S&P500: % Change from Recession Market Trough
David Rosenberg points out that this has been the sharpest recession rally — ever:
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click for ginormous chart
Source: Gluskin Sheff
Note this chart is through 9/11/09 — its even higher now!
David Rosenberg points out that this has been the sharpest recession rally — ever:
>
click for ginormous chart
Source: Gluskin Sheff
Note this chart is through 9/11/09 — its even higher now!
October 15th, 2009 at 11:39 am
And still more to go! What does that mean? That we’re headed for a very robust recovery? Or another dive off the cliff? Is this thing ever going to flatten out?
Recovery aside, I’m really not angry about this rally, more nervous. Looking at this graph, how is this not another bubble?
October 15th, 2009 at 11:46 am
1) “David Rosenberg points out that this has been the sharpest recession rally — ever:”
-> This has been the largest fiscal, and monetary stimulus – ever.
2) Note this chart is through 9/11/09 — its even higher now!
-> S&P500 about where it was – nominally – in 1998 (Dow about 1999). In real (inflation adjusted) terms is hugely negative. Money printing by the Fed vs. gold std. Go with the gold std. Debt gives the illusion of wealth. For a while.
Some perspective on the Mkt. – Wall St. – correlation with the real – Main St. – economy (follows). Still a bear mkt. rally, but admittedly in the “the mother of” category.
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http://robertreich.blogspot.com/
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
Why the Dow Broke 10,000, and Why You Should Still Watch Your Wallet
How did the Dow break 10,000 when the rest of the economy is in the toilet?
1. Corporate earnings are up — mainly because companies have been cutting costs. Payrolls comprise 70 percent of most companies’ costs, which means companies have been slashing jobs. In the end, this is a self-defeating strategy. If workers don’t have jobs or are afraid of losing them, they won’t buy, and company profits will disappear.
2. Federal borrowing has filled the gap that consumers and businesses created when the latter began to reduce their debt. Federal debt, in other words, has kept the economy from tanking. Can’t keep up forever, though.
3. With such horrid employment numbers, Wall Street figures the Fed will keep interest rates low for some time, and continue to flood the economy with money. That’s good news for the Street because it means money stays cheap — and with cheap money the Street can make lots of bets on almost everything under the sun and moon. As a result, the Street’s earnings are way up. But this, too, is temporary. At some point the Fed is going to worry about inflation and a falling dollar.
4. Investors of all stripes want to get in early and ride the wave. Pension funds, mutual funds, and other institutional investors figure the bull market has more oomph in it because, well, other investors will jump in. Think Ponzi scheme. Nice for now, but watch out if you’re one of the last in.
In other words, this is all temporary fluff, folks. Anyone who hasn’t learned by now that there’s almost no relationship between the Dow and the real economy deserves to lose his or her shirt in the Wall Street casino.
October 15th, 2009 at 11:50 am
Trillions of dollars in QE will do that.
But here is the key question: what happens when the QE pump stops? Where is the demand coming from?
Last fall, the Fed and Treasury pretty much committed to preserving banks, asset values and full employment. There is only one way to do this: QE. We don’t have the savings otherwise.
Either the Fed stops QE and the market crashes.
Or the Fed continues QE and the dollar crashes.
With the tiny possibility that the Fed threads the needle and saves both.
October 15th, 2009 at 11:51 am
Trillions will do that.
October 15th, 2009 at 11:53 am
No surprise, given the unprecedented amounts of money that has been poured into Wall Street, and the unprecedented amount of leverage that has been applied to it. The equities markets ARE a bubble today, although I’m a but uncertain about what they hope to accomplish by a bubble in response to the popping of the previous bubble.
I cannot recall a single bubble that has ever ended other than explosively. Given the weakened state of the US economy, when this one goes — whether next week, next month, next year, or several years down the road — it will likely result in the economic collapse of the US of Bananamerica. This is not just idle claptrap or the ravings of a crazed bear. The first thing that will happen when the equities bubble bursts is that there will be wave after wave of layoffs, on top of what will still be a 9%-10% U3 rate, driving it up towards 13%-15%, and the U6 rate well over 20%, probably in the neighborhood of 25% or more.
