Yesterday’s moonshot appears to have been a one day wonder. As of noon, we are down 2 hund, and have given all of yesterdays gains back.
Its a bullbear slugfest:
>
Rock’em Sock’em hat tip Andrew!
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof. —John Kenneth Galbraith
Knowing that the vote over the weekend in Greece was really a referendum on Euro membership, a majority of the Greek Parliament said yes to staying. European Finance Ministers meet again on Wednesday to solidify the 2nd bailout package for Greece at the same time hopefully a deal is consummated between Greece and its creditors this week. The Greek 14.5b euro bond that matures on March 20th is up by 2 pts. The optimism that all will be completed and contained AGAIN to Greece has yields lower in Portugal, Spain and Italy. The iTraxx Financial Index is also narrower by...
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October 30th, 2009 at 1:08 pm
BR: You’re not surprised by this, are you? With the media/cheerleaders/analysts, etc. all touting the return of growth and the President telling us the recession was over, you would have thought we would have seen astounding volume. Instead, volume was lower than the previous sell off days.
There is going to be a mass exodus of panic as we hit the end of the year. We have meager volume again today, so the rush hasn’t even begun. As I said the other day, a couple more down days like this will force volume selling. It’ll happen – give it time.
~~~
BR Obviously not.
The surprising move was yesterday’s silliness . . .
October 30th, 2009 at 1:11 pm
The stimulus ran out.
Yesterday’s number gives some a false impression of the future (as it was designed to do).
So it’s either more stimulus or address the weakness of the underlying economy.
Guess which one the politicians will chose.
October 30th, 2009 at 1:16 pm
Down 250!
October 30th, 2009 at 1:22 pm
Time to watch CNBC monkey’s.
October 30th, 2009 at 1:24 pm
Waiting for……”but the market is off its lows for the day”. LOL.
October 30th, 2009 at 1:24 pm
BR: Yes, that was an excellent post. And yesterday’s move was pure silliness and a classic setup. Happened to see Fast Money yesterday (it’s the only show on during my daily workout – and a truly awful one at that). The swagger and smirks from the panel when Rosenberg was talking made me want to throw a dumbell through the screen. I still don’t understand how any of those guys make money. Adami seems to be an exception but the others, whoa, they just don’t get it.
October 30th, 2009 at 1:25 pm
Harry,
I do have one question, a little off topic…you are not, by chance, manic-depressive are you? That would be charecterized by periods of euphoria and often followed by periods of melancholy. If you are, there are medications that can stabilize you…
..just wondering..
B in T
October 30th, 2009 at 1:26 pm
Mannwich: MW is the best for spinning headlines like that. I have some classics saved from them. When the market is up it either “powers forward” or “rockets”. When it’s down, it merely “stumbles” or “market closed down but above lows”. I check in a few times a day just for laughs.
October 30th, 2009 at 1:27 pm
Maybe volatility is back?? A couple more days of 200+ point swings were what occurred before we got the 700 point moves, right?
October 30th, 2009 at 1:28 pm
As a bit of a bear, I feel a little like this today:
http://www.faz.net/s/Rub9CD731D06F17450CB39BE001000DD173/Doc~EFB197957C43943A4ACAD324F9F075ED3~ATpl~Ecommon~SMed.html
October 30th, 2009 at 1:29 pm
The headlines are blaming a quote delay issue and pointing to a technology system restart.
Sounds like they got scared about a market crash and rebooted the servers to put out the fire.
What do you think?
October 30th, 2009 at 1:30 pm
the pig has to make it through the python at some point. maybe we’re there but i’m not ready to short the market yet. as we’ve seen TPTB have many tricks in their bag and they have no hesitation in using them concurrently.
October 30th, 2009 at 1:33 pm
might, as well, chisel this QOTD:
“”Nothing in the world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent. The slogan, ‘Press on,’ has solved and always will solve the problems of the human race.” —Calvin Coolidge
here.
~~
with the, above, charts..
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d1
‘Paperback’ is being ‘bid’ for..again, looks like it might make it off the mat..
Who has bets on SPX sub-900 by EOY ’009?
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_INX&t=f
October 30th, 2009 at 1:34 pm
FAZ is on tear.
October 30th, 2009 at 1:34 pm
Cue the circuit-breakers. Let’s not all run to the exits at once now. But, hey, this economy and markets are totally healthy and the recovery is underway.
