Wow, here is something we haven’t had to write about in a long while — new highs in Crude Oil. (Gee, I wonder if the shrinking dollar has anything to do with this?)
Source: Barcharts
>
Truly the cruelest tax . . .
While yesterday's US stock market close was poor, Asia and Europe didn't follow today as debt in Greece, Spain, Portugal, etc... rallied, their CDS narrowed and stocks bounced. The Greek finance minister said January tax revenues came in above expectations and that spending was below target for the month and said "that means the deficit reduction for January is well within what we have promised." The euro is rising in turn. Also helping is the story that Trichet is headed to the European Union leaders summit a day early in order to address Greece's problems even as the Greek finance...
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October 21st, 2009 at 1:55 pm
the effect of this “tax” cancels out the entire effect of the stimulus.
wasn’t congress going to do something about this a year ago?
October 21st, 2009 at 1:58 pm
Gas here up about 30 cents in the last 6 weeks.
I do love my Prius.
We also posted about how refiners were now at about 80% of capicity…..this is a significant decline…
…I’m not saying…I’m just saying…
October 21st, 2009 at 1:59 pm
DXY just fell under 75 bucks. Falling fast today. Indices pretty tame though. But we still have Beige Book comments. Maybe market is starting to fear a rapidly falling dollar now?
October 21st, 2009 at 2:07 pm
Harry, a truly rapidly falling dollar would invite intervention from the Fed in the shape of a hike. This reminds me of last summer, oil is off to the races and into full parabolic mode, before BR said “high prices are the cure for high prices”, and the bubble was popped. Demand destruction will set in again soon.
October 21st, 2009 at 2:07 pm
Barry, you just listed the falling dollar as one of the market’s shibboleths.
~~~
BR: Its been a driver!
October 21st, 2009 at 2:08 pm
And climbing, nearly $82 now. Nah, it couldn’t have anything to do with the USD. It’s them damn oil speculators. lol
October 21st, 2009 at 2:11 pm
I thought a rapidly falling dollar was good for markets, even if it means they aren’t really going anywhere?
Of course, dollars are priced in oil. 2007 redux, courtesy of the Fed’s printing presses. But I’m quite sure this will end better than it did the last time Goldman doled out half a million or so per employee in bonuses.
Anytime you have rising prices in the face of declining demand, well you best start look at the metric by which values are measured, i.e., in this case, the dollars. “Inflation subdued” my ass.
October 21st, 2009 at 2:13 pm
leftback: Like I said earlier, the boom/bust/booms are happening in faster and faster sequences. Wonder how far the markets will make it before the bust happens? I’ve been hoping for 11,500 but keeping my finger on the trigger.
October 21st, 2009 at 2:14 pm
LB-
According to the Beige Book there isn’t any demand to destroy. It cited lack of demand being responsible for high oil inventory.
I wouldn’t worry about the price of oil though. Unemployed people don’t have to put gas in their cars to get to work, so they will have more money to buy ipods. Green Shoot!
October 21st, 2009 at 2:14 pm
A little bit above $75, I switched my oil position from short (SCO) to a long position (USO). I’m very glad I did, since I don’t like getting probed in the rear end on a daily basis by Mr. Market. I think that the oil market is getting detached from the oil fundamentals and attaching onto the “dollar goes down forever” trade. I got tired of fighting that…
HCF
October 21st, 2009 at 2:21 pm
i remember at $42 i was being greedy saying i’ll wait until $35 and get me some. still waiting…..
October 21st, 2009 at 2:22 pm
The dollar ’s move to 72 won’t juice the us markets like they hope. Too much gas, no brakes, too much cliff. ‘Where the hell is my second derivative?’ [Benjy realizes he sold it for one last puff on the crack pipe and a weak smile flickers across his lips. "Going to Carolina in My Mind...."]
October 21st, 2009 at 2:23 pm
Sold my entire AAPL position today at 207.50. Seems ridiculously out of hand now despite that fact that everyone on the planet somehow keeps managing to buy new iphones and ipods.
MRegan: Dollar at 72 isn’t going to juice the markets much further. Seems the market is starting to figure that out a bit today.
October 21st, 2009 at 2:25 pm
I’ve been in long position of XLE since $67.00, so a small margin made so far. Wondering when this bubble bursts. Certainly it won’t go back to $147, will it?