From that point, the collapse of a good portion of corporate America will topple the bond markets. And this won’t be so easily addressed as was the last panic, with bailouts for a smallish number of very large firms. I’m certain that capital controls will be in place by then, things like outrageous tax rates on precious metals, and foreign stock funds or foreign holdings by individuals.
But until that time arrives, party on!
October 15th, 2009 at 11:55 am
The chart would be interesting to see in terms of gold or euros. A significant chunk of the rise is illusory, due to the Incredible Shrinking Dollar.
October 15th, 2009 at 11:55 am
@Thor: I think you have it right. That graph should make us all feel very uneasy. It’s most definitely another bubble.
October 15th, 2009 at 12:01 pm
@constant,
no doubt re your 11:55, The DOW priced in Gold is a waterfall since 2000.
@Thor,
for us oddballs that believe the market is a fractal, repeating at many degrees of trend, it is concerning to see the other time period that matches this so closely is the GD rally.
October 15th, 2009 at 12:05 pm
@constantnormal: Quite thoughtful. It is as if we’re all on the Titanic after the iceberg hit.
What saddens me the most is the amount of capital (money and political) expended so far. IIRC, Argentina had something like 5 goverments in 2 years during their collapse – with promising a fix and then being too stupid, unwilling or unable to do the right thing.
October 15th, 2009 at 12:22 pm
I don’t think this is a correct interpretation. The rally is based off not recession trough levels but from a panic crash levels.
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BR: Yes, mentioned that here
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October 15th, 2009 at 12:34 pm
Sharpest ever and justifiably so. Never before have we seen such decisive action from corporate America and the government to get the economy turned around so swiftly. That hasn’t happened before. History has taught us lessons and we’ve learned well. It’s fortunate for all of us that Bernanke also happened to be in place at the right time with an acute education of the GD, to address last year’s crisis so effectively.
October 15th, 2009 at 12:35 pm
@constantnormal
We are seeing a second collapse in my area, which is not any of the big four bubble states. It is astonishing to see so many more store fronts for rent, and the stores that are still in business have half the customers and everything is on sale.
Of course, this is all anecdotal, but I got an email that DisneyWorld was offering “buy four nights get three more free”.
My extremely cheap but terrific Thai restaurant tells me that they do mostly a take-out business now, few customers are sitting down. Our also cheap Mexican restaurant was only 1/3 full on a Friday night.
Our little local family owned grocery store who has been in business 30 years is struggling. They have the best meat department and it is strange to see them so empty of customers. And I live in a fairly affluent area.
I won’t even go into the housing market as it is grim.
A long time ago I learned that the stock of a company is not the same as the company, and that the stock market has nothing to do with the fundamentals of the economy. Government and earnings reports can be massaged, and gosh, they even lie sometimes especially when their bonuses are tied to the stock price.
Despite the incredible rally, stock prices do not mirror what the true economic conditions are in this country, and just by looking around it is easy to see that things are very grim and about to get grimmer, and stocks will do what they will do.
October 15th, 2009 at 12:35 pm
Anything up to SP500 1230 and DOW 11,500 will not surprise me…
In order to actually get a reversal, you need bullish sentiment to be off the charts. Sentiment is bullish now, but it will be more bullish as prices go up, and the final buyers come in for this up leg… Even at SP500 1250, you will still be 300 SP500 points from the 2007 highs, and that is with all of the coordinated global liquidity and bailouts. Once the positive sentiment of this snapback has been exhausted, there should be a big selloff.
Even if the long term story is bullish, you would want to see a big pull back making a base with a higher low.
The real question is as posed by Martin Armstrong.
Will the world lose confidence in the US gov. and the dollar for real? Even if the economic situation deteriorates, people will not go into the dollar as a safe haven if no one trusts the USD/ gov anymore. If that actually plays out, you get the dollar taking out the lows and nominally assets will take off. There is an article on Bloomberg today of an analyst from Sumitomo who sees the Yen at 50 to a dollar. If this dollar is dead talk is unfounded, people will go into the dollar, you will get a rally and an equity/commodity decline… Vis a vis the USD and gov, it certainly seems as if they are losing prestige in the eyes of the investment world, though as Faber said yesterday, the short dollar, long gold/equities trade is near term overdone…
Only time will tell…
October 15th, 2009 at 12:36 pm
Can we have just one day maybe where someone doesn’t respond to you know who?
