Readings
By Barry Ritholtz - October 14th, 2009, 4:22PM
Some afternoon reads:
• Martin Wolf: The rumours of the dollar’s death are much exaggerated (FT)
• History Shows Dow Gets Tired at 10,000, Other Round Numbers (CNBC)
• Why Investors Hate Making Money (heh heh)
• Geithner Aides Reaped Millions Working for Banks, Hedge Funds (Bloomberg)
• Medal of Honor: Banking Analyst Chris Whalen is the Best at Breaking Down Banks (Wall St Cheat Sheet)
• Don’t trust Dow 10,000 (CNN/Money)
• The radiant beauty of cosmic collisions (Discover)
What are you reading ?
October 14th, 2009 at 4:47 pm
Hope Mr. Wolf is right. I am sitting on cash mostly.
October 14th, 2009 at 4:52 pm
Dow 36,000: The New Strategy for Profiting From the Coming Rise in the Stock Market (Paperback)
http://www.amazon.com/Dow-36-000-Strategy-Profiting/dp/0609806998
October 14th, 2009 at 5:04 pm
For people who watch “The Office” and have ever worked in a corporate hierarchy, this is an awesome article:
http://www.ribbonfarm.com/2009/10/07/the-gervais-principle-or-the-office-according-to-the-office/
A little slow at first, but an excellent read once it gets going…
October 14th, 2009 at 5:04 pm
High Court To Hear Ex-Enron CEO’s Criminal Appeal (NPR)
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=113748910&ft=1&f=1001
October 14th, 2009 at 5:06 pm
Dyson launches the bladeless electric fan
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5ba62a00-b755-11de-9812-00144feab49a.html
http://www.dyson.com/technology/airmultiplier.asp
October 14th, 2009 at 5:13 pm
This Liz Claman interview is great.
http://wallstcheatsheet.com/knowledge/interview-knowledge/exclusive-interview-liz-claman-from-fox-business-shares-stories-from-the-crash-and-her-entrepreneurial-spirit/?p=2417/
October 14th, 2009 at 5:15 pm
With respect to the “most hated rally in Wall Street history” as Barry Ritholtz claims, to which the WSJ article refers:
http://www.investorsintelligence.com/x/free_chart.html?r=101#
I still wonder on what metric Barry founded his statement. Or does his claim just result from distorted perception?
I prefer explanations based on measured data over pure perception, which is purely subjective, to try to understand reality.
rc
October 14th, 2009 at 5:32 pm
I can not believe you provided a link to Martin Wolf’s piece. It is an insult to me and anyone with and IQ over 50.
October 14th, 2009 at 5:47 pm
What’s wrong with Martin Wolf?
October 14th, 2009 at 6:09 pm
“Dyson launches the bladeless electric fan” .. I looked at both sites and don’t get it .. what moves the air? Does the Mr Bubble loop spin like a yoyo and has turbo fins? Does the loop use electrical +- charges like a electrostatic air filter? Ultrasonic amplification? A fan blade in the stand section?
October 14th, 2009 at 6:09 pm
Pat is a rabid goldbug. DGDF, Thor. Do not argue, it is just so.
LB cannot post at Andys for some abstruse technical reason. Please send my best over there.
October 14th, 2009 at 7:02 pm
Here is the top 10 list of most glaring examples of Mr Obama falling short in key areas he trumpeted during his campaign.
1.PROMISE BROKEN. Mr Obama said he would “not sign any non-emergency bill without giving the American public an opportunity to review and comment on the White House website for five days”. But the “sunlight before signing” promise has already fallen by the wayside with Mr Obama signing three major bills without public scrutiny.
2.PROMISE BROKEN. Mr Obama repeatedly said he would negotiate health care reform in televised sessions broadcast on C-SPAN, the public service network. Instead, he his approach has been no different from his predecessors, holding talks behind closed doors at the White House and Congress.
3.PROMISE BROKEN. Mr Obama solemnly pledged that “no political appointees in an Obama-Biden administration will be permitted to work on regulations or contracts directly and substantially related to their prior employer for two years”. In practice, Mr Obama has granted several waivers to this rule, allowing lobbyists to serve in the top reaches of his administration…
http://obamboozled.blogspot.com/2009/10/barack-obamas-top-10-unfulfilled.html#
http://clusty.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&query=The+Obama+Deception
some things are, too, predictable..
October 14th, 2009 at 7:02 pm
Well after reading the post about compensation I kept getting the image of BR trying to
do the right thing like the boy sticking his fingers in the dam to stop the leak. Well intentioned
but to no avail.
Time for some R & R.
Not that kind more ranting and raving, so lets hit the G spot:
http://thegspot.typepad.com/blog/2009/07/crazyass-wingnut-of-the-day-peter-ferrara.html
“Let’s start with the awesome title — “Sarah Palin Outsmarts the Left.”
Well, that hurt. My leftist comrades and I, foiled again by that noted brainiac, Sarah Palin! She is truly the master of 16-dimension political chess, that one!”
Talk about compensation, if SP ever wins Tina Fey will be able to cash in big time and maybe outdo GS.
October 14th, 2009 at 7:10 pm
BR…took your book to NC beach this weekend. It’s a great read…and about the “Heh, Heh……..
It’s good to see your posts go Nuclear all over the Netroots! Good luck with that car…..and glad to see you keeping your perspective with the Car and Boat…it’s all good. We need voices like yours.
