With September NFP due to come out tomorrow, it might behoove us to look beyond the month to month data to the longer term.

To do so, I direct your attention to at a recent report, America’s New Post-Recession Employment Arithmetic. It is an interesting, though somewhat dispiriting, review on the Employment situation, past present and future. The report comes from Advance Realty and Rutgers, and it reviews the past few decades employment data to discern what long term implications might be for employment in any economic recovery.

The key data points are:

• The Great 2007–2009 recession is the worst employment setback in the United States since the Great Depression.

• In the twenty months from December 2007 (the start of the recession) to August 2009 (the last month of available data as of this analysis), the nation lost more than 7.0 million private-sector jobs.

• The recession followed a very much-below-normal economic expansion (November 2001–December 2007) that was characterized by relatively weak private-sector employment growth of approximately 1 million jobs per year.

• This was less than one-half of the job-growth gains of the two preceding expansions (1982–1990 and 1991–2001), when average annual private-sector employment grew by 2.4 million jobs per year and 2.2 million jobs per year, respectively.

• In the preceding two expansions combined, private-sector employment growth per year was approximately 435,000 jobs higher than the annual growth in the number
of people in the labor force.employment deficit.

• The weak economic expansion sandwiched between two recessions (2001, and 2007–2009) produced a lost employment decade.

• As of August 2009, the nation had 1.3 million (1,256,000) fewer private- sector jobs than in December 1999. This is the first time since the Great Depression of the 1930s that America will have an absolute loss of jobs over the course of a decade.

• From 1980-2000, the US gained a 35.5 million private-sector jobs. During the current decade, America has lost more than 1.7 million private-sector jobs.

• Total “employment deficit” could approach 9.4 million private-sector jobs by December 2009.

The “Harsh Arithmetic of the Employment Deficit” means that we will not likely return to 2007 employment levels until (ugh) 2017.

The entire report is very readable, and chock full of charts and tables.

>

click for larger chart
Private Sector UE

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Hat tip Economix

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Source:
America’s New Post-Recession Employment Arithmetic
James W. Hughes and Joseph J. Seneca
Rutgers University, September 2009

http://www.policy.rutgers.edu/News/A&RR-FINAL_9.30.pdf

Category: Data Analysis, Employment

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

103 Responses to “Post-Recession Employment Arithmetic”

  1. Dennis says:

    Not pretty

  2. cvienne says:

    Great reason for a stock market rally!

    When you can fire all your workers, and your widgets get up off the assembly line, walk out the door, and mail themselves to your customers, profitability SOARS!

    Now that Obama has convinced everyone that “stocks are cheap” (back in March), when, pray tell is he going to let on that companies ought to plow some of those profits into hiring to help get jobs back on track.

    Oh no, he wouldn’t want to do that now would he?

    It’s tough when you hitch your ‘popularity’ to S&P performance isn’t it? Or, am I missing a long line of other accomplishments here?

  3. VennData says:

    Many Americans haven’t educated themselves to compete. This dispersion will only get more bifurcated.

    Compare that to the millions with jobs, rising productivity, and rising corporate profits and you’re getting a look at the real two Americas. In Chicago, they took care of this by beating the smart kid to death.

    http://www.cnn.com/2009/CRIME/09/30/illinois.teen.beating/

  4. austincompany says:

    As a small business owner, I would feel better if the Obama administration was actively doing things to help us hire more employees. But alas, with the prospect of higher taxes, health care mandates, cap and trade rules, etc, we are not expanding, we are not hiring nor are we looking to do so in the future.

    As long as this administration only looks at businesses and corporations as large pots of money and evilness, I can guarantee that the US will never have a vibrant employment hiring environment.

  5. manhattanguy says:

    Where is Harry?

    I’ve said this before. The positive data you have been seeing the last 2 months or so was just an aberration. Double dip recession is inevitable.

    First-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose for the first time in four weeks, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The number of initial claims in the week ending Sept. 26 rose 17,000 to 551,000. It’s the highest level since before the Labor Day holiday.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-rebound-in-latest-week-2009-10-01

  6. austincompany:
    Can you back up the claim of your last sentence? Because the first half of your rant doesn’t go with the second.

  7. jc says:

    Trimtabs has another bad employment forecast based on plunging income tax receipts.Methinks there will be a “catchup” with these “light” US job loss numbers too, over a few months time span Trimtabs almost always is the more accurate than the gummint in forecasting job gains & losses.

  8. Moss says:

    The legacy of the great moderation, otherwise known as the conservative movement will linger for some time. Lets call it the great repression.

  9. austincompany says:

    Sorry if I was not clear. To put it another way, the Obama administration and the current Democratic congress is not friendly to business. Business creates most jobs. I own a business. I try to make money and then invest the money into the business. The prospect of higher taxes and other mandates that cost money make me want to keep the money and/or squirrel it away. By not investing the money I have in my business, it doesn’t grow. When it doesn’t grow, it doesn’t create jobs. Is that clear enough for you?

