown of Single Family Homes by Price
Later this morning, the Case Shiller Index gets released. In the meanwhile, let’s take a closer look at the breakdown of home sales by price. It is rather instructive as to the state of both the housing and credit markets:
This is a relatively new NAR data series, started several months ago. There’s no readily available history I was able to locate (anyone?). They don’t provide a data series I could see, so I had to cull the numbers from the Economists’ Commentary on their website. (No specific methodology details are given).
Regardless, what I was able to pull together (with the help of a friend) was shocking. In September 2009, single family home sale prices look like this:
21% less than $100k
49% $100K to $250k
22% $250 to $500K
5.6% $500k to $750K
1.3% $750k to $1m
1.3% $1M and up
Less than 10% of the homes sold in the US were > $500k. We know the high end has collapsed, but we are not disucssing multi-million dollar homes, mind you, but over $500k as a mere 8.2% of sales. I was surprised. (I wish we had data going back decades, which we could then normalize for inflation).
In September, 70% of transacted homes were priced under $250,000.
Check out the year-over-year growth rates — also astonishing:
Homes under $100k are up 22.5%
$100-$250 +6%
$250-$500 -5.2%
$500k-$750 +4.0%
$750-$1m -2.6%
$1M up -1.2%
In the West, home sales under $100k are up 116% in the past year. And total US SF is up 6.4% y-o-y.
Amazing stuff . . .
>
Source:
Existing Home Sales in September
Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist
NAR, October 23, 2009
http://www.realtor.org/research/economists_outlook/commentaries/ehs1009
October 27th, 2009 at 7:00 am
The housing market is very close to reaching the point of a self-sustaining recovery. When home values show consistent stabilization or even a slight increase, then the buyer fear-factor will no longer be at play. We are ever so close to reaching that self-propelling housing market recovery. But without an extension in the home buyer tax credit the housing market could face a double-dip recession.
October 27th, 2009 at 7:22 am
U.S. Regional Existing Home Sales Price Distribution (Table)
2009-10-23 14:44:16.85 GMT
By Alex Tanzi
Oct. 23 (Bloomberg) — Following is a summary of U.S.
distribution of sales and regional price ranges of existing
home sales in Sept. from the National Association of Realtors.
*T
==========================================================================
——————% change from 1-Year Ago——————
$0-100K $100-250K $250-500K $500-750K $750-1M $1M+
==========================================================================
U.S. 22.5% 6.0% -5.2% 4.0% -2.6% -1.2%
————————————————————————–
Northeast 4.9% 16.6% 2.7% -5.4% -8.0% -1.0%
Midwest 4.8% 4.0% 2.5% 15.0% -13.8% -15.4%
South 28.1% 6.0% -4.1% 1.3% -1.3% 1.3%
West 116.1% 2.7% -13.6% 9.2% 1.4% 0.2%
——————–Distribution of Sales——————–
U.S. 21.1% 48.5% 22.2% 5.6% 1.3% 1.3%
==========================================================================
*T
SOURCE: National Association of Realtors
October 27th, 2009 at 7:34 am
@Lawrence Yun:
A self-sustaining recovery…! Boy you are a riot. No wonder Barry gets fixated on you at times.
Well, let’s see…there are things that may interfere with your notion…rising interest rates…unless the big boys try to keep them in the freezer forever. Nations other than us are already tightening. Increasinng unemployment will continue for the next year, anyway. And many of us think the tax credit should be abolished anyway…distortions of markets for the benefit of a few tend to create ill will, just ask you friendly investment banker. It also appears states and cities are increasing property taxes…yes, I know. Not fair. But it is going to cost you more to own a home than it would have 3 years ago….probably a lot more.
A self-sustaining recovery…I guess I missed the alternative definition of self-sustaining…
October 27th, 2009 at 7:41 am
Why amazing? Amazing would be to see the difference between at the peak of the boom and now.
October 27th, 2009 at 7:56 am
but we are not disucssing multi-million dollar homes, mind you, but over $500k as a mere 8.2% of sales. I was surprised. (I wish we had data going back decades, which we could then normalize for inflation).