Aside from that, great blog going here, BR. I was registered last year as ashpelham, but lost my job with the big retirement plan administrator headquartered in the fine fields of Iowa. Therein lies the problem with my registration: I used my work email as my contact to log in here. Now, with a mighty fine bank hq’d in the deep, deep South, birthplace of The King.
I am glad to be back, and hope to offer a glimmer of the great insight and banter that I’ve found on this blog over the past 18 months. Daily reader, sometimes hourly, depending on how business is going
!
October 21st, 2009 at 2:26 pm
I think this will ultimately put pressure on Mr. B.B., more than anything else will.
October 21st, 2009 at 2:27 pm
May I suggest that the price of oil is a reflection of the impact it’s use has on the world. Rather than looking at the price of oil as a tax, maybe we should look at it as a reflection of the true cost the extracting, and use of oil, on the planet. As the easily obtainable oil supplies continues to dwindle, would it not be expected that the price rise even further?
Markets are very good at pushing us away from old, worn out ideas, to newer better ideas, via the mechanism of price. Maybe the market (as always) is pushing us to a better place……use less oil, find better (and cheaper) ways. It wont happen overnight, but consistently high priced oil will eventually drive discoveries of other means of energy. Then, maybe, the price of oil will collapse?
October 21st, 2009 at 2:31 pm
For those of you who have accused Wanger of being a permabull, I note that he is a seller today . . .
October 21st, 2009 at 2:33 pm
Harry,
Look, you and I look at things way different, but if indeed you had AAPL, then why sell it all today? Put your stop under it and quit looking at it. Most of us “lose” more money by selling too early than by holding on to losers. Check it in a few weeks, if it makes money, move your stop up, if it sold…fine.
but don’t sell on a feeling…let the market do it for you.
October 21st, 2009 at 2:38 pm
We’re out of oil again, quick let’s drill in Alaska !!
October 21st, 2009 at 2:41 pm
@Harry:
I’ve been as much of a critic of you as any, but I have to admit that I have to admire that you have actually sold something that you were bullish on. AAPL broke way above its upper channel line today, so unless it starts going up at a much higher (and unsustainable) slope, it’s likely to come back down to trend in the interim.
HCF
October 21st, 2009 at 2:45 pm
Oh brother, I can hear the Peak Oil wackos firing up their hot air machines again.
Alas, Bruce in Tn, I think most lose money doing both selling to early and holding onto losers. Personally I have an uncanny ability to buy at the peaks and sell the dips. So long as I stay a little ahead of where I started I guess that is OK.
October 21st, 2009 at 2:48 pm
Bruce: I’ve been holding and adding AAPL since about the 102 level. Averaged out at 145 and change. Something strange in the air today. I recall holding AAPL last September I believe and it gapped 15 points lower on the open. Don’t remember what caused it but my stop got blown past on the gap down. With a beta stock like AAPL I’m very happy to take this profit now.
October 21st, 2009 at 2:50 pm
i’ve had AAPL at $90 and GS at $78 for a while now. big deal you don’t see me bragging about it. that’ s because i’m humble and i have far more scars than feathers.
October 21st, 2009 at 2:50 pm
“We’re out of oil again, quick let’s drill in Alaska !!”
Where is Sarah Palin when you need to drill, drill, drill?
October 21st, 2009 at 2:54 pm
Perhaps this guy can also explain how higher oil prices (cheaper dollars) eventually trickle down such that everyone benefits:
Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) — A Goldman Sachs International adviser defended compensation in the finance industry as his company plans a near-record year for pay, saying the spending will help boost the economy.
“We have to tolerate the inequality as a way to achieve greater prosperity and opportunity for all,” Brian Griffiths, who was a special adviser to former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, said yesterday at a panel discussion at St. Paul’s Cathedral in London.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=amGn6lOXMlNQ
~I wonder how many barrels of oil the average Goldman employee can buy with the level of bonuses today as opposed to 2007?
October 21st, 2009 at 2:55 pm
Oil at 83/barrel in the worst recession since the GD. Yeah, that’s totally normal. Why do I get the feeling that Ben & co didn’t exactly have THIS in mind when reflating the bubble? He has to be at least a little worried, right? Maybe? Perhaps?