    If Obama and the Congress wanted to create jobs in the private sector, they would lower the corporate income ax rate, pass investment tax credit legislation and doe other things to help us – not tax us.

  10. jc says:

    Fed waiting til last day to file their Bloomberg FOIL appeal. Bloomberg filed on 11/8/08, wonder how long the Appeals court will take – and then an appeal to the Supremes, are we talking months or years.Justice delayed is justice denied!

    The Fed claims disclosure could result in bank runs & failures. Thats reassuring, makes you wonder whats so terrifying about the truth. I thought “the truth will set you free”?

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aSab0xkcV8jc

  11. Marcus Aurelius says:

    VennData:

    Yes. It would seem that the master plan of the people of Chicago to have their inner city kids beat the intelligent among themselves to death isn’t a very good for encouraging productivity among the future working class. This kind of thing doesn’t happen in the real America, where the reaction of those caught in a cycle of ignorance and despair and confined to our inner-city ghettos is to accept their lot in life without any social consequences or ramifications. I’ll bet Obama came up with the plan (he’s from Chicago, you know), and made sure he was out of the country when the first of the beatings went down. Everybody knows that criminality leads to poverty, hopelessness, and a struggle to survive on mean streets — and not the other way around.

  12. paulyarbles says:

    The bitter fruits of globalization have now ripened for American workers. It was stupid to believe that allowing American capital to invest in production in much poorer nations where labor has no rights would lead to some rising tide lifting all boats. The rest of the world’s workers are much much poorer and much much more numerous then we Americans. And they are just as smart.

    What were the assumptions? A form of racism or hyper-nationalism no doubt played a part. Are Chinese, East Europeans, Indians, etc. so inferior to us Americans that they can’t do our work given enough investment from American multinationals? I guess it must be the air that we Americans breathe that gives us such an advantage.

    Like water in a terrain without any barriers, wages in a world where companies can globally arbitrage labor will level out. Sadly for American workers, leveling means lower.

  13. Marcus Aurelius says:

    austincompany Says:

    Yeah — Obama’s tax increases on small businesses and his useless over-regulation of corporate interests led us directly to our current fiscal crisis. Goddamned liberals and their desire to pay as we go. It’s heresy, I tell you.

  14. spencerh says:

    Marcus: I practically fell out of my chair with laughter from your your comment to Venn. Bravo, sir.

  15. Marcus Aurelius says:

    austincompany:

    Oh yeah — I forgot: American corporations already pay the lowest taxes on the planet and receive more than their fair share of incentives and stimulus. If you can’t make it here, you must suck at running a business.

  16. willid3 says:

    austincompany i think we tried that experiment. for the last 8 years. and we can see the results today. every proposal for 8 years was suppose to create jobs. that what how it was ‘sold’. none of them ever lived up to that claim. not one. we have had the weakest job market for a decade. and if you really have a business, then you must also know who you sell to. unless you sell business to business, that means you sell to those who work for some one else. and even if you do sell to other business, you are now dependent on their customers, who at some point end up being some one elses employee, which means that your business has been hampered because their are fewer of those who can afford your offerings today than a decade ago. and those that do remain make less too, so they are only able to afford cheaper offerings.

  17. Bruce in Tn says:

    @manhattanguy:

    Harry has been, for want of a more precise term, “outed”…as an idiot. Could have been he was playing, could have been he was Barry, for all I know. But as I’ve said before, this blog site seems to me for more thoughtful investors, none of the “me first” stuff, and I like all the diverse opinions. But the Rah-Rah stuff, in the face of what will be a long slog out, gets tiresome after awhile. I don’t particularly like glum gusses, nor do I appreciate rose-colored Harrys….I do like realists who give a little thought to their opinions so that I might learn something.

    B in T

  18. sure it’s bad, but really it’s worse. Check out the FULL time jobs created over the last 8 years. Last I checked (during 2008) it was under 5%. That’s a 5% gain over an 8 year period, the previous worst 8 year period of job creation was about double that rate.

    So for the roughly 1.5% new entrants to the job market, only 1 in 3 got a full time job and the other 2 had to settle for a part time job. Then over the last 12 months we lose about 7 million jobs…. And you wonder why the last 8 years were so horrible, the only comparison has been the Great Depression.

  19. austincompany says:

    Marcus – “American corporations already pay the lowest taxes on the planet…” I am not sure where you get your information but the US has the second highest rate on Earth. The link below is not mine, nor do I knwo who the guy is, but his chart says it all;

    http://chrisbanescu.com/blog/2008/12/27/us-corporate-tax-rates-vs-all-oecd-countries/

    So instead of slamming me for looking out for my own interest and employees, get your own facts straight. By the way, I am making it quite well here. Since you are obviously one of the idiots that think all businesses suck and government is our only savior, I am happy to tell you that I have made lots of money. Heck, you or some of the other posters here might actually be helping me make more money in this great bull market of ours..