——–
Considering that something like only 5% make more than 120K per year, it’s not wonder less than 8% are over 500K.
If you want to save for retirement, 10-20K per year, you have 2 kids and a couple of cars, on a 120K salary, you should probably not even have a 300K mortgage.
October 27th, 2009 at 7:57 am
@ Mr. Yun:
The tax “credits” you find so crucial is rather scarry to me. Just like the cash for clunkers debacle which manipulated the market for ” a surge in sales”. I have a feeling a whole lot of people will be unable to make those new car payments in the near future.
And the gov. “bought” clunkers worth $500 for $4500.
Don’t these “credits” add to the deficit noosed around all of our necks?
So that a person has an incentive to buy a house now before this tax credit expires, who perhaps still cannnot really afford the mortgage payments.
Aren’t we getting it from the backend on these “tax incentives”.
Either one can afford a home or one cannot,no?
October 27th, 2009 at 8:00 am
@ Lawrence Yun
self sustaining and government subsidy are mutually exclusive
(PS I thought you were just a commenter and was curious about a person who would make such an argument and then clicked on your name)
I am truly in awe
October 27th, 2009 at 8:14 am
“Indiana: 500 Applicants for One $13 Per Hour Job Before Company Pulled Ad
October 25th, 2009
Via: New York Times:
As soon as the job opening was posted on the afternoon of Friday, July 10, the deluge began.
C.R. England, a nationwide trucking company, needed an administrative assistant for its bustling driver training school here. Responsibilities included data entry, assembling paperwork and making copies…”
http://cryptogon.com/?p=11853
~~
Shadow Market, Defiant Homeowners
October 26th, 2009
Via: Miller McCune:
It’s been almost a year since Horatio Bernard effectively lost his Baltimore row house to foreclosure and roughly 15 months since he last made a payment on his primary mortgage.
And yet to his amazement and those following his story, Bernard continues living in the home with his ailing mother without any sign of an eviction notice or word from his lender, in this case JP Morgan Chase and then US Bank.
“I haven’t paid a dime,” Bernard told me, sounding gleeful over the phone.
There’s even a chance Bernard could get to stay in his home a lot longer. That’s because like hundreds of thousands of other homeowners in America these days, Bernard falls into what real estate experts call a shadow market, the growing backlog of foreclosures and bank-owned properties yet to reach real estate markets…
http://cryptogon.com/?p=11875
~~
Detroit Attempts to Auction 9,000 Properties for as Little as $500; 80% Had No Bids
October 26th, 2009
Via: Reuters:
In a crowded ballroom next to a bankrupt casino, what remains of the Detroit property market was being picked over by speculators and mostly discarded.
After five hours of calling out a drumbeat of “no bid” for properties listed in an auction book as thick as a city phone directory, the energy of the county auctioneer began to flag…”
http://cryptogon.com/?p=11863
~~
Yep, that’s some kind of self-sustaining..
October 27th, 2009 at 8:20 am
Lawrence Yun Goes To Hollywood
Larry Baby, this “Fear Factor” could be the start of something big, really big. This could be bigger than “Balloon Boy.” I, of course, will be your executive producer.
Why, I see a whole genre of shows… a whole sub-demographic… where we put people on, in their own lives, and humiliate them. Make ‘em buy houses, live in ‘em and stuff like that. We show them a bunch of statistics and… go for the close up. We could call it, like, a reality show.
Larry Baby, a lot of people in this town say “Hey, you’re the greatest” but hey, you’re the greatest.
October 27th, 2009 at 8:21 am
Those figures fit what I observe in the San Fernando Valley area of Los Angeles. It’s a sellers’ market (multiple offers) for anything under $400,000 because the inventory is at about 3 months. A balanced market is at 6 months. I have clients looking in the $500,000-$750,000 range, but not likely to buy anything yet because they’re waiting for the alt-a, option arm wave to bring prices down. Hard to know what the banks are going to do with all those bad loans. Right now, they’re letting people stay in their homes even though they are a year or two behind on their payments. Banks would rather let them stay than have to acknowledge all those losses by foreclosing.
October 27th, 2009 at 8:30 am
The housing market is nowhere near a self-sustaining recovery.