October 30th, 2009 at 1:36 pm
Saw this comment on other forum. lol
I can see th CNBC headlines now : “Dow finished up a whopping 26 ponts off its lows for the day to end strong at 9603.22″
October 30th, 2009 at 1:37 pm
Bruce: No I’m not manic depressive. Simple swing trader. My mini economic boom was priced in, I realized it and got out of my positions last week. Yesterday was further support that the mini boom wasn’t such an inventory rebuild as I thought it would be. Confirmation.
Also, I don’t know if you read my posts yesterday but my retail outlets have a disastrous October. Worst they’ve ever had. I believe this holiday season is going to be dismal. Unemployment is much higher and confidence is down. That’s not a good combo in any scenario. So the “experts” looking for a BTE holiday season are smoking crack IMO.
October 30th, 2009 at 1:39 pm
the market is just down a touch
October 30th, 2009 at 1:40 pm
Wanger is nimble. It’s a good thing.
October 30th, 2009 at 1:42 pm
Reality is setting in. One report today showed that wages and benefits (to include health care) rose a paltry 1.5% during the last year which was the smallest increase in the Employment Cost Index since record keeping began in 1982. 1.5% is < the "official" inflation rate. Consumers appear to be determined to save. If wages are not keeping up with rising costs then there is a smaller disposable income pie that savings "need" to be sliced from hence less money for spending. The 3rd quarter's 3.5% GDP gain was fueled by a 3.4% increase in consumer spending and we all know who funded this. Look for more of your taxpayer dollars going for the same purposes going forward. This will put a bid under equities and the USD will weaken due partly to money being put to work. And partly due to the rest of the world getting tired of supporting our fiscally reckless ways (consumption). At least, that's how I see it…
October 30th, 2009 at 1:45 pm
I’m buying for my IRA. I like the news on the economic front, and let’s not forget that only about 15% of the stimulus has been spent.
October 30th, 2009 at 1:45 pm
Silliness ? Dennis just declared on CNBC that “we have this silly 240 pts drop in Dow”. Between BR and Dennis, I am having a hard time figuring out who’s declaration of silliness is more silly.
Oh but don’t worry. Dennis said that we won’t close in red for October.
Joe Terranova has been saying “We will go higher by the end of the year, because money managers who missed out will have to chase performance”, as if that’s not happened. A couple of days ago, Doug Kass simply responded to him saying “But it’s too predictable”. I am not sure Terranova understood what Kass meant.
October 30th, 2009 at 1:50 pm
i love the smell of a crashing S&P in the afternoon-
lol
October 30th, 2009 at 1:57 pm
Idiot: Terranova also bet Rosenberg a dinner at any NY restaurant that the indices would end on their highs of the year. He’s not too bright. He also keeps buying RIMM since 80.
FWIW: BR’s declaration is not silly, it’s very smart. Kneale is the embodiment of silliness and I’ve only seen him on clips on various sites. For a guy with a Bachelor’s Degree in Journalism, he sure thinks he knows the economy better than anyone else.
October 30th, 2009 at 2:01 pm
CNBC is hilarious. The banner says “472 of S&P 500 down today” Then they announce “Not all stocks are lower today” and put up a chart of the winner and begin to discuss what the viewer should buy.
October 30th, 2009 at 2:01 pm
Buy those dips, frankie. Such a good patriot, you are.
October 30th, 2009 at 2:03 pm
Transports are down 11% in seven sessions even with yesterday’s miracle. Wonder what that’s telling us?
Dow volume is rather light right now, some spikes on the biggest moves down today, but light overall. It would be nice on the short side to see some volume and selling into the close. That could be a huge setup for a rather substantial drop next week.
Regarding Wall St. speak, one of the dumbest lines repeated constantly is, “everyone is expecting a correction, so the market will keep going up”. Been hearing that for 3 months or so. I guess the solution to keep the market going up to infinity is to keep thinking it will go down. It’s that easy!
October 30th, 2009 at 2:05 pm
HW,
I was being a bit silly myself. I am a bear and I will make money if the market goes down. But I will receive far more pleasure seeing Dennis, Kudlow and Kramer getting humiliated if the market indeed crashes.
BTW, Barry is a one heck of a smart guy. Respect his blog a lot, and it has helped me immensely. I agree with his latest call about a tired rally. But he also said a few days before that this rally has more legs. He can’t always be right. but he is nimble and that’s what matters.