October 15th, 2009 at 12:41 pm
dss: Where are you that you are seeing this “anecdotal second collapse”? I’m not seeing it in my area and right now on business in Minneapolis, I’m certainly not seeing it here. Where are you seeing this?
October 15th, 2009 at 12:46 pm
OK – except this once – Can’t remember if it’s Manny or Ahab who lives in Minny – this one deserves a local response for sure
October 15th, 2009 at 12:52 pm
Harry Wanger,
“It’s fortunate for all of us that Bernanke also happened to be in place at the right time with an acute education of the GD, to address last year’s crisis so effectively.”
As far as I know, Bernanke wanted to get the banks “lending again” with all these measures. Are they expanding credit again?
What will happens when all the unprecedented stimulus spending is faded by the government? Are households and businesses (w/o financial institutions) going to load on another 25 trillion dollars of private debt, which is needed to double the current debt load again like it has happened in every decade for the last 30 years? What does your crystal ball predict with respect to that?
Thor,
Probably not. Some just can’t help it.
rc
October 15th, 2009 at 1:00 pm
@Thor: I live in Minneapolis (good God, Wanger and I could be neighbors) and although it’s not as bad here overall as some places around the country (due largely to a diversified economy with many large corporate headquarters here, believe it or not), CRE in partciular is in brutal shape. They way overbuilt condos and CRE here. There is TONS of new CRE space that is basically empty. Homes ARE selling in my neighborhood and other nice city neighborhoods in the $450K and below range due largely to the housing credit and low rates. Not sure what they’re doing in the burbs though. They seem to be slowing now, as not many people buy homes here in winter, for obvious reason (although that’s probably the best time to get a good price). I believe unemployment is about 8%+ here, so it’s not as bad as in some places, but it’s not booming (no “mini-economic boom”), that’s for sure. The restaurants in my neighborhood seem pretty busy, for the most, although I don’t eat out much (maybe once/week), so I don’t know what kinds of dollars people are spending when out to eat.
October 15th, 2009 at 1:05 pm
So this recession rally has about a 50% retrace under its belt. Given that this was the mother of all credit bubbles(choose your metric), should we not expect the mother of all bear market rallies? Ill go on a limb and say more than 100% before its all done. That would put S&P in the 1325 area.
It’ll be a slow scary ride,(all rallies are) but the people who missed the bottom have now created a solid floor for this market.
I can’t believe i’m sayin this, but continue to buy the dips…
Just don’t get caught standin when the music stops. How will you know? Thats the tricky part, readin the tea-leaves..
I’m betting that this Administration will simply not allow a major equity sell-off goin into 2010 political season – they LOVE them some asset bubbles!!
October 15th, 2009 at 1:14 pm
scharfy: Just keep true to stops. Anything over 4% pull back and I’m out. Works like a charm.
Mannwich: thanks for supporting my post. At least you’re posting what you see. And guess what? There are many places like Minneapolis that are doing well. I travel often and see it weekly. The improvement in store traffic and restaurants has been nothing short of dramatic.
October 15th, 2009 at 1:23 pm
I don’t get it. “From market trough to official end of the recession”. This means if the board gets together and decides the recession ended on March 6th, then the rally was 0%. Or if they decide it ended in July then the rally was 40%. It’s rather difficult to make a chart showing this is the biggest rally ever, when one doesn’t even know when the official end of the recession will be (or was).
October 15th, 2009 at 1:24 pm
Rootless said – “What will happens when all the unprecedented stimulus spending is faded by the government? Are households and businesses”
Well print more money duh….. You really think Bearnake and Barak are going to let us down.
Now go out and buy some dips, the idicies say so. And leave the little things like the debt to the big people.
October 15th, 2009 at 1:28 pm
Constant:
Here ya go:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/dow-10000-oh-wait-make-7537
Dow both inflation-adjusted and in terms of gold
This “Rally” doesn’t look so impressive now, does it?
October 15th, 2009 at 1:28 pm
@Wanger: Why would I lie? Just the facts, sir. What I will remind you is that overall the Twin Cities is faring far better than other places. Keep that in mind. This area is not representative of what’s happening in a macro sense around the country.
October 15th, 2009 at 1:29 pm
And let me add – - that deals are everywhere at restaurants and stores here, from what I can tell. That’s bringing the frugal out (like me) to spend a bit, but to an extent I think that goes away once the sales go away. Many smaller busineses can’t run these promotions and sales forever and stay alive. Just keep that in mind.
