Comments on: Who Believes China’s ‘Bernie Madoff’ Data? http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/who-believes-chinas-bernie-madoff-data/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Tue, 14 Feb 2012 22:30:38 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.5 By: China is the Next Goldilocks Economy to Fall http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/who-believes-chinas-bernie-madoff-data/comment-page-1/#comment-238010 China is the Next Goldilocks Economy to Fall Sun, 29 Nov 2009 17:16:27 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=41926#comment-238010 [...] the problem lies in our fantasies about China, not our bitches about the US. Barry Ritzholz first laughed off the bogus Chinese stats, but now he is not so sure: “China expert Gordon G. Chang (author of [...] [...] the problem lies in our fantasies about China, not our bitches about the US. Barry Ritzholz first laughed off the bogus Chinese stats, but now he is not so sure: “China expert Gordon G. Chang (author of [...]

]]> By: More on China’s Faux GDP Data | The Big Picture http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/who-believes-chinas-bernie-madoff-data/comment-page-1/#comment-235846 More on China’s Faux GDP Data | The Big Picture Thu, 19 Nov 2009 19:02:00 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=41926#comment-235846 [...] in October, I laughed off the latest China GDP data as utterly [...] [...] in October, I laughed off the latest China GDP data as utterly [...]

]]> By: ga082003 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/who-believes-chinas-bernie-madoff-data/comment-page-1/#comment-228725 ga082003 Fri, 23 Oct 2009 13:47:32 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=41926#comment-228725 Thats my point. I still remember right through the last bull run and the bear market, chinese data has been questioned. Now again 4 years hence, US analyst still question the data. The problem is that we are simply unable to digest that China can rise without US help. It will ultimately prove to be US greatest enemy. Well if there is one data that is probably unquestioned by US analysts, it has to be surplus that China has. Roughly $3 trillion? There is no opaqueness about it. Now that is more than their GDP itself. A little spending of that over the years shouldnt it by simple arithmetic push the GDP at a fast clip ? Infact 8% looks slow to me if they have that much cash to spend instead of investing into the worst possible asset which the US Dollar. Now lets come across the ocean to US: Instead of a surplus, US has a fiscal deficit of 1.5 trillion. Government debt of 11trillion which is equal to US GDP. So all the massaging we see is in US and less so in China. So that is a simple macro picture. I expect the Chinese to grow at 9% irrespective of their opaqueness about it. They dont need to explain that they have the largest cash to spend and hence they will be the fastest to grow. But I do not like communism and hence the hate the fact that there is a live case of most successful communist govt. Thats my point. I still remember right through the last bull run and the bear market, chinese data has been questioned. Now again 4 years hence, US analyst still question the data. The problem is that we are simply unable to digest that China can rise without US help. It will ultimately prove to be US greatest enemy.

Well if there is one data that is probably unquestioned by US analysts, it has to be surplus that China has. Roughly $3 trillion? There is no opaqueness about it. Now that is more than their GDP itself. A little spending of that over the years shouldnt it by simple arithmetic push the GDP at a fast clip ? Infact 8% looks slow to me if they have that much cash to spend instead of investing into the worst possible asset which the US Dollar.

Now lets come across the ocean to US: Instead of a surplus, US has a fiscal deficit of 1.5 trillion. Government debt of 11trillion which is equal to US GDP. So all the massaging we see is in US and less so in China.

So that is a simple macro picture. I expect the Chinese to grow at 9% irrespective of their opaqueness about it. They dont need to explain that they have the largest cash to spend and hence they will be the fastest to grow.

But I do not like communism and hence the hate the fact that there is a live case of most successful communist govt.