October 21st, 2009 at 2:55 pm
Sorry, 81. I was forecasting out another day or two, when it will likely hit 83 and beyond. That should do wonders for the economy.
October 21st, 2009 at 2:56 pm
Rikky: I’m not bragging, just stating that I sold and why that’s all. Also stated that I got burned in it last September.
Regarding oil: look at the airlines today; AMR, Continental. They’re not doing so well and now just got smacked with a new HOY in oil.
October 21st, 2009 at 2:57 pm
i seem to recall there was a monster find in the Bakken field last year waiting to be plucked. where’s all that oil?
October 21st, 2009 at 2:58 pm
@jeff: In Lloyd’s basement?
October 21st, 2009 at 2:59 pm
“We have to tolerate the inequality as a way to achieve greater prosperity and opportunity for all,”
Cut me a check. I’m in a hurry.
October 21st, 2009 at 2:59 pm
hey BR-
i think HW has been rightly identified as being mentally challenged- permabull or not-
maybe you’re Wanger? having a laugh at the expense of your loyal posters
October 21st, 2009 at 3:02 pm
pat g-
that headline from Bloomberg is funny-
“inequlity so we can prosper”-
as a capaign slogan it would be a real winner
October 21st, 2009 at 3:04 pm
@ahab: I thought the same thing – maybe Barry and Harry are one and the same?
That “inequality so we can prosper” is utter clap trap. What will they think of next to sell to the Sheeple?
October 21st, 2009 at 3:05 pm
Man, those Goldman guys just do NOT get it. Listening to Bloomberg at lunch, Hayes Reporting, and interviewed a headhunter there in Manhattan that specializes in bank folks. Said that they bonuses are “justified and necessary” to “retain talent” lest that talent “go into other places”. Hayes jumped all over that one. She quipped about “where would they go with 10% national unemployment?”. It was great. Guess you had to be in my 2001 Acura with 176 billion miles on the odometer to get it….
October 21st, 2009 at 3:08 pm
Mannwich: No, BR and Harry are not the same person. HW is 47, owns a small business based in Mpls, lives in Seattle, travels frequently for business. Who knows, you may actually run into me in Mpls. I’ll be there frequently in the next three months. It’s our busy time of year.
October 21st, 2009 at 3:10 pm
@ Manny
That “inequality so we can prosper” is the same clap trap they use for cutting corporate taxes and capital gains. Hasn’t worked very well, so far.
October 21st, 2009 at 3:12 pm
@HW: I know you’re not. Just messing with you a bit. Now wouldn’t that be something? Wouldn’t be surprised though. This is a pretty small city and if you’re hitting Broder’s quite a bit, I may see you there (of course, neither of us would now that).
Bring your hat, gloves and long underwear. I’m sure you’ve been here in January, so you know what it’s like, but it ain’t that pleasant.
October 21st, 2009 at 3:12 pm
manny-
been some bizarre and strange stuff happening here at the ol’ TBP- some comments- as I and Karen have alluded to at Andy’s- have been “out of the blue” and downright bizarre-
maybe the market has everyone in a spell
October 21st, 2009 at 3:12 pm
That’s would KNOW that……good grief. Careless with the typing. I think I’m losing focus.
October 21st, 2009 at 3:17 pm
Mannwich: I’ll let you know next time I’m in town. I always go to Broder’s when I’m there – if I can get in. Can’t use the $20 Esquire bit either, they know me too well. They’ll just take it and laugh and I’ll still have a 2 hour wait.
On another note, anyone read that Farrell article at MW yesterday on the collapse of the US? Just curious what people thought.
October 21st, 2009 at 3:22 pm
@HW: I find the key to getting in there with little wait is to eat after 7:30-8 p.m. For some reason, the locals like to eat dinner really early here. Part of that is probably due to being a neighborhood restaurant. If you later, you’ll usually have little to no wait. They do have great pasta though. Homemade and very fresh.
October 21st, 2009 at 3:22 pm
HW I read that article. I thought it lacked a lot of substance. It’s another cry for wolf if you ask me.
Haven’t we digested enough negative information over the past 2 years without someone crying that Rome is burning now? Duh! We can see that. His whole argument was that capitalism in it’s truest form is dead. Nothing we didn’t already know.
