Unemployment Charts (Not Pretty)
By Barry Ritholtz - October 2nd, 2009, 9:29AM
A few charts from Jake highlight the weakness in the Labor Market:
The broadest measure of Unemployment has now hit 17%
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click for larger chart
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We continue to see hours worked look pretty ugly — this is not a positive sign, as it is a leading component of NFP.
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Lastly, I really like weird optical illusion with this one — it does not look like the X axis is perfectly horizontal . . .
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Markets are about to open — gotta jump . . .
October 2nd, 2009 at 9:32 am
The first chart looks like it is beginning to enter a topping process. How long this will take is anyone’s guess. At this point, how much worse is unemployment really going to get?
The bent X-axis illusion is indicative of why we gewt bounce backs off huge overdone readings. No matter what data we are talking about…
October 2nd, 2009 at 9:43 am
Vertical!
October 2nd, 2009 at 9:50 am
all ugly- that first chart- WOW-
the real deal is 17%
October 2nd, 2009 at 9:57 am
Looks fantastic. Mini-economic boom is here. Or so I was told just a couple of days ago.
October 2nd, 2009 at 9:58 am
I don’t know what a bent X-axis illusion looks like, but I do know that the days of illusion (a.k.a: BS regarding our never-ending growth and prosperity) are over. I don’t do TA and I’m not a chartist (for predictive purposes), it does seem, however, as if we are literally in uncharted territory. Reality is not governed by paradigms.
October 2nd, 2009 at 10:09 am
Actually CR says we are now “red lining”
The record is ours alone…
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/SsXzzDSUSqI/AAAAAAAAGfM/PWX-2daRZ0w/s1600-h/EmploymentJobLossesRecessions.jpg
Charting is so much fun…
October 2nd, 2009 at 10:14 am
From the household survey:
* The 15.1 million unemployed is greater than the population of all but four states.
* U.S. unemployment rate: 9.8%, seasonally adjusted, the highest since 1983
* The broader unemployment rate, or “U-6”, which includes discouraged workers and those involuntarily working part-time: 17%
* Total number of unemployed: 15.1 million (from 7.6 million at the start of the recession in December 2007)
* Unemployment rate among major groups (not seasonally adjusted):
Teenagers: 25.9%
Blacks: 15.4%
Hispanics: 12.7%
Adult men: 10.3%
Whites: 9%
Adult women: 7.8%
Asians: 7.4%
* The average duration of unemployment rose to 26.2 weeks, from 24.9 in August; the median duration rose to 17.3 weeks, from 15.4 in August.
* The percent of long-term unemployed (27 weeks or more), rose to 35.6% of those unemployed, from 33.3% in August.
From the establishment survey:
* Nonfarm payroll employment declined by 263,000 in September (for a decline of 7.2 million total since the recession began)
* Employment declines by sector (overall, goods-producing dropped by 116,000 in September, while service-providing declined by 147,000):
Construction: -64,000
Government: -53,000
Manufacturing: -51,000
Retail: -39,000
Professional & business services: -8,000
Health care: +19,000
October 2nd, 2009 at 10:17 am
I thought everything was perfect?!?
October 2nd, 2009 at 10:17 am
benchmark revision preview.. total emploment levels through march 09 now being revised down by 824k.
October 2nd, 2009 at 10:31 am
Ouch, VT!
October 2nd, 2009 at 10:38 am
broader unemployment chart shows that the last recovery from the last recession…want
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_8rpY5fQK-UQ/SsX23uZ-utI/AAAAAAAAIHA/GXLbz4XFE9A/s1600-h/Unemp.png
October 2nd, 2009 at 10:39 am
unit labor costs
http://economistsview.typepad.com/.a/6a00d83451b33869e20120a60b294e970c-popup
October 2nd, 2009 at 10:41 am
This whole recession is about jobs. Bush didn’t know the word. Obama knows the word, he just doesn’t understand what it means and the importance of it.