BTW, ordered the book on Amazon.
This is an example of how “BIG VOICES on INTERNET” working for “TRUTH” can make a difference in our dialog by giving a “HOOK” for writers to pick up on. Good on you Barry!
Active Trader by Elizabeth O’Brien (Author Archive)
Why Investors Hate Making Money
http://www.smartmoney.com/Investing/Stocks/Why-Investors-Hate-Making-Money/
From the site:
. Ritholtz advises investors to stay disciplined with dollar-cost averaging and stop-loss orders on stocks. It helps, he notes, “to stop obsessively following every twitch of economic data.” Ritholtz’s firm ditched its office televisions a few years ago, a purge he credits with sharpening his insights.
http://www.smartmoney.com/Investing/Stocks/Why-Investors-Hate-Making-Money/
October 14th, 2009 at 7:16 pm
BR…took your book to NC beach this weekend. (It was Warm and Good Reading Beach Weather) It’s a great read (insight) even if one thinks they know everything about the “Melt Down” …and about the “Heh, Heh”……..
It’s good to see your posts go Nuclear all over the Netroots! Good luck with that car…..and glad to see you keeping your perspective with the Car and Boat…it’s all good. We need voices like yours.
BTW, ordered the book on Amazon.
This is an example of how “BIG VOICES on INTERNET” working for “TRUTH” can make a difference in our dialog by giving a “HOOK” for writers to pick up on. Good on you Barry!
Active Trader by Elizabeth O’Brien (Author Archive)
Why Investors Hate Making Money
http://www.smartmoney.com/Investing/Stocks/Why-Investors-Hate-Making-Money/
From the site:
. Ritholtz advises investors to stay disciplined with dollar-cost averaging and stop-loss orders on stocks. It helps, he notes, “to stop obsessively following every twitch of economic data.” Ritholtz’s firm ditched its office televisions a few years ago, a purge he credits with sharpening his insights.
http://www.smartmoney.com/Investing/Stocks/Why-Investors-Hate-Making-Money/
October 14th, 2009 at 7:17 pm
The fan is in the stand…..
October 14th, 2009 at 7:19 pm
@ leftback
I’d hardly consider myself a goldbug. I own other commodities and commodity based currencies. I’d consider myself anti-USD if anything.
@Thor
Wolf’s first line: “These panic-mongers are varied: gold bugs, fiscal hawks…” I’m not a panic-monger as much as I am a realist. The USD was in freefall before the debacle got started last September. The reason it strengthened was because investors perceived it as a “safe haven” and fled to it as they liquidated most of their holdings. Perceiving any fiat currency as a safe haven is a joke. As risk appetite began to pick up again, investors used their dollars to buy equities and in essence showed how they really feel about the USD. Just another port in the storm. And now the USD has resumed its freefall. I don’t see where being a fiscal hawk or trying to be prudently responsible is being a panic-monger either. To me, we need more people with that kind of sensibility not less. Recently because of spending more than they were earning, many people have been forced to begin to live that lifestyle. And so it will be with governments or they risk taking us all with them. I guess I don’t like being lumped into any group of people and being called names because of the way I think, consequently invest. The USD has been on its “death bed” for 35 years now and eventually, if things don’t change, it will die. My bet is, that the USG’s spending continues while expecting foreign countries to continue to lend us money and intervene on the USD’s behalf to prop it up in the open markets under the delusion that the USD is somehow indestructable because it is the world’s reserve currency. I hope I am wrong.
October 14th, 2009 at 7:41 pm
@Mark Hoffer – Last night you burst my bubble about being able to divide by zero and now your 7:02pm post – but what am I going to do with my Barak Obama bed sheets, my Barak Obama plate and cup my Barak Obama fork and spoon, my Barak Obama night light and my Barak Obama slippers?
You are a mean mean man Mark Hoffer……….
October 14th, 2009 at 7:43 pm
“Drug companies have sold $1.5 billion worth of swine flu shots, in addition to the $1 billion for seasonal flu they booked earlier this year. These inoculations are part of a much wider and rapidly growing $20 billion global vaccine market.
“The vaccine market is booming,” says Bruce Carlson, spokesperson at market research firm Kalorama, which publishes an annual survey of the vaccine industry. “It’s an enormous growth area for pharmaceuticals at a time when other areas are not doing so well,” he says…”
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/big-business-swine-flu/story?id=8820642
~~
“Whether this season’s swine flu turns out to be deadly or mild, most experts agree that it’s only a matter of time before we’re hit by a truly devastating flu pandemic—one that might kill more people worldwide than have died of the plague and aids combined. In the U.S., the main lines of defense are pharmaceutical—vaccines and antiviral drugs to limit the spread of flu and prevent people from dying from it. Yet now some flu experts are challenging the medical orthodoxy and arguing that for those most in need of protection, flu shots and antiviral drugs may provide little to none. So where does that leave us if a bad pandemic strikes?…”
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200911/brownlee-h1n1#
~~
(NaturalNews) Prepare to have your world rocked. What you’re about to read here will leave you astonished, inspired and outraged all at the same time. You’re about to be treated to some little-known information demonstrating why seasonal flu vaccines are utterly worthless and why their continued promotion is based entirely on fabricated studies and medical mythology.
If the whole world knew what you’re about to read here, the vaccine industry would collapse overnight.
