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	<title>Comments on: Entering the Holiday Shopping Season (Beware Surveys!)</title>
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	<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/entering-the-holiday-shopping-season-beware-surveys/</link>
	<description>Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media</description>
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		<title>By: Market Talk &#187; Blog Archive &#187; It Always Comes Back To Jobs</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/entering-the-holiday-shopping-season-beware-surveys/comment-page-1/#comment-236943</link>
		<dc:creator>Market Talk &#187; Blog Archive &#187; It Always Comes Back To Jobs</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Nov 2009 21:01:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=42493#comment-236943</guid>
		<description>[...] course, as Barry Ritholtz has noted in the past, individual holiday spending surveys need to be taken with a grain of salt. But when so [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] course, as Barry Ritholtz has noted in the past, individual holiday spending surveys need to be taken with a grain of salt. But when so [...]</p>
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		<title>By: PithyDog</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/entering-the-holiday-shopping-season-beware-surveys/comment-page-1/#comment-230309</link>
		<dc:creator>PithyDog</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Oct 2009 21:07:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=42493#comment-230309</guid>
		<description>@MEH
October 28th, 2009 at 8:17 am 
bet it this way: ““A re-awakening of values””

Not sure what you mean, bet it and add. quotes?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@MEH<br />
October 28th, 2009 at 8:17 am<br />
bet it this way: ““A re-awakening of values””</p>
<p>Not sure what you mean, bet it and add. quotes?</p>
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		<title>By: HarryWanger</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/entering-the-holiday-shopping-season-beware-surveys/comment-page-1/#comment-230289</link>
		<dc:creator>HarryWanger</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Oct 2009 20:25:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=42493#comment-230289</guid>
		<description>Onlooker: Never, ever marry a position. I was clear in making my call that there was a change last week and I was opening short positions.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Onlooker: Never, ever marry a position. I was clear in making my call that there was a change last week and I was opening short positions.</p>
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		<title>By: Onlooker from Troy</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/entering-the-holiday-shopping-season-beware-surveys/comment-page-1/#comment-230239</link>
		<dc:creator>Onlooker from Troy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Oct 2009 18:26:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=42493#comment-230239</guid>
		<description>Gee Harry, I&#039;d start responding to you but I never know when you&#039;re going to go back to being the blindly bullish, caricature-like HW of the past, who talked of things in ways that you now call infuriating.

I don&#039;t know what game you&#039;re playing (or at least, were playing with the bull schtick) but you may now realize that you&#039;re credibility as a &quot;person&quot; has been shot, and folks are not likely to hear you out and have exchanges with you.

If you&#039;re going to reinvent yourself you may have to come back with a different log in name.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Gee Harry, I&#8217;d start responding to you but I never know when you&#8217;re going to go back to being the blindly bullish, caricature-like HW of the past, who talked of things in ways that you now call infuriating.</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t know what game you&#8217;re playing (or at least, were playing with the bull schtick) but you may now realize that you&#8217;re credibility as a &#8220;person&#8221; has been shot, and folks are not likely to hear you out and have exchanges with you.</p>
<p>If you&#8217;re going to reinvent yourself you may have to come back with a different log in name.</p>
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		<title>By: TakBak04</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/entering-the-holiday-shopping-season-beware-surveys/comment-page-1/#comment-230230</link>
		<dc:creator>TakBak04</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Oct 2009 17:45:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=42493#comment-230230</guid>
		<description>Folks on NY&#039;s Upper West side scaling back on haircut.  Unemployed trying to network doesn&#039;t leave much money for holiday spending this year.

PBS &quot;American Experience&quot; last night showed how the recession is hitting New Yorkers.   Also the hairdresser&#039;s sister who bought at top in FLA figuring she could HELOC to send her daughter to College.  Her home is now in trouble and she&#039;s taking in renters....others who have been foreclosed on or lost jobs.  These are not low income people...these are Middle and Upper Income...  

Think it&#039;s going to be a glum Holiday for the retailers.    It&#039;s not that folks are tired of saving.  They just don&#039;t have any money left...maxxed  out on credit card because of unemployment or fears of unemployment to come.


-----------

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/closetohome/

As the U.S. unemployment rate hits a 25-year high and the Dow Jones Industrial Average hits a six-year low, award-winning FRONTLINE producer Ofra Bikel chronicles the recession&#039;s impact on one unlikely American neighborhood -- New York&#039;s Upper East Side.

In Close to Home, Bikel sets up her cameras in the hair salon she&#039;s patronized for 20 years. It&#039;s an intimate space where she has come to know well the surprisingly diverse clientele -- from athletic trainers and housewives to high-end bankers, actors and opera singers. Despite expectations that this neighborhood is a secure bastion of privilege, these days, when clients get in the chair, they offer a window into the country in recession: Some are broke, others don&#039;t have a plan, and they&#039;re all looking to commiserate.