October 15th, 2009 at 1:30 pm
Global Big Finance is running this. Government is merely doing what they’re paid by GBF to do.
This has nothing to do with the US consumer or wellbeing, at present.
This has everything to do with a Global Big Finance remake. A megashift.
October 15th, 2009 at 1:35 pm
@Mannwich
Borders is finally offering free wireless. If Barnes & Noble starts offering power outlets for laptops…
October 15th, 2009 at 1:39 pm
OK. I give up. I am fully in from now on. I am increasing my stock allocation to 99% with today’s dip and I’ll go with the indicies. Harry Wagner has convinced me.
rc
October 15th, 2009 at 1:44 pm
@emmanuel: I have no idea how Borders stays in business. Me-thinks they’ll be BK soon. It’s just a matter of time.
October 15th, 2009 at 1:47 pm
Oh Goodie Rootless it is nice to see you are gaining some of your common sense back, but why don’t you cowboy up and go all 100%?
Also on another post this Ahab fellow said I was a fucking idiot, if you see him around today can you let him know I am a virgin so therefor can not be a “fucking” idiot.
Yes and now that you have joined this HOG Economy that will be going boom-Boom-BOom-BOOm-BOOM for years things will be even splender.
Hmmm I am wonder if I should have some lepel pins made up for all my HOG Economy converts.
YEaaaaaaaa INDICIES……..
October 15th, 2009 at 1:52 pm
In addition to $12Trillion bailout to Wall St we’re spending $3.6 billion a month for Afghanistan http://rawstory.com/2009/10/us-spends-1-million-per-soldier-in-afghanistan-government-report-says/ ( will go up if Obama raises troop levels ) + Iraq spending ( ? ) plus all the other bailouts + stimulus etc etc etc likely result in the economic collapse of the US of Bananamerica ( agree with constantnormal )
This is insane and unsustainable !
October 15th, 2009 at 1:53 pm
For anyone suggesting they see the economy coming around based on where they visit, let me ask you this. Where I live in Southeastern CT, there are many small business that have closed up shop over the last 2 years. If I go out on a Friday night to Restaraunt A that looks busy, how much of it is because Restaraunt B, his competitor, bit the dust? Yet based on how busy Reataraunt A looks, the economy is getting better? WTF?
October 15th, 2009 at 2:02 pm
@Km4
Totally agree. My take is that, in general, the American population will actually allow itself to be taken advantage of even more. A few % points income tax here, VAT tax there, inflation here, sales tax there and VOILA! problem averted for a decade. I mean i totally agree, but have i paid my taxes? yes. So until we collectivley grow a spine, GAME ON! It sickens me to no end, but what ya gonna do?
October 15th, 2009 at 2:04 pm
We’re in a manic/depressive market. The manic periods are easy enough — just surrender to the insanity and have a good time (you might even want to smoke a little crack, just to put a fine point on things). It’s the down side you have to worry about, and there’s always a down side. But enough of that! Take another hit off the old rock, and let’s bet the farm!
October 15th, 2009 at 2:11 pm
A point I don’t see much discussed is that the pay-to-play crowd is reportedly under-invested and they are lagging the passive index investors. Career risk is a bigger issue than losing OPM.
If the above is true we could see a melt-up to the end of the year and a very good setup to going short. The Fed has until March to complete their MBS monetization and only $6 billion remaining in their Treasury monetization. There are several possibilities then – one being to prevent rising rates to “withdraw” liquidity to the market to create a “panic” move into Treasury, the other to re-up the monetization amounts and force the decision making on the foreign holders of USD assets.
Either way excellent trading opportunities ahead.
October 15th, 2009 at 2:27 pm
As I said in early August, the inverse measures to 1230. Also, you would think it a high probability that we run into resistance at 200 week MA which is at 1240ish now. That being said, we have resistance at the dashed midline just under 1100, and the price is so far above the 50 week MA that we should see a pullback, a consolidation and one more leg up. Or something completely different may happen….