  20. willid3 says:

    austincompany I have seen studies based on real tax data that support what Marcus said. even a business publication (businessweek) published just such a story.

  21. manhattanguy says:

    Sold $UCO, stopped out on $RAX. Raising short positions.

    Here is another news for Harry

    ISM numbers are quite disappointing

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-sharply-lower-as-ism-disappoints-2009-10-01

  22. Marcus Aurelius says:

    austincompany:

    here you go:

    http://www.gao.gov/highlights/d08957high.pdf

    From the GAO, no less.

    As for your original comment, Obama and the Dems haven’t raised taxes on anyone. Don’t you think it’s a little strange that taxes have been cut for the last decade, or so, yet our deficits have exploded and the earning power of the average American has decreased during that same period? Where do you think all of that money went?

    Since you blame the aforementioned, I suppose you think more of the “conservative” (you can Use “Republican,” if you want) policies over the same period will really help you. Like I said, if you can’t make it here, you can’t make it anywhere (sideways HT to Sinatra).

  23. dss says:

    @austincompany

    What health care mandates are you subjected to? A good businessman never “just squirrels it away” when there are true business opportunities to be had. Obama needs to clean up the mess that 8 years of George Bush and 12 years of an ultra conservative congress who never saw a tax break they didn’t love, a regulation they couldn’t reverse, and business practices that Attila the Hun would love.

    What would satisfy you? What level of taxation for business owners seems fair to you? 10%? 5%? Zero?

  24. Marcus Aurelius says:

    austincompany:

    If you’ve made so much money, why are you looking for a gubment handout? You want ME to pay for you to expand your business? Why don’t you act like a responsible capitalist and take some of your riches and make a capital investment in your own business by hiring more employees?

    Your argument defeats itself.

  25. Bruce in Tn says:

    Well, I have read Jesse Livermore’s book, and like it. His trading rules, that were reiterated on Yahoo Finance today are worth reviewing.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Jesse-Livermore-Lessons-From-investopedia-3291641264.html?x=0

    Trading Rules

    The trading rules that follow are simple, and have been included in many trading plans by many traders since they were created nearly a century ago. They are still valid today, and were created under Jesse’s truism: “There is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be, because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.”

    Trade with the trend. Buy in a bull market, short in a bear market.
    Don’t trade when there aren’t clear opportunities.
    Trade using the pivotal points.
    Wait for the market to confirm opinion before entering. Patience leads to “the big money.”
    Let profits run. Close trades that show a loss (good trades generally show profit right away).
    Trade with a stop, and know it before you enter.
    Exit trades where the prospect of further profits is remote (trend is over or waning).
    Trade the leading stocks in each sector; trade the strongest stocks in a bull market, or the weakest stocks in a bear market.
    Don’t average down a losing position.
    Don’t meet a margin call; close the position instead.
    Don’t follow too many stocks.

  26. Mannwich says:

    @VennData: You and I agree on that. In a similar a vein, this morning my wife was openly asking why so many people are apparently rushing out to buy Sarah Palin’s new book. My simple reply was that “we are a country of morons”, who value stupidity and ignorance. We’re reaping the fruits of that labor (along with questionable multiple breeding by said stupid people) right now. Once we understand this fact, then everything else that’s going on makes total sense.

  27. Mannwich says:

    @austincompany: I might have been sleeping during the tax increase, but when did anyone’s taxes go up during the Obama administration thus far?

  28. HCF says:

    @Marcus, @austincompany -

    I try to be consistent on my philosophy: How about government neither help to create jobs, nor tax us into oblivion? Frankly, while the Obama administration hasn’t been great for small business, imho, neither has any administration in a VERY long time. In general, the federal government is very corporatist and ANTI-free market, as far as I am concerned. How else can we explain our bailouts of corporate dinosaurs and f**kups like GM, AIG, Fannie/Freddie, etc.

    I believe in free markets to the greatest extent possible. As an entrepreneur, austincompany, risking your own capital, I believe you are entitled to the fruits of your labors and not to be taxed unfairly relative to large corporations or individuals. On the other hand, no special treatment is warranted either….

    HCF

  29. Mannwich says:

    @austincompany: I believe Marcus is referring to the REAL amount of taxes that are ultimately paid by corporations, not the fake stated % amount that is almost never paid, unless your corporation has ridiculously incompetent tax accountants, of course.