Deborah Boles, the owner and sole hairdresser at Deborah Hair Designs, started the business in 1985. &quot;I wanted a place where people can go and they can feel comfortable,&quot; she says. &quot;They know they belong here.&quot; But it&#039;s all on the line with the current downturn -- clients come less often; some skip coloring or skip the trim -- and as Deborah watches neighboring businesses go under, she wonders how long she can survive.

Barbara, Deborah&#039;s sister, helps out at the salon, but she has been struggling with her own economic crisis. After buying a home in Florida at the height of the market, she now has a subprime mortgage that she can no longer afford. Unable to pay the exorbitant interest, she has had to take in four tenants, each with their own stories of foreclosure and unemployment.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Folks on NY&#8217;s Upper West side scaling back on haircut.  Unemployed trying to network doesn&#8217;t leave much money for holiday spending this year.</p>
<p>PBS &#8220;American Experience&#8221; last night showed how the recession is hitting New Yorkers.   Also the hairdresser&#8217;s sister who bought at top in FLA figuring she could HELOC to send her daughter to College.  Her home is now in trouble and she&#8217;s taking in renters&#8230;.others who have been foreclosed on or lost jobs.  These are not low income people&#8230;these are Middle and Upper Income&#8230;  </p>
<p>Think it&#8217;s going to be a glum Holiday for the retailers.    It&#8217;s not that folks are tired of saving.  They just don&#8217;t have any money left&#8230;maxxed  out on credit card because of unemployment or fears of unemployment to come.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><a href="http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/closetohome/" rel="nofollow">http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/closetohome/</a></p>
<p>As the U.S. unemployment rate hits a 25-year high and the Dow Jones Industrial Average hits a six-year low, award-winning FRONTLINE producer Ofra Bikel chronicles the recession&#8217;s impact on one unlikely American neighborhood &#8212; New York&#8217;s Upper East Side.</p>
<p>In Close to Home, Bikel sets up her cameras in the hair salon she&#8217;s patronized for 20 years. It&#8217;s an intimate space where she has come to know well the surprisingly diverse clientele &#8212; from athletic trainers and housewives to high-end bankers, actors and opera singers. Despite expectations that this neighborhood is a secure bastion of privilege, these days, when clients get in the chair, they offer a window into the country in recession: Some are broke, others don&#8217;t have a plan, and they&#8217;re all looking to commiserate.</p>
<p>Deborah Boles, the owner and sole hairdresser at Deborah Hair Designs, started the business in 1985. &#8220;I wanted a place where people can go and they can feel comfortable,&#8221; she says. &#8220;They know they belong here.&#8221; But it&#8217;s all on the line with the current downturn &#8212; clients come less often; some skip coloring or skip the trim &#8212; and as Deborah watches neighboring businesses go under, she wonders how long she can survive.</p>
<p>Barbara, Deborah&#8217;s sister, helps out at the salon, but she has been struggling with her own economic crisis. After buying a home in Florida at the height of the market, she now has a subprime mortgage that she can no longer afford. Unable to pay the exorbitant interest, she has had to take in four tenants, each with their own stories of foreclosure and unemployment.</p>
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		<title>By: donna</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/entering-the-holiday-shopping-season-beware-surveys/comment-page-1/#comment-230221</link>
		<dc:creator>donna</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Oct 2009 17:19:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=42493#comment-230221</guid>
		<description>As long as they buy lots of PS3s and games, I&#039;ll be happy. ;^)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As long as they buy lots of PS3s and games, I&#8217;ll be happy. ;^)</p>
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		<title>By: HarryWanger</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/entering-the-holiday-shopping-season-beware-surveys/comment-page-1/#comment-230194</link>
		<dc:creator>HarryWanger</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Oct 2009 15:32:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=42493#comment-230194</guid>
		<description>Barry says: &quot;The bottom line: It is a buyers market.&quot; If it is, then it&#039;s going to suck for retailers. Consumers are now conditioned to look for deep discounts. Retailers on the other hand are not going to get burned with excess inventory. They&#039;re discounting power is much more muted this year. Sure,  they can mark down less inventory, destroy their margins and be left reeling. The consumer wants last year&#039;s giveaway prices. She/he isn&#039;t going to get them this year.

Regarding Cohen: That guys is an absolute idiot! Here&#039;s a quote from his &quot;brilliant&quot; analysis yesterday:

&quot;&quot;Speaking on a conference call hosted by Dow Jones analyst Indexes and STOXX, Marshall Cohen, chief industry of market researcher NPD Group said consumers are getting tired of watching their pennies.

&quot;Consumers are clearly telling us they are beginning to get tired of saving money,&quot; Cohen said.