I’m also curious about the ’shock’ of the low number of houses sold over $500,000. Maybe somebody needs to get out more and see how the other 95% live.
October 27th, 2009 at 8:31 am
@VennData:
Venn, just wondering how you think these government sustained markets are supposed to work? You know, it is not going to work the way leftists like it…it just won’t. Whether housing or medicine.
This is just the public option for housing. Continue tax credits and make someone else pay.
You could wind up working past 65 just to afford your house and your health insurance. Try to get your something for nothing ideas back on the back burner where they belong.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/10/27/news/economy/healthcare_medicare_doctors/index.htm
Seniors squeezed as doctors shun Medicare
If a proposed 21% cut in payment rates goes through in 2010, it could spark a physician boycott against new enrollees.
“Wilt and his colleagues say they are shunning the area’s growing senior population because they believe Medicare doesn’t reimburse physicians enough to cover the cost of care.
“And if Medicare further cuts its reimbursement rates, then we’ll be functioning at a loss,” said Wilt.”
…Yun, Obama…these guys who think government decree will make things work the way they desire have to understand that the rest of us don’t think much of these offerings…
October 27th, 2009 at 8:33 am
The self-sustaining housing recovery will fit right in with the self-sustaining easy-credit financing recovery and the self-sustaining job market recovery.
October 27th, 2009 at 8:40 am
Lawrence Yun wrote “The housing market is very close to reaching the point of a self-sustaining recovery. ”
Define “recovery” please.
Also, can you provide your estimated range of future values (1-3 years) for mortgage rates, unemployment, Alt-A and Option ARM recasts/resets, foreclosures, shadow inventory and also break this down at the price points referenced across and within regions?
Assuming you have run the numbers using different assumptions baked in so would be helpful to know what your best to worst case estimates look like.
Thanks…some context is always helpful.
October 27th, 2009 at 9:17 am
I don’t know how useful that data is given the failure to account for condo sales. I presume exactly zero SFH are sold in NYC between $500-$750K, and just a handful in metro San Franscisco/DC. You’ll find more on the northside of Chicago, but the land alone is probably worth almost $500K.
I would think the “housing” market in large cities is completely defined by the condo market.
October 27th, 2009 at 9:26 am
danm and others are right – should not be that shocking to anyone (or anyone outside of NY/NJ/CT and CA) that less than 10% of home sales are over $500K, when 99% of Americans have less than $450K of annual income.
what has been more shocking over the last 10 years has been how many banks let people (esp. in CA/FL/NV) buy their first home for 4X/5X/6X, etc. of their annual income with 0-5-10% down and interest only loans…
October 27th, 2009 at 9:47 am
Feedburner=72000 readers!
At this rate, you’re going to need to go all MceeDs on us and get a Big Yellow “TBP” with the caption: “Billions and Billions Served”.
October 27th, 2009 at 9:50 am
Let’s think for a moment…70% of September sales $250,00 and under. Well of course! The $8,000 credit almost covers the down payment in this range (FHA 3.5%.) Now with a $15,000 credit we can start to move some of those @ $500,000.
Give me a break…
October 27th, 2009 at 9:50 am
@Lawrence Yun
Self-sustaining recovery? I think the word you are looking for is “self-serving”…
October 27th, 2009 at 10:02 am
stop to think–a house costing 100k at 6% is 6k a year, plus tax and amortization means less than 1k a month–cheaper than renting and probably better.
a no brainer at that price–all you have to do is qualify for a mortgage.
October 27th, 2009 at 10:29 am
The housing market is very close to reaching the point of a self-sustaining recovery. When home values show consistent stabilization or even a slight increase, then the buyer fear-factor will no longer be at play. We are ever so close to reaching that self-propelling housing market recovery. But without an extension in the home buyer tax credit the housing market could face a double-dip recession.
So glad to hear the workers’ glorious Five Year Plan is working out, Larry.
But I think I’m just going to content myself by highlighting the glaring subtext in your spammy spin:
WE’RE NOT THERE YET
Can you hear me barkin’ there, big dog? Are you pickin up what I’m puttin’ down?
I didn’t think so.