  30. Mannwich says:

    @HCF: You and I agree on that. Our gov’t in both parties supports a corporatist (soft fascist, if you will) bent whereby all big corporations are supported, while small companies (see the small banks for this) are left to fend for themselves. It’s a symbiotic relationship between politicians and big corporations. If that isn’t obvious by now, I don’t know what is…….

  31. Marcus Aurelius says:

    HCF:

    Well said. What I can’t stomach is the idea that taxes have been increased when they haven’t, compounded by a guy who brags about his relative prosperity while claiming that the system is unfair to him.

  32. manhattanguy says:

    @Mannwich @ 10:32

    You hit the nail on the head

  33. Mannwich says:

    @MA: I’m having the same battle with my brother right now. It’s nauseating.

  34. dss says:

    @Marcus Aurelius

    Your comments are spot on. Not to mention health care mandates that have not been imposed, either.

  35. rootless_cosmopolitan says:

    austincompany,

    From the point of the strictly microscopical economic view of business owners taxes are always too high, workers want too high wages etc, because it all takes the form of costs that diminish the profits for the owners. Wouldn’t it be ideal to not pay taxes at all and have some nice slave laborers freely available who just work for an apple and an egg, if not for free? All the additional profits could be used to expand the business, which also would create additional jobs. Right?

    The problem is the microscopical view is a myopic view, since it doesn’t work in this way on the macro-economic scale. What happens, if no one pays taxes or gets any wages anymore? What seems to be of advantage for the individual business competing against all the other businesses has a different effect on the economy as a whole, since taxes mean demand coming from the government for the goods or services produced by businesses and wages/salaries mean demand coming from households for the goods and services produced by businesses. Decreasing tax revenue means decreasing government demand or the lower tax revenue has to be offset with an increase in government debt. Lower wages means less aggregate demand as well or the households have to offset the lower income with higher household debt. For the economic as a whole the equations of balance always have a left side that feeds back to the right side. To see the Big Picture you have to look at both sides of the equations.

    rc

  36. HCF says:

    @Mannwich:
    > Our gov’t in both parties supports a corporatist (soft fascist, if you will) bent whereby all big corporations are supported, while small companies (see the small banks for this) are left to fend for themselves.

    Well said! It always reminds me about how sick the hacks on CNBC make me sometimes. Always bitching about how anti-”free market” some people are for investigating anti-trust, insider trading, or some other corporate malfeasance. How is a monopoly or cheating outside investors supporting free markets?

    I am skeptical of any entity that is large enough to take away my individual freedom, be it the Federal Government or a large corporation with tentacles extending well into all arms of the government.

    HCF

  37. Bruce in Tn says:

    Some of this discourse reminds me of a scene from “The Big Red One”…pretty good war movie starring Lee Marvin as a sargeant in charge of youngsters in the war in Europe in WWII. One of the young guys gets shot toward the end of the movie and as they are looking at him, he asks,” Did you kill the guy that killed me?”…Then he dies…

    I agree taxes haven’t gone up. But we’ve already been shot, and they are going to get us. No matter which party is in power. We just haven’t seen the blood yet…

  38. Mannwich says:

    @HCF: I think it’s human nature to profess to love free markets and capitalism (and competition) when you’re on the outside looking in, but when you finally get that power (like those at CNBC, and their compadres in big corporate America), you all of a sudden become “anti-competition” in your deeds (but not words, important distinction), monopolistic, if you will. That’s why pure “Libertarianism” (as much as I respect it in it purest form) will never work with human beings involved. Human beings will always game the system to help them stay in power when the temptation arises to do so. They just will. That’s why smart laws and regulations are required – why we are “a Nation of Laws, Not Men”.

  39. franklin420d says:

    B in T – your 9:45, to the point, perfectly well said.

  40. Jeff,

    w/this: “Our gov’t in both parties supports a corporatist (soft fascist, if you will)”

    maybe Soft Fascism, rather than double-digit GOOG quotes, will be “the New Black” ?

  41. HCF says:

    @Mannwich:
    > Human beings will always game the system to help them stay in power when the temptation arises to do so.

    This is precisely why I believe in limited, smaller government… Right now both sides of the aisle game to system to increase the size of government knowing that their power and wealth is directly proportional to the number of programs they get passed through. While the left gets rightly railed for all their welfare, stimulus, socialized medicine, cap-and-trade, bleeding heart crap, I think the “free market right” doesn’t get crucified enough for corporate welfare, the military-industrial complex, and fighting all “enemies,” both legitimate (Al Qaeda, etc.), as well as various goblins and bogeymen…

    Pure libertarianism will never work as ideal due to human nature, but it would be best, imho, to move our government towards a system where the corruption and influence peddling is not so easy to get away with.

    HCF

  42. Mannwich says:

    Good points, HCF. I don’t necessarily disagree with any of that. I guess gaming the system is the new economy.

