New Yorker: The Secret Cycle
By Barry Ritholtz - October 7th, 2009, 9:00PM
Fascinating New Yorker piece on Martin Armstrong, a technical analysts/cycle forecaster I have been reading about for some time — his is a long sordid tale, but the bottom line is he is in jail.
Its his cycle work that is so fascinating. Nick Paumgarten looks at his attempts to predict the financial markets using numerical patterns — especially Pi — and profiles the strategy Armstrong has used to predict major peaks and crashes of the past thirty years.
This months New Yorker is a must read/own; Have a look at the full Cycle piece here.
Tweet
Facebook
Reddit
Digg this!
October 7th, 2009 at 9:15 pm
sounds very intriguing BR- will definitely give it a read-
some folks are too smart for there own good
October 7th, 2009 at 9:16 pm
Best link for MA’s articles: http://www.scribd.com/kzuur58
btw the 76.00 level for the dollar has been breached in after hours. Dow and S&P futures are up. Way up. Good grief. If weekly claims has any sort of improvement the shorts are in for max pain. Arrgghh!!!
October 7th, 2009 at 9:21 pm
cvienne,
you were right about this guy. Pretty kooky, but there’s something under there worth listening to.
October 7th, 2009 at 9:22 pm
ahab wrote: “some folks are too smart for there own good”
Oh, the irony!
October 7th, 2009 at 10:02 pm
hahaha, thanks grammer police. Go trade some subpar fantasy prospects, LOL. (TIC)
October 7th, 2009 at 10:04 pm
funny thing is, that was your premise for a long rant on why fools did not buy the rally, was it not CNBCS? Don’t fear the reaper.
October 7th, 2009 at 10:04 pm
BR,
you should buy a bale of these issues and send them to clients..
I’m sure ‘reprints’ aren’t a foreign concept to “The New Yorker”.
Past that, I think it hiliarous/fucking sad that most peep, when presented with an Idea outside of their ‘comfort zone’, respond with ‘kooky’. That’s some Industrial-Grade Hive-mind/Brainwashing/Groupthink they should check out/look into
http://clusty.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&query=Hive-mind+Brainwashing+Groupthink
October 7th, 2009 at 10:05 pm
I loved the JP Morgan quote. “millionaires don’t use astrology, billionaires do.” After reading this on the heels of “the lost symbol” am I ready to rediscover the lost wisdom of the ancients about the hidden geometry of time. We build our cycles like termites build their mounds.
But I wonder how these guys would answer the question of whether we ought to measure the cycles in nominal or real terms or why?
October 7th, 2009 at 10:24 pm
Off Topic:
I have read again and again about Japan’s lost decade and they their economy has been in slump since 20 years and how their government has debt of over 150% of GDP, and it has 40% deficit spending.
i found out that 95% of government debt is financed by japanese household savings.
unemployment rate is 4.4%.
return on capital is pretty bad…1.5% 10year Note.
But who care as long as the worker drone is able to have a nice life and save money….I would love to live in such a slump/recession.
anybody knows why people think falling GDP is bad?
October 7th, 2009 at 10:41 pm
pi,
nah,
phi
past that, I try to read anything that is out there by him, looking forward to reading this. I read an interesting paper he wrote once about how WB was manipulating the silver market.
October 7th, 2009 at 10:42 pm
to clarify the above, the WB claim was from a long time ago.
October 7th, 2009 at 10:46 pm
Nate posts a lot of Armstrong’s reports–here’s a recent one, but if you search his site you can find many more.
http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/10/martin-armstrong-conspiracy-theories.html
October 7th, 2009 at 10:51 pm
Pi Cycle… I remember seeing this courtesy of Marcus Aurelius…
April 20th, 2009 at 4:26 pm
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/worst-year-in-fortune-500-history-847-profit-decline/#comment-163499
October 7th, 2009 at 11:03 pm
anybody knows why people think falling GDP is bad?
techy,
how is the GDP denominated? (yes, here in the U.S.) in U$D, right? What is the source of U$D? The Federal Reserve, no? How does the FedRes issue U$D? at Interest, yes?
lower # of U$D = lower interest payments (generally, or Now)
Can you fill in the rest?
The FedRes is a Private Bank, they want to Maximize profits (Financial, usually, Economic, always)
IOW, they’d rather have higher Financial Profits, than Lower, if given a choice, but Lower is better than None(if/when they Totally F*ck-Up and break their Machine–the US Economy)
But, were it that Simple, they (the FedRes y Friends) have been at it for nearly a Century–They’ve succeeded in taking the People’s Gold–1933, taking the People’s Silver–1964, taking the backing (Gold) from International Trade$s–1971, and LSS: driving the World’s biggest Net Creditor into Net Debtorship–beginning in ~1986, never to reverse course.
Seems like they sucked everything out, but for the Husk..
