Comments on: The More You Dig Into the Numbers, the Worse They Get http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/the-more-you-dig-into-the-numbers-the-worse-they-get/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Tue, 14 Feb 2012 23:28:32 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.5 By: The Meck Deck » Blog Archive » BofA’s Darkest Day Still Ahead? http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/the-more-you-dig-into-the-numbers-the-worse-they-get/comment-page-3/#comment-222625 The Meck Deck » Blog Archive » BofA’s Darkest Day Still Ahead? Mon, 05 Oct 2009 12:15:40 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=40054#comment-222625 [...] start with the big picture. September’s employment numbers were sobering — at least to anyone not already drunk on “recovery” Kool-Aid. With 25 [...] [...] start with the big picture. September’s employment numbers were sobering — at least to anyone not already drunk on “recovery” Kool-Aid. With 25 [...]

]]> By: October Investing: A Spooky Month for Stocks? - CBS MoneyWatch.com http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/the-more-you-dig-into-the-numbers-the-worse-they-get/comment-page-3/#comment-222618 October Investing: A Spooky Month for Stocks? - CBS MoneyWatch.com Mon, 05 Oct 2009 11:29:29 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=40054#comment-222618 [...] the past couple of quarters, companies have increased profits by cutting costs, i.e. by laying off workers. Going forward, we want to see sales and increased revenues that are driven by consumer spending. [...] [...] the past couple of quarters, companies have increased profits by cutting costs, i.e. by laying off workers. Going forward, we want to see sales and increased revenues that are driven by consumer spending. [...]

]]> By: toblerone http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/the-more-you-dig-into-the-numbers-the-worse-they-get/comment-page-3/#comment-222450 toblerone Sun, 04 Oct 2009 14:10:25 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=40054#comment-222450 Barry-please remember Abelson is a perma bear and got the entire 1980s decade wrong before promoting his pieces to your readers. Barron's should have fired him 20 years ago. Unemployment is a lagging economic indicator. Fed tightening, 'exit policies' on average comes over 12 months after unemployment peaks. Global reflationary backdrop is incredibly stimulative, sentiment (as evidenced anecdotally by the responses to this post) is still very bearish (which is good for risk assets). The market has rallied a lot and people intuitively feel like its due for a correction. It may but it won't be because of Abelson's analysis but for the broken clock being right twice a day. All suggests we continue to climb the worry wall. Barry-please remember Abelson is a perma bear and got the entire 1980s decade wrong before promoting his pieces to your readers. Barron’s should have fired him 20 years ago. Unemployment is a lagging economic indicator. Fed tightening, ‘exit policies’ on average comes over 12 months after unemployment peaks. Global reflationary backdrop is incredibly stimulative, sentiment (as evidenced anecdotally by the responses to this post) is still very bearish (which is good for risk assets). The market has rallied a lot and people intuitively feel like its due for a correction. It may but it won’t be because of Abelson’s analysis but for the broken clock being right twice a day. All suggests we continue to climb the worry wall.

]]> By: Mike C http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/the-more-you-dig-into-the-numbers-the-worse-they-get/comment-page-2/#comment-222425 Mike C Sun, 04 Oct 2009 09:21:29 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=40054#comment-222425 <i>This is obvious in the gold market…record high speculative long position, as physical demand plunged 22% y/y. Gold is due for a major correction, likely accompanied with a dollar rally.</i> http://www.michaelcovel.com/2009/09/25/dollar-fun/ I don't know, we'll see, but I think stepping in front of the gold freight train and dollar downtrend here and now is a mistake that rivals not covering short stock positions at the March lows. This is obvious in the gold market…record high speculative long position, as physical demand plunged 22% y/y. Gold is due for a major correction, likely accompanied with a dollar rally.

http://www.michaelcovel.com/2009/09/25/dollar-fun/

I don’t know, we’ll see, but I think stepping in front of the gold freight train and dollar downtrend here and now is a mistake that rivals not covering short stock positions at the March lows.

]]> By: godly http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/the-more-you-dig-into-the-numbers-the-worse-they-get/comment-page-2/#comment-222418 godly Sun, 04 Oct 2009 06:24:25 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=40054#comment-222418 The worst of the numbers is unemployment. I can bet that FED is bluffing. Unemployment has already crossed 20% but they keep telling us it is only 9.8%. Guys some important posts at Investing contrarian 1. <a href="http://investingcontrarian.com/?p=484" rel="nofollow"> Fed is going Bankrupt. Unknown computer glitch?</a> 2. <a href="http://investingcontrarian.com/?p=456" rel="nofollow"> 1800 banks set to fail</a> 3.<a href="http://investingcontrarian.com/?p=437" rel="nofollow"> Portfolio update at GA Alpha Fund </a> You can register free to a economy and global financial newsletter at <a href="http://investingcontrarian.com/wp-login.php?action=register" rel="nofollow"> Register Free </a> Fresbee Fund Manager GA alpha Fund Investing Contrarian The worst of the numbers is unemployment. I can bet that FED is bluffing. Unemployment has already crossed 20% but they keep telling us it is only 9.8%.