October 21st, 2009 at 3:26 pm
This is not good. Living standards fall. The vicious spiral begins. Dollar down and commodities up. And it is all in the cards. Not much we can do about it. Thank your local investment banker for hollowing out and then bankrupting our economy. Write him a note, he is probably vacationing in the Riviera.
October 21st, 2009 at 3:28 pm
@bsneath: Uncle Ben can stop debauching the dollar. That would help. But of course “the markets” won’t like that, so he won’t do it. We all kneel down before the market God. We are not worthy, we are not worthy.
October 21st, 2009 at 3:29 pm
U.S. to Order Steep Pay Cuts at Firms That Got Most Aid
Responding to the growing furor over the paychecks of
executives at companies that received billions of dollars in
federal bailouts, the Obama administration will order the
companies that received the most aid to deeply slash the
compensation to their highest paid executives, an official
involved in the decision said on Wednesday.
Starting to worry about the mid term elections
The banks will rush to pay back US funds just as the shit hits the fan again with mortgages, commercial lending and credit cards. The guys at the top wsnt their money regardless of the consequences, we’ve already seen that
October 21st, 2009 at 3:31 pm
Interesting little late day sell off here. When was the last time we saw anything remotely close? Of course, there’s still 30 minutes left.
October 21st, 2009 at 3:32 pm
alright BR-
let’s hear your call- will you go out on a limb like Kass- and call a top in REAL TIME-
c’mon- you can do it-
worst that can happen is you’ll be wrong- like Kass- who has had a few top calls- but he is not afraid to put it out there
October 21st, 2009 at 3:33 pm
Cold winter forecast in the Northeast and midwest where home heating fuel is used, really cold winter is forecast in thoe areas too. Nice combo. Another tough nut for people out of work squeaking buy on unemployment. They can just mull the words of that GS jerk while they shiver…
October 21st, 2009 at 3:33 pm
I still am blown away at how this stuff does not make regular conversation, regardless of the group of people I find myself surrounded by. Of course, the wife and kids at home could care less. Of course most of the guys I ride bikes with would rather talk about bike parts and races, and of course the football fans I spend Saturdays with would rather talk football. Why doesn’t the continued assault on middle class America garner more media attention, other than people like Lou Dobbs and Glenn Beck making butwholes (sic) of themselves?
I guess it is true that as long as we have the latest iThingy to play with, we are comfortably numb, thanks to P. Floyd…
October 21st, 2009 at 3:34 pm
Mannwich: Really interesting. Day seemed weird right away with the dollar and oil. That’s why I dumped all my AAPL. Market isn’t really reacting well to earnings no matter how much they’re being pumped. Just glad the CNBC gang is keeping those Dow 10,000 hats handy.
October 21st, 2009 at 3:36 pm
The market Gods seem to be throwing a tantrum. Maybe they don’t like that news today about executive compensation cuts about bailed out firms and decided to show the O man who’s boss?
@HW: You and I actually agree on something! Definitely a weird day. I think it was probably wise to take your profits in AAPL, but what do I know? I’ve been wrong a lot lately on the Little Picture.
October 21st, 2009 at 3:37 pm
@ash: That’s the problem, IMO. We are comfortably numb to everything that’s going on and don’t seem to realize that these things could, and probably WILL, change our very way of life in this country. But as long as we have our I-Thingy’s, I guess it’s no biggie.
October 21st, 2009 at 3:38 pm
Pretty impressive volume on that sell off on the Dow as well. Look at the minute chart. Amazing rush of volume on that downturn.
October 21st, 2009 at 3:38 pm
jc-
dude- get with it- you obviously missed the new mantra-
“pay inequality so we can prosper”
we can not get our small sliver until they get the whole pie-
simplicity itself
October 21st, 2009 at 3:38 pm
It’s begun. Pay limits. Merv the Swerve talking about bank break-ups. SELL ‘EM LLOYD…. even Harry was cautious today. Someone made a top call today – wonder if that will turn out to be correct?
October 21st, 2009 at 3:39 pm
One should note that the HW we are seeing post today is not the same HW we usually see here. Today’s HW is much more in line with the HW that was posting several weeks ago when the markets tanked and he sold most of his positions.
