Below you will find the potential winners of the Nobel Prize in Economics, via Ladbrokes, and online UK gambling shop, via Greg Mankiw.

As we have already learned, the prediction markets and online shops were totally wrong about the Nobel Peace Prize. This forecasting error was no surprise, and time permitting, I will explain why tomorrow.

Economic Nobel Winners Odds:

Eugene Fama 2/1
Paul Romer 4/1
Ernst Fehr 6/1
Kenneth R. French 6/1
William Nordhaus 6/1
Robert Barro 7/1
Matthew J Rabin 8/1
Jean Tirole 9/1
Martin Weitzman 9/1
Chris Pissarides 10/1
Dale T Mortensen 10/1
Xavier Sala-i-Martin 10/1
Avinash Dixit 14/1
Jagdish N. Bhagwati 14/1
Robert Schiller [sic] 14/1
William Baumol 16/1
Martin S. Feldstein 20/1
Christopher Sims 25/1
Lars P. Hansen 25/1
Nancy Stokey 25/1
Peter A Diamond 25/1
Thomas J. Sargent 25/1
Dale Jorgenson 33/1
Paul Milgrom 33/1
Oliver Hart 40/1
Bengt R Holmstrom 50/1
Elhanan Helpman 50/1
Ellinor Ostrom 50/1
Gene M Grossman 50/1
Karl-Goran Maler 50/1
Oliver Williamson 50/1
Robert B Wilson 50/1

Category: Economy

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

31 Responses to “Nobel Economics Prize Potential Winner Odds”

  1. untiedshu says:

    If Fama’s theories were correct and he was going to win the prize, shouldn’t he be 1/1?

  2. bsneath says:

    Which one hates Bush the most? It worked for Krugman last year……

  3. investorinpa says:

    Who the hell are most of these people? How about the REAL economics prize winner be a person who actually did a damn thing to help out the world’s economies? I’m tired of lame theorists winning.

  4. KJ Foehr says:

    Nouriel should be on the list. Maybe next year…

  5. tradeking13 says:

    Ben Bernanke for saving the world financial system with his printing press :)

  6. babygal says:

    Barry give us a Twitter post link also please!


    BR: Really? Why?

  7. Wes Schott says:

    “there is no Nobel Prize in economics. Not officially, anyway. The proper title of the award is the Bank of Sweden Prize in Economics in Memory of Alfred Nobel. But it is the Nobel Foundation that handles the details, and the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences that votes the award, just like the original prizes.

    The Economics Prize was established in 1968, and given for the first time the following year (to pioneer econometricians Ragnar Frisch and Jan Tinbergen). The idea was to commemorate the founding of the Swedish central bank three centuries before, and to recognize the gradual maturation of the field.

    The decision coincided with the high point in the prestige of the Keynesian achievement. Had its organizers been delayed, the award almost certainly never would have seen the light of day. The global economy entered an extended period of turbulence in the 1970s, and before long the prize had become an easy target for criticism. In 1974, for example, it was denounced by Swedish development economist Gunnar Myrdal, who shared it with Austrian theorist Friedrich Von Hayek. Myrdal took it anyway. ”

  8. Tom K says:

    I don’t see my name on the list. What’s up with that?

  9. beaufou says:

    Let me guess, Bernanke for saving the world.
    Might as well while we are in the business of thanking every useless a-hole on the planet.

    My nominee is every man and woman who ever had to work for a decent living with a decent wage, it is gone, as Bush said to the lady who had to work three jobs to keep a roof on top of her and her three kids heads, it’s the American dream.
    The new corporate dream of making shit money for a shit job while our corrupt government is planning to overtax us.

    Fuck them all.

  10. call me ahab says:


  11. DMR says:

    “bsneath Says:

    Which one hates Bush the most? It worked for Krugman last year……”

    You’d be surprised how much Krugman’s 1999 paper on liquidity influenced (scared) even the Bushies.

  12. melior says:

    Taleb. He was right all along.

  13. KJ Foehr says:

    Why isn’t Lakshman Achuthan on the list at about 5 for 4?

    After all, it appears he (or whoever does the actual ECRI forecast) is never wrong.

  14. wunsacon says:

    Tom K, please don’t spoil my chances of winning. Either get in line or show me your Disney FASTPASS card. (Let’s keep this civil.)

  15. Advocatus Diaboli says:

    Maybe they should give it to Roubini, Taleb or Satyajit Das.

  16. mathman says:

    As in horse racing, these are the odds against winning, i assume. Since i never won anything gambling, i’ll just pick the top guy Fama (who ever he is) as most likely to win (2/3 probability). This (my choosing him) almost guarantees that he won’t.

  17. jc says:

    Only a couple womens

  18. jc says:

    Uncle Ben will be Time magazine man of the year…if Time is still in business

  19. jc says:

    Unemployed running out of benefits, political scrapping unfolding

  20. wufnik says:

    Looks like a couple of 50:1 shots take it.

  21. ToNYC says:

    Two 50:1 shots tie for first . Now what are the odds of the happening? A forecast of 1:2500?

  22. number2son says:

    What, no odds on Larry Summers? After Paul Lizza’s fawning encomium in last week’s New Yorker (see, you’d think he’d have some pretty good odds.

    Honestly, after reading that article I am sorely tempted to cancel my subscription. It is the worst example of critical journalism I have ever suffered.

  23. KellyD3 says:

    I’m surprised that Lawrence Yun (The Big Picture’s favorite economist) is not on the list.

  24. Wes Schott says:

    Ostrom and Williamson – 2, 50:1 shots

  25. [...] pair of 50/1 shots win the Nobel prize in Economics. (WSJ, Clusterstock, Real Time Economics, EconLog, Marginal [...]

  26. The Curmudgeon says:

    The most valuable use of Mr. Nobel’s invention would be to blast the Nobel prize–our modern-day version of sainthood in our hubristic worship of the human intellect–to oblivion.

    Who really gives a damn? After awarding a peace prize to a man whose singular accomplishment was having the proper mix of black and white genes to make him electable against an aging representative of a regime forlorn of new ideas, why should anyone care who gets what Nobel?

  27. [...] we noted last night, Eugene Fama was the odds on favorite to win at thew various prediction markets at 2 to 1. The [...]

  28. owen b says:

    For those who suggested Roubini get the prize, please read this:

  29. madman130 says:

    Barak Obama 1.9/1

  30. rmasand says:

    Obama’s not on the list. A lad from Ladbroke’s explained, on NPR, that Obama had started at 25/1 but ended up at 20/1 towards the end. Mankiw’s Ladbroke list is just uh..broke.

  31. wunsacon says:

    If you award a Nobel to me, I promise to do everything I can to earn it.