This information comes to you courtesy of a brilliant article published in The Atlantic (November 2009). The article, written by Shannon Brownlee and Jeanne Lenzer, isn’t just brilliant; in my opinion it stands as the best article on flu vaccines that has ever been published in the popular press. Entitled Does the vaccine matter?, it presents some of the most eye-opening information you’ve probably ever read about the failure of flu vaccines….
http://www.naturalnews.com/027239_vaccines_flu_vaccine_.html
~~
There’s something Ironic about the fact that the first story, above, was brought to us by DIS…
October 14th, 2009 at 7:43 pm
Those “Gold Bugs.”
Two years ago on a vacation in Boca Raton, FL…ads in newspapers were advertising “Gold Parties.” The Chick ..”New Thing” for women was to go to these parties and have a glass of wine a nice appetizer and chat over getting rid of the “Ex-Hubbie and Grannie’s Old Stuff.”
It was billed as a “Hoot” (Southern Expression for …well a HOOT) and that you’d have a good time and get rid of all that gold crap that was “legacy or bad memories.” I think GOLD was selling in the high 800’s at that point. I wondered what the HELL was GOING ON!
I got back to my native state, North Carolina…and it wasn’t too long before I saw the newspaper ads enticing the lovely Southern Belle’s in my adopted state getting bombarded with ads for “GOLD PARTY…SELL US your Mother/Ex’s and GRANNIES OLD GOLD!”
I rushed to see if there was anything in our house that we could show up at the door with that would give us the 800.00 trade in for those “bad memories” of past lovers, boyfriends, grannie and relatives who hoarded this stuff thinking it wouls give them “good thoughts” in our memories, after they moved on.
I didn’t come up with anything…and never attended. I’m glad, now, that I didn’t because I would have given up all my stuff to some “pawn shop type” who hoodwinked me into selling before I could have cashed in my profits from the recent run up to OVER A THOUSAND!
Point is…. WHY were there folks “ahead of the game on gold” setting up these “shops” all over America luring in unsuspecting females to DITCH THEIR GOLD?
I feel the worst for our Grannies who thought “Gold is a Girl’s Best Friend”…unlike Marilyn who thought “DeBeer’s Diamonds were the Best Friend.”
It’s hard to know what the difference is…..but I’m suspecting that there were folks two years ago from “some other countries” trying to get Women across America to give up their “bad memories” who are raking in the profits these days now that Gold is ON the UPWARDS.
What to make of that? I don’t know. I guess those folks did a “Short” and are happy at $800. Maybe they knew best, after all?
October 14th, 2009 at 7:47 pm
Mr. Ritholtz you are very quotable.
October 14th, 2009 at 7:53 pm
Pat G,
“The USD has been on its “death bed” for 35 years now and eventually, if things don’t change, it will die.”
Sounds very dramatic. What is this supposed to mean, specifically? Do you think the dollar may go to Zero relative to other currencies? Why would this happen? Because of increasing government debt? Well, as far as I know the Yen isn’t dead, although Japan’s government debt is almost at 200% of Japan’s GDP, w/o the Yen being the world’s first reserve currency.
rc
October 14th, 2009 at 7:58 pm
then, you know, just for fun..
we can wonder about: “…MF59, the favored squalene-based adjuvant employed in both swine herd and human vaccines, could possibly trigger mutations that make flu viruses treatment resistant. Researchers indicate MF59 does indeed induce greater immune response due to its ability to generate cytokines! [Proceedings National Academy Sciences U S A. 2008 Jul 29; 105(30):10501–6]
It has been repeatedly shown that nutritional deficiencies, particularly of vitamin E and the trace mineral selenium, exacerbate the immune response to replicating flu viruses and that this then leads to alterations in the gene makeup of the viral genome, resulting in a mortal outcome. [Trends Microbiology 2004 Sep;12(9):417–23] Nutritional deficiency not only affects the host response to the virus but also the viral genome itself. [Proceedings Nutrition Society 1999 Aug;58(3):707–11] To limit mortality, public health officials should be fortifying foods with selenium and vitamin E to head off the possibility of gene mutations among flu sufferers. [J Trace Element Med Biol. 2007;21(1):52–62]
It’s obvious that public health officials are more intent upon preparing a vaccine to address an impending flu outbreak late this fall in North America than asking where this H1N1 swine-origin triple-assortment influenza virus came from and how it developed.
The low mortality rate associated with this flu outbreak does not deserve the attention the news media has given it or the widespread preparations that public health authorities have made.
The $9 billion the U.S. allotted to fight a flu that has crossed continents, that did not spark a deadly flu outbreak in South America during their flu season, and which so far has resulted in fewer deaths than recent past seasonal flu outbreaks in North America, speaks for intentional misdirection or even possible conspiracy involving vaccine makers and politicians to create a flu pandemic. ..”
http://www.lewrockwell.com/sardi/sardi122.html#
Bill Sardi [send him mail] is a frequent writer on health and political topics. His health writings can be found at http://www.naturalhealthlibrarian.com. He is the author of You Don’t Have To Be Afraid Of Cancer Anymore.
Copyright © 2009 Bill Sardi Word of Knowledge Agency, San Dimas, California. This article has been written exclusively for ww w.LewRockwell.com and other parties who wish to refer to it should link rather than post at other URLs.
~~
“…Desiree was a healthy 25-year-old up until two months ago, working at AOL and as a Redskins cheerleading ambassador.
But her world has now been turned upside down.
