I guess if you look at starts in a certain way — and ignore the obvious seasonality — they may appear to be up, but . . .
>
Hat tip Rob
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof. —John Kenneth Galbraith
Putting aside its incredible product line and pipeline of more, its still attractive valuation relative to earnings, and its $100 per share of cash that may be used for a dividend soon, Apple's stock has gone parabolic. And, parabolic moves always end one way, back to the place where the parabolic move began. Now, AAPL can of course power higher to who knows where in this move but the largest market cap stock in the world has now entered a tenuous phase, strictly technically speaking. But I digress. German investor confidence, the ZEW, in the next 6 months rose back...
read more »
Tweet
Facebook
Reddit
Digg this!
October 25th, 2009 at 12:07 pm
Just look at the 12 month MA and you won’t fall into that trap.
October 25th, 2009 at 12:13 pm
I find it interesting the average hasn’t really moved since the 70′s. You would think with population growth housing starts would increase.
And BTW, I’m back to short the market again per GS, BAC, YHOO, AA and long GLD.
October 25th, 2009 at 12:37 pm
“I guess if you look at starts in a certain way — and ignore the obvious seasonality — they may appear to be up,”
That’s right Barry. It’s perspective. Get on board. LMAO
October 25th, 2009 at 3:27 pm
How about this as an analogy to our economic situation:
If your car engine starts to break down many people will just keep topping the oil/water and adding all sorts of additives to stop it from smoking. I think this is where we are, the economic engine is broken and the governments are frantically topping up the oil and adding all sorts of weird additives trying to get a few more miles out of it. How many more miles before we’re stranded by the side of the highway? We really need an expensive rebuild.
Now isn’t less housing starts good news? You’d think we don’t want to increase supply at this point. Coming from Canada it’s really odd that the real estate market here seems to be faring better even though prices are crazy high and have been for a long time. I guess all this will change once rates will come up again to fight inflation.
October 25th, 2009 at 4:31 pm
morbidly overdone…
October 25th, 2009 at 5:21 pm
¡ ǝuıɟ sı ןןɐ puɐ uʍop ǝpısdn ʇɹɐɥɔ ǝɥʇ uɹnʇ
October 25th, 2009 at 10:55 pm
Yes, less housing starts is great news. Unless you are a carpenter, plumber, drywaller, painter, landscaper etc.
October 26th, 2009 at 12:22 am
@WaveCatcher
No easy way out of this unfortunately. My comment was mostly sarcastic but more seriously I hope they saved some money over the last 10 years or so when they were doing really well. If my pipes leak I still need to get a plumber. Houses need to get repainted etc. etc. That won’t change, and their hourly pay seems higher than mine (I’m not in finance).
October 26th, 2009 at 4:23 am
@John Bouchers
Welcome back! Last time we talked I was wondering as to whether the problem with Bear Sterns was liquidity or solvency. That question was conclusively answered quite shortly. The was pre-peak credit, peak oil and Obama. Time certainly flies. Hope you’ve been well.
October 26th, 2009 at 4:24 am
Opps sry John Borchers….
October 26th, 2009 at 9:41 am
The problem with a 12 month average is that it doesn’t shows the change in a trend until about 12 month after it began ;-) If you really want to fool yourself, math has a huge battery of methods at your disposal. If you are just trying to grasp at reality, beware of the unique problems that each of them have.
October 26th, 2009 at 1:28 pm
johnborchers is right, if you adjust the starts number by pop. growth to get a real #, the right hand side of the chart would even be lower.