October 21st, 2009 at 3:39 pm
Bring in the clowns……I mean the dip buyers.
October 21st, 2009 at 3:42 pm
Thor: Something seemed and seems very strange today. I’m starting to get the feeling that the “mini economic boom” is already priced in this market and that the looming bust on the other end is rearing its ugly head a bit.
October 21st, 2009 at 3:43 pm
Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) — A successful recovery for General Motors Co. and Chrysler Group LLC is “far from assured” and will take time, the former head of the federal government’s auto task force said. Think they’ll have trouble selling Chrysler assembled Fiats duuuh?
If Mercedes couldn’t whip Chrysler into shape and Renault failed with little AMC then Fiat will need a miracle with C. GM is just gushing cash at these sales levels, they need to dump all their retirees on US and I’m sure they will eventually.
October 21st, 2009 at 3:44 pm
Thor, you think Hairy Wanker is the canary in the cage?
October 21st, 2009 at 3:44 pm
Tepid response to AApl yesterday should have given second thoughts to all of the bullish persuasion. Pretty easy to see some profit taking here. As to the Bakken take a look at the opportunists at USEG.
October 21st, 2009 at 3:44 pm
HW – *faint* I actually agree with you too
October 21st, 2009 at 3:44 pm
If this pace of selling continues into the close, tomorrow could be very, very ugly. Remember, there is a lot of cheap protection on the way down here for many. That could slow the decline. But really, all these guys who talk about buying cheap puts on low VIX – how many really do it?
October 21st, 2009 at 3:45 pm
Karen’s Top™ call came out today- as did Kass’s Top-
who’s top we talking about?
October 21st, 2009 at 3:48 pm
I see the problems with Social Security in this country being analagous to the problems that GM has. Who will lead the US into bankruptcy and, in 8 days, back out again, without having to pay our “legacy” costs?
Maybe the Saudis, who no doubt are dancing in the streets again? Did anyone hear the OPEC oil minister say that they were “uncomfortable” with $100bbl crude? We wouldn’t want them to be “uncomfortable” would we?!
October 21st, 2009 at 3:48 pm
I’d be happy to sell you some of my RTH puts that I bought on Monday…
PSYCH!
I’ll be holding those dear for awhile…
October 21st, 2009 at 3:48 pm
Ahab – that’s your best user icon yet!
October 21st, 2009 at 3:48 pm
Keep an eye on the volume, chaps. The indices are leading the way down from Karen’s Top™.
Harry’s very own Soaring Eagle Leveraged Long Only Flagship Fund™ (SELLOFF) might be distributing….
October 21st, 2009 at 3:49 pm
Bove changed his rating on Wells to Sell. Freaking the market out. That’s the scary part of the market right now, doesn’t take much to pull the rug out quickly. I’ll give credit to Karen on the top call (if it turns out to be), Dougie made his a couple of weeks ago.
October 21st, 2009 at 3:51 pm
“Administration plans big pay cuts at bailout firms”
wow- and i was just coming around to the the “pay inequality so we can prosper” mantra
October 21st, 2009 at 3:52 pm
HW said: “That’s the scary part of the market right now, doesn’t take much to pull the rug out quickly.”
Not exactly a sure sign of a truly healthy market, is it? Not exactly the makings for a healthy economy either, nevermind a “mini boom”.
October 21st, 2009 at 3:52 pm
Ahab – was just reading that, what the hell? Were we all transported into an alternative universe overnight? One where things seem to make more logical sense?
October 21st, 2009 at 3:52 pm
I wondering if this is the beginning of our own “hell to pay” for bad behavior:
weak dollar, high oil, falling stocks… yikes!
So can the weak dollar/soaring stocks rally continue forever? I guess we’ll see…
HCF
October 21st, 2009 at 3:55 pm
@HCF: Me-thinks we may be reaching the tipping point where a weak dollar actually hurts the markets. Oil at these prices in this economy cannot be a good way to stimulate a true recovery.
October 21st, 2009 at 3:57 pm
Mannwich: we could be. IMO I didn’t think that could adversely affect the market until the 72 level. But today when the dollar started sinking fast and the market just stood there doing nothing, felt like a warning shot.