Desiree has trouble talking and speaks in a staccato rhythm.
She says, “It’s a battle every day because when I wake up I think it’s going to be normal, but then I’m quickly reminded that’s not going to be the case.”
She says 10 days after getting a seasonal flu shot at a Reston grocery store in August, and on her second wedding anniversary, she got sick. First, she came down with flu like symptoms, then convulsions and blacking out.
She’s seen more than 60 doctors. She says all of them were stumped until Johns Hopkins diagnosed her with dystonia. She believes her seasonal flu shot triggered it…”
http://www.wusa9.com/news/local/story.aspx?storyid=92345&catid=158#
~~
sure, sounds like real fun for Desiree..good thing “The Centers for Disease Control cannot comment on her case.”, as if..
October 14th, 2009 at 8:26 pm
Mark E Hoffer Says:
then, you know, just for fun..
we can wonder about: “…MF59, the favored squalene-based adjuvant employed in both swine herd and human vaccines, could possibly trigger mutations that make flu viruses treatment resistant. Researchers indicate MF59 does indeed induce greater immune response due to its ability to generate cytokines! [Proceedings National Academy Sciences U S A. 2008 Jul 29; 105(30):10501–6]
It has been repeatedly shown that nutritional deficiencies, particularly of vitamin E and the trace mineral selenium, exacerbate the immune response to replicating flu viruses and that this then leads to alterations in the gene makeup of the viral genome, resulting in a mortal outcome. [Trends Microbiology 2004 Sep;12(9):417–23] Nutritional deficiency not only affects the host response to the virus but also the viral genome itself. [Proceedings Nutrition Society 1999 Aug;58(3):707–11] To limit mortality, public health officials should be fortifying foods with selenium and vitamin E to head off the possibility of gene mutations among flu sufferers. [J Trace Element Med Biol. 2007;21(1):52–62]
It’s obvious that public health officials are more intent upon preparing a vaccine to address an impending flu outbreak late this fall in North America than asking where this H1N1 swine-origin triple-assortment influenza virus came from and how it developed.
The low mortality rate associated with this flu outbreak does not deserve the attention the news media has given it or the widespread preparations that public health authorities have made.
The $9 billion the U.S. allotted to fight a flu that has crossed continents, that did not spark a deadly flu outbreak in South America during their flu season, and which so far has resulted in fewer deaths than recent past seasonal flu outbreaks in North America, speaks for intentional misdirection or even possible conspiracy involving vaccine makers and politicians to create a flu pandemic. ..”
http://www.lewrockwell.com/sardi/sardi122.html#
Bill Sardi [send him mail] is a frequent writer on health and political topics. His health writings can be found at http://www.naturalhealthlibrarian.com. He is the author of You Don’t Have To Be Afraid Of Cancer Anymore.
Copyright © 2009 Bill Sardi Word of Knowledge Agency, San Dimas, California. This article has been written exclusively for ww w.LewRockwell.com and other parties who wish to refer to it should link rather than post at other URLs.
~~
“…Desiree was a healthy 25-year-old up until two months ago, working at AOL and as a Redskins cheerleading ambassador.
But her world has now been turned upside down.
Desiree has trouble talking and speaks in a staccato rhythm.
She says, “It’s a battle every day because when I wake up I think it’s going to be normal, but then I’m quickly reminded that’s not going to be the case.”
She says 10 days after getting a seasonal flu shot at a Reston grocery store in August, and on her second wedding anniversary, she got sick. First, she came down with flu like symptoms, then convulsions and blacking out.
————-
Mark….thanks for your posts on this. Some will use caution and others will panic like thinking they will DIE (Mushroom Clouds of Terror) …but in the end…as a person who has worked in Big Pharma and has experience with this stuff…I’d suggest that “CAUTION is the BETTER PART OF VALOR.”
It’s good you put out the “Caveats.”
And, thank you. There are so few who still put themselves “on the line” you deserve a BADGE OF HONOR!
October 14th, 2009 at 8:28 pm
Mark E Hoffer:
Mark….thanks for your posts on this. Some will use caution and others will panic like thinking they will DIE (Mushroom Clouds of Terror) …but in the end…as a person who has worked in Big Pharma and has experience with this stuff…I’d suggest that “CAUTION is the BETTER PART OF VALOR.”
It’s good you put out the “Caveats.”
And, thank you. There are so few who still put themselves “on the line” you deserve a BADGE OF HONOR!
October 14th, 2009 at 8:38 pm
so . . .
question- how long will the stock bubble last- we had the “Bush Boom” per Jerry Bowyer- all the market “dim bulbs” we very excited that the market was going up after a big move down-
so- how long can we expect this one to last? the “Bush Boom”(LOL) lasted from summer July 2002 to Oct 2007-
5 years- and an almost doubling the S&P- and then- well . . .we know that story-
now- we had a big move down to 666 and now we are not too far away from doubling – after only 7 months!!!!
so I guess my question is- are we in for bigger moves and bigger crashes in shorter time frames- let’s say 9 months to 1200- and then the big move down in a very short period?
because- everyone here knows- unless you are as dumb as a brick- that nothing has been done to correct anything- the same old debt fueled market ride- except this time it is the USG-
please comment- i am quite curious as to what everyone’s thoughts are
October 14th, 2009 at 8:49 pm
CRASH the second, baby…. but when?
Mondays after Op Ex? It could start on the Friday of course, but get rid of the puts and then it can crash.
