Comments on: S&P500: % Change from Recession Market Trough http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/sp500-change-from-recession-trough/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Tue, 14 Feb 2012 21:38:31 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.5 By: When a Rally’s Too Good to be True, it Probably Isn’t | TheTradingReport http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/sp500-change-from-recession-trough/comment-page-2/#comment-226535 When a Rally’s Too Good to be True, it Probably Isn’t | TheTradingReport Fri, 16 Oct 2009 14:53:45 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=41284#comment-226535 [...] This telling chart is originally from Gluskin Sheff, but we found it first on The Big Picture. [...] [...] This telling chart is originally from Gluskin Sheff, but we found it first on The Big Picture. [...]

]]> By: thetanman http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/sp500-change-from-recession-trough/comment-page-2/#comment-226403 thetanman Fri, 16 Oct 2009 02:07:17 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=41284#comment-226403 This market is just freaky: no one will sell anything. Everything I've sold into this rally took off like a blue streak. A lot of people are saying "I am not going to sell anything else just to watch it skyrocket". A lot of institutions, individuals ect are badly positioned and freaking out. I think this is why the volume on up days is so low. You can't take a large equity position without running the market running away. The volume is higher on dips because people know they missed the boat and are determined to get in. There was an insurance investment manager that was only 9% in stocks and he was managing billions. That has to be some brutal performance anxiety. Also look at WAG and their buyback. You'll see more of this, and more M&A and improving econ #s. So there is a massive pool of money that wants in very bad, and there are no really large sellers yet. The damn indices barely dip a few points and in swoops the buyers. This market is just freaky: no one will sell anything. Everything I’ve sold into this rally took off like a blue streak. A lot of people are saying “I am not going to sell anything else just to watch it skyrocket”. A lot of institutions, individuals ect are badly positioned and freaking out. I think this is why the volume on up days is so low. You can’t take a large equity position without running the market running away. The volume is higher on dips because people know they missed the boat and are determined to get in. There was an insurance investment manager that was only 9% in stocks and he was managing billions. That has to be some brutal performance anxiety. Also look at WAG and their buyback. You’ll see more of this, and more M&A and improving econ #s. So there is a massive pool of money that wants in very bad, and there are no really large sellers yet. The damn indices barely dip a few points and in swoops the buyers.

]]> By: VennData http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/sp500-change-from-recession-trough/comment-page-2/#comment-226400 VennData Fri, 16 Oct 2009 01:55:11 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=41284#comment-226400 Since the NBER hasn't said that this last depression/recession is over, how can Rosenberg say it's over? Since the NBER hasn’t said that this last depression/recession is over, how can Rosenberg say it’s over?

]]> By: torrie-amos http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/sp500-change-from-recession-trough/comment-page-2/#comment-226373 torrie-amos Fri, 16 Oct 2009 00:23:17 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=41284#comment-226373 get ready for the new taxes, gasoline is breaking out too new highs, refiners must raise prices as oil goes up, buy dem refiners............it's pretty simple GS calls out for 85 on oil, that is the top on commodities and the bottom for the dollar, unless we implode in between here and there, which is unlikely cause ya know earnings are goodie, we probably have till januray 10th to suck in all new 401k bonus money, beware..........we fell hard after those dates in both 08 and 09, by that time, all the bonus money will be paid and in the market from retail............and away we go, to the moon alice, too the moon get ready for the new taxes, gasoline is breaking out too new highs, refiners must raise prices as oil goes up, buy dem refiners…………it’s pretty simple GS calls out for 85 on oil, that is the top on commodities and the bottom for the dollar, unless we implode in between here and there, which is unlikely cause ya know earnings are goodie, we probably have till januray 10th to suck in all new 401k bonus money, beware……….we fell hard after those dates in both 08 and 09, by that time, all the bonus money will be paid and in the market from retail…………and away we go, to the moon alice, too the moon

]]> By: WES http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/sp500-change-from-recession-trough/comment-page-2/#comment-226328 WES Thu, 15 Oct 2009 22:21:35 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=41284#comment-226328 OH MY GOD its exhilarating to read all this honest blog discourse. I'm a pretty typical American: married, kid in college, recently unemployed, cc debt galore, investment home went into foreclosure in 2007, making money in the market, stunned at the disconnect between the average American and DC. I live in Santa Barbara and the main street has so many empty storefronts that its eerie. But the money is going somewhere because there are still lots of people spending lots of $$. I'm in scharfy's camp: just sailing the uncharted waters and trying to figure out when to put my sail up and when to take it down. Reading all your comments helps. OH MY GOD its exhilarating to read all this honest blog discourse. I’m a pretty typical American: married, kid in college, recently unemployed, cc debt galore, investment home went into foreclosure in 2007, making money in the market, stunned at the disconnect between the average American and DC. I live in Santa Barbara and the main street has so many empty storefronts that its eerie. But the money is going somewhere because there are still lots of people spending lots of $$.
I’m in scharfy’s camp: just sailing the uncharted waters and trying to figure out when to put my sail up and when to take it down. Reading all your comments helps.