It has been more than a year since the economy started putting the pinch on consumer pocketbooks. Consumers have been trying to get their debt under control, and have pushed up the savings rate to decade-high levels. The holidays may finally give consumers a reason to start spending again.&quot;

-Is anyone here &quot;tired of saving money&quot; yet? This guy is not only completely out of touch but somewhat insulting as  well. There are about twice as many unemployed this year vs. last. They&#039;re not &quot;getting tired of saving&quot;, they&#039;re trying to survive. How moronic can a person be? It absolutely infuriates me!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Barry says: &#8220;The bottom line: It is a buyers market.&#8221; If it is, then it&#8217;s going to suck for retailers. Consumers are now conditioned to look for deep discounts. Retailers on the other hand are not going to get burned with excess inventory. They&#8217;re discounting power is much more muted this year. Sure,  they can mark down less inventory, destroy their margins and be left reeling. The consumer wants last year&#8217;s giveaway prices. She/he isn&#8217;t going to get them this year.</p>
<p>Regarding Cohen: That guys is an absolute idiot! Here&#8217;s a quote from his &#8220;brilliant&#8221; analysis yesterday:</p>
<p>&#8220;&#8221;Speaking on a conference call hosted by Dow Jones analyst Indexes and STOXX, Marshall Cohen, chief industry of market researcher NPD Group said consumers are getting tired of watching their pennies.</p>
<p>&#8220;Consumers are clearly telling us they are beginning to get tired of saving money,&#8221; Cohen said.</p>
<p>It has been more than a year since the economy started putting the pinch on consumer pocketbooks. Consumers have been trying to get their debt under control, and have pushed up the savings rate to decade-high levels. The holidays may finally give consumers a reason to start spending again.&#8221;</p>
<p>-Is anyone here &#8220;tired of saving money&#8221; yet? This guy is not only completely out of touch but somewhat insulting as  well. There are about twice as many unemployed this year vs. last. They&#8217;re not &#8220;getting tired of saving&#8221;, they&#8217;re trying to survive. How moronic can a person be? It absolutely infuriates me!</p>
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		<title>By: Mannwich</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/entering-the-holiday-shopping-season-beware-surveys/comment-page-1/#comment-230179</link>
		<dc:creator>Mannwich</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Oct 2009 14:52:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=42493#comment-230179</guid>
		<description>One gift to/from the wife, Secret Santa with relatives, some goodies for the nieces and nephews (one each) and that&#039;s it.  We always prefer to save and spend our money on things that we value, like traveling.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>One gift to/from the wife, Secret Santa with relatives, some goodies for the nieces and nephews (one each) and that&#8217;s it.  We always prefer to save and spend our money on things that we value, like traveling.</p>
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		<title>By: Rikky</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/entering-the-holiday-shopping-season-beware-surveys/comment-page-1/#comment-230173</link>
		<dc:creator>Rikky</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Oct 2009 14:42:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=42493#comment-230173</guid>
		<description>i&#039;m having a hard time predicting this holiday season.  on one hand i understand what bsneath is saying people are out of work have less net worth, less cash, less credit and high levels of debt so expect sales to be equal if not worse than last year.  on the other hand there is something to be said for the emotional component that influences spending during the holidays.  for the 80% out there still gainfully employed who have been keeping a tighter rein on their finances all year to pay down debt/built up savings they might let themselves go a little bit because after all they&#039;ve been good boys and girls and frankly they&#039;re a bit tired of penny pinching which is so out of the norm for them and what better time to let it go than during the feel good holidays?

overall i think we end up a with a holiday season that&#039;s flat to slightly up from last year.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>i&#8217;m having a hard time predicting this holiday season.  on one hand i understand what bsneath is saying people are out of work have less net worth, less cash, less credit and high levels of debt so expect sales to be equal if not worse than last year.  on the other hand there is something to be said for the emotional component that influences spending during the holidays.  for the 80% out there still gainfully employed who have been keeping a tighter rein on their finances all year to pay down debt/built up savings they might let themselves go a little bit because after all they&#8217;ve been good boys and girls and frankly they&#8217;re a bit tired of penny pinching which is so out of the norm for them and what better time to let it go than during the feel good holidays?</p>
<p>overall i think we end up a with a holiday season that&#8217;s flat to slightly up from last year.</p>
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		<title>By: bsneath</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/entering-the-holiday-shopping-season-beware-surveys/comment-page-1/#comment-230168</link>
		<dc:creator>bsneath</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Oct 2009 14:25:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=42493#comment-230168</guid>
		<description>My instincts tell me that last year was one of shock but folks still had a fairly normal holiday season.  This year, many more are out of work and folks have had enough time to decide to cut way back.  It is my plan anyways - got the family conditioned to not expect what they got in the past.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My instincts tell me that last year was one of shock but folks still had a fairly normal holiday season.  This year, many more are out of work and folks have had enough time to decide to cut way back.  It is my plan anyways &#8211; got the family conditioned to not expect what they got in the past.</p>
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