Asset allocation? Come on. That argument always strikes me as a weezle word excuse for advisers who can’t make good investment decisions. Are you getting too successful now to actually speak negatively on the market?

How exactly is asset allocation not timing the market?

But it all depends on where it will be months from now.

There is a way to profit through from the ups and downs of the stock markets: use timing signals to figure out when to get in and when to get out.

Consider http://invetrics.com

Its daily DJIA index trading signal is up a respectable 68% for the year (as of November 1, 2009) and it is free of charge for individual investors.

Actually, money is just a legal document and its value is measured by the power mad lunatic who is running the creation of it

So much to do, so little time… Many citizens can’t read and/or write. Many don’t comprehend what they read. Many don’t have the discretionary funds available for this purpose. These are just a few of the reasons why this doesn’t work for many average Americans.

Asset Allocation (with re-balancing)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asset_allocation

… sure Bush destroyed the dollar from ’00 ’til he left, but “The Dow measured in gold” could be recast as the DOW measured in EEM, VWO, VGK, VPL VBR etc.. etc… not only GLD, got it now?

Good point, though I wonder if you won’t see a disconnect between equities/bonds/CRE and commodities/PMs (excluding energy) when the s&*t hits the fan part deux.

The timing of this article is certainly interesting, are we to believe based on a 10 year average p/e that one shouldn’t bother to mention we’ve had a 60% rally might want to be a little cautious with new buys? I’m not sure how the E is considered either. In 2002 S&P changed the basis of its earnings reports to “operating earnings” making the p/e ratio ever since about half of what it really is yet we just compare away like nothing every happened. It was obvious then, as it is now, that companies didn’t want to report any bad news.

Remember This Chart?

You might also consider the massive credit expansion and what it does to the E over this 10 year trailing period. Look at any meaningful measure of the health of the economy, it doesn’t look better.

Grantham stated that stocks were undervalued in the spring of this year really for the first time in about 20 years. I suppose in buying this p/e NYT argument you’d also have to believe that investors are rationale for having bought so quickly at those levels. I’d love to hear the justification for labeling market participants rationale especially in the face of the largest credit deflation we have seen in decades.

I find P/E ratio to generally be of little value in determining when to buy and sell equities, it’s great that compared to 99 it looks like a better “value” but that still tells you nothing of the next 10 years.