October 27th, 2009 at 10:32 am
Wow! Somehow I don’t think that is really Lawrence Yun. Hopefully BR can definitely tell us if we’ve been visited by the one and only.
October 27th, 2009 at 10:34 am
Lawrence Yun. That’s brilliant and hilarious!
October 27th, 2009 at 10:37 am
@Lawrence Yun (is this really you, or a joke?)
“The housing market is very close to reaching the point of a self-sustaining recovery”
Self-sustaining? You mean TAXPAYER-sustaining. You call yourself and economist. What a joke. You are most definitely not interested in the pursuit of truth, you rank charlatan. Do you really think that with your track record, your comments would be welcome by readers on this website with half a brain?
Why don’t you go shill for the market on MSNBC or elsewhere where you’re bound to find much less intellectual resistance to your brand of snake oil. Better yet, stop suborning our public officials with your organization’s ill-gotten gains and get your selfish special interests OUT OF OUR NATION’S POLITICAL AGENDA.
For the rest of you who think I’m going to far with that last comment – just feast your eyes on the following:
“The National Association of Realtors, which boasts an in-house staff of 20–plus lobbyists and ranks as the ninth all-time leading spender on lobbying, has filed more lobbying reports on health issues than any topic but one, taxes, this year. The 1.2 million-member association is No. 8 among top lobbying spenders this year. NAR spent $5.8 million in the first three months of 2009 alone, retaining the prominent firm Quinn Gillespie & Associates to complement the internal staff. NAR also stands third among the top 100 donors in federal politics during the past 20 years, spending $4.3 million last election cycle and $35 million since 1989. During the 2008 campaign, 58 percent of NAR’s contributions went to Democrats.”
http://www.opensecrets.org/news/2009/07/unlikely-groups-enter-federal.html
October 27th, 2009 at 10:40 am
Hal — but what the heck does one get for less than 100k? Especially some of these properties where no occupant has really given a damn about maintaining them?
October 27th, 2009 at 10:48 am
I am amazed that banks are lending again on mortgages, but I shouldn’t be because the gubment is basically underwriting all of it. Heck, they were before all of this mess happened for a large chunk of mortgages.
What I want to know is, nationally, why hasn’t there been more publicized talk of across the board debt write-downs on properties and the associated notes that will never reach those prices again? This seems like an idea that would have saved a lot of people in their homes, which I know isn’t the most important thing here. See, to me, if there is a large scale write down of the value of my property, and then a forgiveness of some part of my note (nontaxable, of course), the government takes some of that money they pissed away to the banks and helps TWO parties, the homeowner and the bank, not just the bank.
Again, I know the little guy isn’t the one we are truly trying to help here. I live in a eutopian world, in my mind
. I also think, in my mind, that Kate Beckinsale would find me maddingly witty and devastatingly handsome, should we per chance to meet. 
October 27th, 2009 at 10:50 am
The jumbo loan market is very sensitive to $8k tax credits. I can’t believe I actually thought that was Yun. I’ve been Punk’d. Nice!
October 27th, 2009 at 10:58 am
“Lawrence Yun, NAR senior economist, said a good buyers’ market has evolved.”
http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2007/hef_july07_housing_prices_recover.html
October 27th, 2009 at 11:16 am
[...] here: Breakdown of Single Family Homes by Price | The Big Picture Share and [...]
October 27th, 2009 at 12:22 pm
I think Barry’s pulling our leg here. Mr. Yun wouldn’t dare venture into the hornets nest, now would he?
October 27th, 2009 at 1:03 pm
@Yun
Does somebody actually pay you to be a tool?
If so, where can I apply for that job?
October 27th, 2009 at 1:22 pm
It IS a direct quote from Yun’s statement though.
October 28th, 2009 at 9:23 am
[...] friend Barry Ritholtz over at Big Picture does a very interesting analysis on the high end of the market showing that it now only represents [...]
October 29th, 2009 at 5:54 pm
Hi, This is Todd Carpenter. I’m the Social Media Manager at NAR. Just for the clarification of some of the commentators asking here, Lawrence did not post the above comment attributed to him. They are his words, but someone else posted them to this blog.