  43. HCF says:

    @ Mannwich:
    >That’s why smart laws and regulations are required – why we are “a Nation of Laws, Not Men”.

    I agree in general… To me, smart laws and regs. are essentially a limited number of (very important) laws that are vigorously enforced. Think about how much money we would save if we got rid of the DEA, and the “war on drugs,” legalize and tax most (currently illegal) drugs, and use part of the savings to treat the MEDICAL (not criminal) problem of drug addiction. We seem to criminalize everything, except the actual CRIMES that should be prosecuted…

    HCF

  44. rootless_cosmopolitan says:

    Mannwich,

    “I think it’s human nature to profess to love free markets and capitalism (and competition) when you’re on the outside looking in,…”

    I must be no human then, if love for the ideology of “free markets” is supposed to be engraved in human nature. I have always known that something about me is different. (Slurping another role of toilet tissue while I am writing this.)

    rc

  45. manhattanguy says:

    $TMV looks appealing and buying a little here.

    Agree w/Mannwich on the human nature. It’s sad, but it’s true.

  46. Rikky says:

    we have a 2-party system. dems or repubs its 2 sides of the same coin. these crooks move in and out of our major corporations and government effortlessly since it’s all one big entity under the covers. make no mistake none of these ‘leaders’ are our friends they’re in to the benefit of themselves and their allies.

  47. Mannwich says:

    @rc: Maybe not “human nature” per se but I think you get my larger point. This may sound simplistic but one great lesson that stayed with me from childhood was on the school playground when the kids would divvy up their own teams and there was always one team that would not only stack themselves with the best players, but would also cheat and change the rules along the way to ensure that they’d “win”. It was an “aha moment” for me at the age of 8-9 that stayed with me to this day.

  48. emmanuel117 says:

    @BnT

    Reminscences of a Stock Operator is the best. Highly recommended.

  49. Rikky says:

    HCF @ 11:03am you’ve nailed it. human nature has its limitations.

  50. leftback says:

    3.23% on the 10-yr and 3.99% on the 30-yr. The reflation train seems to be coming off the tracks.
    SPX 1040 being tested as we speak. Welcome to Red October™, my friends. Deleveraging, part deux?

  51. rootless_cosmopolitan says:

    manhattanguy,

    I hope you are aware, though, that this statement with which you agree is a quasi-religious belief. It’s not really possible to prove or disprove such a statement, as it is usually the case with statements regarding something allegedly being rooted in “human nature”. As far as I know there hasn’t been discovered any love-for-free-market-and-capitalism-gen in the human DNA, though.

    rc

  52. Marcus Aurelius says:

    Rikky:

    There are a few who are looking out for our long-term interests — Grayson, Paul, and Kucinich (the Senate used to have Lincoln Chafee, who was defeated by Sheldon Whitehouse, who isn’t too terribly bad, either), come to mind. It’s too bad they get labeled as being on the fringe.

  53. Mannwich says:

    @MA: But they ARE on the fringe in this group, as sad as that might seem!

  54. Thor says:

    Morning all – Wanted to share these words of wisdom I got from a very good source this Monday.

    “Most of the economic news this week is pretty much known. No negative market movers there until the reports on Friday. ISM should be strong and we know that employment can’t be worse since layoffs have dropped off sharply”

  55. CNBC Sucks says:

    Where is The Curmudgeon these days? The problem with that Rutgers report is that it goes into what is happening, but not the why and the so-what? The Curmudgeon is spot-on when he talks about “international wage arbitrage”; your real wages earned must be commensurate with your real value added. The US worker is not 15 – 20X more productive than a worker in China or India such that he will continue to generate 15 – 20X the wage. The idea in enlightened circles was that you can continue to move up the value ladder with high-end services or products from franklin411′s nanotechnology lab, but that apparently is not an idea you can really bank on, especially since everybody else is moving quickly to get up the same ladder.

    The decline of the US economically is a foregone conclusion, especially since the priorities of its citizenry are emo or indie, fantasy football, and FWB sex.

    All y’all can keep debating green shoots and what-not, but what really worries The Great CNBC Sucks is how will the most powerful and violently oriented nation on Earth respond to its ongoing and long-term economic decline. Our nation celebrates ignorance, backwardness, arrogance, licentiousness (clearly, I frown on licentiousness the least), and will to power as if they were badges of honor, in ways that Ronald Reagan himself could never imagine. Attitude and a sense of entitlement prevail over learning, thinking, and hard work. These days, we celebrate violence and militarism in a manner unthinkable when I was a child.

    I am not worried about investments. I am worried about whether this country will continue to be liveable over my remaining years, especially when I am old and less able to defend myself physically. I never thought I would see the day when Americans would pine openly for a military coup in their own country. All we have done in this recovery is anesthetize ourselves and postpone a true reckoning with our challenges as a tribe through even more money printing and debt. It took Europe the devastation, murder, suffering, and rape of constant war, hyperinflation, deflation, despotism, and open genocide to figure out that we all somehow have to live with each other, and it’s not all about me, and my taxes, and my property, and my right to carry a gun.

