Comments on: The Unemployment Dilemma http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/the-unemployment-dilemma/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Mon, 22 Mar 2010 07:28:40 -0400 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: alfred e http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/the-unemployment-dilemma/comment-page-1/#comment-222870 alfred e Tue, 06 Oct 2009 01:11:25 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=40215#comment-222870 Getting in late. Was in Beijing just a few years back. Wanting to practice my Chinese. They wanted to practice their English. Timing. China and India are completely and totally alike. Hot spots. Money. Poverty. The Chinese try to keep the rurals out of their cities, trying to save them for the "elites" and "techno-elites". Racism? Try being Mongolian. My sense is governments now feel like they have the required technology to PROTECT these hot spots and let the rest of the country rot. Just like us. Getting in late. Was in Beijing just a few years back. Wanting to practice my Chinese.

They wanted to practice their English. Timing.

China and India are completely and totally alike. Hot spots. Money. Poverty.

The Chinese try to keep the rurals out of their cities, trying to save them for the “elites” and “techno-elites”. Racism? Try being Mongolian.

My sense is governments now feel like they have the required technology to PROTECT these hot spots and let the rest of the country rot.

Just like us.

]]> By: How the Common Man Sees It http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/the-unemployment-dilemma/comment-page-1/#comment-222857 How the Common Man Sees It Mon, 05 Oct 2009 23:54:41 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=40215#comment-222857 <i>IOW, 145 million 2007 jobs convert to only 123 million 1949 jobs. This is an over-simplification to the extent that many people are content with part-time work. But there is certainly reason to believe that many people classified as employed would be very happy to have more hours available.</i> They are probably too busy commuting between two part time jobs to work the extra hours IOW, 145 million 2007 jobs convert to only 123 million 1949 jobs. This is an over-simplification to the extent that many people are content with part-time work. But there is certainly reason to believe that many people classified as employed would be very happy to have more hours available.

They are probably too busy commuting between two part time jobs to work the extra hours

]]> By: constantnormal http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/the-unemployment-dilemma/comment-page-1/#comment-222826 constantnormal Mon, 05 Oct 2009 21:28:58 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=40215#comment-222826 That last chart seems overly optimistic to me ... I see no reason to assume that we will see a sharp "knee" upward starting in March of 2010, and instead expect a period of mushiness over the summer of 2010, with a very gently upwardly-sloping employment (less-bad unemployment) proceeding from there. Until we get rid of our excess of debt, the economy is not going to be able to bounce back in any way similar to past recoveries. The idea behind a recession is that the bad stuff gets washed away, freeing the economy to soar once more. This time we have held onto the stuff that shoulda been washed away with a death-grip. No dumping of the toxic ballast, no energetic recovery. That last chart seems overly optimistic to me … I see no reason to assume that we will see a sharp “knee” upward starting in March of 2010, and instead expect a period of mushiness over the summer of 2010, with a very gently upwardly-sloping employment (less-bad unemployment) proceeding from there. Until we get rid of our excess of debt, the economy is not going to be able to bounce back in any way similar to past recoveries.

The idea behind a recession is that the bad stuff gets washed away, freeing the economy to soar once more. This time we have held onto the stuff that shoulda been washed away with a death-grip. No dumping of the toxic ballast, no energetic recovery.

]]> By: leftback http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/the-unemployment-dilemma/comment-page-1/#comment-222811 leftback Mon, 05 Oct 2009 20:36:30 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=40215#comment-222811 XLF may, or may not, constitute a perfect short again after today's GS sponsored rally.... Retail sales tomorrow. Oil/gold/silver rallied today, because traders bought the front month contract. :-) I refuse to try to explain this market in macro terms when "it went up" explains it much better. Glad I wasn't short today. Put some positions on into the close. XLF may, or may not, constitute a perfect short again after today’s GS sponsored rally….

Retail sales tomorrow. Oil/gold/silver rallied today, because traders bought the front month contract. :-)
I refuse to try to explain this market in macro terms when “it went up” explains it much better.

Glad I wasn’t short today. Put some positions on into the close.

]]> By: Whammer http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/the-unemployment-dilemma/comment-page-1/#comment-222801 Whammer Mon, 05 Oct 2009 20:13:12 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=40215#comment-222801 @manhattanguy, I tend to think the "Here's where new MBA grads are going" stories are even more reliable than magazine cover indicators ;-). Every new MBA was trying to get a dot com job in 1999/2000........ Nowadays, things are a bit different, especially since US companies aren't hiring that much, and especially the IBs are not providing the usual "landing spot" for new MBAs. @manhattanguy,

I tend to think the “Here’s where new MBA grads are going” stories are even more reliable than magazine cover indicators ;-) .

Every new MBA was trying to get a dot com job in 1999/2000……..

Nowadays, things are a bit different, especially since US companies aren’t hiring that much, and especially the IBs are not providing the usual “landing spot” for new MBAs.

]]> By: Bruce in Tn http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/the-unemployment-dilemma/comment-page-1/#comment-222791 Bruce in Tn Mon, 05 Oct 2009 19:43:29 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=40215#comment-222791 Thanks.....that is what I like about this blog... Thanks…..that is what I like about this blog…

]]> By: Mannwich http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/the-unemployment-dilemma/comment-page-1/#comment-222790 Mannwich Mon, 05 Oct 2009 19:39:17 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=40215#comment-222790 @manhattan: No worries. Sorry I jumped on you a bit. I can definitely see your point of view on this one. I just think it's going to play out on a bit longer timeframe than we think it will, but I'm certainly open to changing my mind.....AGAIN. @manhattan: No worries. Sorry I jumped on you a bit. I can definitely see your point of view on this one. I just think it’s going to play out on a bit longer timeframe than we think it will, but I’m certainly open to changing my mind…..AGAIN.

]]> By: manhattanguy http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/the-unemployment-dilemma/comment-page-1/#comment-222788 manhattanguy Mon, 05 Oct 2009 19:36:57 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=40215#comment-222788 "in fact, I used to think like you on this issue, but have changed my mind in recent months" we just see things differently. No worries. I wasn't referring to you in that post btw. “in fact, I used to think like you on this issue, but have changed my mind in recent months”

we just see things differently. No worries. I wasn’t referring to you in that post btw.

]]> By: Mannwich http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/the-unemployment-dilemma/comment-page-1/#comment-222782 Mannwich Mon, 05 Oct 2009 19:31:10 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=40215#comment-222782 @manhattan: We "don't get it" because we don't agree with you? I'm not entirely sure that I'm right (in fact, I used to think like you on this issue, but have changed my mind in recent months), but how can you be SO SURE that you're definitely right here? Seriously...... @manhattan: We “don’t get it” because we don’t agree with you? I’m not entirely sure that I’m right (in fact, I used to think like you on this issue, but have changed my mind in recent months), but how can you be SO SURE that you’re definitely right here? Seriously……

]]> By: manhattanguy http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/the-unemployment-dilemma/comment-page-1/#comment-222781 manhattanguy Mon, 05 Oct 2009 19:29:20 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=40215#comment-222781 @Bruce in Tn - don't waste your breath arguing about this. I already tried a few days ago. Some just don't get it. period. Ask where the new MBA graduates are going for job opportunities. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/11/business/economy/11expats.html @Bruce in Tn – don’t waste your breath arguing about this. I already tried a few days ago. Some just don’t get it. period. Ask where the new MBA graduates are going for job opportunities.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/11/business/economy/11expats.html

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