Guys some important posts at Investing contrarian
1. Fed is going Bankrupt. Unknown computer glitch?
2. 1800 banks set to fail
3. Portfolio update at GA Alpha Fund

You can register free to a economy and global financial newsletter at
Register Free

Fresbee
Fund Manager
GA alpha Fund
Investing Contrarian

]]> By: How the Common Man Sees It http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/the-more-you-dig-into-the-numbers-the-worse-they-get/comment-page-2/#comment-222397 How the Common Man Sees It Sun, 04 Oct 2009 03:20:15 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=40054#comment-222397 Bad formatting. This should close the hole </i> Bad formatting. This should close the hole

]]> By: How the Common Man Sees It http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/the-more-you-dig-into-the-numbers-the-worse-they-get/comment-page-2/#comment-222396 How the Common Man Sees It Sun, 04 Oct 2009 03:19:17 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=40054#comment-222396 @Steve Barry Says: October 3rd, 2009 at 1:31 pm <i>If CBs were smart, they would have been buying as gold went from 250 to 1000…and we wouldn’t be in such a debt hole.<i> Actually, the ones who were buying from $250 that helped drive gold to it's current price are still buying. Also, the ones that were selling in a vain effort to keep the price under $300 are still selling, so your point is invalid The most ominous part is that the buying CBs are no longer interested in buying US paper and want gold instead. If they decided to spend as much on on buying gold as they do US paper then the price of gold would not be at $500 it would be at $4,000 or $5,000 But I know you knew that :) @Steve Barry Says: October 3rd, 2009 at 1:31 pm

If CBs were smart, they would have been buying as gold went from 250 to 1000…and we wouldn’t be in such a debt hole.

Actually, the ones who were buying from $250 that helped drive gold to it’s current price are still buying. Also, the ones that were selling in a vain effort to keep the price under $300 are still selling, so your point is invalid

The most ominous part is that the buying CBs are no longer interested in buying US paper and want gold instead. If they decided to spend as much on on buying gold as they do US paper then the price of gold would not be at $500 it would be at $4,000 or $5,000

But I know you knew that :)

]]> By: insaneclownposse http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/the-more-you-dig-into-the-numbers-the-worse-they-get/comment-page-2/#comment-222394 insaneclownposse Sun, 04 Oct 2009 03:09:08 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=40054#comment-222394 I'm kind of curious to see if they have printed enough money to make equities and commodities buoyant in spite of worsening economic conditions. Aside from the dollar getting nuked, I have little idea about what's going to happen but I think the next month should be extremely enlightening as to where we go from here. I’m kind of curious to see if they have printed enough money to make equities and commodities buoyant in spite of worsening economic conditions. Aside from the dollar getting nuked, I have little idea about what’s going to happen but I think the next month should be extremely enlightening as to where we go from here.

]]> By: CNBC Sucks http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/the-more-you-dig-into-the-numbers-the-worse-they-get/comment-page-2/#comment-222335 CNBC Sucks Sat, 03 Oct 2009 22:38:55 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=40054#comment-222335 cvienne, TRADE PROPOSAL ALERT TO YOU. I changed my choice regarding Choice. I had to. If you accept, try to get it approved quickly by the commissioner. cvienne, TRADE PROPOSAL ALERT TO YOU. I changed my choice regarding Choice. I had to. If you accept, try to get it approved quickly by the commissioner.

]]> By: schmoo http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/the-more-you-dig-into-the-numbers-the-worse-they-get/comment-page-2/#comment-222330 schmoo Sat, 03 Oct 2009 22:09:33 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=40054#comment-222330 (sorry for the repost. I posted this in the comments of the wrong BR post) cvienne, your comments on the difficulty of the entrepreneur breaking in these days reminded me of this: “Remember the old adage ‘what’s good for GM is good for America’? That’s no longer the case. Success with money is intimately connected with inflation – people have got rich not through productive, wealth-creating activity, but because they bought a house or stocks at a time when general asset prices were rising. But what’s good for Warren Buffett is not necessarily good for the rest of us. Turroni wrote about the new business leaders who “became rich not with the general rise in prosperity but with the increase in the poverty of the people”. In a similar vein, the US may have become a plutocracy over the last eight years. And you have Buffett financially backing the Democrats. Could it be that the uber-rich are attempting to build moats around their castles in order to secure their fortune?” - “Why are billionaires voting for Obama and backing Brown?” By Hugh Hendry Nov 28, 2008 http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/why-are-billionaires-voting-for-obama-and-backing-brown-14178.aspx (sorry for the repost. I posted this in the comments of the wrong BR post)

cvienne, your comments on the difficulty of the entrepreneur breaking in these days reminded me of this:

“Remember the old adage ‘what’s good for GM is good for America’? That’s no longer the case. Success with money is intimately connected with inflation – people have got rich not through productive, wealth-creating activity, but because they bought a house or stocks at a time when general asset prices were rising. But what’s good for Warren Buffett is not necessarily good for the rest of us. Turroni wrote about the new business leaders who “became rich not with the general rise in prosperity but with the increase in the poverty of the people”. In a similar vein, the US may have become a plutocracy over the last eight years. And you have Buffett financially backing the Democrats. Could it be that the uber-rich are attempting to build moats around their castles in order to secure their fortune?”

- “Why are billionaires voting for Obama and backing Brown?” By Hugh Hendry Nov 28, 2008

http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/why-are-billionaires-voting-for-obama-and-backing-brown-14178.aspx

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