    The Great CNBC Sucks
    America’s Favorite Registered Republican

  56. rootless_cosmopolitan says:

    Mannwich,

    Kids at the age of 8 or 9 have been pretty much formed by the attitudes, belief systems, and rules that govern society, already, I would say.

    rc

  57. leftback says:

    The indices are leading, Harry.

  58. Mannwich says:

    @CNBC Sucks: Well said, my friend. I believe Curmudgeon’s son is ill, so he has bigger and more important issues to deal with.

  59. Mannwich says:

    @rc: You’re probably right, but I certainly wasn’t in that “in” group that tried to game the system on the playground. Is it any wonder that I’m now a Corporate American drop out? I think not.

  60. emmanuel117 says:

    We’re at Harry’s 4% dipbuyer level. Will we see goalposts being moved (again)?

  61. Thor says:

    No no no, we will not see more that a 2-4% drop in the indices before we continue this easy money making climb on our way into a mini economic boom.

    OK, I’m done. Sorry all, couldn’t resist – :-)

  62. rootless_cosmopolitan says:

    Mannwich,

    I hear you. Of course, there is always a whole spectrum of attitudes, behaviors, and social characters, even if a certain subset of them is favored in society. I am not cut out for the corporate world, either. Luckily, I found a niche in an academic ivory tower (with enough toilet tissue supplies to slurp).

    rc

  63. SINGER says:

    WWWD – What Would Wanger Do?

  64. thfiv says:

    What about the minimum wage increase, added taxes, added regulation, government mandates, union advocates in the White House and congress?

    These factors are not in the equation.

    Furthermore, the arithmetic does not account for the 150,000 per month job creation necessary for new workers just to maintain zero.

  65. Onlooker from Troy says:

    The strong bid at the long end of bonds is very interesting. Speaks volumes to those listening. And the tepid to bad economic data is not supporting the V thesis well either, now is it?

  66. HarryWanger says:

    That’s a sobering report for sure.

  67. you know, we keep talking about Grayson, Paul, Kucinich, Chafee, et al., We should catch a Clue.

    those dudes, and/or dudettes, are Federal Representatives. Most of us don’t even know who’s on our, respective, School Boards, is our County Commissioner, etc., let alone our State Rep., or Sen..

    there’s a reason this dude has grossed more Rev. than the Beatles and Elvis, combined, this:
    Ooh ooh ooh aah
    Gotta make a change
    For once in my life
    It’s gonna feel real good
    Gonna make a difference
    Gonna make it right

    As I turned up the collar on
    A favorite winter coat
    This wind is blowin’ my mind
    I see the kids in the street
    With not enough to eat
    Who am I to be blind
    Pretending not to see their needs

    A summer’s disregard
    A broken bottle top
    And a one man’s soul
    They follow each other
    On the wind ya’ know
    ‘Cause they got nowhere to go
    That’s why I want you to know

    I’m starting with the man in the mirror
    I’m asking him to change his ways
    And no message could have been any clearer
    If you wanna make the world a better place
    Take a look at yourself and then make a change, yey
    Na na na, na na na, na na na na oh ho

    I’ve been a victim of
    A selfish kinda love
    It’s time that I realize
    There are some with no home
    Not a nickel to loan
    Could it be really pretending that they’re not alone

    A willow deeply scarred
    Somebody’s broken heart
    And a washed out dream
    (Washed out dream)
    They follow the pattern of the wind ya’ see
    ‘Cause they got no place to be
    That’s why I’m starting with me

    I’m starting with the man in the mirror
    I’m asking him to change his ways
    And no message could have been any clearer
    If you wanna make the world a better place
    Take a look at yourself and then make a change

    I’m starting with the man in the mirror
    I’m asking him to change his ways
    And no message could have been any clearer
    If you wanna make the world a better place
    Take a look at yourself and then make that change

    I’m starting with the man in the mirror
    (Man in the mirror, oh yeah)
    I’m asking him to change his ways, yeah
    (Change)
    No message could have been any clearer
    If you wanna make the world a better place
    Take a look at yourself and then make the change
    You gotta get it right, while you got the time
    ‘Cause when you close your heart
    (You can’t close your, your mind)
    Then you close your mind

    (That man, that man, that man)
    (That man, that man, that man)
    (With the man in the mirror, oh yeah)
    (That man you know, that man you know)
    (That man you know, that man you know)
    I’m asking him to change his ways
    (Change)
    No message could have been any clearer
    If you wanna make the world a better place
    Take a look at yourself then make that change