October 30th, 2009 at 2:06 pm
cortez: Did they interrupt their own show yet with Breaking News about a poll CNBC conducted with a “half dozen or so” experts who say the SPX will finish at 1200 this year? That’s CNBC at it’s finest.
Barry when are you in Detroit? I’m heading there on business next week. If you’re in town for a talk, I’d love to know where to try and catch it.
October 30th, 2009 at 2:07 pm
franklin likes to catch some falling knives. the good time to be a contrarian is when the market first turns.
every small bidness owner i know is a swing trader. a lot of free time when you own a bidness, especially retail.
ahab, Ben is loading up the helicopters and will be blasting Ride of the Valkeries soon when he drops his cash.
October 30th, 2009 at 2:11 pm
Some noise just doesn’t last very long in the market….
I think it’s more interesting to note the relative rates at which stock prices changed over the last two days. It took nearly all day yesterday for the market to rise to the level it did, yet it looks like it took about a third of the time to fall back to where the market closed the day before yesterday. Without getting into a discussion about the proper level of stock prices, those relative changes might suggest quite a bit about investor psychology when it comes to measuring their tolerance for risk, whether through loss aversion (selling panic) or through their “greedy” impulses (buying frenzy).
October 30th, 2009 at 2:14 pm
unless you picked the top, it’s a wild bear ride, i shorted ten etf’s monday around noon after the breakdown, then they reversed hard, and of course u feel like an idiot, i almost sold on wed but did not cause we did not close the gap at 104 on the spy and then thursday i just put in sell orders on all of them and took the opening price, u knew they were going to jack it up, many stocks, example rimm had been selling off for 25-30 days, i reshorted some stuff yesterday afternoon when the dow was up 150 because the internals were not following and got stopped out at 175……..even when the dow went over 200 the internals did not follow which made me mad, lol, we have not had a vicious friday in eons, not alot of folks were expecting it, i had expected a revisit too 9659 on the dow, which will probably happen monday……………they will most likely ram it back up for next fridays stellar unemployment report, and u know ben will ease forever…………dollar needs too rest…………the volume on it has been pretty good, would like too see how it does on a pullback, copper is finally acting like it did at 4 bucks, and india is fading, watch india it has a huge gap, very huge from may, 5% for a major index is rare
October 30th, 2009 at 2:16 pm
I love when a guest goes on a bearish rant and and the host asks the guest “what would you buy today?”. I am waiting for a guest to say “NOTHING!, but I would sell XYZ corp”
October 30th, 2009 at 2:17 pm
Ironman: No one has a trailing stop to stop out at 25% profit. But as BR once said: The market eats like a bird, but $hits like a bear.
October 30th, 2009 at 2:18 pm
ironman: Good post. What the “experts” fail to realize is that last Nov. when unemployment was 6.7%, people were freaked that the world was ending but most felt it was saved. And there was hope: a new President was coming in. A sort of calm weirdness overtook the psyche of the public. Most people weren’t really that concerned that they might lose their job. That accelerated in early ’09.
This year, it’s completely different. 10% unemployment, 401k’s were decimated, and the hope has turned somewhat pessimistic regarding the President. Now people, who have been burned badly since last Nov., are very aware that it could happen again. “Maybe my job’s not so safe”. “What if I lose the house?”, etc.
Very different psyche from last year. You wouldn’t know it though from listening to the “experts” who tell us how the consumer is just “dying to get out there and spend”. Fools.
October 30th, 2009 at 2:32 pm
The pessimism on the main street is quite higher than last October. Last year it was panic. Panic comes quickly and hope can spring very fast from a short duration panicky situation.
What the main street is feeling now is different. It’s not panic, it’s slow death of hope. It’s pessimism, frustration and anger. Right now we are a much sadder society than what it was an year ago.
October 30th, 2009 at 2:35 pm
the ONLY time i watch CNBC is in the evening on big down days-
so today may be one of those days-
I just can’t stand those losers- always justifying why the market should be higher- NEVER justifying why it should be lower-
Kneale- that dude- needs my fist in his stupid big bird face
October 30th, 2009 at 2:38 pm
ahab said: “Kneale – that dude- needs my fist in his stupid big bird face.”
LOL!! That just made my day.
October 30th, 2009 at 2:45 pm
MEH-
got your link on Andy’s site re Fall of the Republic-
will check it out- like looking at all angles-
thanks
October 30th, 2009 at 2:47 pm
One Day Wonder? hardly. It was the systematic and insidious tactic of the market to tithe the poor for the pockets of the rich, otherwise known as a distribution day.
