Updated earnings cheat sheet
Here is an update from my earnings and revenue cheat sheet and the trends still remain similar to Q2 in that most companies are beating eps estimates while slightly more than half are beating revenue forecasts. The relative positive though is the amount of the beats are exceeding what was seen in Q2. I have 83% of companies beating eps estimates and 59% exceeding revenue estimates. In Q2 it was closer to 75% beating eps expectations with about half beating revenue estimates. The bigger rally in stocks from mid to July thru earnings season relative to what we’ve seen so far in response to Q3 was mostly due to the backdrop of a 7% fall from mid June heading into Q2 earnings reports in July that set the bar low. Also, there was more investor surprise to the Q2 earnings beats than there is so far for Q3, notwithstanding the statistical beats to estimates.
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October 20th, 2009 at 1:53 pm
Why is there so much emphasis on analyst’s estimates? Aren’t these just somewhat “educated” guesses? Don’t these people get paid by the companies that sell securities? Is that why the bar is increasingly “laid on the ground” to “beat”? How about something new and unique like, “Did the company make a profit or a loss? Was it larger or smaller than last quarter/year?” And let’s compensate according to this performance for a change.
October 20th, 2009 at 7:32 pm
[...] stock is beating their earnings estimates for the 2nd quarter. According to Peter Boockvar, his earnings cheat sheet shows about 83% of companies beating their earnings estimates in Q3. Granted the expectations are lower than previously thought, but does anyone find it amazing the [...]