]]> By: ga082003 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/who-believes-chinas-bernie-madoff-data/comment-page-1/#comment-228679 ga082003 Fri, 23 Oct 2009 04:19:57 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=41926#comment-228679 Barry. Have you been to china? I have and looking at the activity that I see there, I can assure you that china is cruising. You only have to speak to a few middle class chinese and you will understand the diff between US and china. It is not country that is leveraged neither at the government nor at household level. China is a country on the ascent while US is a country on the descent. Now it is not easy to accept that Truth easily. Is it? So the best is to mock the country. Am not american nor chinese but just a financial analyst who has seen both sides of the story and the scales are tipped overwhelmingly in favor of the chinese. At least for the next 10 years. What is more? The Great American Superpower is actually on a tight leash by the chinese (read borrowed debt). Then the story of Japanese who have been a slave to US and now that is changing. Read today newspaper and you will know what I am talking, courtesy the Chinese foreign policy starting to take away american friends. I will once again say this: Obama will lead this country down the cliff forever. He is too buzy writing books, making ppt for Olympic bids, resolving neighbor hood fights and winning undeserved prizes. He is simply incapable of leading a nation (maybe some college debating team) and at the end of day he is a Harvard graduate. So the data released 8% growth may vary with a few bips here and there. But it is certanly not 1% (US growth). Whats more the Growth is not driven by faulty greed based GDP (read Investment banking and *innovative* bull crap financial products which somehow in 2005-2008 figured out a way to give credit to a guy who has no income). So if you argue that chinese GDP number look madoff then the other way to look at it is that US GDP full of madoff. :) So china has worked hard at what it is good at (low priced and low quality goods) and now it is rising so fast that people like you and others in US are shell shocked. But as an analyst let me also advice, we have not seen the real crisis yet. Wait for the Bank Run in US which will get the country on its knees. It is waiting to happen. Till the country is owned by the Rockfellars, there is no chance this country can rise. Infact they are very much at this point selling the nation naked through their primary agent FED and you are guys are still debating whether to audit the FED :) Sorry to have burst the bubble but China is growing at a pace which for most of us unbelievable but my suggestion: Visit the country to get the true picture and more importantly look within the US GDP in a lil more depth and you will see the hollowness fresbee ~~~ <strong>BR</strong>: These are not incompatible events, comrade. Yes, China is cruising -- but it is a centrally planned government without a free press, and the official data has always been questionable. Barry.
Have you been to china? I have and looking at the activity that I see there, I can assure you that china is cruising. You only have to speak to a few middle class chinese and you will understand the diff between US and china. It is not country that is leveraged neither at the government nor at household level. China is a country on the ascent while US is a country on the descent. Now it is not easy to accept that Truth easily. Is it? So the best is to mock the country.

Am not american nor chinese but just a financial analyst who has seen both sides of the story and the scales are tipped overwhelmingly in favor of the chinese. At least for the next 10 years. What is more? The Great American Superpower is actually on a tight leash by the chinese (read borrowed debt). Then the story of Japanese who have been a slave to US and now that is changing. Read today newspaper and you will know what I am talking, courtesy the Chinese foreign policy starting to take away american friends. I will once again say this: Obama will lead this country down the cliff forever. He is too buzy writing books, making ppt for Olympic bids, resolving neighbor hood fights and winning undeserved prizes. He is simply incapable of leading a nation (maybe some college debating team) and at the end of day he is a Harvard graduate.

So the data released 8% growth may vary with a few bips here and there. But it is certanly not 1% (US growth). Whats more the Growth is not driven by faulty greed based GDP (read Investment banking and *innovative* bull crap financial products which somehow in 2005-2008 figured out a way to give credit to a guy who has no income). So if you argue that chinese GDP number look madoff then the other way to look at it is that US GDP full of madoff. :)

So china has worked hard at what it is good at (low priced and low quality goods) and now it is rising so fast that people like you and others in US are shell shocked. But as an analyst let me also advice, we have not seen the real crisis yet. Wait for the Bank Run in US which will get the country on its knees. It is waiting to happen. Till the country is owned by the Rockfellars, there is no chance this country can rise.
Infact they are very much at this point selling the nation naked through their primary agent FED and you are guys are still debating whether to audit the FED :)