October 30th, 2009 at 2:49 pm
the VIX is suddenly at 30, wow!
October 30th, 2009 at 2:50 pm
just keep the sound off, it saves your sanity……………todays mood, imho, is different strokes for different folks, workers with long history and good jobs are going about business……..management is going threw another round of budgeting and looking at the numbers, and again the problems are the same, wtf do you budget for on costs, will oil be 65 or 140, you take any business that has to deal with a commodity component and you’re exasperated………governments, wtf, do you do, do you really believe tax receipts will be up to balance what you didn’t make last year…………so they are nervous and unsure, the ones without jobs, well, not hopeful but getting used to it………many starting to think what can I do to make cash, mow a lawn, paint a house, clean a house, when unemployment runs out even though it may have only been avg of 1,400 it has been keeping you afloat……………on average you got 70% of folks getting by, by and large they have tuned out from the news several months ago, they do not want to hear it……….or even discuss it, makes em scared
October 30th, 2009 at 2:52 pm
Karen: Absolutely dead on. It was a day for suckers. Managers are locking in profits and yesterday gave them the ammo they needed.
Again, it would be nice to see some volume selling into close today for clarity into next week. However, the low volume sell offs are the worst for bulls. They’ll justify buying opportunities on “low volume” pull backs. Opposite of what many bears were doing all summer long up until last Thursday.
October 30th, 2009 at 2:57 pm
torrie: As a small business owner, this October has been pretty frightening. Last October, when the world was ending, I thought stabilization next year would bring some sales back in. But that’s not the case. Talked with another retailer a few minutes ago who was reiterating what I heard yesterday that it was his worst October in 10 years of business.
A light bulb went off that not only is the consumer less able to purchase discretionary goods this year for reasons I laid out but also, everyone seems to be sick. While H1N1 is not a killer as far as humans are concerned, it’s definitely a killer at the retail end. Just something else to throw into why I think this holiday season will be dismal.
October 30th, 2009 at 2:58 pm
It’s funny. One of my stops triggered Wednesday, and then the big pop yesterday. I didn’t feel too bad about it though, because I just saw yesterday as an apparition. A ghost of the summer rally which is either dead or near death. Just too overbought for the conditions that still exist.
Question: Does anyone still subscribe to the hypothesis that states the market trades 6 months into the future? I’m just not sure of that anymore.
October 30th, 2009 at 3:00 pm
Summer Heights
Summer rally had me a blast –
Summer rally, happened so fast
I bought some Fannie, GS and C
Some REITs and trash, like CIT
Summer days driftin’ away,
to uh-oh those summer heights
Tell me more, tell me more, did you ride the QE?
Tell me more, tell me more, like, did you buy AIG?
The Fed got friendly, holdin’ my hand –
Got gold and silver, and Krugerrands
Stocks were sweet, P/E thirteen
GE was cheap, you know what I mean
Summer heat, bulls and stocks meet,
but uh-oh those summer heights
Tell me more, tell me more,
Was the rally for real?
Tell me more, tell me more,
Was your bonus a steal?
It turned colder, that’s where it ends –
So I told her I’d prefer bonds
Then we all saw Karen’s Top
Wonder where the selling will stop?
Summer dreams ripped at the seams, but oh,
those summer…. heights….
October 30th, 2009 at 3:05 pm
ashpelham2, 13? Mish debunked that myth in a recent post.
October 30th, 2009 at 3:07 pm
@lb: LOL!
October 30th, 2009 at 3:08 pm
i wonder how far it needs to go before the bottom just drops out completley- considering it is just trading algorithms making the decisions- and-
the engineered rally- what a joke-
that BB thinks he can correct world economic imbalances by QE and ZIRP-
and the tax credits to stimulate spending have been proven to be temporary phenomena-
zero staying power and only hurts future demand-
what next pray tell
October 30th, 2009 at 3:09 pm
Thank God for stop loss orders….
I had just bought a bunch of ETFs/stocks on the long side on what I believed to be breakouts… Ooops! Better to make a small mistake than a large disastrous one…
On the bright side, I did buy UUP calls and XLF puts a week or so ago =) Large down days are certainly way more interesting than up days…
HCF
October 30th, 2009 at 3:14 pm
ashpelham2: What was the market looking at in 10/07 at 14k? Sure wasn’t looking 6 months into the future. Another one of the dumb “truisms” of markets.