October 19. November 24. December 22. January 19? Think I calculated correctly. Pick one.
October will be too soon. December is out – that is for SANTA CLAUS RALLY.
November anyone? There is time for some bad economic news in there and to digest weak retail earnings.
Or it could be January 2010. After we see the LOUSY christmas sales numbers and then the BLS takes out all the bogus B/D job adjustments? Who knows?
October 14th, 2009 at 8:49 pm
call me ahab Says:
}[question- how long will the stock bubble last- we had the “Bush Boom” per Jerry Bowyer- all the market “dim bulbs” we very excited that the market was going up after a big move down-”
Barry posted that this “run” could go on. He’s posted verifications from other sites that the US Economy is NOT the Stock Market.
Those Fund Managers of the “401-K’s” and the rest of the “Near to Retirement/Value Funds” have got to post some kind of good returns for 2009. And the Obama Administration and the Banks/Trading Vehicles they BAILED OUT are gonna use every TRICK in the BOOK to get that Old Market into UP-PHASE if they have to squeeze Geithner and Bernanke’s balls in a vice to get it.
So…until the end of the year it’s UP! UP! …barring a Black Swan Event…it’s UP!
But the minute the NewYear’s Eve Party Balloons, hats and Champaigne are done…….LOOK OUT BELOW!
Because all the “Year End Earnings” will be done…and it’s “HAPPY NEW YEAR!” Let’s ROLL THAT NEW CALENDAR!
Just saying…you asked for views…that’s mine. Probably screwed but…I’m grounded.
October 14th, 2009 at 9:30 pm
We are all screwed once the easy 2008 comps are over, and people see that we are stuck with The New Normal.
So that would be sometime in the late Spring, when we are comparing to Q2, the recovery quarter of 2008.
But it could easily be earlier than that – when people see that we are going to be stuck with $50-60, not $90 EPS. Of course, anything leading to a spike to $100 oil would also bring the curtain down on the Brave New World.
Don’t try to fight it, or understand it. Know it for what it is. A bear market rally, and that it will end.
October 14th, 2009 at 9:41 pm
@LB 6:09pm — It’s not you, it’s Andy’s Blogger/WordPress (scratch any of these bugs, and you find WordPress staring back at you).
Here’s how you (usually) successfully post:
1. Type in your content.
2. (most important step) Select everything, select “Copy”.
3. Enter “Preview.” It will most likely complain about how you are (or aren’t) logged in. Attempt to login to whatever service you think you’re authorized by. It may well still complain — try a few times until it works (it will, eventually — so much for “finite state machines”).
4. (here’s why step 2 is important) Step 3 will very likely erase all of your carefully formulated cleverness. Go into the input area and select “Paste” — HA! Despite Blogger’s best efforts, your post isn’t lost!
5. Repeat 3 through 4 until “Preview” takes — it may take a few shots.
Notes:
1. Can’t blame Andy — it’s those lazy, incompetent “programmers.”
2. Sincerest apologies (and sincerest thanks) to Barry for allowing this diatribe on how to post on SOMEBODY ELSE’S Blog.
(Maybe CNBCS doesn’t post there because he can’t either!)
October 14th, 2009 at 9:42 pm
TakBak04 .. fyi .. 4,096 bytes to ditto into the www forever (well till armageddon) playback machine
fyi .. you can (in IE7) right mouse click over the blue date/time stamp and copy shortcut and paste to reference it
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/readings/#comment-225878
and ahab “so- how long can we expect this one to last?” .. umm .. is *until a black swan appears and everyone wants cash now instead of numbers in accounts* anywhere near correct? and hopefully for the many – the black swan doesn’t include a wwweb crash
October 14th, 2009 at 9:48 pm
my opinion-
once the Fed makes moves to stop the unprecedented easing- that could be a market game changer-
it makes me laugh- the supposed free market “Dow 10,000″ crowd- all in w/ government sponsorship if it makes the market go up-
fucking phonies- they would suck on the government’s tit all day long if it meant they could make some money-
but then they talk about Obama’s socialist policies-
they are so blinded they don’t see their own hypocrisy- vomit inducing
October 14th, 2009 at 9:52 pm
ps .. IVAC UBS this am .. when the discussion came to type of recovery .. W .. V .. U .. and never heard before sq root .. told the crowd imo we’re in for a long check mark .. and driving home I said to myself – with some hickups – just for the markets – that need bumps to create cash flow inflections
October 14th, 2009 at 9:53 pm
@ahab – “how long will the stock bubble last” I actually have the answer to this.
A couple weeks ago I bought 1 weeks worth of my take home pay in FAZ . Yes a couple people here warned against buying these types of funds, thank you VERY much for the advise, but you got to start somewhere.
The reason it is 1 week work of my pay is it puts it into real terms for me, well a couple weeks ago, I had almost a full days pay and we were going into a Friday, everything inside me was screaming SELL it, but I was also feeling froggie about making a little money and desided…… Let her ride……. Well starting out this morning I have two days of unpayed work and I am afraid to check if I have a third day of work after today. YIKES!!!!!!
But it is a good thing I only make minimume wage, the welfare checks and food stamps should help cover my loses – Hey why should the TBTF banktards be the only ones to benifit from governement subsidies……. Jus kidding I make a little more then minimume wage. (McDonalds pays good)
Well anyway to FINALLY answer your question, the bubble will last until I sell my FAZ and not one second longer.