]]> By: karen http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/sp500-change-from-recession-trough/comment-page-2/#comment-226320 karen Thu, 15 Oct 2009 21:57:17 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=41284#comment-226320 Doesn't the percentage appear larger because of the weak dollar? i realize this is an composite index chart but prices are what back the index.. dollar doesn't buy what it once did.. doubling a dollar in 1932 meant more than doubling a dollar today.. you are lucky to get a cup of coffee in a restaurant.. Doesn’t the percentage appear larger because of the weak dollar? i realize this is an composite index chart but prices are what back the index.. dollar doesn’t buy what it once did.. doubling a dollar in 1932 meant more than doubling a dollar today.. you are lucky to get a cup of coffee in a restaurant..

]]> By: dss http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/sp500-change-from-recession-trough/comment-page-2/#comment-226286 dss Thu, 15 Oct 2009 20:06:39 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=41284#comment-226286 NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Despite concerted government-led and lender-supported efforts to prevent foreclosures, the number of filings hit a record high in the third quarter, according to a report issued Thursday. “They were the worst three months of all time,” said Rick Sharga, spokesman for RealtyTrac, an online marketer of foreclosed homes. During that time, 937,840 homes received a foreclosure letter — whether a default notice, auction notice or bank repossession, the RealtyTrac report said. That means one in every 136 U.S. homes were in foreclosure, which is a 5% increase from the second quarter and a 23% jump over the third quarter of 2008…” Yup, it is a fabulous economy, nothing but recovery, gain, and profit as far as the eye can see. NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Despite concerted government-led and lender-supported efforts to prevent foreclosures, the number of filings hit a record high in the third quarter, according to a report issued Thursday.

“They were the worst three months of all time,” said Rick Sharga, spokesman for RealtyTrac, an online marketer of foreclosed homes.
During that time, 937,840 homes received a foreclosure letter — whether a default notice, auction notice or bank repossession, the RealtyTrac report said. That means one in every 136 U.S. homes were in foreclosure, which is a 5% increase from the second quarter and a 23% jump over the third quarter of 2008…”

Yup, it is a fabulous economy, nothing but recovery, gain, and profit as far as the eye can see.

]]> By: HCF http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/sp500-change-from-recession-trough/comment-page-1/#comment-226272 HCF Thu, 15 Oct 2009 19:32:53 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=41284#comment-226272 I've decided to become more cynically bearish... I am still skeptical about the rally, and very cynical about the root causes (QE, accounting rule changes, artificially low interest rates, debasing of dollar, etc.) of it. However, at this point in time, I'm thinking, f---k it, if Rome is burning, I might as well bring some gasoline, or at least enjoy fiddling. Since the Harry Wangers of the world are clearly in the driver's seat, maybe I shouldn't fight it. Of course, I'll have no ethical qualms with (figuratively) putting a bullet in the head of the bulls and stealing their wallets, should the time come in the near future... HCF I’ve decided to become more cynically bearish… I am still skeptical about the rally, and very cynical about the root causes (QE, accounting rule changes, artificially low interest rates, debasing of dollar, etc.) of it. However, at this point in time, I’m thinking, f—k it, if Rome is burning, I might as well bring some gasoline, or at least enjoy fiddling. Since the Harry Wangers of the world are clearly in the driver’s seat, maybe I shouldn’t fight it. Of course, I’ll have no ethical qualms with (figuratively) putting a bullet in the head of the bulls and stealing their wallets, should the time come in the near future…

HCF

]]> By: Paul Jones http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/sp500-change-from-recession-trough/comment-page-1/#comment-226268 Paul Jones Thu, 15 Oct 2009 19:31:05 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=41284#comment-226268 This will only make what is to come that more horrific. This will only make what is to come that more horrific.

]]> By: Concerned American http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/sp500-change-from-recession-trough/comment-page-1/#comment-226266 Concerned American Thu, 15 Oct 2009 19:20:52 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=41284#comment-226266 Thor... weren't some companies on the S & P exchanged as well? Doesn't the same question apply? Thor… weren’t some companies on the S & P exchanged as well? Doesn’t the same question apply?

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