October 30th, 2009 at 3:14 pm
i wonder if Joe Terranova is feeling any remorse in the dinner bet w/ Rosenberg-
that Rosenberg ignored- as if he would have dinner with such rube
October 30th, 2009 at 3:15 pm
Yesterday, BR asked if the run up was the Waterloo of the bears. Apparently, the bears are Wellington’s coalition forces in that analogy (yes, I know the battle ain’t over).
HW: Weren’t you calling for a sustained recovery a couple of weeks ago – something akin to a new era of prosperity? I seem to remember you posting that opinion repeatedly. Maybe I’m wrong, but that’s how I remember it.
October 30th, 2009 at 3:19 pm
Harry,
I am wearing new sweatshirt if that helps, well at least new for me, 2 bucks at Salvation Army, they have half price sales on Wednesday. On Tuesday the zipper on my jeans broke and I thought, crap, this will cost 15 bucks at the cleaners for repair and the health care worker who takes care of my 97 year old grandma and 73 year old mother in the late stages of alzheimer takes them too salvation army every wednesday. So, I gave her a list of clothers to buy for me
October 30th, 2009 at 3:24 pm
Marcus: Sold all my long positions last week and initiated shorts via etfs: DXD and QID.
torrie: That pretty much sums up a big group of consumers right now.
October 30th, 2009 at 3:25 pm
Sell Mortimer Sell!!!!
October 30th, 2009 at 3:25 pm
ashpelham2: I just realized you asked if our business is consumer discretionary or staples. Firmly discretionary 100%.
October 30th, 2009 at 3:28 pm
My friend called who is watching CNBC. He said they are spinning today’s sell off because the “month of October is still positive if we close above the very important 9712 mark”. Too funny. Not sure why they think 9712 is all that important but it must give them something to talk about. I can’t bring myself to watch. Only Fast Money at the gym – not by choice. Today will be fun though.
October 30th, 2009 at 3:28 pm
Has anyone been watching the action in Nov 09 GS puts? 155s to 125s have been unbelievable.
October 30th, 2009 at 3:37 pm
“This is what happens when one tells a fish story, children.”
The “change & hope-fools” proclaim a v-i-c-t-o-r-y!
Oops too soon!
Then the truth bursts out…
fish story:
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/fish%20story
October 30th, 2009 at 3:40 pm
GS has a huge 1 year H&S and ten year flat support line is 140, not surprising. They also have to reduce there VAR per the FED by Dec. 1, unless they get an extension
October 30th, 2009 at 3:54 pm
HarryWanger: What kind of retail are you in and why do you travel across half the country to do it?
October 30th, 2009 at 3:57 pm
Harry W…Thanks for the reply. I was asking to gain some better idea of your retail customer. I know all I need to know with your reply. Seems like discretionary spending is going to tighten some more. Sorry, it hurts. Man, I already miss the good old days of new cars, fancy trips, long cigars, and Gold Cards….
At least I still have the women: the one I’ve been married to for 11 years, and the two little women she gave me…
I just think what we are seeing is no longer “possibly” a generational change, but “most likely”. Still, on the bright side, this too shall pass. We’ve been through recessions before, we’ve had hard times…It’s just been a while since we’ve had a beater like this one, and it’s steeper than first thought.
October 30th, 2009 at 4:17 pm
One more thing….9712 being the mark for a non-negative October…Guess what we closed at today?????
October 30th, 2009 at 4:27 pm
ashpelham2 Says:
October 30th, 2009 at 4:17 pm
One more thing….9712 being the mark for a non-negative October…Guess what we closed at today?????
End of fiscal year?
October 30th, 2009 at 4:52 pm
CNBC Line:
“Stocks Sell Off but Finish Flat for Month”
October 30th, 2009 at 4:56 pm
We were so close to Red October™…. Negative November just doesn’t have the same ring to it…..
October 30th, 2009 at 5:14 pm
LB @ 3pm — Very ingenious and comical!
I think smart money sold into the rally yesterday. While oil was down a ton today, gold closed relatively unchanged and silver only lost 1/2 its earlier session losses as the USD was rallying. Not a one day trade does a trend make but if metals start to rally with the dollar what does that signify?
October 30th, 2009 at 5:23 pm
m in nola @ 4:52-
well- we’ll count that as a win then-
:D lmao
October 30th, 2009 at 5:31 pm
The end of 2009 is going to be very very interesting.
