Fascinating New Yorker piece on Martin Armstrong, a technical analysts/cycle forecaster I have been reading about for some time — his is a long sordid tale, but the bottom line is he is in jail.

Its his cycle work that is so fascinating. Nick Paumgarten looks at his attempts to predict the financial markets using numerical patterns — especially Pi — and profiles the strategy Armstrong has used to predict major peaks and crashes of the past thirty years.

This months New Yorker is a must read/own; Have a look at the full Cycle piece here.

Category: Cycles, Technical Analysis

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

31 Responses to “New Yorker: The Secret Cycle”

  1. call me ahab says:

    sounds very intriguing BR- will definitely give it a read-

    some folks are too smart for there own good

  2. AmenRa says:

    Best link for MA’s articles: http://www.scribd.com/kzuur58

    btw the 76.00 level for the dollar has been breached in after hours. Dow and S&P futures are up. Way up. Good grief. If weekly claims has any sort of improvement the shorts are in for max pain. Arrgghh!!!

  3. emmanuel117 says:

    cvienne,

    you were right about this guy. Pretty kooky, but there’s something under there worth listening to.

  4. CNBC Sucks says:

    ahab wrote: “some folks are too smart for there own good”

    Oh, the irony!

  5. DiggidyDan says:

    hahaha, thanks grammer police. Go trade some subpar fantasy prospects, LOL. (TIC)

  6. DiggidyDan says:

    funny thing is, that was your premise for a long rant on why fools did not buy the rally, was it not CNBCS? Don’t fear the reaper.

  7. BR,

    you should buy a bale of these issues and send them to clients..

    I’m sure ‘reprints’ aren’t a foreign concept to “The New Yorker”.

    Past that, I think it hiliarous/fucking sad that most peep, when presented with an Idea outside of their ‘comfort zone’, respond with ‘kooky’. That’s some Industrial-Grade Hive-mind/Brainwashing/Groupthink they should check out/look into
    http://clusty.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&query=Hive-mind+Brainwashing+Groupthink

  8. ellidc says:

    I loved the JP Morgan quote. “millionaires don’t use astrology, billionaires do.” After reading this on the heels of “the lost symbol” am I ready to rediscover the lost wisdom of the ancients about the hidden geometry of time. We build our cycles like termites build their mounds.

    But I wonder how these guys would answer the question of whether we ought to measure the cycles in nominal or real terms or why?

  9. techy says:

    Off Topic:

    I have read again and again about Japan’s lost decade and they their economy has been in slump since 20 years and how their government has debt of over 150% of GDP, and it has 40% deficit spending.

    i found out that 95% of government debt is financed by japanese household savings.
    unemployment rate is 4.4%.
    return on capital is pretty bad…1.5% 10year Note.

    But who care as long as the worker drone is able to have a nice life and save money….I would love to live in such a slump/recession.

    anybody knows why people think falling GDP is bad?

  10. ben22 says:

    pi,

    nah,

    phi

    past that, I try to read anything that is out there by him, looking forward to reading this. I read an interesting paper he wrote once about how WB was manipulating the silver market.

  11. ben22 says:

    to clarify the above, the WB claim was from a long time ago.

  12. Kort says:

    Nate posts a lot of Armstrong’s reports–here’s a recent one, but if you search his site you can find many more.

    http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/10/martin-armstrong-conspiracy-theories.html

  13. EAR says:

    Pi Cycle… I remember seeing this courtesy of Marcus Aurelius…

    April 20th, 2009 at 4:26 pm

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/worst-year-in-fortune-500-history-847-profit-decline/#comment-163499

  14. anybody knows why people think falling GDP is bad?

    techy,

    how is the GDP denominated? (yes, here in the U.S.) in U$D, right? What is the source of U$D? The Federal Reserve, no? How does the FedRes issue U$D? at Interest, yes?

    lower # of U$D = lower interest payments (generally, or Now)

    Can you fill in the rest?

    The FedRes is a Private Bank, they want to Maximize profits (Financial, usually, Economic, always)

    IOW, they’d rather have higher Financial Profits, than Lower, if given a choice, but Lower is better than None(if/when they Totally F*ck-Up and break their Machine–the US Economy)

    But, were it that Simple, they (the FedRes y Friends) have been at it for nearly a Century–They’ve succeeded in taking the People’s Gold–1933, taking the People’s Silver–1964, taking the backing (Gold) from International Trade$s–1971, and LSS: driving the World’s biggest Net Creditor into Net Debtorship–beginning in ~1986, never to reverse course.

    Seems like they sucked everything out, but for the Husk..