October 21st, 2009 at 3:58 pm
Kass said the market would finish in the red today-
Thor-
yeah man- Cartman’s pretty cool- not an American flag or anything- but I try
October 21st, 2009 at 3:58 pm
@Mannwich:
You mean Joe Sixpack being unemployed AND having to pay $4/gallon to fill up is bad? =)
HCF
October 21st, 2009 at 4:00 pm
What did I say about S&P 1100 reversal?
Long $DUG and short some Financials. Looking for a re-entry on Gold though.
October 21st, 2009 at 4:00 pm
This has nothing to do with Dick Bove…
Thats just a coincidence.
This has everything to do with price.
October 21st, 2009 at 4:01 pm
@HCF: LOL. I certainly don’t think that’s a GOOD thing. At least in ‘08 when we last had gas that high, unemployment wasn’t as high. I kind of imagine that J6P would be mighty pissed at paying $4/gallon AND not having a job.
@HW: I do remember you saying that about the dollar in the past. Maybe we’re at that point just a tad sooner than you though. It’s still too early to tell, but just something to think about. Today felt different, for sure.
October 21st, 2009 at 4:01 pm
how can someone be mini-boom, dow 11,500 and then the next day say it’s a house of cards-
has anyone seen the movie Sybil
October 21st, 2009 at 4:01 pm
Helluva time for me to have gone long… False breakout perhaps? I’m glad I have my stop-losses set up already… Also glad to be mostly cash. If S&P 500 breaks 1040 or so then this will be really fun…
HCF
October 21st, 2009 at 4:01 pm
There is a big-ass switch in the basement at 85 Broad. LLOYD and GILES just flipped it from PUMP to SUCK.
October 21st, 2009 at 4:02 pm
“Helluva time for me to have gone long”
The market always tops when bears finally grow horns….
October 21st, 2009 at 4:03 pm
I-Man: I agree but it sure tells you something about the fragility of this thing when comments knock it over. Tomorrow could be a mess.
October 21st, 2009 at 4:04 pm
@Mannwich:
J6P is (and should be) pissed off at the powers that be about bailouts and Wall Street greed and what the hell do they distract him with…. socialized healthcare?! WTF? With oil and unemployment going up and dollar going down, I think the average American is ALREADY getting a free rectal exam on a daily basis…
HCF
October 21st, 2009 at 4:05 pm
Ahab – re: Sybil – my thoughts exactly -
October 21st, 2009 at 4:05 pm
@leftback:
You know how they say if you don’t know who the sucker is, then it’s probably you. I should be exhibit A of this, I guess!
HCF
October 21st, 2009 at 4:06 pm
ahab: I’ve maintained that there is a mini economic boom happening. Based on stimulus, weak dollar, commodities, China, etc. I didn’t think it would already be priced into the market until today. I started to see a divergence and a sort of fear that wasn’t around recently. Hence, I liquidated my biggest holding AAPL based upon that.
October 21st, 2009 at 4:09 pm
Harry,
I dont know what to think of you anymore. One minute I think you are a complete bulltard idiot, and the next I think you’re really just Barry Ritholtz in disguise trying to mess with I and I domepiece.
I know you are a smart character though… maybe we’ve only seen the tip of the iceberg.
I do like you better today than usual tho, and Thor is spot on. This seems more like the HW of early September.
October 21st, 2009 at 4:10 pm
and the 11,500- well then a 10% correction- then off to the races again-
sounded pretty “cut in stone”-
HW is a crackpot-
he and bsneath can hold hands and go skip down street together as far as i care- but to say that HW makes any sense at all staggers me
October 21st, 2009 at 4:13 pm
I-Man: This is one of the ugliest reversal days we’ve seen in a while. Might be the beginning of something bigger, I guess we’ll see if there is follow through tomorrow. If tomorrow lulls around without conviction downward, I may be tempted to grab some index efts on the dip. My feeling is tomorrow will be messy based upon the conviction of volume selling on that last 45 minutes.
October 21st, 2009 at 4:16 pm
ahab: Sorry you feel that way. Can’t stay married to a position that appears to be heading toward a quicker divorce than anticipated. There’s a big fat bust waiting out there, my feeling has been we would get higher sucking in more retail investors before that happened. Could still, but something changed today. IMO.