    (Na na na, na na na, na na na na)
    Ooh
    Oh yeah
    Yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah
    (Na na na, na na na, na na na na)

    Oh no
    Oh no, I’m gonna make a change
    It’s gonna feel real good
    Sure mon
    (Change)
    Just lift yourself
    You know, you got to stop it yourself
    (Yeah)
    Oh
    Make that change
    (I gotta make that change today, oh)
    (Man in the mirror)
    You got to, you got to not let yourself, brother oh
    Yeah
    You know that
    (Make that change)
    (I gotta make that make me then make)
    You got, you got to move
    Sure mon, sure mon
    You got to
    (Stand up, stand up, stand up)
    Make that change
    Stand up and lift yourself, now
    (Man in the mirror)
    Make that change
    (Gonna make that change, sure mon)
    (Man in the mirror)
    You know it, you know it, you know it, you know
    (Change)
    Make that change

    http://www.elyrics.net/read/m/michael-jackson-lyrics/man-in-the-mirror-lyrics.html
    © AEROSTATION CORPORATION; MCA MUSIC PUBLISHING; YELLOWBRICK ROAD MUSIC;

    may be one of them..

  68. AmenRa says:

    It didn’t happen in September but we are inching closer to the weekly TLB reversal price.

    I guess the Fed had to go overseas and have Trichett talk to game the dollar. No one hear was listening to the Fed or Treasury. I hear the Treasury is going to increase coupon issuance. The 5, 10, and 30 yr are being bought like crazy. The dollar is up around 50 bps. It took most of the morning to get Gold back under $1000. I think the hinges are loose.

  69. leftback says:

    “The strong bid at the long end of bonds is very interesting. Speaks volumes to those listening”

    It’s saying DEFLATION, baby.

  70. HarryWanger says:

    9500 Dow is decision time for me. That would be a 3.3% drop from the closing high a few days back. Question I ask myself, is it an opportunity to add within the 2-4% pull back range or close out? I’ll watch volume there and velocity if it goes to 9500 (which I think it will). Might be time to pull the plug. Watching and waiting.

  71. rootless_cosmopolitan says:

    HarryWanger,

    I think you should add. Really go in now with all you have. There will be an economic boom ahead. You don’t want to miss out on that. Later you can laugh at all the non-believing chicken who did miss out.

    rc

  72. call me ahab says:

    wow-

    sober analysis from Wanger

    CNBCs-

    dude- you’re a rebel- also-

    FF- do you play (-:

  73. manhattanguy says:

    @HW: Does this mean you are agreeing with me market ran not because of true economy recovery but because of false hopes?

  74. HarryWanger says:

    manhattanguy: Not convinced either way after a couple of days of data points to consider. Market has been running on it’s own psychology, that’s for sure. Positive/improving economic numbers helped “justify” the move. But I’m looking very closely at the numbers coming through this week. Don’t know if the psychology can change on those numbers. But, I’m watching the volume and velocity. That will definitely signal a potential psychological change. FWIW: The chart on DJIA for the last two days of August and 9/1 are very similar. That didn’t break the market and in fact gave us a strong September. But let’s see what happens with volume here.

  75. Greg0658 says:

    playing catch up – got to 10am .. As a small business owner myself ..
    austincompany Says – “if the Obama administration was actively doing things to help us hire more employees … health care mandates, cap and trade rules, etc, we are not expanding” and then “current Democratic congress is not friendly to business … lower the corporate income tax rate”

    I believe the Obama Admin is attempting to help by lowering health care requirements and displace that to other more wealthier aspects of the American economy

    cap and trade .. can we do anything for the planet anymore .. and our own health that doesn’t have to pass the capitalism 1st test

    and “friendly to business” how about friendly to the small players (workers) I know the GOP sees the world view as America is the businesses .. I still like to think America is the people

    and before I hear Clinton did it right .. come on Obama .. ya right the Clinton golden years were selling the factory base to offshore facilities for home state Wal*Mart .. NOW WHAT

    how about taxes organized around the small players (people) I’ve heard are 70% of the economy

    and the Dems and the GOP – watching the Bernanke testimony – a Rep said we are getting mad at bailouts .. correction for that Rep .. we are getting mad at fighting the So@ ism and the Fa@ ism we little people do everyday so that the capitalism system can do business as usual over this 6000 year systems history

  76. manhattanguy says:

    Ahh so you are not as optimistic as you were before today. Today’s data is the reason why I wasn’t confident in the “V” shaped recovery thesis. All the data we have seen in the past few months were just noise to me. A crisis like this will take a long time to resolve.