Quite a few Baby Boomer punters got BACK TO EVEN at SPX 1100 (Karen’s Top) and now they are done with stocks for ever.
Wait until the insurance companies, pension funds and university endowments start de-risking.
Wait until JOHNNY hears from BRIAN that “the top is in” and that we may not be “out of the woods” now that the “green shoots” have been smoked by the boyz at those summer barbecues and pool parties.
“Brian, it’s Johnny, I’m scared. Martha says if I lose money in the market she won’t have sex with me. Get me outta this market, Brian….”
October 30th, 2009 at 6:13 pm
Idiotinvestor2 @ 2:05
I believe that Barry called for a 5-15% correction possibly followed by a new high. He could still be right on that one. This rally may still have “more legs” before it takes a serious dunk.
October 30th, 2009 at 6:32 pm
I am amazed you guys still watch CNBC.
October 30th, 2009 at 8:28 pm
I only bother to turn CNBC on for entertainment value on big down days. Any other time, they are intolerable with their sell side bullish bias.
@CNBC Sucks – what do you watch?
October 30th, 2009 at 9:02 pm
I loved the CNBC headline “stocks finish up for the month”!
October 30th, 2009 at 9:10 pm
Vanguard is slowing withdrawals! I made a withdrawal from Vanguard a week ago, normally I RECEIVE the check in 4 business days. I checked today and my withdrawal is still in process!!!! WTF???!!! They held it until month end, normally it’s a 1 day turnaround because I receive a check, not a transfer, easily within a week.
Big, conservative Vanguard is holding individual disbursements a week til monthend.
October 30th, 2009 at 9:21 pm
I am short transparency.
October 30th, 2009 at 10:00 pm
@ cortezj29
These days, for all my business and financial news, I start at the Ritholtz blog and go from there. ;)
And I occassionally Google News what Marc Faber said last.
October 31st, 2009 at 2:58 am
Marcus Aurelius Says:
HW: Weren’t you calling for a sustained recovery a couple of weeks ago – something akin to a new era of prosperity? I seem to remember you posting that opinion repeatedly. Maybe I’m wrong, but that’s how I remember it.
HW kept calling for a Mini-boom and succeeding in a trend/swing trade, which was much to the chagrin of those of us who realize otherwise in the macro environment. The problem was in communication of what we were discussing. I noted here: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/readings/ and here: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/readings/#comment-226000 and gave HW credit for making money in the propped up market, yet said I patently disagree with the fact that it is an “economic mini-boom” and in actuality was driven mostly by financial smoke and mirrors, with the devaluation of the dollar and carry trade behind much of the stock market “recovery.”
I have since noted that i believe Mr. Wanger was actually bullshitting us a great deal of the time for his own enjoyment, and is actually adept at recognizing trends in the real business world. Nimble here is the key word. His arguments for beating earnings, etc, have changed tune in recent weeks. I do not know if this is from personal experience with his own business, osmosis effect from hanging out with us economic bears too long, or he was just playing the fool for shits n’ giggles, but barry noted it when the change occured. I’d like to talk to the guy and see what the reality is and come to a clearer debate on the economy, mini-boom, market rally, etc.
As for my own stance, if it has not been seen from various statements in the last couple of months, see:
Intermediate top in 1062-1174 range
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/09/friday-reading-2/#comment-219427
SELL LONGS NOW! October 21:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/wednesday-reads-102109/#comment-228276
Not that anybody is reading this, due to late night posting again, but hey, let me know HW. . . and bsneath, if it turns out like I thought, and somebody actually was reading my late night muntered rantings from a blog, you’re very welcome.
October 31st, 2009 at 3:29 am
leftback at 5:31pm “Baby Boomer punters got …. and now they …. Wait until the insurance companies, pension funds and university endowments start de-risking” .. I got a Dear Pensioner letter this week. I was expecting a small checkbook kick in 3.5 years. Now the goal post is 13.5 years. Its Greg0658s turn to have the rug pulled. Ya sorta deflationary.
October 31st, 2009 at 4:32 am
I know people who got stopped out on the 1-day wonder and others whose collars were struck in either direction. It’s tough to be persistent without a position allowing you persistence.
October 31st, 2009 at 9:08 am
I am very bullish….. at Dow5000
This manic market is way overbought.
NEW INVESTMENT STRATEGY: EXTREME DREAMING