October 21st, 2009 at 4:17 pm
I sure didn’t see anything different today than in previous <1% down days. But crude probably will start to pressure the rally at some point. It's not an election year, so we might let it run. I still contend that if an incumbent had been in office in 08 and running for re-election, oil would have NEVER gotten to $147 without intervention.
There again, I also contend that markets do not behave naturally without very broad curbs in place. Nevertheless, my stops for S&P are set before any 10% pullback gets close. I'm not losing the little I've made in recent weeks.
October 21st, 2009 at 4:19 pm
Beige Book was fugly.
October 21st, 2009 at 4:36 pm
Harry,
You are really something bro. Your mini economic boom is bullshit and you know it, glad you seem to be coming clean. At least your flexible, can’t knock that, would like to see you try and at least offer a little bit more than your usual weak comments (we’ll only get 2-4% pullbacks for example) and analysis but I’ll give you time. My advice, not that you need it seeing as you have made so much money this year, since you were confused by it a week or two ago, figure out what credit contraction can do to the market and a credit based economy. Clue: It’s really bad….
Soon enough BR will give up on his 70’s comparisons too. Then again, you might be one in the same.
October 21st, 2009 at 4:49 pm
Any good short only etf’s to hold it for few weeks? not for quick trading.
October 21st, 2009 at 4:50 pm
But, ben, the mini bullshit boom is economical.
October 21st, 2009 at 4:52 pm
@rustum
What do you want to short?
October 21st, 2009 at 4:58 pm
rustum,
fwiw, if you want to hold for a few weeks buy puts, not an ETF.
jmo.
October 21st, 2009 at 5:04 pm
HW makes a good point, today’s Market action was Ugly.
There’s been mucho Air blown into these Index levels, any Longs are right to be nimble..
Also, stop-losses can get blown by, Puts, on the other hand, not so much..
we should remember, as this Oil print is alluding to, Too many ‘Dollars’..
October 21st, 2009 at 5:13 pm
TBT was a buy yesterday. QID as well. I noted on Thursday last that BB&T was going to get kicked in the kidneys- has since moved from 28s to mid 25s. More to come. CRE is a weak flank there, IMHO, DYODD.
On a bright note, CWV! Also, some people are looking at LCC (Lumina Copper). I have heard of calls for 3.50 Cu in short order. Function of the dollar’s descent.
How about demand destruction and price inflation! Wow. Anybody want to trade a Tahoe for a Vespa?
October 21st, 2009 at 5:17 pm
Hi Ben,
Would you mind sharing the reason that you believe puts is better than say short ETF? They both have time decay and leverage, right?
Thanks a lot!
Ben22 says:
fwiw, if you want to hold for a few weeks buy puts, not an ETF.
October 21st, 2009 at 5:21 pm
MRegan; yes deflation in what we own, and inflation in what we need. Those bastards sure know how to fock the middle class
October 21st, 2009 at 5:46 pm
DeDude-
The most galling thing is that people WANT to work, to contribute, to build, but if the superstructure is designed to thieve present excedent value AND all future excedent value, then, hell, it ain’t much of a party, is it?
Now how about that Tahoe-Vespa Credit Default Swap- she’s a beaut!
October 21st, 2009 at 8:57 pm
Harry I will buy all the AAPL you have to sell. AAPL has plenty of room to run. Now WFC on the other hand..sold to you.
October 21st, 2009 at 9:25 pm
Must take a shitload of oil to harvest all those green shoots.
October 21st, 2009 at 11:21 pm
@NCT,
the way I read that post it was for profit, not protection, puts on lots of paper aren’t exactly pricey right now, so there is a greater profit to be had using puts vs. the ETF’s imo.
October 22nd, 2009 at 1:12 am
Ventura2012,
what kind of upside target do you have for AAPL?
http://www.techcrunch.com/2009/10/21/google-to-partner-with-ilike-and-lala-for-new-music-service/
October 22nd, 2009 at 12:16 pm
Oil. $90.50 is the 50% retracement of the $148 high to the $33 low is. The 61.8% retracement is $104.70. Then could we see another leg down???
Is there an annotated chart of oil? Could I use a chart of oil in terms of the Euro as a quick and dirty substitute for constant $US?