  77. call me ahab says:

    greg says-

    “I know the GOP sees the world view as America is the businesses .. I still like to think America is the people”

    agree with you there my friend

  78. manhattanguy says:

    Delinquency rates hit record highs on home-equity loans, home-equity lines of credit and bank cards for the quarter that ended July 31, the latest numbers available.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-loan-delinquencies-hit-record-high-2009-10-01

    Short $COF

  79. Concerned American says:

    paulyarbles Says @ October 1st, 2009 at 9:28 am

    and

    willid3 Says @ October 1st, 2009 at 9:42 am

    They said all that can be and needs to be said.

  80. Winston Munn says:

    If you pin a chart of it on the wall, stand back far enough, drink enough bathtub gin, and squint just so, the recovery of the 1930s looks kind of V-shaped. However, I am inclined to believe that because the underlying problems have been ignored, the recovery from The Great Recession will not look much like Churchill’s victory sign but more like an Invisible Hand extending its middle finger.

  81. Greg0658 says:

    “explain our bailouts of corporate dinosaurs” risk to small people and the military industrial complex … halt the system from doing a *pokkercall* and be the Highlander

    2nd time I posted this good link: Corporatists vs. Capitalists
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/cenk-uygur/corporatists-vs-capitalis_b_288718.html

    HCF “precisely why I believe in limited, smaller government” still tho if reading your mind govs gotta do guns 1st – butter 2nd – right? so that means wild west on homefront streets – right?

    “gaming the system is the new economy” ya got it* … balancing world wage scales and standard of livings

    * coda – or what always has worked for capitalism – war – how about this time around multiple civil wars and WW3 all at the same time with no real banking system to control costs? Highlander

  82. HCF says:

    @Greg0658:

    Great link! Love the word “corporatist” too!

    HCF

  83. Thor says:

    Manhattanguy – RE: your consumer debt delinquencies. I’ve been wondering if or when we could reach a tipping point with this. When more and more people decide to just walk away from all their debt – home, home equity, credit cards, etc.

  84. Rikky says:

    speaking of short, i piled into TZA a few days ago. working out so far but i might bail today.

  85. Ny Stock Guy says:

    “we are a country of morons, who value stupidity and ignorance”.

    Mannwich, it could not have been said any better.

    It’s really quite sad.

  86. Bruce in Tn says:

    Harry:

    Why the change in attitude? In my line of business people and getting to see lots of different people daily are what make each day fun. Sometimes I wonder why people do what they do. As for you, I thought you had staked out the “very irritating irrational bull in a room full of realists” persona, and today you seem to be much more sober in your evaluation of the economy? What gives? Aren’t you going to just irritate the old hands here anyway?

    …did your dog run off? Really….?

  87. Bruce in Tn says:

    GM sales off 45% y/y…

  88. Mannwich says:

    @Bruce: But was it “better than expected?”

  89. Greg0658 says:

    “… this time around multiple civil wars and WW3 …”
    I’m seriously worried about that .. it would be an answer wouldn’t it ?
    overpopulation .. meddling by the serfs .. cash system wacked out .. rebuilding anew for the 21st century*

    so what to worry about .. deployed/drained national guards .. possession is 9/10ths of the law .. gated/castle compounds

    “Capitalism is the best path to prosperity”
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goldilocks

  90. Bruce in Tn says:

    Manny:

    Here in east Tennessee, things are probably bottoming, but no upturn in sight. My nurse’s husband, who was laid off from his HVAC employer 6 months ago, went into business for himself, and has been fairly busy until the last couple of weeks. He now is scrambling very hard just to make expenses, and he was already operating on a shoestring.

    Lots of people looking for work here, and very few job openings…

  91. Mannwich says:

    I hear you Bruce. I’ve been trying to get a business going myself with a couple of partners. We’re getting there but need more funding and we’re waiting from Wells Fargo to decide if they’re going to lend us the money. Don’t think they’re going to approve us even though I carry no credit card debt, have only a mortgage payment and am never late on paying anything. FICO score close to 800. Both of my partners have good credit too. What will that tell me if/when Wells denies us?

    Two things:

    (1) Wells is not nearly as “healthy” as they or the feds say the are…plain and simple, they are LYING about their financial health..
    (2) I will be pulling all of our money from Wells when its feasible and will never do business with them again.

  92. Christopher says:

    Is it just me or has the forum lost some valued commenters since BR told us he blew off the DC trip?

    I’m working on starting a biz here too Manny….what are we nuts??
    Mine is all virtual though…no way I’m jumping into any CRE in way/shape/form anytime soon.

  93. Mannwich says:

    @Christopher: Our is “virtual” too but I’m worried that it could turn into a “virtual” business with “virtual” profits (meaning I don’t actual see any).

  94. Christopher says:

    Ahhh….that’s called a “hobby”.

    :)

  95. Mannwich says:

    @Christopher: Bingo. An expensive one…….so far.

  96. [...] noted yesterday, we are unlikely to return to full pre-recession employment until [...]