Sorry to have burst the bubble but China is growing at a pace which for most of us unbelievable but my suggestion: Visit the country to get the true picture and more importantly look within the US GDP in a lil more depth and you will see the hollowness
fresbee

~~~

BR: These are not incompatible events, comrade.

Yes, China is cruising — but it is a centrally planned government without a free press, and the official data has always been questionable.

]]> By: Pierre http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/who-believes-chinas-bernie-madoff-data/comment-page-1/#comment-228669 Pierre Fri, 23 Oct 2009 02:40:34 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=41926#comment-228669 i like you again. yes all fake but they have no choices. the world is waiting for fake. let's imagine they come to tell the truth and say it doesn't work. hoho... and this was a stimulus for 1/5 or 1/10 of the population. anyway the trouble is not in this stimulus. the trouble is in what will they do with there talibanism moving from Pakistan or checking west China. Check google map there are NO borders there. i like you again. yes all fake but they have no choices. the world is waiting for fake. let’s imagine they come to tell the truth and say it doesn’t work. hoho…
and this was a stimulus for 1/5 or 1/10 of the population.

anyway the trouble is not in this stimulus. the trouble is in what will they do with there talibanism moving from Pakistan or checking west China. Check google map there are NO borders there.

]]> By: wally http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/who-believes-chinas-bernie-madoff-data/comment-page-1/#comment-228555 wally Thu, 22 Oct 2009 19:13:27 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=41926#comment-228555 I've read estimates that the total Chinese stimulus amounts to 15 to 17 percent of GDP. So, if reported GDP growth is 9 percent, the growth without stimulus is negative, and strongly so. Just as in the US, of course, we still count it as growth even if it is stimulus. However, what neither country seems to do is balance out the ledger - stimulus comes at a price... always ignored or talked away. I’ve read estimates that the total Chinese stimulus amounts to 15 to 17 percent of GDP. So, if reported GDP growth is 9 percent, the growth without stimulus is negative, and strongly so. Just as in the US, of course, we still count it as growth even if it is stimulus.
However, what neither country seems to do is balance out the ledger – stimulus comes at a price… always ignored or talked away.

]]> By: datodato http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/who-believes-chinas-bernie-madoff-data/comment-page-1/#comment-228552 datodato Thu, 22 Oct 2009 19:00:24 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=41926#comment-228552 I guess if you want to believe or disbelieve something, you might want to spend some time in that country (aka. China), right? Of course, every government massages their data, but the fundamental truth is who is on the rise. I spent 14 years in US, so, as of today, I can say that I know the very problem of US because I talk with ordinary people and don't believe any government data. If you don't believe the Chinese miracle, I just give you an example: 14 years ago, in China, my family of 5 (my parents, sister, grandma, and myself) lived in a 700sqft shitty apartment (2.5 bedroom and 1 bath) with no air-conditioner and no heater, where the temperature there could be from 100 in summer and -5F in the winter. Now, my sister and her husband live in a 2700 sqft luxury town home with no mortgage. My parents, who retired 5 years ago, live in a 2500 sqft brand-new apartment also with no mortgage. Yes, in US, my house is much better with 3700 sqft, but with mortgage. We are just ordinary family working hard and climbing the socital ladder. So, the bottom line is: we believe that China is on the rise from what we are feeling very day, not some artificial data. If you go on US street and talk with ordinary people, you will know the situation better than the government data. I guess if you want to believe or disbelieve something, you might want to spend some time in that country (aka. China), right? Of course, every government massages their data, but the fundamental truth is who is on the rise. I spent 14 years in US, so, as of today, I can say that I know the very problem of US because I talk with ordinary people and don’t believe any government data. If you don’t believe the Chinese miracle, I just give you an example: 14 years ago, in China, my family of 5 (my parents, sister, grandma, and myself) lived in a 700sqft shitty apartment (2.5 bedroom and 1 bath) with no air-conditioner and no heater, where the temperature there could be from 100 in summer and -5F in the winter. Now, my sister and her husband live in a 2700 sqft luxury town home with no mortgage. My parents, who retired 5 years ago, live in a 2500 sqft brand-new apartment also with no mortgage. Yes, in US, my house is much better with 3700 sqft, but with mortgage. We are just ordinary family working hard and climbing the socital ladder. So, the bottom line is: we believe that China is on the rise from what we are feeling very day, not some artificial data. If you go on US street and talk with ordinary people, you will know the situation better than the government data.