But I am not sure I want to sell it because I enjoy the feeling of the pain of the fire that is burning my fingers.
October 14th, 2009 at 10:05 pm
re-posting- since Wordpress ate my post-
anyway-
my opinion- any indications that the Fed will back off its easing policy could be a market game changer-
and all these market fan bays- “Dow 10,000″ bulls- they’re all in as long as there is USG sponsorship-
such fucking phonies- they would suck on the government’s tit all day long if it meant the market would go up-
but they are the same one’s who say Obama’s policies are s o c i a l i s t-
so blinded they can’t see their own hypocrisy
October 14th, 2009 at 10:12 pm
Barry:
GE is reducing health benefits for employees and is also moving employee 401Ks to GE-managed funds.
Things are getting bad for Dogbert.
October 14th, 2009 at 10:15 pm
Barry gets a gold star for the quote of the day:
Ritholtz said comparisons of current earnings to those of a year ago or stock levels to the lows of earlier this year greatly exaggerate the strength even the market sees in the economic outlook.
“It’s like saying the Detroit Lions have better year-over-year comparisons because they’re no longer winless,” he said about the football team that went 0-16 in 2008, but has won one of five games so far this year. “But they’re still in last place and they’re not winning the Super Bowl.”
October 14th, 2009 at 10:15 pm
@bergsten: The problem is I don’t even get the right menu with this browser. Works perfectly with Safari 4.0
October 14th, 2009 at 10:16 pm
LB – Reduced healh benefits would be cost saving move therefor a greed shoot, oooops did I say greed shoot I ment, yea greed shoot.
October 14th, 2009 at 10:18 pm
No Lions in the Super Bowl? No Dow 40,000 Barry?
October 14th, 2009 at 10:20 pm
@investor: I had my beef with Barry earlier, but that is a great quote. Classic indeed. Nothing false about it, for sure. No matter. We apparently will stay in la-la land for longer than most of us had imagined. We basically underestimated the stupidity of our fellow citizens to engage in more short-term money-grabbing at the expense of everything else. Not to self: Never, ever do that again. It’sa mad dash to “getting back to even”, as Cramer’s new book so uneloquently puts it.
October 14th, 2009 at 10:21 pm
@LB 10:15pm — Sigh — “It’s all junk”
October 14th, 2009 at 10:22 pm
Is Mr. Ritholtz a lions fan?
All I know is the Seahawks are on their way to being Super Bowl Champs…… wow now that is all crazy speak.
October 14th, 2009 at 10:22 pm
And here it is, already marked down 40% on Amazon for $15 and change. Any takers?
http://www.amazon.com/Jim-Cramers-Getting-Back-Even/dp/1439158010
October 14th, 2009 at 10:25 pm
@Greg0658 Says:
October 14th, 2009 at 9:42 pm
TakBak04 .. fyi .. 4,096 bytes to ditto into the www forever (well till armageddon) playback machine
fyi .. you can (in IE7) right mouse click over the blue date/time stamp and copy shortcut and paste to reference it:
——–
Thanks for the tip…but I’m a Newbie and can’t seem to get anything to work to post on this site. Double posts and multiple trips to get a new password. I’m figuring “BR” is keeping this site to “Regulars” he trusts or folks with exceptional HTML Skills who can navigate it. I use Firefox and when I “right mouse clicked over the date/time stamp…nothing came up.
I apologize to Barry and you all for “double posting” and wierd things like { or [ showing up in my initial posts.
I just don’t understand how to use this site. And, I can certainly understand why Barry might want it to be difficult given the Trolls and Asshat’s out there who come on and trash site.
I just haven’t figured out how to post here and not annoy folks with double posts because the box doesn’t work. I see so many others posting and their replies get to the right place @Joe Smith..reply.
Whatever. It’s possible that BR wants the site to be contained.
October 14th, 2009 at 10:28 pm
No wonder why we’re in a “mini-economic boom”. Thousands of people living mortgage or rent free everywhere, it seems……these rulings, if they continue to happen around the country could have profound implications, no? Debt jubilee for all?
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/10/massachusetts-land-court-upholds-ruling-reversing-thousands-of-foreclosures.html
October 14th, 2009 at 10:35 pm
For all we bash Mr. Wanger on here due to his thin arguments that real economic recovery is driving this rally, the man has been right the past couple of months riding the market. Problem is, we are calling apples and oranges the same thing in thinking the poor state of the United States economy means the stock market will also be dismal. The market is not the same as the U.S. economy, clearly, as it has so many other factors built into it, the main ones being crowd psychology, gamesmanship, and the valuation being denominated in a FIAT currency.
I am of the thinking LB has a bingo on the “One Trade” theory. I don’t think it will last, obviously, but with the dollar as it is, it’s hard to know what to do. I think the main roadblock will be if we get a rate hike eventually. Rates can’t stay at 0% forever, and the tightrope walk is a difficult one to put a finger on. I thought it was beginning to turn at S&P 1078, so I sold some longs on Oct 1 and am kicking myself for the “opportunity cost” now that it went higher, but I don’t know how much more upside this thing has to go along with the smoke and mirrors, cheerleading and devaluation continuing. S&P 1174 seems to me to be the next big target. We’ll see, I still am sleeping better right now after transferring a lot of cash to a 3% APY guaranteed bank fund and Job security concerns right now.
