Comments on: Is the Recession Over?

By: Blurtman

Blurtman — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 16:40:01 +0000

If GDP is increasing, the recession is ending.

Two issues:

1.) GDP numbers have been bullshit in the recent past, having included bogus FIRE revenues. Has anyone gone back and corrected the last few year’s GDP numbers by subtracting out bogus revenue generated by the selling of bogus FIRE products, i.e. inflated real estate, falsely rated MBS, CDO, etc?

2.) There may be a disconnect between the reports of the end of the recession and the continued deterioration of the standard of living of the average citizen. If GDP goes up and so does unemployment, or if GDP goes up, and the standard of living continues to decrease, so what?

By: ToNYC

ToNYC — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 09:21:02 +0000

A list of the $85 Billion CDS trade tickets/ swap agreements that AIG was about to fail on and Hank Paulson strong-armed the US Treasury and Congress to pay 100 cents on the dollar to Goldman Sachs, the successful in settlement entity. I’d like to see that. The US Treasury paid for it by creating the cash out of the FED Reserve organization of Member Banks of which no People are members. The Peoples money was diluted by this fiat currency creation and dilution as if it could be traded for real effort, food, fruit, services by a free People. What product did we buy? Can I get a refund?

By: JusTryinTaMakeIt

JusTryinTaMakeIt — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 02:29:51 +0000

It’s hard to see how the recession is over when federal tax receipts in September were 20% below 2008:
http://www.mybudget360.com/government-tax-receipts-down-20-percent-year-over-year-wall-street-banks-earning-billions-the-unsustainable-economic-course/ And state receipts seem to be following a similar path:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/10/state-revenue-drops-most-since-1963.html
In the second quarter national sales tax receipts were 9.5% below 2008. That would indicate to me that consumption was 9.5% below last year! Maybe those upward slopes in the graphs you presented reflect “less bad” conditions. They clearly don’t represent improvements over prior peaks!

By: HarryWanger

HarryWanger — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 21:37:43 +0000

Barry: Foolish to even try to suggest to this crowd that the economy is improving. Doesn’t matter if you throw every stat and fact at the book at them. They’re the Failure Caucus – never happy unless the economy is falling to pieces. They’re fools who have let the greatest money making opportunity we will ever see in our lifetimes slip through their doomy finger.

By: Winston Munn

Winston Munn — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 21:31:08 +0000

@Marcu Aurelius and Mannwich,

“Like Bill Maher once said (I paraphrase), ‘Only in America do we see breast cancer as an opportunity to make a buck.’”

“This is a ‘lagging indicator’ for those newly minted unemployed, no?”

I never thought about it before, but I guess death is a lagging indicator.

By: Marcus Aurelius

Marcus Aurelius — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 20:33:15 +0000

impermanence Says:

“I am in health care and I have been in a “recession” for the entire 30 years I have been in practice, the profits being shifted to the corporate players.”
___________

Bingo! There’s your escalating “health care” costs. Coroprations have industrialized the system — using the societal necessity for basic healthcare as a license for amassing windfall profits. The practitioners are mere employees. Like Bill Maher once said (I paraphrase), “Only in America do we see breast cancer as an opportunity to make a buck.”

By: Mannwich

Mannwich — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 19:45:38 +0000

This is a “lagging indicator” for those newly minted unemployed, no? Let the “mini economic boom” roll onward.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/10/florida-unemployment-rate-hits-series.html

By: impermanence

impermanence — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 19:42:34 +0000

Rikky writes:

“improving is an overused term during this crisis. if last year i made $100 million and this year i made $10 million then next year i made $14 million that’s a 14% “improvement”.”

Actually, it’s a 40% improvement which further strengthens your point that statistics, although interesting, are generally used to deceive. Who cares whether we are in a recession of not? I am in health care and I have been in a “recession” for the entire 30 years I have been in practice, the profits being shifted to the corporate players.

For 90% of the American people, it has sucked over the past two generations and will continue to suck until the economy is taken back from the parasites in the FIRE economy who produce no wealth what-so-ever.

By: Mannwich

Mannwich — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 19:41:34 +0000

VD said: “But it’s the high-income discretionary spenders who dominate the consumption side of GDP and it always has been. ”

This is the kind of clap trap we get when the useless limousine liberals are running the show. They’re almost worse than those idiots on the Right who brought us to this point.

By: Mannwich

Mannwich — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 19:39:29 +0000

@VD: If the unemployed #’s reach high enough into the middle to upper-middle class like I think the might, you may change your tune on this one. Just make sure you’re little enclave is heavily fortified with the newest and latest security though, and YOU (and your pals) personally should be OK, right? No big deal.