    If they’re, really, concerned, it’s just that they’re not ready for it to implode, yet..
    cue: http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&source=hp&q=global+governance&aq=0&oq=global+govern&aqi=g10
    IMF takes on enhanced global role
    AFP – ‎Oct 4, 2009‎
    … adding that this was “a unique opportunity to reshape the post-crisis world, to usher in a new era of collaborative global governance. …
    Video: IMF WORLD BANK DIRECTOR IN ISTANBUL ECONOMY RECOVERY Santa Barbara Arts TV
    Yes, the global financial sector has upped its game – but not nearly enough guardian.co.uk
    IMF assumes major economic role Aljazeera.net
    PR Web (press release) – AllAfrica.com
    all 3,575 news articles »
    http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&source=hp&q=global%20governance&um=1&ie=UTF-8&sa=N&tab=wn

    ~~
    sounds like fun, right?

    btw, I’d love to have someone ably disprove that hastily arranged Thesis..

  15. Marcus Aurelius says:

    EAR Says:
    October 7th, 2009 at 10:51 pm
    Pi Cycle… I remember seeing this courtesy of Marcus Aurelius…

    April 20th, 2009 at 4:26 pm
    __________

    Wow! I didn’t think anyone remembered.

  16. call me ahab says:

    MEH-

    great links- thanks- pretty wild- i was unaware about the internet story-

    appears plans are underfoot for global governance

  17. EAR says:

    Marcus Aurelius…

    It was my intro to Armstrong and his work. Knowledge is power. Thanks!

  18. bergsten says:

    Not sure about this “cycle” stuff, but CNBCS, you’d better get going on that FF Blog site. 12/21/2012 is right around the corner…

  19. SINGER says:

    “86″ is a very important number in the Hebrew kabbalah.

    I think this guy is interesting, esp. the commodities manipulation and the “club” etc. BR thanks for the post and props to Kort and AmenRa as well…

    There was a quote in the article that basically said If you want to make money be prepared to consider anything in your analysis… This is a great quote…

    “If your goal is to do research and try to extract money from the markets, you should look at all ideas… Whatever works.”

    Peter Borish on Page 7 of 10…

  20. JustinTheSkeptic says:

    Techy, because the banks are creditors and they control the world. If we (they) don’t get inflation they are F**ked. Think of it this way if you controlled the world through, (this includes banks, private equity funds, etc., strong ties to the media, Washington, et. al. would you not suggest, “oh inflation, inflation!, around every corner.) Even all the monied people want it to be true, because if it isn’t they are f**ked. The only one not taking their (the monied elite’s) inflationary placebo pill is the bond market. Is it because if they get it wrong their f**ked?

  21. mathman says:

    Here’s a bizarre story out of Japan:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aXERm052xVHI

    and some articles from NewScientist on placebos and the ethics thereof:

    http://www.newscientist.com/search?doSearch=true&query=placebo+articles

  22. Patrick Neid says:

    I feel like the New Yorker broke into my private stash.

  23. techy says:

    Japan has nearly 20 years of below par GDP.

    but they still have a good quality of life and the household have enough savings to fund their government. IMO this is not bad as people keep saying “USA is headed the way of Japan”

    I dont think they have deflation anymore…there is no room. Infact i think they may have had Asset inflation since last couple of years since there is money everywhere, with interest rate being around Zero.

    The government does not get enough revenue due to the below par GDP(low GDP, Low tax collection….i am guessing).

    but the government can always use that hidden tax called as “Dilution of savers” the printing press to pay its bill.

    The Yen should not appreciate in the current scenario…..but that not the case, right now its relative strength.

    kind of interesting….Capital has nowhere to go and it is getting killed everywhere, it is getting diluted.

    so i guess the turmoil as to how to deploy one’s capital….i wish we were in a bull market…..we could have thrown a dart and thats it.

  24. catman says:

    No point in falling down this rabbit hole. Except of course when one of these approaches gains enough followers to move a market for a while.

  25. callistenes says:

    He wrote a great piece on waterfall events and the fall of Rome which coincided with the debasement of their currency. Which BTW only took one generation.

  26. Schnormal says:

    i love nick paumgarten. he wrote this fantastic piece back in may about the financial meltdown –
    http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2009/05/18/090518fa_fact_paumgarten

    it should definitely be included in whatever book of “writing the great recession: greatest hits” that comes out.

  27. jskeelz says:

    I attended a seminar a few weeks ago at the Options Institute, the educational division of the CBOE. Allen Reminick, one of the presenters, uses cycles in a lot of his stock market forecasting materials. He has a monthly letter called the Reminick Letter as well as a company called Blue Apple Trends which has automated trading programs available that incorporate his cycle work. There is also a blog/forum called Time and Cycles for anyone interested in learning more. I found the Options Institute presentation fascinating because he made the cycles seem so predictable.

  28. alfred e says:

    Bottom line: Don’t mess with the man.

    Slaves have known that for centuries. And those that didn’t, …

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