For insights on the Market vs the Economy, I’ll leave all of us “suckers” with some pertinent quotes from Reminiscences of a Stock Operator:
“Suckers differ among themselves according to the degree of experience. The tyro knows nothing, and everybody, including himself, knows it. But the next, or second grade thinks he knows a great deal and makes other feel that way too. He is the experienced sucker, who has studied-not the market itself but a few remarks about the market made by a still higher grade of suckers. . . . He knows all the dont’s that ever fell from the oracular lips of the old stagers-excepting the principal one, which is: Don’t be a Sucker!” Fact is, we are All Suckers.
“the big Money was not in the individual fluctuations, but in the main movements–that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.”
“Now, the point is not so much to buy as cheap as possible or go short at top prices, but to buy or sell at the right time.”
“Another thing to bear in mond is this: Never try to sell at the top. It isn’t wise. Sell after a reaction if there is no rally.”
“The speculator’s deadly enemies are: Ignorance, greed, fear, and hope. All the statute books in the world and all the rules of all the exchanges on earth cannot eliminate these from the human animal.”
and finally “It takes continuous buying to make a stock keep on going up. As long as it does so, with only small and natural reactions from time to time, it is a pretty safe proposition to trail along with it. But if after a long steady rise a stock turns and gradually begins to go down, with only occasional small rallies, it is obvious that the line of least resistance has changed from upward to downward.”
now the hard part is discerning just when that change in trend has occurred. Thankfully, I figured it out quickly with some help in early 2008 and somewhat with “reflation” stocks earlier this year, so I haven’t lost my ass. . . but i would much rather have been completely right on the money all the time!
What do you guys think? Also, Lefty, what are your prognostications on the “One Trade” theory.
Sorry for the long post, but the quotes are great wisdom from a great book.
October 14th, 2009 at 11:12 pm
TakBak04 Says: @8:49 Barry posted that this “run” could go on. He’s posted verifications from other sites that the US Economy is NOT the Stock Market.
True, I posted that above before I read the whole thread. So you guys are thinking new years after a rough Christmas for the fall? I really thought it would be October with the free money and easing, er. . . easing, but who knows, we could well all be wrong. You can’t compete with human psychology, you can only recognize it for what it is, and play within the “rules of the game.”
October 14th, 2009 at 11:23 pm
TakBak,
I appreciate the sentiment, but, hardly, do I deserve any such badge..
as far as: “put themselves “on the line”” is concerned, the only thing I’m doing is, personally, underwriting a POV, either my own, or others that I find meritorious. It, really, isn’t that much, at all.
October 14th, 2009 at 11:37 pm
The ONE TRADE (dollar carry) is on until Mrs Watanabe sings, or until all the correlations break down.
October 14th, 2009 at 11:41 pm
Dan, none of us has a clue when the risk-on trade will be taken off, although we’ll offer this about the Turn:
– the Truth, as MEH would put it, is – we’ll Know It, when we See It.
October 14th, 2009 at 11:44 pm
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_INX&v=dmax
this thing looks like it could go to ~1175-~1210 b4 serious resistance, chartwise..
though, I’d keep an eye on this: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CBOT_ZB.Z09.E&v=d12
back thru its 50dma, weakening long-bond bodes ill 4 stox..
past that, this: http://clusty.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&query=options+as+risk+management+tool is a good ex. of what the ‘business world’ knows, but is deemed ‘too risky’ for indiv. (in-)vestors–the IIs should wonder..
October 14th, 2009 at 11:48 pm
MEH – what is that last link you sent? All it brings up is a search list, which article are you referring to?
October 14th, 2009 at 11:51 pm
and, as lb, ably, and succinctly, puts it: “none of us has a clue when the risk-on trade will be taken off”.
til’ then, good thing these..: http://clusty.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&query=ratio+hedge
Hedge Ratio
1. A ratio of the value of the proportion of a position that is hedged to the value of the entire position. A hedge ratio shows how exposed an investment is to risk. For example, if a hedge ratio is .65, then 65% of the investment is protected from risk, while 35% remains exposed.
2. A ratio of the value of a futures contract to the value of the underlying asset. This is used to identify and minimize risk in the contract.
http://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Hedge+Ratio
..are, still, executable..
October 14th, 2009 at 11:53 pm
Thor,
most all of them..examples of different ‘industries’ using options to C(Their)A
October 14th, 2009 at 11:56 pm
Thanks lefty for the reply. . . the carry trade is just one more multiplied wrinkle to deal with in the many imputs driving the stock market, and currently IMO one of the most important ones. I thought i had a candidate for a turnaround before due to mostly domestic concerns, but obviously in our new global economy, the game ain’t the same as it used to be! Hope I’m not both wrong and unlucky.
October 15th, 2009 at 12:09 am
Just watch the buck. The buck always stops eventually.
HARRY and JOHNNY aren’t playing the carry trade but the IBs were, and the hedge funds are, with leverage.
This is a very peculiar rally in terms of thin volume, so the last guys in on the long side may not have conviction.
October 15th, 2009 at 12:22 am
@DiggidyDan:
Thanks for the Livermore quote. Great trading classic.
October 15th, 2009 at 12:23 am
Buck vs. a currency basket, commodity basket, gold, a foreign fiat, or region, treasuries, blend of it all? I’m getting overwhelmed by the imputs with my limited experience in such an environment. I can understand the basic concept, but damn, i’m too young to remember a beast of this nature to draw upon.