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_r47sOI__h_M/SneXvwghMNI/AAAAAAAABYQ/C1eIfk8_9c8/s1600-h/Picture+5.png
October 15th, 2009 at 2:30 pm
ok-
let’s assume that we go to S&P 1332 in the next couple months- a 100% correction-
and let’s assume that this occurs because QE is continued, ZIRP continued, home buyer tax credits are expanded/extended, bank credit facilities left open at the Fed, continuation of USG domination in the mortgage market (90% as we speak)-
so . . . have we entered a new age- where the USG is the partner of big business- where the market will remain strong as long as the USG provides continued support at all levels-
maybe the USG will never extricate themselves- maybe it is a new realtionship- to remain so- because the USG knows without its support the markets would collapse
October 15th, 2009 at 2:35 pm
ab initio-
my guess- is that BB will quickly extend QE in treasuries and MBS if he believes the markets can’t hold up-
the markets are completely dependent on the USG-
not quite sure how that will be resolved
October 15th, 2009 at 2:45 pm
@dmlopr
Conditions are definetly deteriorating here based upon what I see. I would assume that since so many restaurants and stores have gone out of business, that the ones left should be doing well, but they are not. That is a real tell for me. I have a relative in the restaurant business so I also get feed back about the industry first hand from someone who has contacts over the eastern half of the country. And they are telling me that based upon their knowledge of individual restaurants, (not chains) business is getting worse, many are closing and the ones that are remaining are struggling.
Home foreclosures here also illustrate the changing nature and the worsening of the economy. The city has 6% foreclosures, while the collar counties are facing increases of 103% to 693% (that is not a typo) yoy. So the people in the boonies are now losing their homes not because of sub-prime issues, but because they have lost their jobs, their savings are depleted. These are not the people who will begin spending tomorrow.
I am sure that there are places where things are getting better, but I do not see it here. How it relates to the market/economy is not easily predictable as these types of things are the last things to show improvement, but the point is that there IS no improvement yet in my area.
Ignoring the bad statistics while irrationally beating the drum when there is a good statistic is the sign of a delusional mind. Hubris is a very unattractive attribute.
October 15th, 2009 at 2:48 pm
@ahab
I think im pickin up what your puttin down.
It just seems like the rules of the game are no longer valid. Bankruptcy interventions, bailouts, QE ad infinitum, banning short sales. I mean the GOVT directly hit anybodywho dared short a bankrupt financial stock right in the pocketbook. So im goin to just ignore common sense and go by what i see. I dare anyone to say with any confidence what kind of political/social/financial climate we are goin to be in come a year from now, much less a decade?
It truly is uncharted waters.
October 15th, 2009 at 2:54 pm
@scharfy
The ECONOMIC “moral high ground” not only flew out the window last election…
It flew out of the atmosphere & the solar system…
It’s somewhere out in the Oort cloud… Never to be seen again except as some passing comet…
October 15th, 2009 at 3:00 pm
@Ahab – I believe you are on to something about the market collapsing when the USG pulls out, but wouldn’t that eliminate risk?
I had a cousin whos father bought him a brand new car for his 16th birthday, within a month he totaled the car, daddy rebuilt it for him, a couple months latter totaled it again, daddy rebuilt it again, a few months latter wrecked it (Not as bad as the other times) daddy had it fixed, the car started to look and drive terribly.
But the point is a year ago we wrecked, Uncle Stupid rebuilt the economy (Market) – seriously how many time and how sustainable is that?
If all I need to know is “buy a bank stock” and in 20 years I will be rich – were is the risk?
Scary really.
October 15th, 2009 at 3:03 pm
14,000, is just a stop on the way to 20,000!!!
October 15th, 2009 at 3:06 pm
Ahab – I agree with you. As much as it pains me to say it. I think the markets will go all the way back up to where they were at their peak.
October 15th, 2009 at 3:10 pm
Several companies were replaced in the DOW over the last year or two. Is this really apples to apples if they can exchange some for some others when they want?
October 15th, 2009 at 3:12 pm
Concerned – no one really uses the DOW anymore. This chart is the S&P
October 15th, 2009 at 3:16 pm
“the markets are completely dependent on the USG-
not quite sure how that will be resolved”
ahab- you are correct that without government intervention that markets can’t stand on their own. How it gets resolved is a very good question with huge investment implications.