If they’re, really, concerned, it’s just that they’re not ready for it to implode, yet..
cue: http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&source=hp&q=global+governance&aq=0&oq=global+govern&aqi=g10
IMF takes on enhanced global role
AFP – Oct 4, 2009
… adding that this was “a unique opportunity to reshape the post-crisis world, to usher in a new era of collaborative global governance. …
Video: IMF WORLD BANK DIRECTOR IN ISTANBUL ECONOMY RECOVERY Santa Barbara Arts TV
Yes, the global financial sector has upped its game – but not nearly enough guardian.co.uk
IMF assumes major economic role Aljazeera.net
PR Web (press release) – AllAfrica.com
all 3,575 news articles »
http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&source=hp&q=global%20governance&um=1&ie=UTF-8&sa=N&tab=wn
~~
sounds like fun, right?
btw, I’d love to have someone ably disprove that hastily arranged Thesis..
October 7th, 2009 at 11:18 pm
EAR Says:
October 7th, 2009 at 10:51 pm
Pi Cycle… I remember seeing this courtesy of Marcus Aurelius…
April 20th, 2009 at 4:26 pm
__________
Wow! I didn’t think anyone remembered.
October 7th, 2009 at 11:29 pm
MEH-
great links- thanks- pretty wild- i was unaware about the internet story-
appears plans are underfoot for global governance
October 7th, 2009 at 11:43 pm
Marcus Aurelius…
It was my intro to Armstrong and his work. Knowledge is power. Thanks!
October 7th, 2009 at 11:44 pm
Not sure about this “cycle” stuff, but CNBCS, you’d better get going on that FF Blog site. 12/21/2012 is right around the corner…
October 8th, 2009 at 1:02 am
“86″ is a very important number in the Hebrew kabbalah.
I think this guy is interesting, esp. the commodities manipulation and the “club” etc. BR thanks for the post and props to Kort and AmenRa as well…
There was a quote in the article that basically said If you want to make money be prepared to consider anything in your analysis… This is a great quote…
“If your goal is to do research and try to extract money from the markets, you should look at all ideas… Whatever works.”
Peter Borish on Page 7 of 10…
October 8th, 2009 at 2:44 am
Techy, because the banks are creditors and they control the world. If we (they) don’t get inflation they are F**ked. Think of it this way if you controlled the world through, (this includes banks, private equity funds, etc., strong ties to the media, Washington, et. al. would you not suggest, “oh inflation, inflation!, around every corner.) Even all the monied people want it to be true, because if it isn’t they are f**ked. The only one not taking their (the monied elite’s) inflationary placebo pill is the bond market. Is it because if they get it wrong their f**ked?
October 8th, 2009 at 2:48 am
Here: http://www.healthiertalk.com/placebo-pills-more-just-sugar-027
October 8th, 2009 at 6:12 am
For further reading:
http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2006/06/martin_armstron.html
October 8th, 2009 at 7:22 am
Here’s a bizarre story out of Japan:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aXERm052xVHI
and some articles from NewScientist on placebos and the ethics thereof:
http://www.newscientist.com/search?doSearch=true&query=placebo+articles
October 8th, 2009 at 7:25 am
I feel like the New Yorker broke into my private stash.
October 8th, 2009 at 7:57 am
Japan has nearly 20 years of below par GDP.
but they still have a good quality of life and the household have enough savings to fund their government. IMO this is not bad as people keep saying “USA is headed the way of Japan”
I dont think they have deflation anymore…there is no room. Infact i think they may have had Asset inflation since last couple of years since there is money everywhere, with interest rate being around Zero.
The government does not get enough revenue due to the below par GDP(low GDP, Low tax collection….i am guessing).
but the government can always use that hidden tax called as “Dilution of savers” the printing press to pay its bill.
The Yen should not appreciate in the current scenario…..but that not the case, right now its relative strength.
kind of interesting….Capital has nowhere to go and it is getting killed everywhere, it is getting diluted.
so i guess the turmoil as to how to deploy one’s capital….i wish we were in a bull market…..we could have thrown a dart and thats it.
October 8th, 2009 at 10:13 am
No point in falling down this rabbit hole. Except of course when one of these approaches gains enough followers to move a market for a while.
October 8th, 2009 at 1:08 pm
He wrote a great piece on waterfall events and the fall of Rome which coincided with the debasement of their currency. Which BTW only took one generation.
October 8th, 2009 at 2:24 pm
i love nick paumgarten. he wrote this fantastic piece back in may about the financial meltdown –
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2009/05/18/090518fa_fact_paumgarten
it should definitely be included in whatever book of “writing the great recession: greatest hits” that comes out.
October 8th, 2009 at 2:43 pm
I attended a seminar a few weeks ago at the Options Institute, the educational division of the CBOE. Allen Reminick, one of the presenters, uses cycles in a lot of his stock market forecasting materials. He has a monthly letter called the Reminick Letter as well as a company called Blue Apple Trends which has automated trading programs available that incorporate his cycle work. There is also a blog/forum called Time and Cycles for anyone interested in learning more. I found the Options Institute presentation fascinating because he made the cycles seem so predictable.
October 8th, 2009 at 11:15 pm
Bottom line: Don’t mess with the man.
Slaves have known that for centuries. And those that didn’t, …
October 29th, 2009 at 4:35 am
[...] Man Treated As Rat – The story of Martin Armstrong is a fascinating one that I started following last year. A [...]