October 15th, 2009 at 12:31 am
Agreed Emmanuel, I have many tomes bookmarked with flags to draw and reflect upon. Recognizing and filtering out the crucial kernels at the apt time is the hard part.
October 15th, 2009 at 12:42 am
to quote some internet pundits on the carry trade:
The carry trade strategy, in which low-yielding currencies are sold to finance the purchase of riskier, higher-yielding assets, was widely used in the years prior to the eruption of the financial crisis.
Speculative positioning data seem to back up the shift against the dollar, revealing the extent of recent deterioration in dollar sentiment.
According to figures from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which are often used as a proxy for hedge fund activity, aggregate bets against the dollar versus the euro, yen, Swiss franc, sterling and the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars last week rose to their highest levels since July 2008, when the dollar hit a record low against the euro.
October 15th, 2009 at 12:46 am
Liz Claman’s a Fox News sellout. They are a sick, anti-American Rupert Murdock racist collective.
She’s dead to me.
October 15th, 2009 at 12:53 am
Now with 10k in the rear view mirror and having heard all of the same bull shit from most posters here when the Dow crossed 9k (crash tomorrow, after opex, Sept 1, Oct 1, etc, etc., the next target is 11k. Pretty much a given now with money chasing the rally on strong earnings (much stronger than anyone expected) and strong economic news. The mini economic boom is upon us, yet I’ll still get bashed for predicting this weeks ago. C’est la vie!
October 15th, 2009 at 12:57 am
Hey, I gave you some cred man. . . we’re just saying it’s not based upon the factors you cite. Markets are Markets and the U.S. Economy is different. If you truly follow what you have espoused, you have done well in the last months, excepting the whole RIMM debacle.
October 15th, 2009 at 1:13 am
speaking of RIMM..
“…I liked the iPhone but the lack of keyboard made Blackberry look inviting. In the end, what sealed the deal for me was the apparently anti-competitive behavior of Apple (AAPL) and AT&T (T) in declining to accept Google Voice as an App for the iPhone.
Apple Is Growing Rotten To The Core: Official Google Voice App Blocked From App Store
FCC Takes On Apple And AT&T Over Google Voice Rejection
Why The FCC Wants To Smash Open The iPhone
Andy Kessler: WSJ: Why AT&T Killed Google Voice
Apple Isn’t Even Bothering To Lie Anymore
Why should I reward companies which are engaging in this type of behavior with my business? Apple is already acting anti-competitively by tying iTunes to the iPhone and iPod. So I went elsewhere.
Android is an open-source software system, which means that the code is available for everyone to see, which gives developers maximum flexibility. It also means that Google can’t win the OS war by making your life more difficult and tying you into their system like Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple do. Instead, they must compete to be the best at what they do.
And they are doing that well. The video below from Bloomberg features Nicholas Thompson of Wired Magazine telling us why Android is gaining ground on Apple…”
http://seekingalpha.com/article/166470-why-android-is-gaining-ground-on-apple?source=yahoo
at least GOOG can take advantage of, both, open-source, and their competitors *-UPs..
~~
past that, C. Whalen, and Josh Rosner, don’t get, nearly, enough credit for their abilities..
October 15th, 2009 at 1:20 am
DiggidyDan: What whole RIMM debacle? I bought it on a tight stop and stopped out quickly. Not a debacle for me. Maybe baggies but I don’t play that way.
October 15th, 2009 at 1:31 am
DiggidyDan,
you may care to check out http://www.optionseducation.org/ + http://www.optionseducation.org/related/default.jsp
you may find that, in this levered World, it helps to employ some for your own account..
October 15th, 2009 at 1:43 am
Your trading strategy is sound with stops on long positions; the prediction on RIMM and the implications of recovering discretionary U.S. earnings is to what i was referring. The momentum buying has been a good play, see referenced Livermore quotes above. I am sure you will be fine (and in fact better than most) as long as you have your stops in place and don’t chase lows if a crash occurs. However, the reasoning i disagree with. I am willing to admit a wrong call on Oct 1, however, do not mistake a call on the economy for a trading strategy. Nimble is the key and you obviously understand that, similar to what you pointed out before about BR’s stance.
Wisdom is knowing that you don’t know it all, and as i said before, hubris comes before the fall; and in this environment sticking to a sound strategy of limiting risk through stops is very prudent and i give you credit for that. That said, I still think the U.S. economy is not recovering, and we could see more carnage in domestic corporate earnings and equity valuations.
October 15th, 2009 at 1:51 am
Diggidy: I’ve done extremely well during this rally adding on 2-4% pullbacks and stopping out on anything more. What I fail to understand is how so many, in the face of strong corporate earnings and economic reports, still maintain it’s a false economic recovery. I just don’t get it. It’s like the sun is shining yet many posters here say, “no it’s not, it’s cloudy”. It’s unreal. Everything is telling us, and if you don’t get it by now when will you, that the sun is shining brightly without a cloud in sight. I fell good about that and about our nation’s resiliency to bounce back from despair to prosperity once again.
October 15th, 2009 at 6:10 am
Would someone, anyone, audit Wanger’s perspicacious moves in this market?
I’m finding his relentless profitable trades a bit like a Bernie Madoff scheme.
October 16th, 2009 at 1:04 am
Just for you BR. ;o)
“Yes, the CRA Is Toxic”
http://www.city-journal.org/2009/19_4_snd-cra.html