Comments on: Ongoing Credit Contraction http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/ongoing-credit-contraction/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Tue, 14 Feb 2012 19:05:02 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.5 By: CDizzle http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/ongoing-credit-contraction/comment-page-1/#comment-224485 CDizzle Sat, 10 Oct 2009 23:56:52 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=40695#comment-224485 Good to see the H&S pattern ain't dead yet. ;-) Good to see the H&S pattern ain’t dead yet. ;-)

]]> By: Harry Wagner http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/ongoing-credit-contraction/comment-page-1/#comment-224297 Harry Wagner Fri, 09 Oct 2009 22:42:06 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=40695#comment-224297 @Ben22 - But can't they just sweep the credit contraction under the rug like everything esle and call it good, because I don't want anything getting in the way of this boom cycle we got going on here. @Ben22 – But can’t they just sweep the credit contraction under the rug like everything esle and call it good, because I don’t want anything getting in the way of this boom cycle we got going on here.

]]> By: skysurfer http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/ongoing-credit-contraction/comment-page-1/#comment-224218 skysurfer Fri, 09 Oct 2009 18:52:30 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=40695#comment-224218 Why is everybody all surprised that retail sales were good in September? We had a late labor day and thus a later back to school for a significant part of the nation. Late enough that one could wait until September to start school purchases. I know that we waited until after school started to buy school supplies, so we could make one trip. If Easter is in March, everyone makes a big deal about retail sales being skewed. Why not the same intellectual honesty when a much bigger retail event, back-to-school, is later than normal? Oh, yeah! It wouldn't be a "green shoot". In case your wondering, I paid cash only and about half of what we did last year due to some screaming deals. I love me some deflation. Why is everybody all surprised that retail sales were good in September? We had a late labor day and thus a later back to school for a significant part of the nation. Late enough that one could wait until September to start school purchases. I know that we waited until after school started to buy school supplies, so we could make one trip. If Easter is in March, everyone makes a big deal about retail sales being skewed. Why not the same intellectual honesty when a much bigger retail event, back-to-school, is later than normal? Oh, yeah! It wouldn’t be a “green shoot”. In case your wondering, I paid cash only and about half of what we did last year due to some screaming deals. I love me some deflation.

]]> By: Kort http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/ongoing-credit-contraction/comment-page-1/#comment-224208 Kort Fri, 09 Oct 2009 18:33:58 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=40695#comment-224208 You can have the best retail in 10 months because the prior 9 months were terrible and it's back to school. People who couldn't afford (job loss, no credit card) to buy earlier still aren't buying. People buying now are people with some means and/or aren't scared. It's like...Months 1 through 9: nobody spends Month 10...some people spend a few dollars. Presto, month 10 is the BEST! You can have the best retail in 10 months because the prior 9 months were terrible and it’s back to school. People who couldn’t afford (job loss, no credit card) to buy earlier still aren’t buying. People buying now are people with some means and/or aren’t scared.

It’s like…Months 1 through 9: nobody spends
Month 10…some people spend a few dollars.
Presto, month 10 is the BEST!

]]> By: ben22 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/ongoing-credit-contraction/comment-page-1/#comment-224184 ben22 Fri, 09 Oct 2009 17:48:00 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=40695#comment-224184 Harry Wanger says: "I don’t quite get the credit contraction’s role in this economic recovery. " Well, that would explain everything then wouldn't it. You manage OPM? Wow.... Harry Wanger says:

“I don’t quite get the credit contraction’s role in this economic recovery. ”

Well, that would explain everything then wouldn’t it. You manage OPM? Wow….

]]> By: rootless_cosmopolitan http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/ongoing-credit-contraction/comment-page-1/#comment-224178 rootless_cosmopolitan Fri, 09 Oct 2009 17:29:20 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=40695#comment-224178 Harry Wanger, "The link referencing percentage change is much more telling. Although I’m not sure if that reflects inflation or nominal dollar terms that the percentage is based upon." This is based on nominal data. You make a valid point here. I agree that there would be more information in normalized data. One could also normalize the change in credit relative to nominal GDP. After all, it's the debt relative to income what's important for the ability to load on more debt and to pay off debt and interest. rc Harry Wanger,

“The link referencing percentage change is much more telling. Although I’m not sure if that reflects inflation or nominal dollar terms that the percentage is based upon.”

This is based on nominal data. You make a valid point here. I agree that there would be more information in normalized data. One could also normalize the change in credit relative to nominal GDP. After all, it’s the debt relative to income what’s important for the ability to load on more debt and to pay off debt and interest.

rc

]]> By: HarryWanger http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/ongoing-credit-contraction/comment-page-1/#comment-224174 HarryWanger Fri, 09 Oct 2009 17:20:06 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=40695#comment-224174 socajoe: The link referencing percentage change is much more telling. Although I'm not sure if that reflects inflation or nominal dollar terms that the percentage is based upon. socajoe: The link referencing percentage change is much more telling. Although I’m not sure if that reflects inflation or nominal dollar terms that the percentage is based upon.

]]> By: rootless_cosmopolitan http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/ongoing-credit-contraction/comment-page-1/#comment-224172 rootless_cosmopolitan Fri, 09 Oct 2009 17:18:16 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=40695#comment-224172 Oh, I forgot to mention that the 25 trillion dollars of household and business debt is the amount w/o the debt of financial institutions. With financial institution, private debt amounts to 41 trillion dollars. rc Oh, I forgot to mention that the 25 trillion dollars of household and business debt is the amount w/o the debt of financial institutions. With financial institution, private debt amounts to 41 trillion dollars.

rc

]]> By: socaljoe http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/ongoing-credit-contraction/comment-page-1/#comment-224171 socaljoe Fri, 09 Oct 2009 17:16:54 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=40695#comment-224171 A chart showing 60 years of data is meaningless if presented in nominal dollar terms. I suspect, normalized for inflation, it would be much less "astonishing". A chart showing 60 years of data is meaningless if presented in nominal dollar terms. I suspect, normalized for inflation, it would be much less “astonishing”.

]]> By: HarryWanger http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/ongoing-credit-contraction/comment-page-1/#comment-224170 HarryWanger Fri, 09 Oct 2009 17:14:40 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=40695#comment-224170 A bit off topic but any ideas about what to infer regarding GDP from today's trade numbers? A bit off topic but any ideas about what to infer regarding GDP from today’s trade numbers?

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