]]> By: M.G. in Progress http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/who-believes-chinas-bernie-madoff-data/comment-page-1/#comment-228530 M.G. in Progress Thu, 22 Oct 2009 17:06:01 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=41926#comment-228530 "Lies, damned lies, and statistics" . But who cares? It's our Viagra economics which makes it bigger enlarging GDP... “Lies, damned lies, and statistics” . But who cares? It’s our Viagra economics which makes it bigger enlarging GDP…

]]> By: CNBC Sucks http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/who-believes-chinas-bernie-madoff-data/comment-page-1/#comment-228499 CNBC Sucks Thu, 22 Oct 2009 16:13:46 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=41926#comment-228499 @ Jeff (Mannwich): 1. Gutsy call on your part picking up Maroney, but then you didn't really have much choice. I picked up your old 7th round draft pick Jonathan Stewart over Maroney because you never know what Belichick is up to with running back injuries. Even though I dropped Sammy Morris and he did not practice yesterday, you just never know if Morris might show up out of the Patriot blue at Wembley. I did think about picking up Maroney (he was just sitting there after waivers cleared) in addition to Stewart just to LOCK YOU OUT of viable running backs. However, I did not do so...not because we are friends or because I like to play fair, but because I am running out of waiver moves. 2. Just remember: A victory for The Great CNBC Sucks is a victory for everybody...for the entire world even. Also, you might want The Great CNBC Sucks to beat you because if I make the playoffs, I would be the weakest team. I have injured and underperforming running backs with horrible Week 15 and 16 matchups. Mannwich, I think you are very safe for a Ritholtz FF league playoff berth with your roster, and it might not be a bad idea for a STRATEGIC DEFEAT here and there to shape the playoff brackets, beginning with our matchup this weekend. You definitely WANT to beat ahab, cvienne, and Andy, but I think you and CFA should try your best to get Ben and myself in the final dance. We would be easy pickings in the playoffs. You know I am right; lose to me this week. The Great CNBC Sucks PS: If you beat me this weekend and I don't make the playoffs, and you wind up losing to ahab, cvienne, or Andy in the playoffs, don't say I didn't give you proper advice. @ Jeff (Mannwich):

1. Gutsy call on your part picking up Maroney, but then you didn’t really have much choice. I picked up your old 7th round draft pick Jonathan Stewart over Maroney because you never know what Belichick is up to with running back injuries. Even though I dropped Sammy Morris and he did not practice yesterday, you just never know if Morris might show up out of the Patriot blue at Wembley. I did think about picking up Maroney (he was just sitting there after waivers cleared) in addition to Stewart just to LOCK YOU OUT of viable running backs. However, I did not do so…not because we are friends or because I like to play fair, but because I am running out of waiver moves.

2. Just remember: A victory for The Great CNBC Sucks is a victory for everybody…for the entire world even. Also, you might want The Great CNBC Sucks to beat you because if I make the playoffs, I would be the weakest team. I have injured and underperforming running backs with horrible Week 15 and 16 matchups.

Mannwich, I think you are very safe for a Ritholtz FF league playoff berth with your roster, and it might not be a bad idea for a STRATEGIC DEFEAT here and there to shape the playoff brackets, beginning with our matchup this weekend. You definitely WANT to beat ahab, cvienne, and Andy, but I think you and CFA should try your best to get Ben and myself in the final dance. We would be easy pickings in the playoffs. You know I am right; lose to me this week.

The Great CNBC Sucks

PS: If you beat me this weekend and I don’t make the playoffs, and you wind up losing to ahab, cvienne, or Andy in the playoffs, don’t say I didn’t give you proper advice.

]]> By: How the Common Man Sees It http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/who-believes-chinas-bernie-madoff-data/comment-page-1/#comment-228486 How the Common Man Sees It Thu, 22 Oct 2009 15:53:30 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=41926#comment-228486 <i>By the way, 7,000 workers/day x 30 days is 210,000 workers. Add 210,000 to 5,923,000 and you get 6,133,000…. …math.</i> I guess that explains why you're a doctor then. Lucky guy By the way, 7,000 workers/day x 30 days is 210,000 workers. Add 210,000 to 5,923,000 and you get 6,133,000….

…math.

I guess that explains why you’re a doctor then. Lucky guy

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