Right now US Fed government is borrowing close to 40% of its expenditure as of FY2009 that just ended. That number could rise if the current trend of declining income tax collections continues. This is clearly unsustainable. If the Fed continues to increase the quantity of monetization – which they will have to keep rates down – the Chinese and Japanese will have to decide at some point how much depreciation in their assets they are willing to tolerate. The resolution may be forced in some kind of geopolitically adversarial environment.
October 15th, 2009 at 3:20 pm
Thor… weren’t some companies on the S & P exchanged as well? Doesn’t the same question apply?
October 15th, 2009 at 3:31 pm
This will only make what is to come that more horrific.
October 15th, 2009 at 3:32 pm
I’ve decided to become more cynically bearish… I am still skeptical about the rally, and very cynical about the root causes (QE, accounting rule changes, artificially low interest rates, debasing of dollar, etc.) of it. However, at this point in time, I’m thinking, f—k it, if Rome is burning, I might as well bring some gasoline, or at least enjoy fiddling. Since the Harry Wangers of the world are clearly in the driver’s seat, maybe I shouldn’t fight it. Of course, I’ll have no ethical qualms with (figuratively) putting a bullet in the head of the bulls and stealing their wallets, should the time come in the near future…
HCF
October 15th, 2009 at 4:06 pm
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Despite concerted government-led and lender-supported efforts to prevent foreclosures, the number of filings hit a record high in the third quarter, according to a report issued Thursday.
“They were the worst three months of all time,” said Rick Sharga, spokesman for RealtyTrac, an online marketer of foreclosed homes.
During that time, 937,840 homes received a foreclosure letter — whether a default notice, auction notice or bank repossession, the RealtyTrac report said. That means one in every 136 U.S. homes were in foreclosure, which is a 5% increase from the second quarter and a 23% jump over the third quarter of 2008…”
Yup, it is a fabulous economy, nothing but recovery, gain, and profit as far as the eye can see.
October 15th, 2009 at 5:57 pm
Doesn’t the percentage appear larger because of the weak dollar? i realize this is an composite index chart but prices are what back the index.. dollar doesn’t buy what it once did.. doubling a dollar in 1932 meant more than doubling a dollar today.. you are lucky to get a cup of coffee in a restaurant..
October 15th, 2009 at 6:21 pm
OH MY GOD its exhilarating to read all this honest blog discourse. I’m a pretty typical American: married, kid in college, recently unemployed, cc debt galore, investment home went into foreclosure in 2007, making money in the market, stunned at the disconnect between the average American and DC. I live in Santa Barbara and the main street has so many empty storefronts that its eerie. But the money is going somewhere because there are still lots of people spending lots of $$.
I’m in scharfy’s camp: just sailing the uncharted waters and trying to figure out when to put my sail up and when to take it down. Reading all your comments helps.
October 15th, 2009 at 8:23 pm
get ready for the new taxes, gasoline is breaking out too new highs, refiners must raise prices as oil goes up, buy dem refiners…………it’s pretty simple GS calls out for 85 on oil, that is the top on commodities and the bottom for the dollar, unless we implode in between here and there, which is unlikely cause ya know earnings are goodie, we probably have till januray 10th to suck in all new 401k bonus money, beware……….we fell hard after those dates in both 08 and 09, by that time, all the bonus money will be paid and in the market from retail…………and away we go, to the moon alice, too the moon
October 15th, 2009 at 9:55 pm
Since the NBER hasn’t said that this last depression/recession is over, how can Rosenberg say it’s over?
October 15th, 2009 at 10:07 pm
This market is just freaky: no one will sell anything. Everything I’ve sold into this rally took off like a blue streak. A lot of people are saying “I am not going to sell anything else just to watch it skyrocket”. A lot of institutions, individuals ect are badly positioned and freaking out. I think this is why the volume on up days is so low. You can’t take a large equity position without running the market running away. The volume is higher on dips because people know they missed the boat and are determined to get in. There was an insurance investment manager that was only 9% in stocks and he was managing billions. That has to be some brutal performance anxiety. Also look at WAG and their buyback. You’ll see more of this, and more M&A and improving econ #s. So there is a massive pool of money that wants in very bad, and there are no really large sellers yet. The damn indices barely dip a few points and in swoops the buyers.
October 16th, 2009 at 10:53 am
[...] This telling chart is originally from Gluskin Sheff, but we found it first on The Big Picture. [...]