Comments on: Media Appearance: The Kudlow Report 10.01.09 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/media-appearance-the-kudlow-report-10-01-09/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Tue, 14 Feb 2012 23:28:32 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.5 By: MelJ http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/media-appearance-the-kudlow-report-10-01-09/comment-page-1/#comment-221823 MelJ Fri, 02 Oct 2009 15:23:46 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=39906#comment-221823 Claims by talking heads about the accuracy of their past predictions are pretty meaningless. In general pundits say so many things it's not hard to find things that actually do come true and ignore those that do not. Barry, how about publishing a model daily portfolio that implements all your prognostications on a daily basis and then we can see how much money you actually make or lose over short and long term time frames. Claims by talking heads about the accuracy of their past predictions
are pretty meaningless. In general pundits say so many things it’s
not hard to find things that actually do come true and ignore those
that do not. Barry, how about publishing a model daily portfolio that
implements all your prognostications on a daily basis and then we can
see how much money you actually make or lose over short and long term
time frames.

]]> By: ZackAttack http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/media-appearance-the-kudlow-report-10-01-09/comment-page-1/#comment-221774 ZackAttack Fri, 02 Oct 2009 14:29:02 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=39906#comment-221774 Understand, I'm not here to defend the fact that I largely missed the rally. I'm just interested in what, specifically, BR was looking at when he made that call. Understand, I’m not here to defend the fact that I largely missed the rally.

I’m just interested in what, specifically, BR was looking at when he made that call.

]]> By: ZackAttack http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/media-appearance-the-kudlow-report-10-01-09/comment-page-1/#comment-221772 ZackAttack Fri, 02 Oct 2009 14:27:38 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=39906#comment-221772 3 out of 6 sentiment indicators, a chart with no support out to a 10 year scale... nothing better than a coin toss. 3 out of 6 sentiment indicators, a chart with no support out to a 10 year scale… nothing better than a coin toss.

]]> By: danm http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/media-appearance-the-kudlow-report-10-01-09/comment-page-1/#comment-221754 danm Fri, 02 Oct 2009 13:53:16 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=39906#comment-221754 Mutual fund cash, the AAII and OTC activity did support a bottom, however. I just didn’t think it was enough. ------------ You're waiting for the "true" trough. You're never going to get good returns if you want to be 100% right. Mutual fund cash, the AAII and OTC activity did support a bottom, however. I just didn’t think it was enough.
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You’re waiting for the “true” trough. You’re never going to get good returns if you want to be 100% right.

]]> By: ZackAttack http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/media-appearance-the-kudlow-report-10-01-09/comment-page-1/#comment-221714 ZackAttack Fri, 02 Oct 2009 13:02:28 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=39906#comment-221714 Yeah, but, Mike, how many people have ever looked at a 27 year chart when making a decision about an entry point? I saw no reason on anything out to a 10-year chart to be long specifically at 666. As far as sentiment, AAII is just one thing to look at. For II sentiment, as I'm recalling, bearish % was 47% that week, compared to 55% back in December 2008. Put/call ratio was nothing like what you should have seen at a major bottom. Oscillators had been as low or lower back in the fall of 2008. Insider buying was strong, but had peaked in November, 2008. Mutual fund cash, the AAII and OTC activity did support a bottom, however. I just didn't think it was enough. Yeah, but, Mike, how many people have ever looked at a 27 year chart when making a decision about an entry point? I saw no reason on anything out to a 10-year chart to be long specifically at 666.

As far as sentiment, AAII is just one thing to look at. For II sentiment, as I’m recalling, bearish % was 47% that week, compared to 55% back in December 2008.

Put/call ratio was nothing like what you should have seen at a major bottom.

Oscillators had been as low or lower back in the fall of 2008.

Insider buying was strong, but had peaked in November, 2008.

Mutual fund cash, the AAII and OTC activity did support a bottom, however. I just didn’t think it was enough.