October 2nd, 2009 at 10:47 am
total employment
http://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cesbtab1.htm
Employment Growth Summary, 1992-2009
(Thousands) *
December 1992 ( 109,415)
December 2000 ( 132,485)
December 2008 ( 135,074)
September 2009 (130,947)
October 2nd, 2009 at 10:56 am
That is a weird illusion, eh? I had to scroll the line to the bottom of my screen to check that it was indeed exactly horizontal and not drooping to the right. Fascinating.
October 2nd, 2009 at 10:58 am
Looks almost as if the sheer weight of the bars at the end is pulling the whole thing down. Kind of appropo when you think about it.
October 2nd, 2009 at 10:59 am
Bruce
Yeah that chart from CR is a scary one. Plunging into the depths with barely a second derivative improvement.
October 2nd, 2009 at 11:01 am
If I were the x-axis, being used to report data like that, I think I’d drooping, too.
seems like the .6x Economy is, still, the target.
October 2nd, 2009 at 11:26 am
Does the increase in “not in labor force” mean that the labor force is shrinking? Or are those the newborns?
October 2nd, 2009 at 11:38 am
@Pete
Yes, it means it’s shrinking. It went down by 571K. Still that ~1% is misleading because 571K is only about 0.4% of the total labor force. The number “not in labor force” is not the denominator in unemployment.
Btw a monthly shrinkage of 500K is not unheard of. I looked at the data for the past 10 years and the labor force seems to be changing (often growing by 500K) every month by quite a bit.
October 2nd, 2009 at 11:51 am
http://briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/employ.htm
“Key Factors
•The employment report came in well worse than expected in September.
•The unemployment rate is very misleading. The civilian labor force declined 571,000 in September compared to an increase in the labor force of 73,000 in August. If the labor force held steady in September, the unemployment rate would have increased to 10.2%!
The drop in hours worked and the lack of a strong increase in pay pushed weekly earnings down 0.2% and will lead to lower consumption from people that have maintained their jobs over the last month.”
…And this analysis is from Briefing.com, that, frankly I thought used to be somewhat of a cheerleader in January and February….not any longer…
B in T
October 2nd, 2009 at 11:54 am
Green shoots advocates didn’t factor in what is going on with state and local government layoffs. It’s all connected…. the upcoming “hand-me-down” Christmas isn’t going to please the retailers.
October 2nd, 2009 at 12:01 pm
You know it is bad when the weight of the negative bars appears to pull downs the x-axis. Looks like of like the eves on my 50 year old house.
October 2nd, 2009 at 12:05 pm
leftback
I wonder how many “look honey, I bought you a Lexus” commercials we gonna see this year.
Still, I’m sure people won’t be able to resist buying I-phones for their 14 year olds, with a CC obviously.
October 2nd, 2009 at 12:21 pm
@beaufou: Maybe the commerical will just be tweaked a bit – “look honey, I bought you a used, repo’d Lexus”.
October 2nd, 2009 at 12:23 pm
Now that’s more like it.
October 2nd, 2009 at 12:48 pm
Unemployment around 14% as measured pre early 1990s forward changes
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2009/10/true-september-unemployment-in-america.html
I hate to be Truthy as Colbert would say…
October 2nd, 2009 at 1:15 pm
The job market is not good. It’s even worse if you’re 55 or older. No one even wants to talk to you. It is going to be a long while before the job market picks up again.
October 2nd, 2009 at 1:40 pm
Our architectural firm has been telling us all year to take Paid Time Off as much as possible.
The office is half empty today- I’d say we’re all down to 32 HPW.
October 2nd, 2009 at 1:41 pm
Mish throws in some comments about the ever-popular B/D adjustment fudge factor:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/10/huge-downward-jobs-revisions-coming.html
October 2nd, 2009 at 3:58 pm
@Kelly Evans – Nicely done summarization. This is how I’d like to see the data in MSM reports.
If you squint your eyes at that declining x-axis, it straightens out. Definitely a weird illusion though.
For day by day layoff’s, plant closings, etc, see:
http://www.dailyjobcuts.com/
October 2nd, 2009 at 9:03 pm
The first graph reminds me of the roller coaster at Cedar Park in Ohio. It could make you puke, so could the graph.
October 3rd, 2009 at 3:07 am
Vertical Unemployment chart… can’t grow to the sky can it?