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Putting the 60% Rally Into Perspective

Posted By Guest Author On October 22, 2009 @ 2:15 pm In Think Tank | Comments Disabled

Stock markets are up 60% plus. How does this rally stack up with previous ones?

Here are some key criteria of what previous 60% rallies have looked like when analyzed across 10 different key economic dimensions :

  • Year over Year Retail Sales: 9.3% average in prior 60% rallies versus -5.3% in the current one
  • Consumer Confidence: 95.5 average; 53.1 now
  • Capacity Utilization: 79.9% average; 66.6% now
  • Year over Year Industrial Production: 4.1% avereage; -10.7% now
  • ISM: 53.9 average; 52.6 now
  • Payroll employment gains over period: 2.2% average; -2.0% now
  • Decline in continued unemployment claims from cycle peak: -26.3 average; -11.6% now
  • Year over Year growth in total credit market debt: 9.3% average; 3.0% now
  • Year over Year growth in household debt: 8.8% average; -0.1% now
  • P/E Multiple: 16.8x average; 20.0x now

Data courtesy of Contrary Investor [1] via Zero Hedge [2]

Article printed from The Big Picture: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog

URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/putting-the-60-rally-into-perspective/

URLs in this post:

[1] Contrary Investor: http://www.contraryinvestor.com/

[2] Zero Hedge : http://www.zerohedge.com/article/60-rally-perspective

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