]]> By: danm http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/media-appearance-the-kudlow-report-10-01-09/comment-page-1/#comment-221695 danm Fri, 02 Oct 2009 12:21:25 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=39906#comment-221695 And when it bounces back, then you have to know when to get out again. And when it bounces back, then you have to know when to get out again.

]]> By: danm http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/media-appearance-the-kudlow-report-10-01-09/comment-page-1/#comment-221691 danm Fri, 02 Oct 2009 12:18:26 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=39906#comment-221691 That’s enough brown-nosing. I think the rollover is still the right idea, rather than consolidation BR. Think of the “shit, i got taken again!” psychology of the everyman in this second leg down, and the cascading effect of that emotion -------- I think it's going to get worse and I am quite negative on the quality of the economy we are going to have. Notice how I don't mention GDP because so many factors could create GDP growth. I don't care about GDP growth, I care about the quality of this growth for me and my children. Unfortunately, as the developed world population ages, there will be less and less concern for future generations. And the quality of the growth, is there is any, will be questionable. All that being said, if you look at charts of every crash, there seems to be a constant. The market ALWAYS (maybe someone can prove me wrong on this) bounces back after a crash despite lower earnings and rising unemployment. Why? Probably because all those on the sidelines for some time finally jump in, because most people want to believe that a white knight in a shining armour will come and save us (government?) and lastly because many believe that many will believe the previous 2 reasons. That’s enough brown-nosing. I think the rollover is still the right idea, rather than consolidation BR. Think of the “shit, i got taken again!” psychology of the everyman in this second leg down, and the cascading effect of that emotion
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I think it’s going to get worse and I am quite negative on the quality of the economy we are going to have. Notice how I don’t mention GDP because so many factors could create GDP growth. I don’t care about GDP growth, I care about the quality of this growth for me and my children. Unfortunately, as the developed world population ages, there will be less and less concern for future generations. And the quality of the growth, is there is any, will be questionable.

All that being said, if you look at charts of every crash, there seems to be a constant. The market ALWAYS (maybe someone can prove me wrong on this) bounces back after a crash despite lower earnings and rising unemployment. Why? Probably because all those on the sidelines for some time finally jump in, because most people want to believe that a white knight in a shining armour will come and save us (government?) and lastly because many believe that many will believe the previous 2 reasons.

]]> By: dead hobo http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/media-appearance-the-kudlow-report-10-01-09/comment-page-1/#comment-221680 dead hobo Fri, 02 Oct 2009 11:13:53 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=39906#comment-221680 BR: I flipped bullish in March, and have reiterated that market posture here repeatedly. If you paid attention, you could have made money. reply: --------- Sorry, buy your advice is no better than anyone else's. The only time I followed it I lost money. I could listen to Joe Kernan and get the same advice today. BR: I flipped bullish in March, and have reiterated that market posture here repeatedly.

If you paid attention, you could have made money.

reply:
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Sorry, buy your advice is no better than anyone else’s. The only time I followed it I lost money. I could listen to Joe Kernan and get the same advice today.

]]> By: JasRas http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/media-appearance-the-kudlow-report-10-01-09/comment-page-1/#comment-221667 JasRas Fri, 02 Oct 2009 07:13:15 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=39906#comment-221667 Very nice segment. I think if you compare this one to others you've done in the past, you are now a "pro" at the CNBC box... Very nice segment. I think if you compare this one to others you’ve done in the past, you are now a “pro” at the CNBC box…

]]> By: Grand_Supercycle http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/media-appearance-the-kudlow-report-10-01-09/comment-page-1/#comment-221664 Grand_Supercycle Fri, 02 Oct 2009 05:34:08 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=39906#comment-221664 I warned of an impending stockmarket crash back in *<a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0" rel="nofollow">early 2007</a>* The primary trend remains down, is the current bear market rally ending ? Yesterday's action may be important. I warned of an impending stockmarket crash back in *early 2007*

The primary trend remains down, is the current bear market rally ending ?

Yesterday’s action may be important.

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